Ohio Week 9 Predictions/Discussion

[Coletrain06]

Colerain (8-0) vs. Fairfield (7-1) - Colerain 24 Fairfield 21

Colerain completely dominated Lakota East 42-0 last week. All the scoring was done in the first half, and was a complete destruction, which was a little surprising as I fully expected Lakota East to put up a decent fight. The defense forced turnovers and held Lakota East to 75 total yards, and that's including an entire half with backups. The offense is moving the ball and scoring equally among any of our 4 RB/WB's + QB + WR's + 2-3 TE's. Theres so many weapons. 

Fairfield is coming in hot. They are loaded with athletes and have been crushing teams. They have a good OLine, a good QB, one of the best RB's in the state in Jutahn McLean, a very good TE, and a loaded front 7 on Defense. Their only loss is to a good Springfield team in a game where their QB Jeff Tyus didn't play the 2nd half and they lost 15-14 on a late Springfield 2 pt conversion. They were also in a close back and forth game with Lakota East before pulling away late in the 4th. Fairfield has had a shutdown run Defense, but have been a little vulnerable to the pass.

This is a huge game and probably the biggest GMC game since Colerain/Middletown in 2009. The game last year was a great game in the first half... Fairfield was on the 2 yd line about to score and go into halftime with the lead when they inexplicably threw a pass that ended up as a pick 6. After that momentum swing, Colerain came out in the 2nd half and dominated......Fairfield is better than they were last year. They have a great offense and a very good defense. Colerain will have their hands full. A big difference this year will be the Colerain D Line and Eric Phillips size and length which is significantly better than last year. He has been able to clog holes/deflect passes, and herd the opposing offense. I expect Fairfield to attack Colerain's short DB Kendricks, as he seems to be the only DB that other teams will throw at. IMO Colerain needs to pressure Tyus all game. Ultimately I think this game will come down to who can respond to adversity the best. Colerain has done that for years as evidenced by their current 73 game conference winning streak and 144-1 conference record since 1999.

Mentor (7-1) @ Euclid (7-1) - Euclid 38 Mentor 35

Mentor's QB Kipp has an injured shoulder and was held out of last week's game against Solon and probably won't be back until the playoffs. Mentor lost 29-28 in OT on a Solon 2 pt conversion. Solon has a good Defense which makes it even tougher to play without a star QB. Mentor's star WR Floriea is their backup QB, so they lose a threat at WR without Kipp at QB. 

Euclid has rolled everybody except Iggy. Iggy beat Euclid 21-6 in Week 3. Euclid generally has a very talented team with some offensive firepower. Their defense isn't really anything to write to home about. 

This is a tough game to call. Without Kipp, I see this as a toss up. Euclid just rolled the same Solon team (21-0) that just beat Mentor.  Mentor's Defense isn't anything to write home about either, and they will probably have trouble slowing down Euclid. I'm not sure if they'll have enough firepower to go score for score with Euclid. I feel like Mentor will come up with a way to win this one, but I'm gonna take a gamble on this one and say Euclid takes it.

St. Edward (5-2) @ Moeller (6-2) - Ed's 28 Moe 17

Ed's gets back into business after essentially 2 weeks off. Ed's has really found their groove recently and look ready for a playoff run.

Moeller got smoked last week against Iggy. Iggy stuffed virtually everything Moe tried, and as predicted  Eichenberg totally disrupted the Moe offense. Moe's Defense is good enough when they can get at least some help from the offense. 

I don't see Moe having much success on offense. I also don't think Ed's will have trouble outscoring Moe. Eds playoff hopes hang in the balance.  

St. Ignatius (6-2) @ St. Xavier (4-4) - Iggy 21 X 14

Iggy has been on a roll lately. They beat Moeller 32-7 last week. Delahunty is finding his groove at QB, and on Defense, Iggy has been lights out. LB Eichenberg is the real deal and completely changes the game when he's in. 

St. X has rebounded nicely since their loss to Elder. The Bombers have been inconsistent this season. They have looked very solid the last 2 weeks against La Salle and Clarkson North. Honestly, X has only looked bad against Elder. I think X is the best GCL team that had one bad week. 

