The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[World Citizen]

3 hours ago, GrecoRoman said:

Good questions buddy,  This discussion could get deep and with good guys like Darter and Ohio we should have quality discourse.  

-I would start by asking you what in your opinion defines wealth in a society/nation?  My answer would be to gauge the percentage of the poulation that enjoys a rising a standard of living which could best be analyzed by the purchasing power they enjoy.  In other words, the amount of "stuff" the average man/family can afford with their currency.  If you give me your opionion on what defines wealth we can then get to the next step.  (dont think of this as a nations wealth i.e balance of trade, current accounts etc - think of it from the perspective of an individual in this case the collection of citizens)

What defines wealth?  I probably have very different thoughts on this than most people.  I'm going to have to think about that for a bit.  I'll get back to you because the games are about to start.  Lol

-Something else  to understand is that the intrinsic value an asset is noting more than a premium over the prevailing risk free rate (the risk free rate being the prevailing treasury maturity for the term of your investment  i.e. a 10 year investment horizon corresponds to a 10 year treasury).  You create a risk spread over the treasury depending on the risk of the asset class, project out cash flows over the investment term (earnings, interest, NOI in real estate etc), then finally "discount" it back to a present value.  Thus the higher the risk free rate = higher the discount rate = lower present value/lower offer price.  In other words, if you could go to the bank and get a 5% guaranteed fixed rate return for a year, why would you ever buy stock (or another risky asset) if you can get that return risk free.  You would need a much higher return to justify the risk therfore that higher return would be your required discount.  There are dozens of fancy formulas with creative names i.e. DCF, CAPM, Sharpe, Black Scholes, Gordond Div Discount Model, RE Cap rates, hurdle rates blah blah blah .....at the root they all amount to what I just explained.  Your takeaway from this should be > lower interest rates increase asset prices, higher interest rates decrease asset prices.  You seem more liberal leaning (not knocking this just observing) so next ask who owns the assets - answer the top 5% of people that conrol the huge majority of the wealth (most of the wealth disparity in due to capital assets and has gotten progressively worse each decade)

Liberal leaning?  I damn fell over and can't get up.  Good call.

2nd bolded.  This is a perfect example of what is wrong with our country.  The greed is hard to wrap my head around really and while I am comfortable, I have little hope there will be any reasonable balance achieved without some type of catastrophic forcing. 

 

If you can give me your opinion on the first question and if the second paragraph on asset val makes sense we can chip away more.  I'm in and out this weekend but like I said this stuff  makes for good discussion and I'm terrifed of where the country is headed so to the extent a football board gets these type of discussions going its a great thing

 

 

 

[GrecoRoman]

2 hours ago, World Citizen said:

 

 

 

What defines wealth?  I probably have very different thoughts on this than most people.  I'm going to have to think about that for a bit.  I'll get back to you because the games are about to start.  Lol.  No prob .....this is an important one though.  In order to help the situation we would first have to establish what we're trying to accomplish.  

 

Liberal leaning?  I damn fell over and can't get up.  Good call.  Again, this wasnt meant as a dig - I respect  everyones opinions - just trying to establish if you have a general position.  

2nd bolded.  This is a perfect example of what is wrong with our country.  The greed is hard to wrap my head around really and .   Greed is an unfortunate human element.  I would suggest that the best weapon against greed is risk - if someone is insanely greedy then by default they would be afraid of losing money.  (we'll come back to this later)  

