The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[DarterBlue]

Just now, noonereal said:

trump is causing real havoc with his attacks on the fed. 

 

 

Just now, noonereal said:

trump is causing real havoc with his attacks on the fed. 

 

And Steven Mnuchin has got to be  the dumbest MFer that ever made Partner at Goldman Sachs!

[HSFBfan]

10 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Sure, but POTUS made the tyros mistake of bragging on the stock market's performance. Then he enacts legislation that is going to hurt those same multi-national companies. He needs to learn to STFU! He would be a horrible trader BTW. 

The fed isnt exactly helping. The fed cant cost the economy trillions. There was no reason imo for the latest interest rate hike. 

Oh btw were NYers we never STFU

[ohio]

Bought 1000 shares of DGAZ at 79.21.   Thinking of buying TQQQ  and SVXY, but will wait till Wednesday.  Might buy UCO and UWT if oil hits 42, maybe even before depending on the storage report.

[ohio]

20 minutes ago, ohio said:

Bought 1000 shares of DGAZ at 79.21.   Thinking of buying TQQQ  and SVXY, but will wait till Wednesday.  Might buy UCO and UWT if oil hits 42, maybe even before depending on the storage report.

Sold DGAZ at 82.67.   Gonna enjoy Christmas.

[RedZone]

tick, tick, tick, tick...

 

[DarterBlue]

7 minutes ago, RedZone said:

tick, tick, tick, tick...

 

But we all know Rana is a hater. After all, I posted her interviews on this very board back in the summer. And we all know I am a hater. LOL!!😍

Most would agree she is hot, though. At least we can all get along on that!!

[noonereal]

47 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

But we all know Rana is a hater. After all, I posted her interviews on this very board back in the summer. And we all know I am a hater. LOL!!😍

Most would agree she is hot, though. At least we can all get along on that!!

who is RANA? Do you have a pic? (I heard  you say hot so I need to see)

[DarterBlue]

49 minutes ago, noonereal said:

who is RANA? Do you have a pic? (I heard  you say hot so I need to see)

http://www.ranaforoohar.com/about/

Judge for yourself. My tastes tend to be a bit exotic, though, so there is that. 

[DarterBlue]

2 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Buy Calls to Open: Between 11:05 and 11:35 am I bought 15 contracts each of the January 18, 2019 DIA 230 and the QQQ 153 at varying prices. The approximate cost in total is about $12,000.

I will post the full, accurate results of this short term trade later this afternoon.

Well, I misspoke by more than a bit on my purchases. Yes, I did buy, but I screwed up and bought one too many DIA calls and one two few QQQ calls. I also did not spend nearly as much as I intended to, as the total cost including commissions amounted to $8,897.26. But this may be a blessing in disguise. 

Bought 16, DIA 230, January 18, 2019 Calls Cost $5,360.30 Closing Value $3,680 Loss (unrealized) $1,680.30

Bough 14 QQQ 153, January 18, 2019 Calls, Cost $3,536.96, Closing Value $2,345.50 Loss (unrealized) $1,191.46

On the day, down $2,871.76. Not a good start to this trade and made even worse by the fact we closed at day lows. 

[ohio]

4 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Well, I misspoke by more than a bit on my purchases. Yes, I did buy, but I screwed up and bought one too many DIA calls and one two few QQQ calls. I also did not spend nearly as much as I intended to, as the total cost including commissions amounted to $8,897.26. But this may be a blessing in disguise. 

Bought 16, DIA 230, January 18, 2019 Calls Cost $5,360.30 Closing Value $3,680 Loss (unrealized) $1,680.30

Bough 14 QQQ 153, January 18, 2019 Calls, Cost $3,536.96, Closing Value $2,345.50 Loss (unrealized) $1,191.46

On the day, down $2,871.76. Not a good start to this trade and made even worse by the fact we closed at day lows. 

Hope things work in your favor.  I too was surprised that the market closed so much lower. I thought about buying TVIX, but was afraid that the market would rebound.