This is a very big game for each team's playoff hopes. Both teams likely need to win at least one of their last 2 games. Iggy plays Eds next, and X plays Louisville St. X next week......In this matchup, I like Iggy. X's QB Hudepohl is a great QB, but he has had a lot of trouble when he's been pressured. I expect Iggy to bring pressure all game, especially with X's lack of a strong running game. On the other side of the ball, I think Iggy will be able to score enough to win.

Pickerington Central (7-1) @ Reynoldsburg (7-1) - Pick Central 30 Reynoldsburg 21

Pick Central beat Pick North 16-7 last week. Reynoldsburg's best win was against Pick North. Pick Central should take this one, but I think they'll have to earn it.

Elder (4-4) vs. Vianney MO (6-2) - Elder 28 Vianney 27

Elder played close with Winton Woods in the first half, but Winton Woods was able to get a lead on Elder and then just send pressure with their stout D front. As predicted Winton Woods speed and power was too much for Elder as WW won 28-10.

Vianney has 2 blowout losses against Fayetteville AR and Christian Brothers MO. Vianney has beaten almost all of their other opponents pretty decisively.

I don't know what to make of this game. If Vianney can present some of the problems that WW did, they should beat Elder, but this is a must win game for Elder's playoff hopes, and the game is at the Pit. I'll favor Elder in this one.

La Salle (4-3) vs. Trinity Catholic MO (6-2)- La Salle 17 Trinity Catholic 14

La Salle has a good defense, and a crappy offense. La Salle will struggle to score. Their Defense will need to pull this one out. With La Salle's playoff hopes hanging in the balance, they will need to win this one at home.

[RedZone]

crying concha wanted me to stop by and say the economy is looking great for these Ohio teams!

[hardhit1]

11 hours ago, Coletrain06 said:

Colerain (8-0) vs. Fairfield (7-1) - Colerain 24 Fairfield 21

Colerain completely dominated Lakota East 42-0 last week. All the scoring was done in the first half, and was a complete destruction, which was a little surprising as I fully expected Lakota East to put up a decent fight. The defense forced turnovers and held Lakota East to 75 total yards, and that's including an entire half with backups. The offense is moving the ball and scoring equally among any of our 4 RB/WB's + QB + WR's + 2-3 TE's. Theres so many weapons. 

Fairfield is coming in hot. They are loaded with athletes and have been crushing teams. They have a good OLine, a good QB, one of the best RB's in the state in Jutahn McLean, a very good TE, and a loaded front 7 on Defense. Their only loss is to a good Springfield team in a game where their QB Jeff Tyus didn't play the 2nd half and they lost 15-14 on a late Springfield 2 pt conversion. They were also in a close back and forth game with Lakota East before pulling away late in the 4th. Fairfield has had a shutdown run Defense, but have been a little vulnerable to the pass.

This is a huge game and probably the biggest GMC game since Colerain/Middletown in 2009. The game last year was a great game in the first half... Fairfield was on the 2 yd line about to score and go into halftime with the lead when they inexplicably threw a pass that ended up as a pick 6. After that momentum swing, Colerain came out in the 2nd half and dominated......Fairfield is better than they were last year. They have a great offense and a very good defense. Colerain will have their hands full. A big difference this year will be the Colerain D Line and Eric Phillips size and length which is significantly better than last year. He has been able to clog holes/deflect passes, and herd the opposing offense. I expect Fairfield to attack Colerain's short DB Kendricks, as he seems to be the only DB that other teams will throw at. IMO Colerain needs to pressure Tyus all game. Ultimately I think this game will come down to who can respond to adversity the best. Colerain has done that for years as evidenced by their current 73 game conference winning streak and 144-1 conference record since 1999.

Mentor (7-1) @ Euclid (7-1) - Euclid 38 Mentor 35

Mentor's QB Kipp has an injured shoulder and was held out of last week's game against Solon and probably won't be back until the playoffs. Mentor lost 29-28 in OT on a Solon 2 pt conversion. Solon has a good Defense which makes it even tougher to play without a star QB. Mentor's star WR Floriea is their backup QB, so they lose a threat at WR without Kipp at QB. 

Euclid has rolled everybody except Iggy. Iggy beat Euclid 21-6 in Week 3. Euclid generally has a very talented team with some offensive firepower. Their defense isn't really anything to write to home about. 

