The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[ohio]

22 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Despite finding at least temporary support in the latter two trading days of last week, the market, as I expected it to, had a pretty bad week. The range of losses was from 1.4% on small caps represented by the Russell 2000 to 2.2% on the DOW. The NASDAQ lost over 2%. Over the course of the week, my positions in the 40 PUT contracts gained approximately $5,600. At the close of business Friday, their market value was $54,690 on a cost basis of $47,579.82, for an unrealized gain of $7,110.18. More specifically, the SPY Puts showed a gain of $2,557.59 while the QQQ Puts were up $4,552.59. 

The rebound on Thursday, seemed relatively tepid to me. Therefore, I was not surprised that Friday, the indices closed mixed with the NASDAQ indices losing ground, though the other indices were up. In fact, the averages seemed about to rollover at about 12:35. However, at this time, news came out from Trump Administration sources that a trade deal with the Chinese seemed more likely than not as the Chinese wanted to do one. Why anyone sane would give a shred of credibility to any such information from the current administration is beyond me. In fact I was tempted to go further short on the news. However, risk management is a critical component of what I do, so I did not. 

As we go into the week of Thanksgiving, bulls can find solace in the fact that this has historically been one of the most positive weeks on the calendar historically. However, I have a feeling it will be more like November 2007 and 2008 than the norm. So, here is my plan. If the averages rally into Thanksgiving, I will add another 8 to 10 contracts to my existing positions. Yes, I feel that strongly that December will be a bad month. However, if I am right, and this upcoming week is blah to negative, then I will sit tight on my existing shorts.  

Nice write up and analysis.  Glad to see you are up on your shorts.  Hope you get an early Christmas present this year.

This week could be interesting.  If the Chinese concede to a trade agreement, then the markets could jump higher.  With the fall of their markets and that they sell more to us than we do to them, it would be in their best interest to negotiate.

Looking to sell UGAZ  today.  It's up sharply again this morning, again.  But if it starts to turn then I'll get out. Hopefully for a really nice gain.   Intend to keep UCO as oil is too low, plus the Saudis may be under pressure with the assassination.

Other than those two stocks, I'm thinking of staying out of the market this week, as I'm not sure what to buy.  The only thing that I may jump into is TLRY if I see it take a hard dip or DGAZ if natural gas prices go up too much.

[DarterBlue]

9 minutes ago, ohio said:

Nice write up and analysis.  Glad to see you are up on your shorts.  Hope you get an early Christmas present this year.

This week could be interesting.  If the Chinese concede to a trade agreement, then the markets could jump higher.  With the fall of their markets and that they sell more to us than we do to them, it would be in their best interest to negotiate.

Looking to sell UGAZ  today.  It's up sharply again this morning, again.  But if it starts to turn then I'll get out. Hopefully for a really nice gain.   Intend to keep UCO as oil is too low, plus the Saudis may be under pressure with the assassination.

Other than those two stocks, I'm thinking of staying out of the market this week, as I'm not sure what to buy.  The only thing that I may jump into is TLRY if I see it take a hard dip or DGAZ if natural gas prices go up too much.

1. That is the conventional wisdom. But I am not totally there. If China was willing to change its domestic policy and pay their workers the value of their productivity, it would have a domestic market 3.7 times that of the USA market. And, it would not be selling its goods on "credit" to the USA which in the long run will probably never be able to repay them in a neutral currency or assets.

2. I agree it may be time to take profits if it is sharply up in premarket. 

3. TLRY seems to be one of your bread and butter trades as you seem to "know" at least to a degree when it is a good buy. So, I can't argue with you taking a position this week if the charts and price action warrant it. 

4. The only activity I see for me this week is possibly adding to my short positions if the market bounces more than a percent and a half. Of course, it sold off real hard, this is not likely, then I would have to assess whether I should book my profits. 

[ohio]

24 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

1. That is the conventional wisdom. But I am not totally there. If China was willing to change its domestic policy and pay their workers the value of their productivity, it would have a domestic market 3.7 times that of the USA market. And, it would not be selling its goods on "credit" to the USA which in the long run will probably never be able to repay them in a neutral currency or assets.

2. I agree it may be time to take profits if it is sharply up in premarket. 

3. TLRY seems to be one of your bread and butter trades as you seem to "know" at least to a degree when it is a good buy. So, I can't argue with you taking a position this week if the charts and price action warrant it. 

4. The only activity I see for me this week is possibly adding to my short positions if the market bounces more than a percent and a half. Of course, it sold off real hard, this is not likely, then I would have to assess whether I should book my profits. 

