The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[DarterBlue]

56 minutes ago, THS2011 said:

im 25 lol

Then you should give thanks to the almighty for being able to stomach $25,000 of losses at 25. Most 25 year olds don't have a dime in the market except for the few thousand that may be in a 401K plan!

[THS2011]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Then you should give thanks to the almighty for being able to stomach $25,000 of losses at 25. Most 25 year olds don't have a dime in the market except for the few thousand that may be in a 401K plan!

I've been close to projectile vomitting a few times

 

[dan in daytona]

7 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Dan your presence was missed in Orlando. Saw Bender, he looked tired but seemed in good spirits. 

Merry Christmas, man!!

Yeah, heard he has good days and bad one's. He's got a hard road ahead. Peace be with you, my friend.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, dan in daytona said:

Yeah, heard he has good days and bad one's. He's got a hard road ahead. Peace be with you, my friend.

Next time we meet up, wings on me. Got to spread a bit of my good trading luck with someone I consider a friend!

[World Citizen]

On 12/19/2018 at 1:08 PM, DarterBlue said:

You are a good man. I appreciate your posts on a variety of topics, also. You add balance to a board that tends to be dominated by some pretty hateful people. You restore my faith in humanity!

Thank you.  I appreciate that and I feel the same way.  

[DarterBlue]

Like clockwork stocks closed broadly and significantly down again on much higher quadruple witching volume. The catalyst was the impending government shutdown. At least so say the analysts. Whatever the reason, this is one of the most oversold stock markets I have seen in several years. And there does not seem to be any respite based on today’s action. What is most maddening is that wholesale panic has not come to the fore yet. Thus, we have the daily grind of a few percentage points which by the end of this week have added up to the largest weekly losses in stocks since October 2008.

Because I was knowledgeable and experienced enough to first stand aside and then take a short position via LEAP Put Options, I have the luxury of maintaining perspective. Sure, I liquidated the puts early. As of today, I have left over $10,000 on the table. But I have made money, not lost it. And, that right there enables me to keep things in perspective. The range of losses today was from 1.66% on the NYSE to 3.15% on the NASDAQ 100. Losing stocks led by margins of 3.5-1 and 3.75-1 on the NYSE and NASDAQ. New 52 week highs were 10 versus, 2,162 new lows. Not as bad as yesterday, but still really, really bad.

If this carnage continues for a few more days, I may buy some January or February calls 2019. I don’t usually employ this kind of strategy, as it would be a very short-term trade, but if the setup is there, I will do it. Due to much more risk being involved in such a trade, it will be limited to no more than $12,000. Why? Because if it goes against me, I could easily lose the entire amount placed in this trade. Still, at this juncture, you have to figure that the rubber band can only stretch this far to the downside without a snap back rally.

With the above said, if we don’t get a snap back rally soon, then we will get a crash. However, we don’t think this is very likely so if the market goes that route it will be without my participation. We will rather look for the snap back rally and go long calls if we can. This would be a very short-term trade with the expectation of reversing it and going short within days to weeks depending on the rally's strength. If for any reason we think it will be very short, we will not go long but stand aside and look for the right point to once again go short. We will again use LEAP PUTS if we do go short. When I do, I expect to deploy between $45,000 and $50,000 in such a position.

One reason for covering on Thursday, is that the overall size of the position had become too large. I know some may be wondering why I approach trading this way. The simple answer is that controlling risk is paramount to staying ahead of this game. No matter how good you are you will make bad trades. The trick is to not make any of these inevitable errors do major damage to your equity. If you do this and have a winning strategy, the profits pile up in due course. 

[DarterBlue]

21 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

With the above said, if we don’t get a snap back rally soon, then we will get a crash. However, we don’t think this is very likely so if the market goes that route it will be without my participation. We will rather look for the snap back rally and go long calls if we can. This would be a very short-term trade with the expectation of reversing it and going short within days to weeks depending on the rally's strength.

After doing my homework, I am even more convinced that we are going to have the mother of all days, most likely Wednesday. While the market is open on Monday, it is a half day, and I don't expect many traders to be at work. If they are and send the market sharply in one direction, I suspect it would be lower and that would be really, really bad. But I don't think Monday will be a bad day or, for that matter, a really good day. No, I expect it to be quiet. Wednesday is when I expect all hell will break loose. And, I am not sure whether its to the upside or to the downside. I will say this: If it is to the downside, it will probably be at the very least a mini-crash. Yes, I mean that. For the market is so oversold, if it cannot find traction, it will collapse.

With that said, I think the probability of a collapse/crash is at most 25%. So, I expect the market to rally sharply Wednesday, and I will most likely take the quiet Monday to initiate some short term Calls on the DIA and the QQQ. I will decide on the date (mostly likely February 15, 2019) and strike prices tomorrow. Bear in mind this will be a very short term trade with no more than $12,000 at risk. On reflection, perhaps the best trade would be a straddle as given the expected volatility, one would probably make money in either direction if the right combination of calls and puts were executed. I am reluctant to do this trade, though, as two of the five accounts that I trade would not allow this type of trade due to being self directed IRAs. But we will see. As usual, I will post the trades shortly after they are made. 

Again, bear in mind that the above anticipated trades are very short term. I still think we are in a monster bear market. As soon as the anticipated snap back exhausts itself, I will buy LEAP PUTS again!

[ohio]

On 12/21/2018 at 9:13 AM, THS2011 said:

im 25 lol

Nice age.  Pretty sure there are people who would give up every earthly possession they own, to be 25 again.

[ohio]

On 12/21/2018 at 8:33 PM, DarterBlue said:

Like clockwork stocks closed broadly and significantly down again on much higher quadruple witching volume. The catalyst was the impending government shutdown. At least so say the analysts. Whatever the reason, this is one of the most oversold stock markets I have seen in several years. And there does not seem to be any respite based on today’s action. What is most maddening is that wholesale panic has not come to the fore yet. Thus, we have the daily grind of a few percentage points which by the end of this week have added up to the largest weekly losses in stocks since October 2008.

Because I was knowledgeable and experienced enough to first stand aside and then take a short position via LEAP Put Options, I have the luxury of maintaining perspective. Sure, I liquidated the puts early. As of today, I have left over $10,000 on the table. But I have made money, not lost it. And, that right there enables me to keep things in perspective. The range of losses today was from 1.66% on the NYSE to 3.15% on the NASDAQ 100. Losing stocks led by margins of 3.5-1 and 3.75-1 on the NYSE and NASDAQ. New 52 week highs were 10 versus, 2,162 new lows. Not as bad as yesterday, but still really, really bad.

If this carnage continues for a few more days, I may buy some January or February calls 2019. I don’t usually employ this kind of strategy, as it would be a very short-term trade, but if the setup is there, I will do it. Due to much more risk being involved in such a trade, it will be limited to no more than $12,000. Why? Because if it goes against me, I could easily lose the entire amount placed in this trade. Still, at this juncture, you have to figure that the rubber band can only stretch this far to the downside without a snap back rally.

With the above said, if we don’t get a snap back rally soon, then we will get a crash. However, we don’t think this is very likely so if the market goes that route it will be without my participation. We will rather look for the snap back rally and go long calls if we can. This would be a very short-term trade with the expectation of reversing it and going short within days to weeks depending on the rally's strength. If for any reason we think it will be very short, we will not go long but stand aside and look for the right point to once again go short. We will again use LEAP PUTS if we do go short. When I do, I expect to deploy between $45,000 and $50,000 in such a position.

One reason for covering on Thursday, is that the overall size of the position had become too large. I know some may be wondering why I approach trading this way. The simple answer is that controlling risk is paramount to staying ahead of this game. No matter how good you are you will make bad trades. The trick is to not make any of these inevitable errors do major damage to your equity. If you do this and have a winning strategy, the profits pile up in due course. 

Looks like you'll play it by ear.  Take what the market gives you.

[ohio]

21 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

After doing my homework, I am even more convinced that we are going to have the mother of all days, most likely Wednesday. While the market is open on Monday, it is a half day, and I don't expect many traders to be at work. If they are and send the market sharply in one direction, I suspect it would be lower and that would be really, really bad. But I don't think Monday will be a bad day or, for that matter, a really good day. No, I expect it to be quiet. Wednesday is when I expect all hell will break loose. And, I am not sure whether its to the upside or to the downside. I will say this: If it is to the downside, it will probably be at the very least a mini-crash. Yes, I mean that. For the market is so oversold, if it cannot find traction, it will collapse.

With that said, I think the probability of a collapse/crash is at most 25%. So, I expect the market to rally sharply Wednesday, and I will most likely take the quiet Monday to initiate some short term Calls on the DIA and the QQQ. I will decide on the date (mostly likely February 15, 2019) and strike prices tomorrow. Bear in mind this will be a very short term trade with no more than $12,000 at risk. On reflection, perhaps the best trade would be a straddle as given the expected volatility, one would probably make money in either direction if the right combination of calls and puts were executed. I am reluctant to do this trade, though, as two of the five accounts that I trade would not allow this type of trade due to being self directed IRAs. But we will see. As usual, I will post the trades shortly after they are made. 