This is a tough game to call. Without Kipp, I see this as a toss up. Euclid just rolled the same Solon team (21-0) that just beat Mentor.  Mentor's Defense isn't anything to write home about either, and they will probably have trouble slowing down Euclid. I'm not sure if they'll have enough firepower to go score for score with Euclid. I feel like Mentor will come up with a way to win this one, but I'm gonna take a gamble on this one and say Euclid takes it.

St. Edward (5-2) @ Moeller (6-2) - Ed's 28 Moe 17

Ed's gets back into business after essentially 2 weeks off. Ed's has really found their groove recently and look ready for a playoff run.

Moeller got smoked last week against Iggy. Iggy stuffed virtually everything Moe tried, and as predicted  Eichenberg totally disrupted the Moe offense. Moe's Defense is good enough when they can get at least some help from the offense. 

I don't see Moe having much success on offense. I also don't think Ed's will have trouble outscoring Moe. Eds playoff hopes hang in the balance.  

St. Ignatius (6-2) @ St. Xavier (4-4) - Iggy 21 X 14

Iggy has been on a roll lately. They beat Moeller 32-7 last week. Delahunty is finding his groove at QB, and on Defense, Iggy has been lights out. LB Eichenberg is the real deal and completely changes the game when he's in. 

St. X has rebounded nicely since their loss to Elder. The Bombers have been inconsistent this season. They have looked very solid the last 2 weeks against La Salle and Clarkson North. Honestly, X has only looked bad against Elder. I think X is the best GCL team that had one bad week. 

This is a very big game for each team's playoff hopes. Both teams likely need to win at least one of their last 2 games. Iggy plays Eds next, and X plays Louisville St. X next week......In this matchup, I like Iggy. X's QB Hudepohl is a great QB, but he has had a lot of trouble when he's been pressured. I expect Iggy to bring pressure all game, especially with X's lack of a strong running game. On the other side of the ball, I think Iggy will be able to score enough to win.

Pickerington Central (7-1) @ Reynoldsburg (7-1) - Pick Central 30 Reynoldsburg 21

Pick Central beat Pick North 16-7 last week. Reynoldsburg's best win was against Pick North. Pick Central should take this one, but I think they'll have to earn it.

Elder (4-4) vs. Vianney MO (6-2) - Elder 28 Vianney 27

Elder played close with Winton Woods in the first half, but Winton Woods was able to get a lead on Elder and then just send pressure with their stout D front. As predicted Winton Woods speed and power was too much for Elder as WW won 28-10.

Vianney has 2 blowout losses against Fayetteville AR and Christian Brothers MO. Vianney has beaten almost all of their other opponents pretty decisively.

I don't know what to make of this game. If Vianney can present some of the problems that WW did, they should beat Elder, but this is a must win game for Elder's playoff hopes, and the game is at the Pit. I'll favor Elder in this one.

La Salle (4-3) vs. Trinity Catholic MO (6-2)- La Salle 17 Trinity Catholic 14

La Salle has a good defense, and a crappy offense. La Salle will struggle to score. Their Defense will need to pull this one out. With La Salle's playoff hopes hanging in the balance, they will need to win this one at home.

Cole,

i like your picks and gambling on Euclid.

if Kipp does not play as expected then Euclid should win. I believe only you and I agree on this other than perhaps Ohio mentioning the same.

[93CardinalsFan]

Coletrain - great coverage, as always.  So glad you take the time to do this.  My comments on a few of these games.

Colerain (8-0) vs. Fairfield (7-1) - I am a little more bullish on our Cardinals than you are.  I realize that FF is good...and they are.  Wouldn't expect any real national bump from beating them but if they enter the playoffs and knock off a couple of GCL teams, folks will realize how good a win this was for Colerain.  

I see the game close for the first half and then adjustments taking over in the 2nd half.  I am particularly interested to see how both teams starters look in the 4th quarter as I'm guessing none of them, on either side, have played a lot late in games the last several weeks.  I believe that FF QB Jeff Tyus will make a mistake in the passing game which will result in a turnover which will swing the momentum.  Also, very curious to see how FF RB McClain does against this defense.  He just picked up an offer to Penn State and is rolling in B1G10 love.  He is fast and shifty and should be the focus of our defense.  When it's all said and done, I can't see FF holding the Cardinals to less than 4 scores and I just can't see FF scoring 5 times on a STARTING defense that has given up like 5 or 6 TD's ALL YEAR.  On Senior night, the Cardinals are victorious, 35-14.