while I am comfortable, I have little hope there will be any reasonable balance achieved without some type of catastrophic forcing.  I would suggest the catastrophic forcing has tried to happen multiple times - that is what 2008 was.  It was the market trying to correct all of the imbalances caused by the government.  Your initial reaction might be how could the government stand by and let things collapse.  That's not what was happening - what was happening was a transfer of wealth from the 5% to the 95% as during the supposed "boom" the transfer went the other way.   Why is it good if the median home price is almost 5x the median household income when for 70 years prior it averaged 2.5x.  Is it not helpful if prices drop to what the majority can afford based on actual economic  production and earnings? (in a free market prices will always reflect this - just think how could it not?) In a debt/credit based economy, the "boom" is where the mistakes happen - the crash is where the good things are happening because the growth was an inflationary mirage and the market is again trying to reset prices in line with the normal economy (I can explain this in more detail as we go) I would suggest that if the Fed stood by its orignal mandate and had no interference in the setting of interest rates the top 5% would be evicerated and the wealth gap would narrow very quickly.  My point is that free market capitalism would solve the problems you (and I) and most good people are concerned with.  It didnt cause the problems we're speaking of as we don't have free market capitalism and haven't for a while.(though of course it will be blamed because Trump was dumb enough to embrace the bubble Obama handed him)   The cause of the problems we're discussing is greedy politicians that have been able  to run rampant with an elastic money supply and insanely high money multiplier and the Feds openly forecasted monetary policy (they literally have a term for it "forward guidance" where they in essence ask the markets permission if there projected policies are acceptable > htf is this capitalism?  The most important price in capitalism is the price of money (interest rates) as it is on one side of every transaction - if you intefere with this price then it should make sense all subsequent pricing is flawed.      This system chooses winners (Wall St, the government and those who own assets) and losers (people with wages/fixed income)  bear in mind all of these things are only possible post gold standard.  This goes back to your greed concern > wall st/loves to juice ROI with leverage where is the risk if I can show up at the Feds discount window and borrow money for 0%  (yep - Obamas Fed had rates at zero or 8 years) . This doesnt even cover the 3.7 trillion in QE they did - that was the real bail out of Wall St opposed to the announced TARP etc .  Obama was the biggest friend ever to Wall St yet somehow people think he was anti Wall St?  

I dont mean to send like I'm preaching here - and again the point is to have an open forum where all opionios are welcomed.  This is also a tough topic to do on a board opposed an internet forum because there is a great deal to cover

 

[World Citizen]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That's good stuff.  I still don't know what exactly could have been done in 08 by Obama.  Or in 2000 when we went through the surplus in Clinton admin.  What was the reasoning for the Fed to start messing with interest rates? 

Politicians, once they get elected, can be greedy.  Not all of them but even the ones who are not still have to play the game as its set up.  Kind of trapped in a way and it doesn't seem like they are in a hurry to fix the system.  As soon as elected they are on the trail for more money so they can run again.  They spend basically no time with their colleagues legislating.  And if they did spend time in DC all they do is not agree with the other side.  So how does anything change?  They must have an interest in keeping the Fed's interested.  Lol  See what I did there. 

Will continue this another time.  Gotta honeydo list and happy wife and all.   

[DarterBlue]

After rallying on all cylinders during the first three trading days, the market stalled out Thursday and Friday. Realizing that it was bumping up against resistance on Wednesday, I took the opportunity to add to my short positions by adding another 8  LEAP Put contracts. At the close of business Friday, the 40 Put contracts now owned had a market value of $49,070 on a cost basis of $47,579.82, for an unrealized net profit of $1,490.18. More specifically, the QQQ Puts had an unrealized profit of $2,042.59, offset by a net loss of $552.41 on the SPY Puts. At this juncture I am as short as I intend to be in this market. 

First a word on LEAP Puts (the LEAP calls function in similar fashion). LEAP Options are long dated options meaning that at the time of purchase they have have more than a year left before expiration. When I fist started trading LEAPS, their maximum duration at the inception of the contracts were, I believe, two years and eight months. The LEAPS I currently own expire on January 20, 2020. Thus, as of today, they have a little over 14 months left before expiration. One of the fundamental differences between LEAPS and "normal options" is the fact that the time value embedded in their cost does not decay rapidly the way it does in options that expire within 90 days. In fact, the rapid decay does not really set in till about 8 to 9 months from expiration. As a consequence, it is not inappropriate to view LEAPS as similar to buying a very volatile, relatively low priced stock. With that said, they are actually a very good vehicle for a fairly conservative trader to take a position without risking imminent disaster, as unless the trade goes against you badly from its inception, your position capital is not wiped out in a matter of months. The LEAP Puts I own are out of the money. That means they could not be exercised profitably at this juncture as their strike price is below the current market. Thus, they lack any intrinsic value. So, in a sense, I have paid for more time while sacrificing intrinsic value. Why? It fits in both with my personality and my read of the market. 

