The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[DarterBlue]

4 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

Your last paragraph.  

I wanted you to know how much I appreciate your posts.  I agree with you on mostly everything but that is not what's important.  The fact that you recognize the importance of our shared humanity and that you are respectful of those you disagree with.  Definitely an area where I could do better.  

Love is the strongest thing there is and I think you feel the same.  In this OT section of the forum there is much crazy talk with a lot of anger and insults but you do not get caught up in it but stay above while still engaging.  It is appreciated and gives me incentive to do the same.  Doesn't always work for me though.  Lol

As for you and @ohio financial talks...It is way above my pay grade but I find it valuable just the same.  

I appreciate your posts as well. There was another individual @15yardsofgibberish that I also appreciated. But he does not come on much anymore. 

[World Citizen]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

I appreciate your posts as well. There was another individual @15yardsofgibberish that I also appreciated. But he does not come on much anymore. 

@15yds4gibberish is my brother from another mother.  

I really enjoy his posts too.  Extremely clever and funny.  A great combo.  I've had the pleasure of meeting him and I consider him a good friend.  I use that term very selectively. 

Talking with both of you and a few others on here I am always the better for it.  

 

[DarterBlue]

4 hours ago, ohio said:

I may have jumped the gun by buying 700 more shares of TVIX at 50.34 on impulse.  Maybe I should have waited like you are doing.

Might have to stop trading and keep these shorts for at least a days and hope they go up towards the end of the year.

Kind of sucks that you took a loss on MPX.  But at least it's not a big one.

 

You were right and I wrong. Hopefully you have covered some of this trade at a nice profit. I had no idea things were going to fall apart this badly today. I felt for sure the market was going to at least meander after the early gains and then give up the ghost later this week. Needless to say, I did not get the additional 10 PUT contracts. However, I am not going to complain as at the moment I am up close to $7,000 on the day. 

[DarterBlue]

On a day when the averages were down across the board after opening significantly higher, I saw my early loss turn GUCCI. 

As mentioned earlier, I sold the remainder of my MPX, 1811 shares at 20.75. Factoring that into the 10 sold last week at 21.20, means that I realized a total loss of $133.60 on the trade. The holding period was a little over 2.5 months and at my peak, I was up 16% on the trade. Obviously I gave up some nice profits. However, I am not mad at myself as my goal was to give this stock a chance to run. Unfortunately, it got held back to a degree by the change in market tone. Still on the day, it was up over 2% from Friday's close. This allowed me to get back to essentially break even on this trade. Note though, that not losing on a trade is not that important to me. I have no problem with losses. What is important is not taking large losses. 

On the day, including the 2% earned on MPX, I was up $3,645. With twenty minutes to go before the close, I was up approximately $6,500. However, in that final 20 minute stretch, the market recouped nearly half of the day's losses. 

My Take on Today's Action: It was very bearish period! When a market opens up significantly and suffers a sharp reversal, it is very negative. When you combine that with the fact that the market has been beaten up the past two weeks and still cannot sustain a BID despite its very oversold conditions, only an individual ignorant of the implications from a technical standpoint would be happy.

With that said, we are due for a bounce from the oversold conditions. However, I think we may have at least another bad day before it comes. When we do get the bounce, at that stage, based on its strength or lack thereof, I will decide whether to purchase the additional PUT Options.  

[ohio]

21 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Enjoy lunch with your girlfriend. Those are the little things in life that make it worthwhile.

In a five day stretch last week three separate individuals: one Black and mid forties, one East Indian and early seventies, and one White and mid sixties engaged me in conversation as I took my daily exercise (I walk/jog at least four miles each and every day, barring illness). The funny thing is, that each of these total strangers just wanted to talk.

There is something to human contact and interaction; we all yearn for it, regardless of our race, nationality or religion. 

Thanks. We had a good time.

The little things do count.  Glad you had nice conversations with the three people you met.  People in general get along but rabble-rousers like politicians, media people, ministers, and others on the internet divide us.  Probably why I don't watch CNN, FOX, or radio antagonists.

