The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[ohio]

4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I believe (not a 100% sure) that you could day trade them (that piece is certain).However, I am not sure you could turn around and go long calls in the same day after closing puts unless you had other funds in your account. However, one other thing to keep in mind is that options settle in one day (quicker than stocks). Thus, at a minimum, on day two after closing out a position you should be able to do whatever you want to do with no constraints.  Thanks.  I like the one day settlement instead of the t+2 with stocks.

If you are handy with math, there are many strategies you can do with options. You can place trades that clearly define both profit and loss potential. You can place trades (volatility trades) where you will win regardless of market direction provided the move is more than a given percentage either way. The strategies are almost limitless.  It's the strategies that I have to get a grasp of.  Maybe I might paper trade them first before I start trading them.

Options look like they are a better way to trade indexes than ETFs.  Today I timed SVXY almost perfectly and it hardly budged even though the DOW reversed almost 400 + points.  I may even lose money on it if the market falls tomorrow.  Thanks for the reply.

[ohio]

10 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

On another note, regarding the loss today, it's no big deal. If my read of the market is right, and we go down in short order, it is part of the trade I have made. The strategy is predicated on this being a true "bear market" with a decline of 20% or more in all the major indices. If I am right, I will make gains north of 100% on the positions and possibly much greater than 100% depending on the magnitude of the bear market and how quickly the move is made. 

I purposely bought options with over a year to expire in order to accommodate this. Of course I could be wrong. However, if so, I should be able to close the position without losing more than 50% of the value of the position as if the market goes against me and certain predetermined levels are reached, I will sell calls to close. 

Hope you reach the 100% gain. At least you don't have to worry about the LEAPS options expiring anytime soon.

Although be careful if China and the US reach some kind of trade agreement, well at least in the short term.  Most of the other market news seems to be negative though.

Gonna call it a night.  Talk to you tomorrow.

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, ohio said:

Options look like they are a better way to trade indexes than ETFs.  Today I timed SVXY almost perfectly and it hardly budged even though the DOW reversed almost 400 + points.  I may even lose money on it if the market falls tomorrow.  Thanks for the reply.

Not a problem. It may help to buy a book on Options strategies and read it first. Some of them are highly technical and assume college level math skills, as well of a basic to intermediate understanding of them. Others are less so. Since you have never traded options before, regardless of math skills I would recommend a book written for the layman to begin. I will take a look on what is currently in print and make some suggestions by this weekend. 

Trading options are a two edged sword. A neophyte or a person that is reckless can quickly blow up his account with them. On the other hand a calm headed trader who understands and respects risk can use them as an essential tool. If and when you qualify to trade them, rather than paper trade, I would suggest one lot trades (one contract at a time) for several weeks till you get the hang of how they move relative to the underlying stock or index. 

[ohio]

13 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Not a problem. It may help to buy a book on Options strategies and read it first. Some of them are highly technical and assume college level math skills, as well of a basic to intermediate understanding of them. Others are less so. Since you have never traded options before, regardless of math skills I would recommend a book written for the layman to begin. I will take a look on what is currently in print and make some suggestions by this weekend. 

Trading options are a two edged sword. A neophyte or a person that is reckless can quickly blow up his account with them. On the other hand a calm headed trader who understands and respects risk can use them as an essential tool. If and when you qualify to trade them, rather than paper trade, I would suggest one lot trades (one contract at a time) for several weeks till you get the hang of how they move relative to the underlying stock or index. 

Thanks, looking forward to it.   Might try straddle options during earnings season in the future.  But have a lot of learning to do first.

[ohio]

16 hours ago, ohio said:

Just go home.  Had a nice time.

My trailing stop loss sold my DGAZ at 51.94.   Still have SVXY

Sold SVXY at the open for 46.82.  Yesterday I set my trailing stop order too tight on DGAZ as its at 55.79 currently. 

Bought 900 shares UGAZ at 138.55

[ohio]

19 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Not a problem. It may help to buy a book on Options strategies and read it first. Some of them are highly technical and assume college level math skills, as well of a basic to intermediate understanding of them. Others are less so. Since you have never traded options before, regardless of math skills I would recommend a book written for the layman to begin. I will take a look on what is currently in print and make some suggestions by this weekend. 

Trading options are a two edged sword. A neophyte or a person that is reckless can quickly blow up his account with them. On the other hand a calm headed trader who understands and respects risk can use them as an essential tool. If and when you qualify to trade them, rather than paper trade, I would suggest one lot trades (one contract at a time) for several weeks till you get the hang of how they move relative to the underlying stock or index. 