Though it may shock the Wing Nuts on this board, I am actually a pretty conservative guy. However, and this is the rub, my definition of conservative differs markedly from theirs. What it means to me is prudence, and my feeling about the markets from a trader's perspective has always fit in with Ed Seykota's perspective, "There are bold traders and old traders, but very few bold, old traders." More specifically, my choice of vehicle and strike reflects the fact that I think we are either in a bear market as  I type this or we will be in one within the next six months. Thus, my shorts reflect the fact that if I am right and it has begun, I can take advantage early, while if I am wrong and it has not started yet, I can give the position four to five of the six month topping scenario, a decent chance to manifest itself before I am forced to cover. 

So where do I feel the market stands as of Friday? Believe it or not, because we are still close to resistance and due to the sharp rally we have had that begun in the final trading days of October, we are also overbought. Hence, I see the market heading lower at least for the first two to three trading days of the upcoming week.

Going out toward the end of the month, I feel we will at the very least retest the October lows as a lot of technical damage was done to stocks in October and I don't think we can just do a V shaped reversal. After that, we will evaluate where we stand based on the internals of the market action as we approach the retest of October's lows. Of course, this scenario may be completely wrong. I am no seer. I only go by what my indicators tell me and on what 28 years of experience have taught me. If wrong, I still have the luxury of avoiding panic due to the nature of the vehicles I own. 

[ohio]

On 11/9/2018 at 6:32 PM, ohio said:

Money from ETSY and TLRY sales opened up today.  So I was able to sell  all of TVIX at 39.40 and all of UVXY at 51.26. Was behind on both stocks by quite a bit yesterday.  Over $12,000.  Was hoping the market would have fallen further towards the end of the day, but it started to rebound so, I panicked a little and decided to sell.  May have left money on the table if the market opens up lower on Monday.

Glad that the market went down today, or else I would have been down by quite a bit more.  The weekend would have really sucked and I would have had to light up a joint or two and wash it down with extra strength Mylanta.  And speaking of pot....

Also bought 600 TLRY at 107.33 on a hard dip and sold all at 116.02 in the morning for a quick pick me up.  Would have liked to have held TLRY longer, but I don't trust the pot stocks that much right now.  Glad that I didn't hold on as it fell in the afternoon.  Might buy it again next week if it takes another steep dip.  It could be a while before the dope stocks start buzzing again, though.

I'm currently in all cash again and don't have to go to work, so at least I can enjoy a worry free weekend if nothing else.

Bought 1500 UVXY at 50.44 and 1800 TVIX at 38.47.  So far so good.  The VIX is climbing.  We'll see how long this continues.

Might buy TLRY later today or tomorrow as they report after market close tomorrow.

[ohio]

20 minutes ago, ohio said:

Bought 1500 UVXY at 50.44 and 1800 TVIX at 38.47.  So far so good.  The VIX is climbing.  We'll see how long this continues.

Might buy TLRY later today or tomorrow as they report after market close tomorrow.

Bought 800 TLRY at 106.85.  Have my annual physical at 11:15 so I figurred I buy it before I go.

I'll talk to you later tonight

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, ohio said:

Bought 800 TLRY at 106.85.  Have my annual physical at 11:15 so I figurred I buy it before I go.

I'll talk to you later tonight

Sounds good. Hope you have a clean bill of health. Mine comes up in mid-December. 

[ohio]

4 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Sounds good. Hope you have a clean bill of health. Mine comes up in mid-December. 

Thanks, I appreciate your concern.  You are a truelly good man.  Hope you get a clean bill of health on your check up as well

Came back from the Cleveland Clinic, and everything looks OK on the outside.  Will have to wait for the blood work to come back in a few days.  

[DarterBlue]

20 minutes ago, ohio said:

Thanks, I appreciate your concern.  You are a truelly good man.  Hope you get a clean bill of health on your check up as well

Came back from the Cleveland Clinic, and everything looks OK on the outside.  Will have to wait for the blood work to come back in a few days.  