Sold all 1000 shares of UGAZ at an average of price of 170.17 in the premarket for a really nice profit.

Plan on doing some cleaning this morning and will go out with my girl friend as we both have the day off.

[DarterBlue]

19 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold all 1000 shares of UGAZ at an average of price of 170.17 in the premarket for a really nice profit.

Plan on doing some cleaning this morning and will go out with my girl friend as we both have the day off.

Enjoy the day. Good thing you sold. Whenever I have had a position that concerned me or that I was thinking of selling, it spoiled free time for me, as my mind would always drift to that position. 

[ohio]

6 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Enjoy the day. Good thing you sold. Whenever I have had a position that concerned me or that I was thinking of selling, it spoiled free time for me, as my mind would always drift to that position. 

The markets went down sharply today, so I'm glad that made some money as well.

Had a nice day today.  Finally got a chance to rake my leaves and clean up the backyard, then had lunch with my girl friend.

Bought 500 TLRY  at 103.84.  Will see what happens, since its up a little now.  Hopefully it will go up tomorrow.

Saw that UGAZ went up to 193 today.  So, a potential opportunity cost of 23 k.  Made the same mistake when I bought 1500 shares of TLRY on its IPO day for about $24 something, and sold it the next day for about 29 something.  As you know it hit a high of 300 this year.  So I have to force myself to hold on longer on winning positions.  However, in a way I am glad I sold it since the large amount did cause me some stress over the weekend.  So I guess it's a mixed blessing. 

 

[DarterBlue]

2 hours ago, ohio said:

The markets went down sharply today, so I'm glad that made some money as well.

Had a nice day today.  Finally got a chance to rake my leaves and clean up the backyard, then had lunch with my girl friend.

Bought 500 TLRY  at 103.84.  Will see what happens, since its up a little now.  Hopefully it will go up tomorrow.

Saw that UGAZ went up to 193 today.  So, a potential opportunity cost of 23 k.  Made the same mistake when I bought 1500 shares of TLRY on its IPO day for about $24 something, and sold it the next day for about 29 something.  As you know it hit a high of 300 this year.  So I have to force myself to hold on longer on winning positions.  However, in a way I am glad I sold it since the large amount did cause me some stress over the weekend.  So I guess it's a mixed blessing. 

 

I had a good day. Was up north of $8,000. As you have probably noticed I typically only commit a fraction of my available capital. It enables me to control my stress and sometimes hold the positions longer (with mixed results). The market is at a critical juncture. I will post my thoughts after nine tonight. 

Don't lose sleep over not always getting maximum profits. In the words of Bernard Baruch, "I never bought the bottom or sold the top." It's very hard to do those two things. 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

The market is at a critical juncture. I will post my thoughts after nine tonight. 

Stocks had a bad day. There are no ifs and buts about it. In the process, both NASDAQ indices are within hailing distance of their October lows (the NASDAQ 100 is less than 50 points away). The Russell and S&P 500 are not far away either, though not as close as the NASDAQ indices. At this stage, it seems pretty clear to me that these lows will be tested. A least on the two NASDAQ indices if not the entire market. How the market behaves as these critical lows are tested will say a lot about whether we are in a bear market (which is what I believe) or not. If we knife through the October lows, I believe there will be little cheer for the bulls this Holiday season, and I will stay long for sure (possibly even adding to the positions). However, if we find support, then I will have to reassess. The firmness of the support under this scenario will determine my next course of action. 

As I stated in the first post of this current thread, I firmly believe we are now in a bear market. If so, it is still the early innings. With that said, none of us are seers. So, I am ever willing to revise my opinion in light of subsequent market action. If the lows, hold there is always the possibility that that could mark the end of the current weakness.

With that said, I think the probability they hold for more than a week is less than 30%. So, I fully expect my puts will be quite profitable as the market works its way lower over the next several months. How bad this bear market ends up being is anybody's guess. However, given the extent of current valuation metrics,  I believe there is a strong possibility it may be a very ugly one. 

On the day, I was up $8,440 which is about 13.5% on the value of the options at today's open. 

[ohio]

13 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks had a bad day. There are no ifs and buts about it. In the process, both NASDAQ indices are within hailing distance of their October lows (the NASDAQ 100 is less than 50 points away). The Russell and S&P 500 are not far away either, though not as close as the NASDAQ indices. At this stage, it seems pretty clear to me that these lows will be tested. A least on the two NASDAQ indices if not the entire market. How the market behaves as these critical lows are tested will say a lot about whether we are in a bear market (which is what I believe) or not. If we knife through the October lows, I believe there will be little cheer for the bulls this Holiday season, and I will stay long for sure (possibly even adding to the positions). However, if we find support, then I will have to reassess. The firmness of the support under this scenario will determine my next course of action. 