Oh, oh..... I think I fit both of those descriptions.   

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Oh, oh..... I think I fit both of those descriptions.   

Neophyte where options are concerned yes, reckless, I don't think so. You have been doing this for some time and as far as I can tell you have not blown up your account yet. The trick with options is to recognize that percentage wise, they move much faster than stocks and indices. As a result, you have to reduce bet size accordingly. Failure to do so could have dire consequences.

Today, to some degree, the market's performance was the mirror image of yesterday. Today's large gains at the open were surrendered for the most part as a majority of indices closed down even though all indices were up sharply (well over a percent) at the open. That said we did not have a wholesale breakdown. So, as of now, the averages are still fighting to remain about the recent lows. I will repeat that I expect them to fail. However, I greatly respect their effort to keep hope alive. Many blame DJT's performance in the Chuck and Nancy show for the selloff. While this may be a contributing factor, at the end of the day, weak markets selloff on news while strong markets rise on good news and ignore negative news. We are in a weak market!

[ohio]

8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Neophyte where options are concerned yes, reckless, I don't think so. You have been doing this for some time and as far as I can tell you have not blown up your account yet. The trick with options is to recognize that percentage wise, they move much faster than stocks and indices. As a result, you have to reduce bet size accordingly. Failure to do so could have dire consequences.

Today, to some degree, the market's performance was the mirror image of yesterday. Today's large gains at the open were surrendered for the most part as a majority of indices closed down even though all indices were up sharply (well over a percent) at the open. That said we did not have a wholesale breakdown. So, as of now, the averages are still fighting to remain about the recent lows. I will repeat that I expect them to fail. However, I greatly respect their effort to keep hope alive. Many blame DJT's performance in the Chuck and Nancy show for the selloff. While this may be a contributing factor, at the end of the day, weak markets selloff on news while strong markets rise on good news and ignore negative news. We are in a weak market!

I was just kidding about being reckless, but not about being a neophyte in options.  With the market being turbulent, I can't depend on going long on stocks for any length of time,  so I am short term trading and will be going into LEAPS call options, a few stocks,  and ETFs like TQQQ after the next market crash. I'm also interested in straddle options as they may be useful during earnings season, especially if companies don't make profits (well though not hitting the strike price in either puts or calls could suck. lol ). 

Good advice on reducing bet size.

But before I talk to my broker about an options agreement, I want to make sure that I know what I am doing.  As you said, a careless neophyte can blow out his account.  So, I have some studying to do.  I am thinking of reading books and watching videos by experts on options trading and strategies.  Then I may paper trade on ThinkorSwim as their platform looks pretty good, and I will learn the technical aspects of trading online.  After that I will start trading one or two lots, and increase my number of contracts if I am successful.

I'm assuming that you are in LEAPS put options.  Mind telling me when your strike date is?  Sorry ahead of time if I asked too personal a question, as I am more concerned on learning on how to trade with LEAPS than any personal info.  So, you don't have to answer.  I'm thinking of going heavy into LEAPS calls when the next crash happens as they seem to be the highest return investment potential with the least risk, if your timing is right.  I just want to know if I can close my position prior to the expiration date and what are the consequences and outcomes if you are in the money or out of the money before the expiration date.

 

 

[DarterBlue]

31 minutes ago, ohio said:

I'm assuming that you are in LEAPS put options.  Mind telling me when your strike date is?  Sorry ahead of time if I asked too personal a question, as I am more concerned on learning on how to trade with LEAPS than any personal info.  So, you don't have to answer.  I'm thinking of going heavy into LEAPS calls when the next crash happens as they seem to be the highest return investment potential with the least risk, if your timing is right.  I just want to know if I can close my position prior to the expiration date and what are the consequences and outcomes if you are in the money or out of the money before the expiration date.

My leap puts both QQQ and SPY expire on January 17, 2020. I could have bought the January 2021 but expect one way or the other the move will  play out before then. The leaps don't start seriously erosion of time value till around March of next year. If I am wrong about being in a bear market I will have exited before then. If I am right, my exit depends on the market's action. 

[ohio]

21 hours ago, ohio said:

Sold SVXY at the open for 46.82.  Yesterday I set my trailing stop order too tight on DGAZ as its at 55.79 currently. 

Bought 900 shares UGAZ at 138.55

Added 600 more UGAZ at 122.75.  Total shares now 1500.  Got to watch my cash.

Darn Brits shorted natural gas overnight.  Looks to be oversold.

Hopefully I don't get whack again today.