The last time I was fine, but my prostate was slightly enlarged and bared watching. Hopefully, it is not getting worse.  Glad that so far so good nothing seems wrong on your end. 

The market is having a great day going toward the close for the bears. I did not anticipate that today's selloff would be this severe. However, I won't complain. 

[ohio]

15 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

The last time I was fine, but my prostate was slightly enlarged and bared watching. Hopefully, it is not getting worse.  Glad that so far so good nothing seems wrong on your end. 

The market is having a great day going toward the close for the bears. I did not anticipate that today's selloff would be this severe. However, I won't complain. 

My father had a problem for years with an enlarged prostate.  His doctor was milking him with for years with autopsies, meds, and so on.   He went to another younger doctor, who performed the newest laser surgury and the result was night and day.  Now he just takes meds, but his PSI is high but no signs of cancer or anything like that.

Also, try to cut back on dairy and red meat.  Maybe even animal protein in general, with the exception of fish like salmon.  It's just something I read on a large study in Hawaii.  May work or it may not, but it won't hurt and will probably help your health in general.

[DarterBlue]

37 minutes ago, ohio said:

My father had a problem for years with an enlarged prostate.  His doctor was milking him with for years with autopsies, meds, and so on.   He went to another younger doctor, who performed the newest laser surgury and the result was night and day.  Now he just takes meds, but his PSI is high but no signs of cancer or anything like that.

Also, try to cut back on dairy and red meat.  Maybe even animal protein in general, with the exception of fish like salmon.  It's just something I read on a large study in Hawaii.  May work or it may not, but it won't hurt and will probably help your health in general.

Thanks for the tip. My meat consumption is not high by American standards. About four servings of red meat per week, and I try and limit the amount per serving to 4 ounces. I do drink a lot of milk (at least 8 ounces a day) and I love cheese, so that may be part of the problem. I may try and scale those back.  

[ohio]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Thanks for the tip. My meat consumption is not high by American standards. About four servings of red meat per week, and I try and limit the amount per serving to 4 ounces. I do drink a lot of milk (at least 8 ounces a day) and I love cheese, so that may be part of the problem. I may try and scale those back.  

Do you take meds for it like Proscar (Finasteride) or any herbal supplements like Saw Palmetto. My dad takes both and they seem to work.  But be sure to ask your urologist before you try any thing new.

I too am cutting out animal proteins and replacing them with things like cold water deep sea fish like wild salmon, almond milk or low fat coconut milk, almond yogurt, and grass fed (pastured) eggs....  Haven't had red meat for more than a year and a half.  And sometimes  eat grass fed chicken or turkey.  Going to a friends farm and shoot wild turkeys before Thanksgiving.  They're gamy but probably healthier.

[DarterBlue]

59 minutes ago, ohio said:

Do you take meds for it like Proscar (Finasteride) or any herbal supplements like Saw Palmetto. My dad takes both and they seem to work.  But be sure to ask your urologist before you try any thing new.

I too am cutting out animal proteins and replacing them with things like cold water deep sea fish like wild salmon, almond milk or low fat coconut milk, almond yogurt, and grass fed (pastured) eggs....  Haven't had red meat for more than a year and a half.  And sometimes  eat grass fed chicken or turkey.  Going to a friends farm and shoot wild turkeys before Thanksgiving.  They're gamy but probably healthier.

My general practitioner told me that it was not necessary at the time, but we need to monitor it closely. So, I am a bit concerned going into my meeting in December. 

[ohio]

On 11/12/2018 at 10:15 AM, ohio said:

Bought 1500 UVXY at 50.44 and 1800 TVIX at 38.47.  So far so good.  The VIX is climbing.  We'll see how long this continues.

Might buy TLRY later today or tomorrow as they report after market close tomorrow.

Sold 1500 UVXY at 57.78 and 1800 TVIX at 46.12.  Still have 800 TLRY. Will see what happens in a few minutes.

[ohio]

24 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold 1500 UVXY at 57.78 and 1800 TVIX at 46.12.  Still have 800 TLRY. Will see what happens in a few minutes.

Sold TLRY at 114.11.  Mixed report.  CEO on TV.  Somewhat upbeat but not overly excited.  Could fall in the next few days.

Bought 2000 UCO 20.28. Oil too low.

[ohio]

28 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold 1500 UVXY at 57.78 and 1800 TVIX at 46.12.  Still have 800 TLRY. Will see what happens in a few minutes.

 

11 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold TLRY at 114.11.  Mixed report.  CEO on TV.  Somewhat upbeat but not overly excited.  Could fall in the next few days.

Bought 2000 UCO 20.28. Oil too low.

Currently only have UCO.   Rest in cash and will wait for cash to open up.

[DarterBlue]

21 minutes ago, ohio said:

 

Currently only have UCO.   Rest in cash and will wait for cash to open up.

Sounds like you were productive and profitable. That's a good thing. Oil will bounce, if not now, certainly over the next few days. Today's action looked climatic. However, that does not mean it reverses and goes a lot higher. But there should be a tradable rally. 

Overall, today's market action was weak. I had expected the first three days this week to be bearish. However, on Monday, we got the equivalent of three down days in one. I had expected that today we would probably get a snap back rally. That the market could not sustain one does not look good for the bulls. On the day, I made exactly $100 on the Options. But yesterday I had some really nice gains. So, there is nothing to complain about. 

The rest of the week is critical. If the bulls are to have any chance over the next several weeks, they need a bounce that is sustainable over at least a two day period. IF they fail to get this, I believe October's lows will get taken out in short order. 

[ohio]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

Sounds like you were productive and profitable. That's a good thing. Oil will bounce, if not now, certainly over the next few days. Today's action looked climatic. However, that does not mean it reverses and goes a lot higher. But there should be a tradable rally. 

Overall, today's market action was weak. I had expected the first three days this week to be bearish. However, on Monday, we got the equivalent of three down days in one. I had expected that today we would probably get a snap back rally. That the market could not sustain one does not look good for the bulls. On the day, I made exactly $100 on the Options. But yesterday I had some really nice gains. So, there is nothing to complain about. 

The rest of the week is critical. If the bulls are to have any chance over the next several weeks, they need a bounce that is sustainable over at least a two day period. IF they fail to get this, I believe October's lows will get taken out in short order. 

I made money on all three closed positions.  Though I may have left money on the table if the markets fall tomorrow.

Got lucky on TLRY, since it popped up a little after earnings, even on not so spectacular numbers.  Still think it has room to fall, but you never know with this pot stock.  For all I know it could be up by or down by 10% tomorrow.  But it always seems to rebound on a hard dip.  So if I see another dip, I may jump in again.

I jumped into UCO because I thought that oil got whacked a little too hard today.  It could still fall a little tomorrow in the US markets, but might also move up overnight.  There is a good chance that the Asian and European markets may buy back into the WTI and Brent before tomorrows open.  Once a oil rally starts, UCO should go up quite a bit.

You're right about the overall markets.  This morning they looked like they were going to rally, but pulled back in the afternoon.  Earnings reports could still buoy the markets for a little while, but once earnings are over there will not be much to keep it from falling further.  Also, NVDA and WMT to report on the 15th, so that could determine which way the markets end this week.

Glad you are up on your positions.  Yesterday was a nice gain, but today was still OK.  Better to be up a 100 bucks than down a 100.

 

 

 

 

 

[ohio]

On 11/13/2018 at 4:30 PM, ohio said:

 

Currently only have UCO.   Rest in cash and will wait for cash to open up.

Had some cash open up today.  Rest will open up on Monday.

Bought 500 NVDA  pre-market at 196.30.   Also, just bought  700 WMT at 100.18.  Both report after market close.

Going over Mom and Dad's today and get some home cooking.  Worked a double yesterday, but not working today.  Talk to you later.

[DarterBlue]

6 minutes ago, ohio said:

Had some cash open up today.  Rest will open up on Monday.

Bought 500 NVDA  pre-market at 196.30.   Also, just bought  700 WMT at 100.18.  Both report after market close.

Going over Mom and Dad's today and get some home cooking.  Worked a double yesterday, but not working today.  Talk to you later.

I miss mom's cooking. She had a touch I can never replicate. Good luck with NVDA and WMT. Market is all over the place this morning. It takes a brave man to go long in this environment. I though WMT reported this morning before the bell. Was I wrong on that?

I still have my 40 PUTS in place. As of now, there is no need to cover. 

[ohio]

4 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I miss mom's cooking. She had a touch I can never replicate. Good luck with NVDA and WMT. Market is all over the place this morning. It takes a brave man to go long in this environment. I though WMT reported this morning before the bell. Was I wrong on that?

I still have my 40 PUTS in place. As of now, there is no need to cover. 

You're right about WMT.   Got home at about 1:30 last night.  The girl replacing me came in over 50 minutes late.  Have to talk to the supervisor to dock her an hour or to fire her.  She can't be doing this.  Plus I'm fed up with doing double shifts.  So, they have to hire another person or get rid of the first shift guy.  I'm not 25 any more, and can't take all these hours.

Got up around 9 a.m.  to look at the markets, bought NVDA.  And dad called that he needed me to come over.  So, I bought WMT before I left on a whim thinking they would report after hours.  Dumb move on my part.  Usually I get up and look at the markets and turn on CNBC and then make well thought out trades.  Totally forgot to turn on CNBC this morning and for some reason thought they would report after market close.

Ended up doing Dad's and Mom's estimated taxes, took care of some of his bills, and checked out his health insurance info for next year.  However, I need to talk to him, and I don't care if we get into a screaming match.  This should have waited till the weekend.  There was no reason to do this today. I have to set some ground rules. This cost me, as I just sold WMT at 99.41 for a loss. And usually I would go to my go-to pot stock, TLRY instead of making a dumb move on WMT.  So, and opportunity cost as well.  Also, sold NVDA at 103.89 for a nice profit (at least I did something right).  Was going to keep it till after earnings, but don't want to risk it.  We'll soon find out if I made a good or bad move.

It seems that since my divorce, my family and friends do not respect my time.  I need to put an end to it.  

Sorry to rant, but I am a little angry about work and at my Dad.  Mom's cool though.  She made minestrone soup and roasted chicken with little round potatoes and some salad.  At least I enjoyed that.

Question, since when you retired; do people, esp. family seem to disrespect your time and ask for favors and such?  And if so, how did you handle it?

I'm going to have a beer and take a nap, and talk to you later in the evening.

 

[DarterBlue]

30 minutes ago, ohio said:

You're right about WMT.   Got home at about 1:30 last night.  The girl replacing me came in over 50 minutes late.  Have to talk to the supervisor to dock her an hour or to fire her.  She can't be doing this.  Plus I'm fed up with doing double shifts.  So, they have to hire another person or get rid of the first shift guy.  I'm not 25 any more, and can't take all these hours.

Got up around 9 a.m.  to look at the markets, bought NVDA.  And dad called that he needed me to come over.  So, I bought WMT before I left on a whim thinking they would report after hours.  Dumb move on my part.  Usually I get up and look at the markets and turn on CNBC and then make well thought out trades.  Totally forgot to turn on CNBC this morning and for some reason thought they would report after market close.

Ended up doing Dad's and Mom's estimated taxes, took care of some of his bills, and checked out his health insurance info for next year.  However, I need to talk to him, and I don't care if we get into a screaming match.  This should have waited till the weekend.  There was no reason to do this today. I have to set some ground rules. This cost me, as I just sold WMT at 99.41 for a loss. And usually I would go to my go-to pot stock, TLRY instead of making a dumb move on WMT.  So, and opportunity cost as well.  Also, sold NVDA at 103.89 for a nice profit (at least I did something right).  Was going to keep it till after earnings, but don't want to risk it.  We'll soon find out if I made a good or bad move.

It seems that since my divorce, my family and friends do not respect my time.  I need to put an end to it.  

Sorry to rant, but I am a little angry about work and at my Dad.  Mom's cool though.  She made minestrone soup and roasted chicken with little round potatoes and some salad.  At least I enjoyed that.

