Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 The author of the Imperial College study that scared everyone saying 500,000 could die in the U.K. and 2.2 million in the US, has revised his estimates, saying that U.K. deaths could be around 20,000 and not half a million. This might comport with what we are seeing - Italy’s numbers are flattening in growth with 8,000 dead. If they lose 20,000 or so - that would be the same as 100,000 here - except our death rate is considerably lower. A recent projection out of Oxford is along these lines. There is a good write-up on this at hotair.com 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 The feeling is this has been out there longer and already spread more - and we are closer to the peak than people realize 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxchoboian Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bormio said: The feeling is this has been out there longer and already spread more - and we are closer to the peak than people realize Yes, we all hope we are closer to the peak for sure. But putting credence in a new guess by someone who was obviously guessing in the first place is not much different than me being convinced my neighbor yelling from across the street to me with his take on this whole deal is on to something. The way this is impacting the healthcare industry is dangerous; the unbelievable affect this is having on the economy here and abroad is horrible; and the uncertainty of the duration is frustrating as hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thc6795 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bormio said: The feeling is this has been out there longer and already spread more - and we are closer to the peak than people realize Please Sir dont give anyone any hope thats a bad thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 minute ago, maxchoboian said: Yes, we all hope we are closer to the peak for sure. But putting credence in a new guess by someone who was obviously guessing in the first place is not much different than me being convinced my neighbor yelling from across the street to me with his take on this whole deal is on to something. The way this is impacting the healthcare industry is dangerous; the unbelievable affect this is having on the economy here and abroad is horrible; and the uncertainty of the duration is frustrating as hell. I am not saying change what we are doing. But China flattened early, Italy is flattening at a relatively low number of deaths. They are not just guessing - they are modeling as experienced scientists and are reassessing their model based on data. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxchoboian Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bormio said: I am not saying change what we are doing. But China flattened early, Italy is flattening at a relatively low number of deaths. They are not just guessing - they are modeling as experienced scientists and are reassessing their model based on data. I understand, and hope we get through this ASAP (and am optimistic we will). Even the experienced scientists are not sure what is going on, as evidenced by the initial forecast now being revised to much lower numbers. Who's to say more revisions won't be coming once they have more data? "Guessing" was a stretch by me, but not entirely. Which is one reason it is so frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bormio said: I am not saying change what we are doing. But China flattened early, Italy is flattening at a relatively low number of deaths. They are not just guessing - they are modeling as experienced scientists and are reassessing their model based on data. They are also on total lockdown in thise places. I do hope we flatten early, but, I'm not gonna be overly optimistic that we will. Hope is a good thing, but, going back to acting as if this thing is done before it is isn't smart. Pretty sure that those esrlier estimates were if no mitigating actions were taken. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 It was the Imperial College study that got the UK government to change tack, and got the scientific community in the US to much more strongly push lockdowns etc. it also crashed world markets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: They are also on total lockdown in thise places. I do hope we flatten early, but, I'm not gonna be overly optimistic that we will. Hope is a good thing, but, going back to acting as if this thing is done before it is isn't smart. Pretty sure that those esrlier estimates were if no mitigating actions were taken. The point is it may be the spreading that caused the flattening and not the lockdowns primarily. The length of time between China locking down and their peak was very short - makes the idea the lockdown was the cause of the flattening questionable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bormio said: It was the Imperial College study that got the UK government to change tack, and got the scientific community in the US to much more strongly push lockdowns etc. it also crashed world markets That's interesting, because in all of my reading about this, today is the first time I heard of that study. I'd contend that the inabilities to track the virus caused the actual crash, as the markets understood lockdowns and moving away from business as usual would happen. But, by all means, we can blame that study for creating a panic. At least ypu've moved from the media bias theory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: The point is it may be the spreading that caused the flattening and not the lockdowns primarily. The length of time between China locking down and their peak was very short - makes the idea the lockdown was the cause of the flattening questionable. I figured the spread started well before they said. Maybe as much as a month in China even. Doesn't change the fact that letting the guard down before we know would be just as irresponsible or moreso than failing to track the spread to begin with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said: That's interesting, because in all of my reading about this, today is the first time I heard of that study. I'd contend that the inabilities to track the virus caused the actual crash, as the markets understood lockdowns and moving away from business as usual would happen. But, by all means, we can blame that study for creating a panic. At least ypu've moved from the media bias theory. That study definitely caused the U-turn in U.K. policy and deeply impacted our task force. It was written about in numerous places. And when we started with more stringent measures, the markets rapidly declined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thc6795 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 Not trying to say the Wuhan virus isn’t real. Again I have never said that. Does anyone personally know anyone who has it? I still do not. I have asked here, Twitter and another football board I am on. Still not one person knows anyone personally 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: I figured the spread started well before they said. Maybe as much as a month in China even. Doesn't change the fact that letting the guard down before we know would be just as irresponsible or moreso than failing to track the spread to begin with. Agreed, but starting earlier means way more doublings have occurred and many more people infected - meaning a way lower mortality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 minute ago, thc6795 said: Not trying to say the Wuhan virus isn’t real. Again I have never said that. Does anyone personally know anyone who has it? I still do not. I have asked here, Twitter and another football board I am on. Still not one person knows anyone personally Yes I do - but they traveled recently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 The Imperial College Report was also the one that said we would have to socially distance for 18 months - the market hated that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thc6795 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bormio said: Yes I do - but they traveled recently sorry to hear that I hope they recover completely. Doc I understand the seriousness of the Wuhan virus. Do you believe the world has over reacted? We had a million lives lost when H1N1 hit and we were nowhere near what is happening now. I am asking Borimo, not looking for any other response. Thank you, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bormio said: The Imperial College Report was also the one that said we would have to socially distance for 18 months - the market hated that too. I'm going to stay with Osterholm. He's still proving to have been 95% correct on everything so far. Is/was he a part of that report? He definitely said that we will need to take safety measures for until a vaccine is ready, which COULD be up to 18 months. I'm sticking with him because he never lied, he never spun anything and he looked at the camera cool, calm and collected and told the listener what to expect. Markets be fucking damned. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 Makes me fucking sick to my stomach to see a supposed doctor appear more worried about a god damned greed market than human life. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 Just now, thc6795 said: sorry to hear that I hope they recover completely. Doc I understand the seriousness of the Wuhan virus. Do you believe the world has over reacted? We had a million lives lost when H1N1 hit and we were nowhere near what is happening now. I am asking Borimo, not looking for any other response. Thank you, Epidemics are hard to predict. Smaller numbers of deaths can be a problem when they occur in such a time frame to overwhelm the system. For all of Italy’s tragedy, they have lost 8,000 people to date. They lost 410,000 in the 1918 flu. Uncertainty has reigned in this case - we do not know when it started. Wuhan may not have locked down for 2 months or more into the epidemic and had 3,000 dead in an area of 60 million people. That would suggest a very low mortality rate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said: Makes me fucking sick to my stomach to see a supposed doctor appear more worried about a god damned greed market than human life. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Eff off - I am not worried about the market for myself. I merely said that widely quoted and cited report had a major impact on the markets - which is true. Google it. Try Huff Post, Mother Jones, NYT and WP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bormio said: Eff off - I am not worried about the market for myself. I merely said that widely quoted and cited report had a major impact on the markets - which is true. Google it. Try Huff Post, Mother Jones, NYT and WP. I don't care about the markets. You apparently do. Every post has something to do with them and how this affected them or that affected them. I'm pretty sure at this point you're a market doctor. So you fuck off, market doc. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thc6795 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: Eff off - I am not worried about the market for myself. I merely said that widely quoted and cited report had a major impact on the markets - which is true. Google it. Try Huff Post, Mother Jones, NYT and WP. be careful the bitch will ban you 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thc6795 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: Makes me fucking sick to my stomach to see a supposed doctor appear more worried about a god damned greed market than human life. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. upset stomach...get checked for Wuhan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxchoboian Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, thc6795 said: I have asked here, Twitter and another football board I am on. Still not one person knows anyone personally All kinds of people have responded to you. Don't be scared...take them off Ignore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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