[ohio]

11 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

My leap puts both QQQ and SPY expire on January 17, 2020. I could have bought the January 2021 but expect one way or the other the move will  play out before then. The leaps don't start seriously erosion of time value till around March of next year. If I am wrong about being in a bear market I will have exited before then. If I am right, my exit depends on the market's action. 

Thanks.  Hopefully you get your target before March as leaps do erode quickly a few months before the strike price.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Thanks.  Hopefully you get your target before March as leaps do erode quickly a few months before the strike price.

The real erosion begins in June, actually. Options with under 7 months to expire lose their time value pretty rapidly. They go off the cliff by the end of October.

Also the vernacular is exercise date. Once the leaps are eight months out, they become regular options as those are eight months or less. 

[ohio]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Added 600 more UGAZ at 122.75.  Total shares now 1500.  Got to watch my cash.

Darn Brits shorted natural gas overnight.  Looks to be oversold.

Hopefully I don't get whack again today.

Added 400 more UGAZ at 124.56

Now have 2000 shares

[ohio]

10 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

The real erosion begins in June, actually. Options with under 7 months to expire lose their time value pretty rapidly. They go off the cliff by the end of October.

Also the vernacular is exercise date. Once the leaps are eight months out, they become regular options as those are eight months or less. 

I did not know that.  LEAPS are new to me.  Apparently so is the vernacular. Lol

Good to see that you have more breathing room...time wise.

As for me, I bought too much UGAZ on emotion.  Next time I have to think logically and control my emotions. Set stop loss at 115.  May have to sell at a big loss if it hits.   I'm going to a local shopping center and later going to work for the first time in over two weeks.  Kind of stressful watching watching the market now.  Talk to you tomorrow.

Anyways good luck.

 

[Troll]

54 minutes ago, ohio said:

 

As for me, I bought ...

 

Just for shits and giggles.....according to Q.....Google is making some chatter....

Wonder what you might think.... LOL

Dec 11 2018 23:42:39 (EST) !!mG7VJxZNCI Q ID: 4b6f4d
4267248→

>>4267057
GOOG (upcoming) financial statements should receive extra scrutiny [10-Q].
Follow the money.
Help will be provided.
Q

 

Dec 11 2018 23:33:44 (EST) !!mG7VJxZNCI Q ID: 4b6f4d
4267057→

>>4266938
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/gy7mnx/google-ceo-says-no-plans-to-launch-dragonfly-chinese-search-engine-sundar-pichai
Google CEO Says No Plan to ‘Launch’ Censored Search Engine in China”
How do you cover your tracks?
Start a FIRE.
GOOG says NO PLAN TO LAUNCH…….
What if GOOG already gave access to China?
CHINA launch?
WILL CHINA BE ANNOUNCING A STATE-FUNDED & STATE-MADE NEW SEARCH ENGINE IN THE COMING MONTHS?
The FIRE that brought down GOOGLE.
Q

 

 

and

 

What a coincidence.
Q

 

-------------------------

 

any thoughts??? 🤔

 

 

[DarterBlue]

On 12/11/2018 at 11:39 AM, ohio said:

Thanks, looking forward to it.   Might try straddle options during earnings season in the future.  But have a lot of learning to do first.

Options: If you can get it to borrow from the local library, Options Trading for Beginners, by JD Scott is a quick, simple read. I would not recommend buying it, but for free it's worth it as it provides a quick introduction for those with no experience.

Once you get through that, then I would recommend the bible of options, Options as a Strategic Investment, by Lawrence McMillan. This one I would recommend buying. However, as it is fairly technical, you should probably read a simpler book first, such as my first recommendation. Build the foundation then the house. 

The Market: So far this week, the market has been trying, with modest success, to repair last week's damage. Monday and Tuesday pretty much canceled themselves out in that the first opened weak and closed strong, while the second opened strong and closed relatively weak. Today, was the first real up-day of the week, but had its flaws as stocks closed at day lows even though all indices were up on the day. Still, the bulls can take comfort in the fact that recent lows, though breached, have not yet been taken out convincingly. If and when they do, all hell could break loose. But there are no guarantees it will happen. 

With the above said, nothing has happened yet that leads me to believe that this rebound attempt will succeed. In fact, it is possible that if it continues for another day or two, I may add to my short positions. But for me to do so, the "price and market action" will have to be just "right." I will keep you posted. For the record, week to date, I am down approximately $4,500, from Friday's close. While not nice, I am not overly perturbed by this, as the burden of proof lies with the bulls. Till proven otherwise by the market's action, I consider this to be just another bull trap. 

[ohio]

On 12/12/2018 at 10:35 AM, ohio said:

Added 400 more UGAZ at 124.56

Now have 2000 shares

Sold  2000 UGAZ at 130.68 for a loss.

Bought 2600 DGAZ at an average of 57.42.  Warm weather and higher inventory should drop natural gas prices.

Will talk to you about options and market direction after market close.

 

[ohio]

55 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold  2000 UGAZ at 130.68 for a loss.

Bought 2600 DGAZ at an average of 57.42.  Warm weather and higher inventory should drop natural gas prices.

Will talk to you about options and market direction after market close.

 

Sold all DGAZ at 64.11 as I saw it turn direction,  for a nice profit.   May have left money on the table if it goes up later or tomorrow.  But don't really care, as I am glad to get out of both positions.

I am in all cash and and have little cash available to trade.  Probably won't trade today or tomorrow.  Just want to relax.

Yesterday my stop loss almost hit, as I was behind over 30K.  Couldn't concentrate at work as I was worried about  a big loss.  Got lucky this morning as UGAZ popped up overnight.

 

 

 

[ohio]

14 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Options: If you can get it to borrow from the local library, Options Trading for Beginners, by JD Scott is a quick, simple read. I would not recommend buying it, but for free it's worth it as it provides a quick introduction for those with no experience.

Once you get through that, then I would recommend the bible of options, Options as a Strategic Investment, by Lawrence McMillan. This one I would recommend buying. However, as it is fairly technical, you should probably read a simpler book first, such as my first recommendation. Build the foundation then the house. 

The Market: So far this week, the market has been trying, with modest success, to repair last week's damage. Monday and Tuesday pretty much canceled themselves out in that the first opened weak and closed strong, while the second opened strong and closed relatively weak. Today, was the first real up-day of the week, but had its flaws as stocks closed at day lows even though all indices were up on the day. Still, the bulls can take comfort in the fact that recent lows, though breached, have not yet been taken out convincingly. If and when they do, all hell could break loose. But there are no guarantees it will happen. 

With the above said, nothing has happened yet that leads me to believe that this rebound attempt will succeed. In fact, it is possible that if it continues for another day or two, I may add to my short positions. But for me to do so, the "price and market action" will have to be just "right." I will keep you posted. For the record, week to date, I am down approximately $4,500, from Friday's close. While not nice, I am not overly perturbed by this, as the burden of proof lies with the bulls. Till proven otherwise by the market's action, I consider this to be just another bull trap. 

Thanks for posting the list of options books.  I will look for them in the library first and buy one or two as a reference guide.  Will look at some Youtube videos on options as well tonight, and go to the library on Saturday.

Right now, I feel like a 800 pound Gorilla was lifted off my back.  Before I went to work, I saw UGAZ was at about 117 and heading south and thought for sure that my stop loss would get hit.  At work I checked my phone to see how it was doing and it actually fell below my stop loss.  But the stop loss did not hit because market trades are not allowed by Ameritrade in extended hours, only limit orders. When I got home at night, an even bigger worry was that UGAZ would open even less than 115, maybe a lot less.  So, I didn't sleep too well as I was looking at the natural gas prices on my notebook.  But things actually worked out well as it ended up with a profit on both trades combined.

Never again will I place such a large bet on an individual stock again, no matter how certain I feel that it will go up.  Lesson learned.  I really don't need this kind of stress.

I going to take a long nap, as I feel relaxed now that I am in no positions and out of a jam.

 

Looks like the markets are drifting down again.  I would short as well but have little available cash to trade with.  As always, keep a close eye the China/ US trade negotiations.  Wish you luck.

 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Never again will I place such a large bet on an individual stock again, no matter how certain I feel that it will go up.  Lesson learned.  I really don't need this kind of stress.

You learned a good lesson without too much financial pain. Position size is a key ingredient of successful trading. It took me a few years to recognize this basic truth!

[ohio]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

You learned a good lesson without too much financial pain. Position size is a key ingredient of successful trading. It took me a few years to recognize this basic truth!

You couldn't have said it better. I let my emotions and hubris get the best of me.  If things went sour I could have lost between 30 to 50 grand, which would have been a years wage lost in three days.  So, in the future it's  mandatory to set a percentage limit on an individual position.   And if you see me adding too much in one position, reach into the computer and smack me.  Lol

As far as markets go it's hard to play individual stocks now.  Sure you can get lucky on stocks like ETSY, but most are heading down and probably won't turnaround anytime soon.  Plus the pot stocks have lost their steam, but will keep an eye on them just in case they start to get hot again.  So the only thing that's left is index, oil, gold, and natural gas ETFs as I can go short or long on them.