We'll see if investors are more in a Christmas spirit on Thursday.  If the Dems and Trump can come to some type of an agreement over the next several days then the markets should start to rebound in the near term future.  If not, it could be a bumpy ride that could go up, then down, then up, then down..... as investors will be hesitant on which direction to go.  Kind of like natural gas prices. lol

[DarterBlue]

41 minutes ago, Sportsnut said:

Whats exotic about her?

Not bad looking but exotic?

You must be from Minnesota.

She is half Persian, Farsi.  There are significant differences between her heritage and that of the typical white American.  For a woman in her mid 40s with two kids I think she looks fine. That she has brains, too, is only a plus. 

[ohio]

43 minutes ago, Sportsnut said:

Whats exotic about her?

Not bad looking but exotic?

You must be from Minnesota.

Not sure what your definition of exotic is... but here is some info on her.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rana_Foroohar

 

[DarterBlue]

Status of the Market: Stocks had their worst Christmas eve ever and by a wide margin of more than 3.5 times. Usually Christmas eve is a quiet day with a bias to the upside. Not this year! On the day, every single index and major subcategory except gold cratered.  The losses ranged from 1.95% on the Russell to 2.91% on the DOW. The S&P 500 essentially joined the NASDAQ indices and small and mid cap stocks in bear market territory closing down 19.9%. Beneath the hood, the internals read, as follows: 4-1 and nearly 3-1 stocks down compared to up on the NYSE and NASDAQ, respectively. During the course of the day, I took the weakness as a sign to place a short-term trade long. To this end I purchased 16 DIA January 18, 2019 call options and 14 QQQ January 18, 2019 call options. The purchase price was a net $8,897.26. By day’s end, these options were in the hole to the tune of $2,871.76, leaving a closing value of $6,025.50. I would have been much better served putting on a volatility trade straddling long and short options.

As I type this, early Christmas morn, things look grim for the bulls. Overnight, the futures are down to the tune of over 3%. Barring some unprecedented Christmas day intervention by the authorities, the indices will most certainly crater at the open Wednesday. The million dollar question is whether we will get a crash (a decline of 10% or more) or whether an intermediate bottom is put in during the course of the trading day. Earlier, I had mused that the likelihood of a crash was in the 20 to 25% range. At this juncture, I would up that probability to at least 33%. From where I stand, there are clearly cockroaches, if not rats beneath the subsurface of the US financial system. If we crash these will be exposed in short order. Obviously, my long trade was as ill timed as my exit from my PUT Options positions (had I held them through close on Monday, I would have been up another $18,500 on them). Still, I count myself lucky. Pity those that have been long this whole stretch since the September top was put in.

[ohio]

8 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Status of the Market: Stocks had their worst Christmas eve ever and by a wide margin of more than 3.5 times. Usually Christmas eve is a quiet day with a bias to the upside. Not this year! On the day, every single index and major subcategory except gold cratered.  The losses ranged from 1.95% on the Russell to 2.91% on the DOW. The S&P 500 essentially joined the NASDAQ indices and small and mid cap stocks in bear market territory closing down 19.9%. Beneath the hood, the internals read, as follows: 4-1 and nearly 3-1 stocks down compared to up on the NYSE and NASDAQ, respectively. During the course of the day, I took the weakness as a sign to place a short-term trade long. To this end I purchased 16 DIA January 18, 2019 call options and 14 QQQ January 18, 2019 call options. The purchase price was a net $8,897.26. By day’s end, these options were in the hole to the tune of $2,871.76, leaving a closing value of $6,025.50. I would have been much better served putting on a volatility trade straddling long and short options.

As I type this, early Christmas morn, things look grim for the bulls. Overnight, the futures are down to the tune of over 3%. Barring some unprecedented Christmas day intervention by the authorities, the indices will most certainly crater at the open Wednesday. The million dollar question is whether we will get a crash (a decline of 10% or more) or whether an intermediate bottom is put in during the course of the trading day. Earlier, I had mused that the likelihood of a crash was in the 20 to 25% range. At this juncture, I would up that probability to at least 33%. From where I stand, there are clearly cockroaches, if not rats beneath the subsurface of the US financial system. If we crash these will be exposed in short order. Obviously, my long trade was as ill timed as my exit from my PUT Options positions (had I held them through close on Monday, I would have been up another $18,500 on them). Still, I count myself lucky. Pity those that have been long this whole stretch since the September top was put in.

Hope you are enjoying your Christmas, my friend.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Hope you are enjoying your Christmas, my friend.

I am, thanks. Just spoke to some folks I haven't seen in awhile. Also had a few people drop by that I had not seen in years. 

As I approach mid 60s, I have a great appreciation for each additional year I tack on with decent health intact. 

Hope your Christmas has been great, too!

[ohio]

Bought 100 shares AMZN at 1375.16, 1000 UTW premarket  at 7.66, and 3200 TQQQ shares at average of 31.16.

Plan of holding for a few days, unless the news turns sour.

Good luck on your calls.  Good green day today.

Took a nice walk by the lake today.  Still hard to believe the sun came out today.

Have to get ready for work, so we'll talk tomorrow.

 

[DarterBlue]

On 12/24/2018 at 11:45 AM, DarterBlue said:

Buy Calls to Open: Between 11:05 and 11:35 am I bought 15 contracts each of the January 18, 2019 DIA 230 and the QQQ 153 at varying prices. The approximate cost in total is about $12,000.

I will post the full, accurate results of this short term trade later this afternoon.

Sell Calls to Close: Today, shortly after 3 pm, my limit sells on both the QQQ and DIA options positions were triggered and I sold the 30 contracts (16 DIA and 14 QQQ) for 3.80 on the QQQ and 4.20 on the DIA. Total profits from the sale amounted to $3,038.34 on an investment of $8,897.26 or 34.15%. This was far from a perfect trade as I bought too soon and sold too early. However, it proved to be a quick way to make a decent profit on a counter trend rally.I placed the limit sell at 2 pm when I was feeling sleepy and felt I was not going to be able to monitor the close. Had I stayed up, though I would have still liquidated the position, I would have probably waited till the final 20 minutes and made at least another $1,000 from the trade. But I will not complain, as the position was down about 30% at the end of the day Monday when I bought it. 

Today's Market Action: Today's gains were impressive. But they were very much in character with counter trend rallies seen in bear markets. For in such markets, stocks will get deeply oversold as the bears are relentless sellers on the way down. Then you will have these huge, very impressive, counter trend rallies that will erase a good chunk of the losses in a couple days. These are due to short covering and bargain hunters. Unfortunately, they tend to be short and serve to suck in investors who think they herald the end of the bear market. While it is possible that today's rally may be the real deal, I doubt it. As such I will be looking to re-initiate short positions over the next few trading days. Given the strength of today's rally, it is possible that my new short positions may be entered as soon as tomorrow. But as usual, I will let the market be my guide. 

[ohio]

19 hours ago, ohio said:

Bought 100 shares AMZN at 1375.16, 1000 UTW premarket  at 7.66, and 3200 TQQQ shares at average of 31.16.

Plan of holding for a few days, unless the news turns sour.

Good luck on your calls.  Good green day today.

Took a nice walk by the lake today.  Still hard to believe the sun came out today.

Have to get ready for work, so we'll talk tomorrow.

 

Bought 2500 WATT at 5.80 premarket.  

Darn Brits.....knocked everything down overnight, especially oil.  That country has a major gambling problem.

Sold TQQQ 34.78, UWT 8.71, AMZN 1443.33

[DarterBlue]

23 minutes ago, ohio said:

Bought 2500 WATT at 5.80 premarket.  

Darn Brits.....knocked everything down overnight, especially oil.  That country has a major gambling problem.

Sold TQQQ 34.78, UWT 8.71, AMZN 1443.33

In bear markets the big money wants to sell. Don't blame the Brits. if it was not them, it would have been something else. 

[ohio]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

In bear markets the big money wants to sell. Don't blame the Brits. if it was not them, it would have been something else. 

Dumped WATT at 7.03

Yah, you're probably right.  Plus big money can be located in the Bahamas and still short on the Asian markets as they have people across the globe working 24/7.  