Question, since when you retired; do people, esp. family seem to disrespect your time and ask for favors and such?  And if so, how did you handle it?

I'm going to have a beer and take a nap, and talk to you later in the evening.

 

1. Regarding the situation with work, I don't mind occasionally covering for a coworker. However, if it becomes habitual, then that is a problem. Also, it is helpful that they give me the heads up that they are running late and/or are unable to make it. To be constantly covering for someone implies a lack of respect on their part, both for the job, and for their coworkers. I understand that some individuals lives are a mess. However, a lack of regard for others is not the solution and is indicative of a self centered person.

2. Regarding a lack of respect for one's time here are my comments. First, yes, since I stopped working some individuals, from my spouse to acquaintances have assumed I could just fill in and help them out without notice. My response has generally been as follows on the first infraction: I will help you out this time; however, going forward you need to be respectful of the fact I may have other plans or matters of a personal nature that need my attention. In such cases, I will not be able to help you. The more advance notice you give me, the more likely I can fit your requests into my schedule. In other words, I am firm and honest with them, without trying to totally blow them off unless, of course, I don't value the relationship. Regarding Dad and his estimated taxes, you should let him know that this is best done on your day off. Being familiar with the process, it is not as if he did not know that payments were coming due or were past due. 

Finally, regarding your trading, it is a good thing you covered the NVDA trade at a profit. They missed earning after the bell and the stock is down over 12% as I type this. WMT was just an unfortunate error on your part but you did not pay too severely. 

My five day winning streak came to a close today to the tune of $5,660. However, looking at the overall market action, if I were long I would not be particularly happy. I have a feeling that the selling may resume as soon as tomorrow, based on the volume and overall price action. For now, I am very comfortable remaining short. I was tempted to add to the PUTS on the weakness in them, but my assessment was that the odds of another day or two of strength are probably close to 50% and being fairly heavily invested in the PUTS already, I did not think adding to the position provided the best risk/reward. 

[ohio]

She has been doing this for months, ever since she transferred to this site.  Last night's excuse was that she fell asleep and rushed over as soon as could.  Now, I can understand that working the third shift is hard, and taking a small nap before going to work can cause one to oversleep and be late.  But she is almost always a few minutes late, and I never get compensated for the extra time that I have to put in.  Plus, I it makes it tougher for me to wake up in the morning and look at the stock market.  Plus the morning guard is older and retired, and calls in due to illness. I understand that, but they have to get someone else to cover for him.  I put in 56 hours weeks for the last three weeks, and it's taking its toll on me.

Thanks for the advice on having family give advance notice.  I love Dad, but he is the type of person who wants things now, irregardless of others concerns and loves to talk on the phone when I'm trying to trade in the morning.  So, he probably won't respect giving advanced notice.  I got tricked into helping him out today, he made it sound like it was due today.  Don't want to turn the phone off completely because there could be an emergency, but will put the phone down if it's not from now on.  Let him get mad, maybe he won't call for every little thing. 

Got lucky on selling NVDA or I would have lost about 14 grand. I was up and wasn't certain it would beat estimates.  WMT loss was not too bad, but had I not been rushed and stayed home I probably would have bought TLRY instead and made quite a bit.  So an opportunity cost as well.  Another thing that I just saw was that natural gas took big hit this morning and DGAZ was a good play for those that jumped in.  Don't know exactly why, but will find out.  DGAZ and UGAZ might be future plays ifTthey continue to have huge swings.

It sucks that your winning streak came to a halt.  Tough to say what Mr. Market will due tomorrow, however the futures are currently down so you may gain back some tomorrow.  Long term, I think the market is more likely to fall, but retail sales could make for a bumpy ride.  Even if they are better than expected, there still could be concerns about interest rate hikes.  As far as adding more puts, it's probably better to be on the side of caution when you are not highly certain of short term direction.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

[ohio]

13 hours ago, ohio said:

She has been doing this for months, ever since she transferred to this site.  Last night's excuse was that she fell asleep and rushed over as soon as could.  Now, I can understand that working the third shift is hard, and taking a small nap before going to work can cause one to oversleep and be late.  But she is almost always a few minutes late, and I never get compensated for the extra time that I have to put in.  Plus, I it makes it tougher for me to wake up in the morning and look at the stock market.  Plus the morning guard is older and retired, and calls in due to illness. I understand that, but they have to get someone else to cover for him.  I put in 56 hours weeks for the last three weeks, and it's taking its toll on me.