As I stated in the first post of this current thread, I firmly believe we are now in a bear market. If so, it is still the early innings. With that said, none of us are seers. So, I am ever willing to revise my opinion in light of subsequent market action. If the lows, hold there is always the possibility that that could mark the end of the current weakness.

With that said, I think the probability they hold for more than a week is less than 30%. So, I fully expect my puts will be quite profitable as the market works its way lower over the next several months. How bad this bear market ends up being is anybody's guess. However, given the extent of current valuation metrics,  I believe there is a strong possibility it may be a very ugly one. 

On the day, I was up $8,440 which is about 13.5% on the value of the options at today's open. 

Looks like you made out well today.  Glad you are up on your positions.  This market still has plenty of room to sell off, but it could make a small rebound before it goes off the rails. 

Since, NASDQ got clobbered, I'm thinking it might make a small rebound.  So, I bought 1000 shares of TQQQ at 41.09.  It looks like its rebounding a little.

TLRY was in the hole as well in the morning. Was a little worried, but it too looks to rebound.  Got crushed on UCO this morning, might be too late to sell it. 

[ohio]

17 minutes ago, ohio said:

Looks like you made out well today.  Glad you are up on your positions.  This market still has plenty of room to sell off, but it could make a small rebound before it goes off the rails. 

Since, NASDQ got clobbered, I'm thinking it might make a small rebound.  So, I bought 1000 shares of TQQQ at 41.09.  It looks like its rebounding a little.

TLRY was in the hole as well in the morning. Was a little worried, but it too looks to rebound.  Got crushed on UCO this morning, might be too late to sell it. 

Sold TQQQ at 43.64.   Feel that NASDAQ has more room to fall.  

[DarterBlue]

51 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold TQQQ at 43.64.   Feel that NASDAQ has more room to fall.  

Both NASDAQ indices have undercut the October lows. However, they are fighting tooth and nail to close above them as I type this. My own feeling is that they will fail because I think we are in a bear market. However, the battle is furious and fascinating. I will take my direction, ultimately, from what plays out the remainder of this week into next. 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

TLRY was in the hole as well in the morning. Was a little worried, but it too looks to rebound.  Got crushed on UCO this morning, might be too late to sell it. 

Not saying you should sell it, but it is never too late to sell unless the instrument is no longer traded. Meaning? When you have a bad trade, it is never late to own up to it and get out. Example: though FND was above my sale price as of yesterday's close, my only regret is that I did not sell it after it responded poorly to earnings back in the summer. I should have taken the loss then, but don't regret taking it late. 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks continued to get beat up today. In the process, the two NASDAQ indices took out their October lows and closed just below them. On the other hand, the DOW, S&P, Russell and S&P MID Cap are still above their October lows, but some are hanging on by a thread. At one stage today, after bottoming from its early weakness, the two NASDAQ indices came reasonably close to going positive on the day. Had they been able to do so, that would have been a good sign for the bulls, as this would have probably meant that we had put in at least a temporary bottom. However, that nascent rally did not bloom, and by day's end, even though the two NASDAQ indices finished in better shape than the other major indices, they were both down in the 1.7% range and both closed below their October lows. 

All indices today finished in at least the bottom third of their day's ranges. This is not symptomatic of bull market action. For it indicates very clearly that those wanting to sell have a clear upper hand over those wishing to buy. With that said, I believe we will get a temporary respite here. I expect the day before and the day after Thanksgiving to have slightly, positive biases. So, look for a bounce from the violent selling we have experienced over the past two days. However, once the professionals get back to work on Monday, I expect more selling with all the major indices breaking October lows. If I am right on this, then we will be in phase two of the bear market and the next downside objective would be the February lows of this year. Those should be taken out in short order as phase two of the bear wakes investors up to the fact that things have changed at least for the intermediate future.

Remember, markets are characterized by the following emotional states: Hope, at the beginning of new bull markets; greed, during the mature and latter stages of a bull market, as well as the early stage of a bear market; fear, when it becomes clear that we are in a bear market (the intermediate to mature stage of the bear); and, finally despair, during the latter stage of bear markets when stocks can be bought, profitably, at very deep discounts, just as the majority are selling with manic abandon.

Currently, we are transitioning from greed to fear. Once the October lows are broken and the February lows challenged, we will have transitioned to fear, for at this time, what was obvious to competent, veteran market participants, will become clear to most everyone else. 

