The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[World Citizen]

On 12/2/2018 at 11:40 AM, noonereal said:

take cover, someone will be along shortly to label you a racist...😯

Lol.  I guess but it was a play on words.  Never occured to me but I can see how it could be taken that way.  Interesting.  

 

[noonereal]

3 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

Lol.  I guess but it was a play on words.  Never occured to me but I can see how it could be taken that way.  Interesting.  

 

Exactly  

[World Citizen]

2 minutes ago, noonereal said:

Exactly  

Perspective is tricky at times.  Thanks for the reminder. 😀

 

[ohio]

On 12/2/2018 at 12:20 PM, DarterBlue said:

It is part of the game we play. Not nice especially given the circumstances, but it is something we all deal with, draw downs. 

Regarding the upcoming week, we will see. If I don't like the action I will cover the position. The first loss is the best, the last the worst.  

Today's markets got beat up up pretty badly.  Looks like the trade negotiations with the sleeping dragon aren't going well.  Two stubborn leaders rarely get along.

Glad to see you are getting some of your money back on your puts.

I made my first trade today in over a week.  Bought 1200 shares of TVIX at an average of  price of 37.86 and sold it for 44.12.  Probably sold it too quick, but I felt too tired to watch it.  It's unlikely that I'll be trading this week as I can't focus on the charts.

Don't know if I should be mentioning this on a public board, but last week I was in the hospital for five days for pneumonia. so I couldn't talk to you then.  I still feel weak, so I took this whole week of off from work.  I was hoping that the weakness would have gone away by now, hopefully soon.  Also, the bags of antibiotics did a number on my stomach but it's getting better as I am eating mild foods like chicken soup, mashed potatoes,  and cream of wheat.  I'll have to stay away from acid and high roughage foods for a while I guess.

Anyways, good luck on your positions.

 

'

[DarterBlue]

18 minutes ago, ohio said:

Today's markets got beat up up pretty badly.  Looks like the trade negotiations with the sleeping dragon aren't going well.  Two stubborn leaders rarely get along.

Glad to see you are getting some of your money back on your puts.

I made my first trade today in over a week.  Bought 1200 shares of TVIX at an average of  price of 37.86 and sold it for 44.12.  Probably sold it too quick, but I felt too tired to watch it.  It's unlikely that I'll be trading this week as I can't focus on the charts.

Don't know if I should be mentioning this on a public board, but last week I was in the hospital for five days for pneumonia. so I couldn't talk to you then.  I still feel weak, so I took this whole week of off from work.  I was hoping that the weakness would have gone away by now, hopefully soon.  Also, the bags of antibiotics did a number on my stomach but it's getting better as I am eating mild foods like chicken soup, mashed potatoes,  and cream of wheat.  I'll have to stay away from acid and high roughage foods for a while I guess.

Anyways, good luck on your positions.

 

'

1. First, I am sorry to hear you were ill. I had wondered why you had not posted. Take care of yourself and I wish you a speedy recovery. Good health is a blessing. I try and do a lot to maintain it. While I want to live for many years to come, I want to be able to enjoy them if I am so blessed. 

2. In one day I recouped half of the losses I sustained over the prior six trading days (last week and Monday). I am not sure what to make of the day's weakness. I did note that while the market closed up big yesterday, it churned quite a bit and failed to make any progress during the day. That is not a great sign technically.

3. Regarding getting out of your trade, I think you did the right thing given there is no trading tomorrow and your health concerns. Book the profits and relax Wednesday.

4. A little luck helps in this game, but at the end of the day, smart management keeps one alive. 

[ohio]

8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

1. First, I am sorry to hear you were ill. I had wondered why you had not posted. Take care of yourself and I wish you a speedy recovery. Good health is a blessing. I try and do a lot to maintain it. While I want to live for many years to come, I want to be able to enjoy them if I am so blessed.  Thank you.  Hopefully I'll be back to my own jovial self soon.  Good health is a definitely a blessing.  It's good to take care of yourself, and glad to see you are taking it seriously.  Longevity, without good health is not good in itself.  So, try to take good care of yourself through exercise, good diet, and living a less stressful life.

2. In one day I recouped half of the losses I sustained over the prior six trading days (last week and Monday). I am not sure what to make of the day's weakness. I did note that while the market closed up big yesterday, it churned quite a bit and failed to make any progress during the day. That is not a great sign technically.  Glad to see that you recouped your losses.  I didn't talk to you about the market yesterday, because I figured you might have been upset about your losses.

3. Regarding getting out of your trade, I think you did the right thing given there is no trading tomorrow and your health concerns. Book the profits and relax Wednesday.  I wasn't planning on trading today, but was watching CNBC and saw the DOW start to drop, so I jumped into TVIX.  Thought about buying UVXY as well, but it had gone up too much.  I felt weak, so I decided to take a quick profit and not worry about it over the next two days.

4. A little luck helps in this game, but at the end of the day, smart management keeps one alive. So true.

Good luck.

[ohio]

On 12/4/2018 at 5:33 PM, DarterBlue said:

1. First, I am sorry to hear you were ill. I had wondered why you had not posted. Take care of yourself and I wish you a speedy recovery. Good health is a blessing. I try and do a lot to maintain it. While I want to live for many years to come, I want to be able to enjoy them if I am so blessed. 

2. In one day I recouped half of the losses I sustained over the prior six trading days (last week and Monday). I am not sure what to make of the day's weakness. I did note that while the market closed up big yesterday, it churned quite a bit and failed to make any progress during the day. That is not a great sign technically.

3. Regarding getting out of your trade, I think you did the right thing given there is no trading tomorrow and your health concerns. Book the profits and relax Wednesday.

4. A little luck helps in this game, but at the end of the day, smart management keeps one alive. 

Markets getting crushed today.  Good to see you getting your losses back'

Bought 2200 shares of TQQQ at an average of 44.27 todays dip

Two 700 point drops in the DOW is a little too much.

[ohio]

8 hours ago, ohio said:

Markets getting crushed today.  Good to see you getting your losses back'

Bought 2200 shares of TQQQ at an average of 44.27 todays dip

Two 700 point drops in the DOW is a little too much.

Sold it at 48.12 in the after hours.   Don't need the stress of keeping it overnight.

Lately, the market has been going up and down like a Yoyo, so I don't trust it and am all in cash again.

You still have your puts?

[DarterBlue]

2 hours ago, ohio said:

Sold it at 48.12 in the after hours.   Don't need the stress of keeping it overnight.

Lately, the market has been going up and down like a Yoyo, so I don't trust it and am all in cash again.

You still have your puts?

Very good trade on your part.

Yes, I still have the puts. At the market lows, I had recouped all my losses since the post Thanksgiving week. However, most of today's gains were surrendered by the close. I still closed up $570 on the day, due to the expansion of volatility reflected in the price of the options. Since purchase, the puts as of today's close are up a little over 25% or approximately $12,400.

[DarterBlue]

I spent the day at the FHSAA Florida High School Football State finals. So, I did not have much time to really monitor the market action. It seems the averages were down at their lows around 11:30 am at which time we were looking like another Tuesday. But then the averages rallied furiously into the close to end mixed on the day. 

From here it looks like the averages may have again found a temporary floor. Whether this will hold or not remains to be seen.

I am doing football again Friday and Saturday and will analyze the market more thoroughly Saturday evening or Sunday. I will post my detailed thoughts at that time. For now, I see no reason to close the PUTS yet. 

[ohio]

Bought 1000 shares of TVIX at 46.05 at 46.12 and 800 shares of UVXY at 59.96 earlier. Market looks like it may tank, put still got my trigger finger ready just in case

 

[ohio]

46 minutes ago, ohio said:

Bought 1000 shares of TVIX at 46.05 at 46.12 and 800 shares of UVXY at 59.96 earlier. Market looks like it may tank, put still got my trigger finger ready just in case

 

Sold TVIX at 51.15 and UVXY at 63.68.  Have to go visit my doctor for a follow up at 2:15.  So, I'm done trading.

Market is down today, So I'm glad that your puts are up.  Hope you enjoy your football games.

[DarterBlue]

Where Do We Stand? Since the week of Thanksgiving, the stock market has gone on a wild ride. On the Friday after the holiday, the market seems set to literally roll over. I was up 49.85% on the 40 PUT Option contracts I am long and was anticipating a mini market crash. Well that did not happen and this was at least partly due to pressure on the FED from the Executive Branch of our government which led Powell to change his public stance on interest rates. Thus, the week after Thanksgiving was huge for the bulls and took back most of the unrealized profits I had in the PUTS. Then over the following weekend (last weekend) the news broke that we had brokered some sort of "truce" with China pushing back additional tariffs by 90 days from the beginning of the new year to give breathing room for serious bilateral negotiations to take place. This resulted in a further upside melt up of the averages Monday and put my PUTS position in the red for the first time since I held them. 

However, the final three trading days of the week (T, Th and Friday), were a disaster for those in the bullish camp as the major averages gave back almost all of the gains made in the prior six trading days. In fact, smaller capitalization issues reflected in the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap index took out the November lows and in the case of the Russel took out the October lows as well. However, the other more widely recognized indices have so far held just above their November lows, which with the exception of the two NASDAQ indices are just above the October lows. 

I believe we are at a critical juncture in this market's weakness. Should the other widely recognized indices (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 and DOW) take out their November lows and go on to take out their October lows, over the next week or so, then we will see the next phase of what I think is a bear market (as evidenced by the title of this thread). However, should the November and October lows hold over the next two weeks then the bulls will have won the day: at least for now. To me the burden of proof is on the bulls. The current price and volume action, as well as the deteriorated internals of the market (new lows swamping new highs, most indices below declining moving averages that usually provide critical support, etc.) lead me to strongly believe that we will take the lows out and embark on the next leg of this bear market. Of course if I am proven wrong, I will reevaluate my opinion and take whatever action I then deem necessary. 

What do I Plan to do? For now, I will hold on to the PUTS. I have regained all but $1,510 of the value lost the week after Thanksgiving this week and am now up almost 47% on the positions. Why not add to my positions since I strongly believe we are going lower? The answer is simple, I already have as large an option position as I am willing to take at this juncture. You stay in the game, by limiting your risk. Going for the home run each time will eventually lead to your being carried out feet first. By limiting my exposure, I am better able to hold on to the position when, as will almost always happen in bear markets, you get a violent counter trend rally to the upside. 

[ohio]

18 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Where Do We Stand? Since the week of Thanksgiving, the stock market has gone on a wild ride. On the Friday after the holiday, the market seems set to literally roll over. I was up 49.85% on the 40 PUT Option contracts I am long and was anticipating a mini market crash. Well that did not happen and this was at least partly due to pressure on the FED from the Executive Branch of our government which led Powell to change his public stance on interest rates. Thus, the week after Thanksgiving was huge for the bulls and took back most of the unrealized profits I had in the PUTS. Then over the following weekend (last weekend) the news broke that we had brokered some sort of "truce" with China pushing back additional tariffs by 90 days from the beginning of the new year to give breathing room for serious bilateral negotiations to take place. This resulted in a further upside melt up of the averages Monday and put my PUTS position in the red for the first time since I held them. 

However, the final three trading days of the week (T, Th and Friday), were a disaster for those in the bullish camp as the major averages gave back almost all of the gains made in the prior six trading days. In fact, smaller capitalization issues reflected in the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap index took out the November lows and in the case of the Russel took out the October lows as well. However, the other more widely recognized indices have so far held just above their November lows, which with the exception of the two NASDAQ indices are just above the October lows. 

I believe we are at a critical juncture in this market's weakness. Should the other widely recognized indices (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 and DOW) take out their November lows and go on to take out their October lows, over the next week or so, then we will see the next phase of what I think is a bear market (as evidenced by the title of this thread). However, should the November and October lows hold over the next two weeks then the bulls will have won the day: at least for now. To me the burden of proof is on the bulls. The current price and volume action, as well as the deteriorated internals of the market (new lows swamping new highs, most indices below declining moving averages that usually provide critical support, etc.) lead me to strongly believe that we will take the lows out and embark on the next leg of this bear market. Of course if I am proven wrong, I will reevaluate my opinion and take whatever action I then deem necessary. 

What do I Plan to do? For now, I will hold on to the PUTS. I have regained all but $1,510 of the value lost the week after Thanksgiving this week and am now up almost 47% on the positions. Why not add to my positions since I strongly believe we are going lower? The answer is simple, I already have as large an option position as I am willing to take at this juncture. You stay in the game, by limiting your risk. Going for the home run each time will eventually lead to your being carried out feet first. By limiting my exposure, I am better able to hold on to the position when, as will almost always happen in bear markets, you get a violent counter trend rally to the upside. 

Nice analysis, as usual.  Your right about looking at the October and November lows as the graph of the S&P500 shows.    There is also a triple top and a triple bottom, so this could go either way.   If the S&P goes below 2600 and there is no major positive fiscal news, then there could be a strong chance for a free fall.

On the other hand, if there is no fiscal news and the media starts to hype investors into buying back on the dip, then the market may rise in the short term.  However, if the US and China make progress or reach a trade agreement then it might be a good time to go long for the short term.  Just my take on the possible direction of the markets this week.

As of now the market futures are lower.

Good luck this week.

 

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

On 12/4/2018 at 5:07 PM, ohio said:

Today's markets got beat up up pretty badly.  Looks like the trade negotiations with the sleeping dragon aren't going well.  Two stubborn leaders rarely get along.

Glad to see you are getting some of your money back on your puts.

I made my first trade today in over a week.  Bought 1200 shares of TVIX at an average of  price of 37.86 and sold it for 44.12.  Probably sold it too quick, but I felt too tired to watch it.  It's unlikely that I'll be trading this week as I can't focus on the charts.

Don't know if I should be mentioning this on a public board, but last week I was in the hospital for five days for pneumonia. so I couldn't talk to you then.  I still feel weak, so I took this whole week of off from work.  I was hoping that the weakness would have gone away by now, hopefully soon.  Also, the bags of antibiotics did a number on my stomach but it's getting better as I am eating mild foods like chicken soup, mashed potatoes,  and cream of wheat.  I'll have to stay away from acid and high roughage foods for a while I guess.

Anyways, good luck on your positions.

 

'

Speedy recovery Darter!

And yeah, lay off the “acid” and “roughage”. 🤔🤣

BGW

[ohio]

10 minutes ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

Speedy recovery Darter!

And yeah, lay off the “acid” and “roughage”. 🤔🤣

BGW

Wrong guy.  But thanks. If only my state would legalize pot, I might recover even quicker.  Well, at least I wouldn't feel any pain. 🤣

 

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

11 minutes ago, ohio said:

Wrong guy.  But thanks. If only my state would legalize pot, I might recover even quicker.  Well, at least I wouldn't feel any pain. 🤣

 

Oops! 😬

BGW

[ohio]

Just now, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

Oops! 😬

BGW

De nada.  Don't worry about it..

[ohio]

Bought TVIX at  1000 shares of 53.31 and sold at 58.04.  Brexit concerns.

Bought 1000 shares of SVXY 44.81.  Thinking market fell down too much.  We'll see

[ohio]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Bought TVIX at  1000 shares of 53.31 and sold at 58.04.  Brexit concerns.

Bought 1000 shares of SVXY 44.81.  Thinking market fell down too much.  We'll see

Bought 1000 DGAZ at 46.37 and still have 1000 SVXY at 44.81.  Going to leave both overnight and see what happens, as I am going take out my girl friend.  Good luck, Darter.

[ohio]

6 hours ago, ohio said:

Bought 1000 DGAZ at 46.37 and still have 1000 SVXY at 44.81.  Going to leave both overnight and see what happens, as I am going take out my girl friend.  Good luck, Darter.

Just go home.  Had a nice time.

My trailing stop loss sold my DGAZ at 51.94.   Still have SVXY

[DarterBlue]

15 minutes ago, ohio said:

Just go home.  Had a nice time.

My trailing stop loss sold my DGAZ at 51.94.   Still have SVXY

Great! I am happy for you.

I took an unrealized loss of $2,480 on the day due to the market's reversal to the upside. At day lows I was up over $6,500.  With that said, I am not sanguine on the reversal. My feelings are that we will see new, lower lows in fairly short order. I will enumerate why below. 

1. Volume which had been much higher early on when the market was wobbly actually ended lower on the day. Thus, the rally was market not so much by buyers stepping and buying aggressively, but by sellers going to the sidelines. 

2. The rally from day lows was not broad based. Declining issues led by more than 2-1 on the NYSE and 3-2 on the NASDAQ. The rally was in beat down, larger capitalization stocks.

3. New 52 week lows swamped new highs by a margin of 1,789 to 27. Basically, more than 1/6 of all stocks that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ recorded a new 52 week low today.

4. Although they closed above these levels, all of the major indices except the NASDAQ indices undercut their October and November lows today before rallying. And, don't be fooled  by the NASDAQ. It did undercut October's lows but not the Thanksgiving lows. 

With the above said, it is not an impossibility that we could have seen a major bottom. However, if I were to assign a probability to it, it is less than 35%. Those are not the kind of odds that would lead me into going long this market.

 

[ohio]

18 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Great! I am happy for you.  Thanks

I took an unrealized loss of $2,480 on the day due to the market's reversal to the upside. At day lows I was up over $6,500.  With that said, I am not sanguine on the reversal. My feelings are that we will see new, lower lows in fairly short order. I will enumerate why below.  That sucks. 

1. Volume which had been much higher early on when the market was wobbly actually ended lower on the day. Thus, the rally was market not so much by buyers stepping and buying aggressively, but by sellers going to the sidelines. 

2. The rally from day lows was not broad based. Declining issues led by more than 2-1 on the NYSE and 3-2 on the NASDAQ. The rally was in beat down, larger capitalization stocks.  Was surprised NASDAQ went up after Apple's Chinese court decision.

3. New 52 week lows swamped new highs by a margin of 1,789 to 27. Basically, more than 1/6 of all stocks that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ recorded a new 52 week low today.  Wow

4. Although they closed above these levels, all of the major indices except the NASDAQ indices undercut their October and November lows today before rallying. And, don't be fooled  by the NASDAQ. It did undercut October's lows but not the Thanksgiving lows. Was surprised that they did not go lower and reversed, forcing me to sell my short position after Brexit coverage stopped.  I went long and may pay for it overnight or tomorrow.

With the above said, it is not an impossibility that we could have seen a major bottom. However, if I were to assign a probability to it, it is less than 35%. Those are not the kind of odds that would lead me into going long this market.

 

Questions for you.

As you know, I never traded options and am not experienced enough to start yet.  So, how often can you trade Options?  Could you even day trade them?  For instance, could you have exercised your put options when you were up $6500, and bought call options?

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, ohio said:

Questions for you.

As you know, I never traded options and am not experienced enough to start yet.  So, how often can you trade Options?  Could you even day trade them?  For instance, could you have exercised your put options when you were up $6500, and bought call options?

I believe (not a 100% sure) that you could day trade them (that piece is certain).However, I am not sure you could turn around and go long calls in the same day after closing puts unless you had other funds in your account. However, one other thing to keep in mind is that options settle in one day (quicker than stocks). Thus, at a minimum, on day two after closing out a position you should be able to do whatever you want to do with no constraints.

If you are handy with math, there are many strategies you can do with options. You can place trades that clearly define both profit and loss potential. You can place trades (volatility trades) where you will win regardless of market direction provided the move is more than a given percentage either way. The strategies are almost limitless. 

[DarterBlue]

On another note, regarding the loss today, it's no big deal. If my read of the market is right, and we go down in short order, it is part of the trade I have made. The strategy is predicated on this being a true "bear market" with a decline of 20% or more in all the major indices. If I am right, I will make gains north of 100% on the positions and possibly much greater than 100% depending on the magnitude of the bear market and how quickly the move is made. 

I purposely bought options with over a year to expire in order to accommodate this. Of course I could be wrong. However, if so, I should be able to close the position without losing more than 50% of the value of the position as if the market goes against me and certain predetermined levels are reached, I will sell calls to close.