Again, bear in mind that the above anticipated trades are very short term. I still think we are in a monster bear market. As soon as the anticipated snap back exhausts itself, I will buy LEAP PUTS again!

Not sure what I'll do this week in anything.  Maybe enjoy a stress free Christmas.But if the market opens up really low, I may buy TQQQ or SVXY.  It it opens high, then I may buy TVIX or SVXY.

Not sure which way natural gas will go, so I'll play if I see an opportunity.  Oil prices are really low, and are tempting.  However, the next support line may be around 42 if it dips further.  T he next support line after that is around 39, which is not that likely.   Then of course it could go to 26 after that or below.  Though there is less than a 1 percent chance of that happening.   $42 is probably the lowest it will go, and then I will buy UCO.   But if I see a large morning dip, then I may go long as well.  I know it seems confusing.

[ohio]

On 12/20/2018 at 9:46 PM, DarterBlue said:

It's kind of funny. We did not date till almost ten months after we met. At first she was just a part of a study group my other friend (who introduced us) and I had started over the Spring break. The relationship just evolved over time. 

You Jamaicans, you do every thing the noble way.  Lol

We Croatians just go for it.  Maybe that's why you're still happily married and I have have an ex.  Lol.

Just kidding.  Trying to get in a festive holiday spirit.

Hope the both of you have an enjoyable evening and a Merry Christmas.

[HSFBfan]

 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, HSFBfan said:

 

Dude, the market does not care. Only the market's reaction matters. That is the key lesson to be learned as a trader: how the market reacts to news. Not the news itself.

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Dude, the market does not care. Only the market's reaction matters. That is the key lesson to be learned as a trader: how the market reacts to news. Not the news itself.

They arent reporting this news anywhere. If they did than market might react different. 

[DarterBlue]

Buy Calls to Open: Between 11:05 and 11:35 am I bought 15 contracts each of the January 18, 2019 DIA 230 and the QQQ 153 at varying prices. The approximate cost in total is about $12,000.

I will post the full, accurate results of this short term trade later this afternoon.

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, HSFBfan said:

They arent reporting this news anywhere. If they did than market might react different. 

Believe what you want. The smart money always has accurate information. And the smart money is all that really matters. The rest is drivel!!

[HSFBfan]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Believe what you want. The smart money always has accurate information. And the smart money is all that really matters. The rest is drivel!!

Well it's being shown that companies have made big money on paying people nothing by moving their operations to other countries. Now when its time to pay up their profits and stock prices are taking a tumble. 

[noonereal]

11 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Buy Calls to Open: Between 11:05 and 11:35 am I bought 15 contracts each of the January 18, 2019 DIA 230 and the QQQ 153 at varying prices. The approximate cost in total is about $12,000.

I will post the full, accurate results of this short term trade later this afternoon.

God Bless. 

[DarterBlue]

4 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Well it's being shown that companies have made big money on paying people nothing by moving their operations to other countries. Now when its time to pay up their profits and stock prices are taking a tumble. 

Sure, but POTUS made the tyros mistake of bragging on the stock market's performance. Then he enacts legislation that is going to hurt those same multi-national companies. He needs to learn to STFU! He would be a horrible trader BTW. 

[DarterBlue]

Just now, noonereal said:

God Bless. 

I rate my chances of making money on this trade at about 55%. Usually I seek better odds. We will see how this works out!

[noonereal]

11 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Believe what you want. The smart money always has accurate information. And the smart money is all that really matters. The rest is drivel!!

market id down 400. this is bad. Today was defiantly a rally day. 

[noonereal]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

I rate my chances of making money on this trade at about 55%. Usually I seek better odds. We will see how this works out!

i rate my odds at 45% when I hit the tables. 

[noonereal]

trump is causing real havoc with his attacks on the fed. 

 

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, noonereal said:

market id down 400. this is bad. Today was defiantly a rally day. 

There is a solid 20% chance we get a drop exceeding 10% on Wednesday. Today's action is unprecedented in so many ways. It is still a minority chance, but it is very real!

[noonereal]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

There is a solid 20% chance we get a drop exceeding 10% on Wednesday. Today's action is unprecedented in so many ways. It is still a minority chance, but it is very real!

this is all Trump driven. Fact.