At the close of business today, my PUT Options were up another $8,150, or about a 12.5% gain from the prior day's closing value. Thus, the pre-Thanksgiving week has treated me well. In celebration of this, I will prepare, myself, a Jamaican fusion Thanksgiving meal done totally from scratch Thursday! This assumes, of course, that I am not blindsided tomorrow which is always a possibility when you trade. 

[HSFBfan]

Trump get highest grade by Quinnipiac poll in economy 

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2587

[DarterBlue]

58 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Trump get highest grade by Quinnipiac poll in economy 

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2587

One of the most accurate leading indicators of the economy, the stock market, is not acting like it's well right now. 

I think individuals in the poll are looking at the rear view mirror. 

[HSFBfan]

26 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

One of the most accurate leading indicators of the economy, the stock market, is not acting like it's well right now. 

I think individuals in the poll are looking at the rear view mirror. 

It's at 24000. Peoples 401k are up significantly. Has the stock market taken a 1500 point hit. Yes it has. But it's still at 24000. 

[DarterBlue]

52 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

It's at 24000. Peoples 401k are up significantly. Has the stock market taken a 1500 point hit. Yes it has. But it's still at 24000. 

It is not about where it's at. It's about where it is going. You are looking in a rear view mirror. 

[HSFBfan]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

It is not about where it's at. It's about where it is going. You are looking in a rear view mirror. 

Maybe if the fed stops screwing with interest rates and costing the market trillions it would not be so volatile 

[ohio]

37 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Maybe if the fed stops screwing with interest rates and costing the market trillions it would not be so volatile 

It's not that simple

 

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, ohio said:

It's not that simple

 

Its a part of it. Powell has cost the economy trillions that is a fact 

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, HSFBfan said:

Its a part of it. Powell has cost the economy trillions that is a fact 

If Powell was not doing what he is doing, we would end up with a crash that would make 2007-2009 look like a walk in the park. We are loaded up with debt that is unsustainable. He is trying to deflate the bubble sooner rather than later. Trust me on this one. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

If Powell was not doing what he is doing, we would end up with a crash that would make 2007-2009 look like a walk in the park. We are loaded up with debt that is unsustainable. He is trying to deflate the bubble sooner rather than later. Trust me on this one. 

We shall see....costing an economy trillions is usually not a good thing

[ohio]

23 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Not saying you should sell it, but it is never too late to sell unless the instrument is no longer traded. Meaning? When you have a bad trade, it is never late to own up to it and get out. Example: though FND was above my sale price as of yesterday's close, my only regret is that I did not sell it after it responded poorly to earnings back in the summer. I should have taken the loss then, but don't regret taking it late. 

I was lucky today as UCO jumped to where I bought it.  Will hold on a little while to see what happens.

Also, bought 1000 shares of UGAZ at 164.33.  Saw it dip hard, then saw a few minute green candle sticks, so I jumped at it.  Still holding on to TLRY but may sell today.

 

[ohio]

On 11/20/2018 at 12:15 PM, DarterBlue said:

Both NASDAQ indices have undercut the October lows. However, they are fighting tooth and nail to close above them as I type this. My own feeling is that they will fail because I think we are in a bear market. However, the battle is furious and fascinating. I will take my direction, ultimately, from what plays out the remainder of this week into next. 

Very true we are at a crossroads here where bears and bulls are not sure what to do.

[ohio]

On 11/19/2018 at 6:58 PM, DarterBlue said:

I had a good day. Was up north of $8,000. As you have probably noticed I typically only commit a fraction of my available capital. It enables me to control my stress and sometimes hold the positions longer (with mixed results). The market is at a critical juncture. I will post my thoughts after nine tonight. 

Don't lose sleep over not always getting maximum profits. In the words of Bernard Baruch, "I never bought the bottom or sold the top." It's very hard to do those two things. 

Thanks for the advice.  I sometimes have a habit of beating my self up when I miss opportunities.

[ohio]

42 minutes ago, ohio said:

I was lucky today as UCO jumped to where I bought it.  Will hold on a little while to see what happens.

Also, bought 1000 shares of UGAZ at 164.33.  Saw it dip hard, then saw a few minute green candle sticks, so I jumped at it.  Still holding on to TLRY but may sell today.

 

Just sold UGAZ at 181.65.

So my only positions are TLRY and UCO.  I'm probably not going to trade any more this week.  But may look to jump into ETF shorts next week in the markets heats up a little.  We'll see.

Hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving.