DarterBlue Posted September 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 Stocks closed broadly lower on lower volume. However, for a down day, the selling was not severe. In fact, it was of little concern coming on the back of the big up day Monday. Still, this is the kind of day that can lull you to sleep. At the close, stocks finished in the middle of the day’s range (some of the indices closed in the lower half). The range was from a loss of .29% on the NASDAQ to .55% on the MID Cap index. It is interesting that my two options positions had both the best and worse index performance of the day (not really quite so, as my options are on the QQQ and not the composite). Losing stocks led by a 19-11 margin on the NYSE but only 18-17 on the NASDAQ. For a down day, it was not bearish at all. However, that could change given the nearness to the election with the first debate set for this evening. On the day, I lost $720 or .12%. The reason for the loss was the horrible day ZM suffered as it was down 4.5% or $3,989. This was offset by a gain of 1.03% on NEM or $428. The put positions were up $2,824. Given the volatility in my current holdings, the day was fine. However, I am a bit concerned about ZM for the third day in the last four sessions it was subject to heavy selling. The only up day over this period was Friday, when it gained nearly 7%. However, that was on below average volume. It is obvious that a large institution is lightening up on the stock. Given its huge run up this year, that is not abnormal. However, it does bear watching. Tomorrow, I may close the PUTS. However, this is subject to their behavior post-debate. A big up day and I will be out. A selloff or another choppy day like today, and I will likely keep them into Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 Buy Disney They are laying off 28000 workers Profits will go higher as they pay less people Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrecoRoman Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 On 9/27/2020 at 2:55 PM, imaGoodBoyNow said: @DarterBlue is it possible to get a business loan from like China ? I heard over seeseas they are way more lenient on paperwork you gotta present Unfortunately we already are. They vendor finance us by lending us money to buy their consumer goods (at least thus far but I think that is about to change in a big way bringing a huge wake up call to us) so a great deal of the credit expansion in the US has been enabled by them. We could never have such a bloated sloppy fiancial sector if we actually had to export to pay for our imports (like just about every other country in the world does) opposed to exporting out worthless iou's that we just run off a printing press But to answer your direct question - no because you would have to borrow in yuan to obtain chinese banking system credit guidleines so unless it was for business in China would make no sense and you'd get killed on the exchange rate borrwoing in yuan and converting to dollars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted September 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said: +367!! Um, 329. Fake news! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted September 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 Stocks closed broadly higher on massively higher volume. However, there was one major issue. As volume accelerated, the averages mostly faltered inside the final hour and forty five minutes of trading. At the close, most indices had given up at least half their gains and some as much as 80% of their gains. Thus, although it looked like a very nice accumulation day, in reality it was more of a stalling day. At the close, the indices gained from .2% on the Russell small cap index to 1.2% on the thirty stock DOW. Advancing stocks led 8-7 on the NYSE and 18-17 on the NASDAQ. Overnight, the futures had been down after reversing on the Presidential debate. However, good private sector payroll data and an upwardly revised GDP deficit for the second quarter turned the futures around enabling the indices to gap up at the open. At day highs, the DOW had gained over 550 points and the NASDAQ indices over 2%. Much of this was given up by the close. On a personal note, I gained 116 or .02% on the day. Not bad considering I am net short by a wide margin. Both my long positions (ZM and NEM) gained approximately 1% for a total of approximately $1,300 in gains. However, this was offset by losses of over $1,100. I did not close the short positions in the PUT options due to the chance in market direction late in the day. Hopefully, I did not squander the chance to get out with relatively little damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 30, 2020 Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 JPMorgan Chase to pay record $920 million to resolve U.S. investigations into trading practices https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/29/jpmorgan-chase-to-pay-920-million-to-resolve-us-investigations-into-trading-practices-.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Ohio orders GM to pay $28 million for closing Lordstown plant https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/ohio-orders-gm-pay-28-000429114.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Get in on BETZ!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 The stock market closed broadly higher on what appears to be lower volume. The two NASDAQ indices, as well as secondary stocks were very strong and closed near day highs. At the close, the range was from a very small gain of .13% on the DOW to 1.56% on the Russell. Advancing stocks led on both exchanges to the tune of 21-10 on the NSYE and 2-1 on the NASDAQ. This was good but not extreme breadth and it puts the market into mildly overbought territory. Overall, this was a good day for bullish investors. The lack of volume was the only negative. On the day, I lost $4,799.26 or .8%. ZM was up 2.75% or $2,318. NEM was down .98% or $414. Unfortunately, the PUTS tanked losing $6,652. I am now down almost $21k on them on a position with a cost basis of about $99.5k. I did not close them. This is a violation of my rules. I should have closed the position yesterday or at the latest by the middle of today. This is one of the reasons I don’t go with fundamental analysis. It tends to keep you in trades when the weight of the evidence tells you they are going to end badly. When I initiated these puts, I set a maximum tolerable loss on them of 50%. Clearly I don’t what to lose that much especially when the odds do not favor them ending profitably. Perhaps, tomorrow will cure me of my stubbornness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 The Market's Response to the News on Trump: Well, I may have been bailed out of my ill timed PUTS trade. Historically, in times where a sitting President has died, fallen seriously ill, or has had an aborted assassination attempt on his life, the market has sold off. But it has just as quickly rebounded. The futures are down sharply this morning. So much so, that if they open where they are now, I will have recouped the great majority, if not all my losses on the PUTS. So, what is my take going forward? Like I stated, markets usually rebound very quickly from situations like this. However, there are some caveats here: 1. We are very close to an election. 2. The country is very deeply divided. Therefore, the election is very consequential. 3. Given 1 and 2, we may not rebound as quickly this time. I feel that it all comes down to the severity of POTUS's illness. If he is asymptomatic or has mild symptoms, then as soon as this is clear, the market will rebound. However, if he is seriously ill, or if he dies, then my chaos trade, though poorly timed, may yield rich rewards. With the above in mind, what will I do today? It depends. If the market shows resilience in the face of this news, I will cover it and take my losses. However, if we open weak and trend lower or stay at the weak opening levels, I will likely carry the trade into at least Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, DarterBlue said: The Market's Response to the News on Trump: Like I stated, markets usually rebound very quickly from situations like this. This is the line to truly focus on. The markets rebound so quickly from things like this, that it has always annoyed me that it happens at all. And it's not exclusive to this POTUS, but it sure happens WAY more with him - how many times in the last 4 years has a tweet sent the market off a cliff? I can think of at least 2-3 instances where he tweeted something stupid and the market crashed for 2 days before coming back within 10 days since his tweet was either 1. not true (some fake deal he made up) or 2. a policy he says is coming...that never does. Now, as you were getting at, there is addendums to this. If he gets really sick, then the market will react with at least some basis to do so. If he is an asymptomatic carrier and shows no signs of advanced sickness over the next week - this possible day of selloffs will be more overreaction. This whole situation is dripping with irony. He goes on about how great the market is, and now he's going to possibly send stocks plummeting due to his own careless/asshole demeanor to a worldwide pandemic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 The stock market finished mixed on mixed volume today. Some indices were well off day lows, while others closed very close to day lows. Volume expanded on the NYSE but contracted on the NASDAQ. It was indeed a strange day. The range was from a loss of 2.83% on the NASDAQ 100 to a gain of .95% on the MID Cap index. The market gapped down on news that the President and his wife, tested positive for Covid-19 following the news earlier in the day that a key member of his staff, Hope Hicks, had tested positive on Wednesday when accompanying POTUS to a political rally. All indices were down at least more than 1.5% at the open. However, by mid-morning, many had recovered a significant portion of their losses. Some of them held on to the recovery and even expanded on it to close higher. Others, most notably, the two NASDAQ indices ended up giving back the recovery and closing very near day lows. After the close, it was reported that POTUS had been taken to Walter Reed Memorial Hospital and will spend the next several days there. Further information on his condition has not been forthcoming. But I am guessing that if there is not a positive update over the weekend, this will lead to market weakness Monday, at least at the open. On the day, I gained $4,784 or .81%. At the open I had been up over $14k. Both my long stocks, ZM and NEM were down slightly. Earlier ZM had been up over 4% but gave it up late as the NASDAQ sold off. My PUTS were mixed with the NASDAQ puts gaining almost $8k, but the Mid Cap puts losing $2.7k. I decided to carry over both positions through at least the weekend due to the current uncertainty surrounding the President’s condition and its effect on the race, Presidency, and our national security. Still, they are on a relatively short leash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Up 362 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, HSFBfan said: Up 362 It believes Trump. The country has gone totally insane. America is finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: It believes Trump. The country has gone totally insane. America is finished. Trump gets better and the stocks take off Over 28000 again Signaling a trump win cant say for sure yet America is doing great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 +465 at end of day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Stocks closed broadly higher on news the President will be discharged from hospital this evening. At the close, the range was from a gain of 1.57% on the NYSE to 2.77% on the Russell 2000. Advancing stocks led by margins of just under 3-1 on the NYSE and by 3-1 on the NASDAQ. The rally was broad based and the breadth was good. So, what’s not to like with it? Not much, it was mostly fine. The two caveats I have, one minor, and the other a bit more significant are: 1. It was news driven. It had been indicated from Sunday that Trump may be released today. Late in the day, his doctors confirmed this. Secondly, volume was missing as it was lower on both exchanges compared with Friday. The market is also now a bit overbought. However, in the early stages of an up leg, markets can remain overbought for a long time. On the day, I lost $13,780 or 2.3%. That puts me below the $100,000 gain mark for the first time since August. I am now up only about $99k. Both stock positions, ZM and NEM closed up on the day. One gained 1.35% (NEM) and the other, ZM, gained .7%. However, these were offset by big losses in the PUT options of $8k and $6.6k on the QQQ PUTS and MDY puts, respectively. Cumulatively, I am now down $30.5k on these options putting me very close to the maximum tolerable loss I was willing to take. Truth be told, given the market’s action, I should have covered them on Friday and most certainly today. However, for some reason I cannot justify, I have chosen not to. The road to hell, I suppose, is paved with good intentions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Stocks opened flat, meandered most of the day, and then plunged at about 2:55 pm when POTUS announced there would be no more stimulus negotiations before the election. Wall Street had been counting on additional rounds of funding to preserve industries such as airlines and hospitality. It does not appear to be. To be honest, this has come as no surprise to me. The Republicans showed no interest back in May, and as for the Democrats, with DJT on the ropes there is no political incentive. At the close, the range was from a loss of .18% on the Russell 2000 to a loss of 1.89% on the NASDAQ 100. Volume expanded significantly which was bearish. Losing stocks led by margins of 19-12 on the NYSE and 4-3 on the NASDAQ. Breadth was not bad given how much the headline indices lost. It was mitigated by strength in the small and mid cap issues. On the day, I closed up $2,500 or .43%. Losses in both ZM and NEM were mitigated by gains totaling $5,286 in the PUT options. This reduced my cumulative losses to a little over $25,000 in the PUTS. Today was a weird day. The negative reversal was encouraging to me as a bear. However, it was news driven. Had Trump not made the announcement we would likely have closed mixed to higher. As we get closer to the elections, I expect more volatility as an agitated President tries to pull any rabbit he can find out of the hat. My guess is he fails and then it will come down to how he takes the loss. My guess is more chaos ensues. This is the principal reason I have not closed the Puts and taken the loss: the lack of stability in the White House. I think POTUS would rather die than accept defeat and a cornered animal is always very dangerous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 22 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said: +465!!! #winning LOL, welp this one didn't age well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 45 minutes ago, DownSouth said: LOL, welp this one didn't age well. He's just a troll. No market knowledge in his head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Netflix Faces Indictment In Texas Over Controversial French Film ‘Cuties’ https://www.oann.com/netflix-faces-indictment-in-texas-over-controversial-french-film-cuties/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 John McAfee indicted for tax evasion, arrested in Spain https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/05/tech/john-mcafee-tax-evasion-sec-cryptocurrency/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, HSFBfan said: Netflix Faces Indictment In Texas Over Controversial French Film ‘Cuties’ https://www.oann.com/netflix-faces-indictment-in-texas-over-controversial-french-film-cuties/ What's wrong with Cuties? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: What's wrong with Cuties? Google it Sexualization of young females Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 30 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Google it Sexualization of young females Was not aware of this flick. Interesting .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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