[ohio]

17 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

You were right and I wrong. Hopefully you have covered some of this trade at a nice profit. I had no idea things were going to fall apart this badly today. I felt for sure the market was going to at least meander after the early gains and then give up the ghost later this week. Needless to say, I did not get the additional 10 PUT contracts. However, I am not going to complain as at the moment I am up close to $7,000 on the day. 

I just got lucky.  Had it gone the other way I would have been in a deep hole.  I did not sell my positions in UVXY or TVIX yet.

I still have 2200 shares of TVIX at a cost of 50.49 and 1800 of UVXY at a cost of 63.58.   I may sell them today, depending on what happens.  Sill waiting for my recent sale of MSFT and TLRY to clear, so I can open up some cash.

[ohio]

13 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

On a day when the averages were down across the board after opening significantly higher, I saw my early loss turn GUCCI. 

As mentioned earlier, I sold the remainder of my MPX, 1811 shares at 20.75. Factoring that into the 10 sold last week at 21.20, means that I realized a total loss of $133.60 on the trade. The holding period was a little over 2.5 months and at my peak, I was up 16% on the trade. Obviously I gave up some nice profits. However, I am not mad at myself as my goal was to give this stock a chance to run. Unfortunately, it got held back to a degree by the change in market tone. Still on the day, it was up over 2% from Friday's close. This allowed me to get back to essentially break even on this trade. Note though, that not losing on a trade is not that important to me. I have no problem with losses. What is important is not taking large losses. 

On the day, including the 2% earned on MPX, I was up $3,645. With twenty minutes to go before the close, I was up approximately $6,500. However, in that final 20 minute stretch, the market recouped nearly half of the day's losses. 

My Take on Today's Action: It was very bearish period! When a market opens up significantly and suffers a sharp reversal, it is very negative. When you combine that with the fact that the market has been beaten up the past two weeks and still cannot sustain a BID despite its very oversold conditions, only an individual ignorant of the implications from a technical standpoint would be happy.

With that said, we are due for a bounce from the oversold conditions. However, I think we may have at least another bad day before it comes. When we do get the bounce, at that stage, based on its strength or lack thereof, I will decide whether to purchase the additional PUT Options.  

Too bad MPX was a disappointment.

This market pullback seems to be going down slowly, unlike in January and February of this year where it went down violently.  But big question will be; is this just another pullback or is this the start of a crash and a bear market?  Guess we'll soon find out.

I'll talk to you again after the market close.

[ohio]

32 minutes ago, ohio said:

Too bad MPX was a disappointment.

This market pullback seems to be going down slowly, unlike in January and February of this year where it went down violently.  But big question will be; is this just another pullback or is this the start of a crash and a bear market?  Guess we'll soon find out.

I'll talk to you again after the market close.

 

37 minutes ago, ohio said:

I just got lucky.  Had it gone the other way I would have been in a deep hole.  I did not sell my positions in UVXY or TVIX yet.

I still have 2200 shares of TVIX at a cost of 50.49 and 1800 of UVXY at a cost of 63.58.   I may sell them today, depending on what happens.  Sill waiting for my recent sale of MSFT and TLRY to clear, so I can open up some cash.

Sold UVXY at 67.36 and TVIX at 56.92.  So I'm in all cash.

Might jump back into these ETFs again when cash opens up and if they have fallen steeply.

Going downtown today.  

[DarterBlue]

Just now, ohio said:

 

Sold UVXY at 67.36 and TVIX at 56.92.  So I'm in all cash.

Might jump back into these ETFs again when cash opens up and if they have fallen steeply.

Going downtown today.  

We will pick this up later. I may buy the remainder of the PUT Options today. But it depends on action over the next two hours. 

[ohio]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

We will pick this up later. I may buy the remainder of the PUT Options today. But it depends on action over the next two hours. 

Good luck.  I'll talk to you after I get back.

[DarterBlue]

The market rallied strongly today erasing, and in the case of some of the indices, more than erasing yesterday's losses. That is scored very good gains is fine. However, these were made off a market that has been battered the past two weeks plus. So this is cold comfort for those long that have taken significant losses during that time. 

I tried to add another 10 PUT Option contracts today (5 SPY and 5 QQQ), but was unsuccessful. My limits were $16 on the SPY and 14.25 on the QQQ. I came within 29 cents of a fill on the SPY and only about 60 cents on the QQQ. If we get a second strong day tomorrow, I intend to try again. Why? Till we get compelling evidence that the selling has abated and we are in a new bull market or a new leg of the current bull market since we have not officially met bear market territory yet, all rallies are to be met with skepticism and should be treated as opportunities to add to shorts. 

[ohio]

49 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

The market rallied strongly today erasing, and in the case of some of the indices, more than erasing yesterday's losses. That is scored very good gains is fine. However, these were made off a market that has been battered the past two weeks plus. So this is cold comfort for those long that have taken significant losses during that time. 

I tried to add another 10 PUT Option contracts today (5 SPY and 5 QQQ), but was unsuccessful. My limits were $16 on the SPY and 14.25 on the QQQ. I came within 29 cents of a fill on the SPY and only about 60 cents on the QQQ. If we get a second strong day tomorrow, I intend to try again. Why? Till we get compelling evidence that the selling has abated and we are in a new bull market or a new leg of the current bull market since we have not officially met bear market territory yet, all rallies are to be met with skepticism and should be treated as opportunities to add to shorts. 

Yep, the market did come back strong today.  Since October 3rd, this pullback has wiped out all the gains for the year in the markets so a small reversal was expected.

The fact that you did not get your order in, may be a blessing in disguise. 

If there is a market crash, it will most likely look like the one in 2000 to 2002, not the one in 2007-2008.  In the year 2000 the market and economy were doing well, but the broad market was stagnant and interest rate hikes deflated it.  In 20007 the markets fell mostly due to sub prime loans and the Shanghai Stock Exchange taking a hit.  If this next crash happens it will take a while for it to truly crash, maybe a year or more plus we could get huge market swing like we did in 2000.  This is just my take what might happen, but we'll soon find out what happens

If there are huge market swings in the near term future, I plan on buying long ETFs like SPY, SVXY, QQQ, or TQQQ  if the market falls too low, and TVIX and UVXY if it rebounds too high.  And of course, and an occasional yuyo stock.  Lol.  But if it really starts to fall I may jump in with both feet with the shorts and stay there a while.

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

The fact that you did not get your order in, may be a blessing in disguise. 

If there is a market crash, it will most likely look like the one in 2000 to 2002, not the one in 2007-2008.  In the year 2000 the market and economy were doing well, but the broad market was stagnant and interest rate hikes deflated it.  In 20007 the markets fell mostly due to sub prime loans and the Shanghai Stock Exchange taking a hit.  If this next crash happens it will take a while for it to truly crash, maybe a year or more plus we could get huge market swing like we did in 2000.  This is just my take what might happen, but we'll soon find out what happens

I suspect that there are cockroaches under the furniture. I believe I related the fact that there were two Charter Schools investing in Long/Short leveraged funds and another fund that employed various options strategies. That some investment manager put them into such investments is criminal as I am sure they did not meet the suitability criterion. If the School Board knew they were doing this, it would be scandalous. But the point is they were both doing this and one was on 40% margin at June 30, 2018. That is real, crazy stuff. 

If other sleepy entities are doing the same thing, we could get a meltdown sooner than you think. 

[ohio]

On 10/29/2018 at 1:36 PM, World Citizen said:

Your last paragraph.  

I wanted you to know how much I appreciate your posts.  I agree with you on mostly everything but that is not what's important.  The fact that you recognize the importance of our shared humanity and that you are respectful of those you disagree with.  Definitely an area where I could do better.  

Love is the strongest thing there is and I think you feel the same.  In this OT section of the forum there is much crazy talk with a lot of anger and insults but you do not get caught up in it but stay above while still engaging.  It is appreciated and gives me incentive to do the same.  Doesn't always work for me though.  Lol

As for you and @ohio financial talks...It is way above my pay grade but I find it valuable just the same.  

Great post.  Darter always posts great content.  Plus, love is important and it's best not to engage with some of the people on the OT thread.