When I start trading options, I'll probably leave the ETFs alone for the most part.  But will play trends like pot stocks.  I thought about trading commodities, but they are too time intensive.  So, I don't see my self playing them.

 

[ohio]

On 12/12/2018 at 11:54 AM, Troll said:

Just for shits and giggles.....according to Q.....Google is making some chatter....

Wonder what you might think.... LOL

Dec 11 2018 23:42:39 (EST) !!mG7VJxZNCI Q ID: 4b6f4d
4267248→

>>4267057
GOOG (upcoming) financial statements should receive extra scrutiny [10-Q].
Follow the money.
Help will be provided.
Q

 

Dec 11 2018 23:33:44 (EST) !!mG7VJxZNCI Q ID: 4b6f4d
4267057→

>>4266938
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/gy7mnx/google-ceo-says-no-plans-to-launch-dragonfly-chinese-search-engine-sundar-pichai
Google CEO Says No Plan to ‘Launch’ Censored Search Engine in China”
How do you cover your tracks?
Start a FIRE.
GOOG says NO PLAN TO LAUNCH…….
What if GOOG already gave access to China?
CHINA launch?
WILL CHINA BE ANNOUNCING A STATE-FUNDED & STATE-MADE NEW SEARCH ENGINE IN THE COMING MONTHS?
The FIRE that brought down GOOGLE.
Q

 

 

and

 

What a coincidence.
Q

 

-------------------------

 

any thoughts??? 🤔

 

 

Insider Cow.  Haven't looked at that site for a while.  As for many insiders selling GOOG stock, I really don't know why they are selling.  Could be for various reasons.  But it's better to invest in a stock where the insiders are buying back stock and even then if there is a market crash, it won't matter.  As for the fire, it probably had little effect on it's stock movement.

What's making it drop in price is market conditions, as most NASDAQ stocks have fallen since the September highs.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

When I start trading options, I'll probably leave the ETFs alone for the most part.  But will play trends like pot stocks.  I thought about trading commodities, but they are too time intensive.  So, I don't see my self playing them.

Years ago, I thought about trading commodities (futures) myself. I came to the conclusion back then that to have a shot, I would have to lease or buy a seat on an exchange, either in NYC or Chicago. Absent that, the commissions costs and spread between bid and ask, made it a dubious proposition for retail investors. Sort of like playing the ponies, it did not seem like a game where I could convert individual or collective trades into a >0 expectation. I did not go the seat route as it would have cost me my marriage which I valued too much. 

Another factor that kept me from those markets is that regulations are loser and, hence, the whole game is more susceptible to fraud. 

Just my ten cents for what they are worth. If we go into an inflationary environment, I may consider buying options on gold futures, as at least there I can clearly define my downside at the outset of the trade.

[ohio]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Years ago, I thought about trading commodities (futures) myself. I came to the conclusion back then that to have a shot, I would have to lease or buy a seat on an exchange, either in NYC or Chicago. Absent that, the commissions costs and spread between bid and ask, made it a dubious proposition for retail investors. Sort of like playing the ponies, it did not seem like a game where I could convert individual or collective trades into a >0 expectation. I did not go the seat route as it would have cost me my marriage which I valued too much. 

Another factor that kept me from those markets is that regulations are loser and, hence, the whole game is more susceptible to fraud. 

Just my ten cents for what they are worth. If we go into an inflationary environment, I may consider buying options on gold futures, as at least there I can clearly define my downside at the outset of the trade.

Appreciate the info. 

Didn't know that there were so many obstacles and issues with trading commodities.  One thing that I cannot figure out is.......

When I read Investing.com's WTI or NG discussions board it seems that many of the traders on there seem to trade all day long.  Even a few PIP movement makes them buy, sell, cover or some other action.  Is it possible for them to trade several times a day without having a seat on an exchange?

Plus this topic reminds me of Trading Places.

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

Appreciate the info. 

Didn't know that there were so many obstacles and issues with trading commodities.  One thing that I cannot figure out is.......

When I read Investing.com's WTI or NG discussions board it seems that many of the traders on there seem to trade all day long.  Even a few PIP movement makes them buy, sell, cover or some other action.  Is it possible for them to trade several times a day without having a seat on an exchange?

Plus this topic reminds me of Trading Places.

Yes. But it is difficult to be profitable for the reasons I mentioned.

And the futures markets allow a lot of margin. Typically, depending on the commodity or financial instrument being traded, you need only put up 10%. It allows one to make huge gains and losses in a very small window. Most people bust out within months if not weeks. If you last a year, you have a shot!