Guess, I was a little upset that we did not have a two day rally, as I probably would have sold either way today.

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

Dumped WATT at 7.03

Yah, you're probably right.  Plus big money can be located in the Bahamas and still short on the Asian markets as they have people across the globe working 24/7.  

Guess, I was a little upset that we did not have a two day rally, as I probably would have sold either way today.

We had a two day rally. Unfortunately, it occurred in one day. I was looking to go short via PUTS again today. But with the markets so weak, I have deferred this trade. While it probably still works, I don't want to risk a sloppy entry. 

[ohio]

23 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

We had a two day rally. Unfortunately, it occurred in one day. I was looking to go short via PUTS again today. But with the markets so weak, I have deferred this trade. While it probably still works, I don't want to risk a sloppy entry. 

Maybe it's wise to do nothing since the markets pulled back so much.   Plus there is always a threat of a China trade deal and/or the egomaniac politicians getting together and bringing an end to this silly Govt shutdown, though unlikely.

I'm in all cash and probably won't do anything this week as well, unless I see the market go one way or the other decisively.  Same goes for the energy stocks.

[DarterBlue]

16 minutes ago, ohio said:

Maybe it's wise to do nothing since the markets pulled back so much.   Plus there is always a threat of a China trade deal and/or the egomaniac politicians getting together and bringing an end to this silly Govt shutdown, though unlikely.

I'm in all cash and probably won't do anything this week as well, unless I see the market go one way or the other decisively.  Same goes for the energy stocks.

When I covered the calls yesterday, I was thinking that if we opened flat to up today, I would buy LEAP PUTS. However, given we opened decisively down, even though we have rallied back some, I am inclined to wait for a better risk/reward opportunity. I have realized profits of close to $57k on the year. Nothing wrong with calling it that and looking towards better setups in the New Year.

This race favors the marathoner. Many a sprinter burns out over the course a cycle. My goal is to do this until I either derive no fun from it or till I feel too old and weak to do so. This requires patience. Even though I think I am a good market analyst, I certainly make my share of mistakes. I have to constantly remind myself that I cannot afford to let any of this mistakes damage me too severely. 

[ohio]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

When I covered the calls yesterday, I was thinking that if we opened flat to up today, I would buy LEAP PUTS. However, given we opened decisively down, even though we have rallied back some, I am inclined to wait for a better risk/reward opportunity. I have realized profits of close to $57k on the year. Nothing wrong with calling it that and looking towards better setups in the New Year.

This race favors the marathoner. Many a sprinter burns out over the course a cycle. My goal is to do this until I either derive no fun from it or till I feel too old and weak to do so. This requires patience. Even though I think I am a good market analyst, I certainly make my share of mistakes. I have to constantly remind myself that I cannot afford to let any of this mistakes damage me too severely. 

The PUTS will always be there.  Nice to see you are in the green for the year.  My motto is if you don't know what to do; do nothing.

Bought 1300 UGAZ at 64.12 and 3000 TQQQ 32.33. Also 3300 shares of UWT at 8.36.   Only have $1033 tradable cash. Figured I'd go all out today.  We'll see how it works out.  This pullback was a bit too much, I believe.

So, I am definitely done till Monday, unless my positions crash tomorrow.

Hi ho, hi ho off to work I go.  Lol

 

[DarterBlue]

30 minutes ago, ohio said:

The PUTS will always be there.  Nice to see you are in the green for the year.  My motto is if you don't know what to do; do nothing.

Bought 1300 UGAZ at 64.12 and 3000 TQQQ 32.33. Also 3300 shares of UWT at 8.36.   Only have $1033 tradable cash. Figured I'd go all out today.  We'll see how it works out.  This pullback was a bit too much, I believe.

So, I am definitely done till Monday, unless my positions crash tomorrow.

Hi ho, hi ho off to work I go.  Lol

 

The market has rallied back to mostly positive. Somehow, it does not ring true. If we get another up-day tomorrow, I probably short the close. Not a conspiracy theorist, but it smacks of the plunge protection team at work. 

We will see what tomorrow brings!