For only $19.99 you too can buy The Prepgridiron Guide to Investing written by DarterBlue and ohio.  Lol.

 

[ohio]

8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I suspect that there are cockroaches under the furniture. I believe I related the fact that there were two Charter Schools investing in Long/Short leveraged funds and another fund that employed various options strategies. That some investment manager put them into such investments is criminal as I am sure they did not meet the suitability criterion. If the School Board knew they were doing this, it would be scandalous. But the point is they were both doing this and one was on 40% margin at June 30, 2018. That is real, crazy stuff. 

If other sleepy entities are doing the same thing, we could get a meltdown sooner than you think. 

I'll be ready for it.  Hopefully, I'll have the courage to jump in with both feet.

 

[ohio]

13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I suspect that there are cockroaches under the furniture. I believe I related the fact that there were two Charter Schools investing in Long/Short leveraged funds and another fund that employed various options strategies. That some investment manager put them into such investments is criminal as I am sure they did not meet the suitability criterion. If the School Board knew they were doing this, it would be scandalous. But the point is they were both doing this and one was on 40% margin at June 30, 2018. That is real, crazy stuff. 

If other sleepy entities are doing the same thing, we could get a meltdown sooner than you think. 

It is crazy stuff.  I heard an old saying about the stock market that went something like, "Once grandma takes money from under her mattress and starts to invest, it's time to get out of the market"

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, ohio said:

It is crazy stuff.  I heard an old saying about the stock market that went something like, "Once grandma takes money from under her mattress and starts to invest, it's time to get out of the market"

That is exactly my fear. Some bear markets start during very good times (at least outwardly). It is only months in that the bad news starts to come out. 

[ohio]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

That is exactly my fear. Some bear markets start during very good times (at least outwardly). It is only months in that the bad news starts to come out. 

Very true. There may also be a psychological element in this as well.  Since the last crash in 2008 and 9, people have become very certain that the markets are indestructible and greed trumps fear.  Once reality sets in and fear takes hold the markets will have to fall hard.  

[ohio]

13 hours ago, ohio said:

I'll be ready for it.  Hopefully, I'll have the courage to jump in with both feet.

 

Bought 800 shares of TVIX at 49.64 and 500 or UVXY at 61.01.  We'll see if this starts to go down.

[ohio]

2 hours ago, ohio said:

Bought 800 shares of TVIX at 49.64 and 500 or UVXY at 61.01.  We'll see if this starts to go down.

Oh, oh.  TVIX at 49.38 and UVXY 60.69.  Market looks to be building up steam.   Hopefully it will pull back some tomorrow.

 

[DarterBlue]

24 minutes ago, ohio said:

Oh, oh.  TVIX at 49.38 and UVXY 60.69.  Market looks to be building up steam.   Hopefully it will pull back some tomorrow.

 

It is strong. I bought the 10 additional PUT Contracts. Five QQQ at 13.25 and 5 SPY at 14.90. 

If I am correct with my basic thesis, this is just a counter trend rally. However, if proven wrong and we go higher from here, I will reverse my positions in aggregate. My measure will be both time and price sensitive. I will post more elaborate thoughts on this tonight. 

[ohio]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

It is strong. I bought the 10 additional PUT Contracts. Five QQQ at 13.25 and 5 SPY at 14.90. 

If I am correct with my basic thesis, this is just a counter trend rally. However, if proven wrong and we go higher from here, I will reverse my positions in aggregate. My measure will be both time and price sensitive. I will post more elaborate thoughts on this tonight. 

You jumped in strong as well.  Last two and a sixteenth days the markets made a strong rebound, so it may be a temporary counter trend rally or as I call it "a dead cat bounce." 

Added 700 more TVIX at 47.73 and 500 more UVXY at 59.22.  So now I have 1500 of TVIX at an average of 48.70 and 1000 of UVXY at an average fo 60.12.

Didn't really want to add more stock before the market close, but I have to work a double shift tomorrow and wouldn't get a chance to add if the market falls.  Sometimes you got to take a chance if the odds are in your favor.  I hope. Lol

Want to get out of the house, so I'm going out to for supper, maybe some Chinese vegi soup and a Subway flatbread sandwich.  Then I plan on hitting the sack early since I have to get up at 5 AM tomorrow morning.  So this will probably be my last post till Friday.

Best of luck.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

You jumped in strong as well.  Last two and a sixteenth days the markets made a strong rebound, so it may be a temporary counter trend rally or as I call it "a dead cat bounce." 

Added 700 more TVIX at 47.73 and 500 more UVXY at 59.22.  So now I have 1500 of TVIX at an average of 48.70 and 1000 of UVXY at an average fo 60.12.

Didn't really want to add more stock before the market close, but I have to work a double shift tomorrow and wouldn't get a chance to add if the market falls.  Sometimes you got to take a chance if the odds are in your favor.  I hope. Lol

Want to get out of the house, so I'm going out to for supper, maybe some Chinese vegi soup and a Subway flatbread sandwich.  Then I plan on hitting the sack early since I have to get up at 5 AM tomorrow morning.  So this will probably be my last post till Friday.

Best of luck.

I remember those double shift days. The additional shift was uncompensated, though; oh the privilege of white collar work. Sometimes, depending on the profitability of the project, in addition to a really nice dinner at a steakhouse like Smith & Wollensky, we would get a bonus check for our dedication at the successful conclusion of the job. 

I saw both good and bad in today's action. The good is that many of the former leaders bounced mightily. The bad is that participation was not very broad and toward the end, the rally seemed to run out of steam. Needless to say,  I got beat up today, but am guardedly optimistic that this rally peters out and at the very least retest the lows of this sell off. But, if proven wrong, I will not fight the tape. 

[DarterBlue]

Today's Action: The averages closed up with solid gains. However, there are some concerns. Unlike Tuesday, breadth was missing Wednesday and despite the big gains, only a little more than 3 stocks gained for every two down. Perhaps, the rally is running out of steam? I don't know. But I do know it was not as good as it looks.

On the day, I added 5 new SPY contracts at 15 and 5 new QQQ Put contracts at 13.25. I accounted for all the volume in that series of QQQ Puts as only five traded. The new purchases were actually mildly profitable as the purchases took place near market highs close to 10 am. However, on the day I lost $2,513 as the existing contracts got smacked. If this rally continues unabated over the next three days, I may close the positions out depending on the overall strength of the action. With that said, I don't think it will. However, I have defined my uncle point and will abide by it. 

 

[15yds4gibberish]

On 10/29/2018 at 10:52 AM, World Citizen said:

@15yds4gibberish is my brother from another mother.  

I really enjoy his posts too.  Extremely clever and funny.  A great combo.  I've had the pleasure of meeting him and I consider him a good friend.  I use that term very selectively. 

Talking with both of you and a few others on here I am always the better for it.  

 

Ha!  I shall remind my brother @World Citizen that he is the kind of man that inspires the affection of many old friends.  I know because I have seen this myself first hand.  I'm quite pleased to join their ranks -- Especially when we can all get together to mock you while standing in the long concession line waiting so you can buy hot tamales...

Like you, I too have a great deal of respect for @DarterBlue.  I admire his intelligence, the way he expresses his opinions, and how he always comports himself with dignity.  I should like to meet him one day, talk it over, discussing the issues of the day and some of our common influences like "Your Money or Your Life."  As it happens, I will be in Florida tomorrow, and if I wasn't otherwise committed, I'd vector off to Orlando to go shake the man's hand...One of these days I hope to make that happen in my travels.

As for me, politics was kinda getting to me, so I decided I wasn't going to look backward on this election and say to myself I wish I had done something.  So for the first time in my life I volunteered for a campaign, including going way out of my comfort zone, canvassing door to door.  Great experience.

So to my libtard friends, this last weekend is the most important.  Get out and vote, bring a friend, encourage those you know who have never voted to get out and give democracy a shot while there still is one,  host a ballot and BBQ party, volunteer to make calls, drive someone to the polls...

And to my conservative friends, make sure you vote Nov. 7.

Talk more next week my brother.