Thanks for the advice on having family give advance notice.  I love Dad, but he is the type of person who wants things now, irregardless of others concerns and loves to talk on the phone when I'm trying to trade in the morning.  So, he probably won't respect giving advanced notice.  I got tricked into helping him out today, he made it sound like it was due today.  Don't want to turn the phone off completely because there could be an emergency, but will put the phone down if it's not from now on.  Let him get mad, maybe he won't call for every little thing. 

Got lucky on selling NVDA or I would have lost about 14 grand. I was up and wasn't certain it would beat estimates.  WMT loss was not too bad, but had I not been rushed and stayed home I probably would have bought TLRY instead and made quite a bit.  So an opportunity cost as well.  Another thing that I just saw was that natural gas took big hit this morning and DGAZ was a good play for those that jumped in.  Don't know exactly why, but will find out.  DGAZ and UGAZ might be future plays ifTthey continue to have huge swings.

It sucks that your winning streak came to a halt.  Tough to say what Mr. Market will due tomorrow, however the futures are currently down so you may gain back some tomorrow.  Long term, I think the market is more likely to fall, but retail sales could make for a bumpy ride.  Even if they are better than expected, there still could be concerns about interest rate hikes.  As far as adding more puts, it's probably better to be on the side of caution when you are not highly certain of short term direction.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

Bought 1000 shares of UGAZ at 134.68.  Looks like it will go up through out the day. Have to hold on till Monday so I can't sell it or I get a reg T. Ran out of open cash. Going to the mall.  Then work at 4.  Talk to you tomorrow.

[DarterBlue]

On 11/11/2018 at 8:22 AM, DarterBlue said:

After rallying on all cylinders during the first three trading days, the market stalled out Thursday and Friday. Realizing that it was bumping up against resistance on Wednesday, I took the opportunity to add to my short positions by adding another 8  LEAP Put contracts. At the close of business Friday, the 40 Put contracts now owned had a market value of $49,070 on a cost basis of $47,579.82, for an unrealized net profit of $1,490.18. More specifically, the QQQ Puts had an unrealized profit of $2,042.59, offset by a net loss of $552.41 on the SPY Puts. At this juncture I am as short as I intend to be in this market. 

Despite finding at least temporary support in the latter two trading days of last week, the market, as I expected it to, had a pretty bad week. The range of losses was from 1.4% on small caps represented by the Russell 2000 to 2.2% on the DOW. The NASDAQ lost over 2%. Over the course of the week, my positions in the 40 PUT contracts gained approximately $5,600. At the close of business Friday, their market value was $54,690 on a cost basis of $47,579.82, for an unrealized gain of $7,110.18. More specifically, the SPY Puts showed a gain of $2,557.59 while the QQQ Puts were up $4,552.59. 

The rebound on Thursday, seemed relatively tepid to me. Therefore, I was not surprised that Friday, the indices closed mixed with the NASDAQ indices losing ground, though the other indices were up. In fact, the averages seemed about to rollover at about 12:35. However, at this time, news came out from Trump Administration sources that a trade deal with the Chinese seemed more likely than not as the Chinese wanted to do one. Why anyone sane would give a shred of credibility to any such information from the current administration is beyond me. In fact I was tempted to go further short on the news. However, risk management is a critical component of what I do, so I did not. 

As we go into the week of Thanksgiving, bulls can find solace in the fact that this has historically been one of the most positive weeks on the calendar historically. However, I have a feeling it will be more like November 2007 and 2008 than the norm. So, here is my plan. If the averages rally into Thanksgiving, I will add another 8 to 10 contracts to my existing positions. Yes, I feel that strongly that December will be a bad month. However, if I am right, and this upcoming week is blah to negative, then I will sit tight on my existing shorts.