St. Edward (5-2) @ Moeller (6-2) - Totally agree on this one.  Moeller is not great.  They aren't bad, but to say they are much better than above-average is a stretch.  I think St. Edward is very good.  They have to travel, but they do that all the time.  I look for them to shut down Moeller's "offense", for lack of a better word, and score enough to secure a playoff spot for them.  Eagles, 24-13

St. Ignatius (6-2) @ St. Xavier (4-4) - We are in sync on this one as well.  However, the Bombers have a magical way of getting phantom calls their way late in the year at home on Saturdays so who knows!  LOL  Ignatius is an excellent defense and competent enough offense to keep this game at bay.  If StX QB Hudepohl's last two weeks are to be believed, he has certainly found something that works.  However, that was with RB Chris Payne finding some success that I don't think is necessarily going to be there on Saturday at the Cockpit (he he).  I am thinking an even lower scoring game but with the Wildcats still coming out on top, 17-7.

 

-93CardinalsFan

[zulu1128]

Colerain will handle Fairfield pretty comfortably, methinks. Same with Ed and Iggy over X and Moe. 

 

Also, LOL @ Chipmunk for #tryingsohard, as usual. 

[prepsbill65]

27 minutes ago, 93CardinalsFan said:

Coletrain - great coverage, as always.  So glad you take the time to do this.  My comments on a few of these games.

Colerain (8-0) vs. Fairfield (7-1) - I am a little more bullish on our Cardinals than you are.  I realize that FF is good...and they are.  Wouldn't expect any real national bump from beating them but if they enter the playoffs and knock off a couple of GCL teams, folks will realize how good a win this was for Colerain.  

I see the game close for the first half and then adjustments taking over in the 2nd half.  I am particularly interested to see how both teams starters look in the 4th quarter as I'm guessing none of them, on either side, have played a lot late in games the last several weeks.  I believe that FF QB Jeff Tyus will make a mistake in the passing game which will result in a turnover which will swing the momentum.  Also, very curious to see how FF RB McClain does against this defense.  He just picked up an offer to Penn State and is rolling in B1G10 love.  He is fast and shifty and should be the focus of our defense.  When it's all said and done, I can't see FF holding the Cardinals to less than 4 scores and I just can't see FF scoring 5 times on a STARTING defense that has given up like 5 or 6 TD's ALL YEAR.  On Senior night, the Cardinals are victorious, 35-14.

St. Edward (5-2) @ Moeller (6-2) - Totally agree on this one.  Moeller is not great.  They aren't bad, but to say they are much better than above-average is a stretch.  I think St. Edward is very good.  They have to travel, but they do that all the time.  I look for them to shut down Moeller's "offense", for lack of a better word, and score enough to secure a playoff spot for them.  Eagles, 24-13

St. Ignatius (6-2) @ St. Xavier (4-4) - We are in sync on this one as well.  However, the Bombers have a magical way of getting phantom calls their way late in the year at home on Saturdays so who knows!  LOL  Ignatius is an excellent defense and competent enough offense to keep this game at bay.  If StX QB Hudepohl's last two weeks are to be believed, he has certainly found something that works.  However, that was with RB Chris Payne finding some success that I don't think is necessarily going to be there on Saturday at the Cockpit (he he).  I am thinking an even lower scoring game but with the Wildcats still coming out on top, 17-7.

 

-93CardinalsFan

Cute comments......regarding X.  

For the records, 3 reasons for X's success the last 2 weeks.  

* adjustments to offensive line blocking assignments

* receivers running deeper, more diagonal passing routes

* Defense.... allowed one TD each to both LaSalle and Canada North.  

Playing the "Jesuit Brothers" is just like playing Colerain for X.  No surprises, you know what they are going to do.  You just need to execute, and have no turnovers.  That gives you a shot.    Bombers by 4 over the Wildcats 21-17.  X has a sense of urgency which makes a difference IMO.

[Coletrain06]

My Colerain Fairfield prediction is an attempt to remove bias. 

I think very highly of this Colerain team. Probably higher than any pollster currently has them.....but I also realize it may just be bias and the result of playing weaker teams. 

Fairfield is a great test. If Colerain wins by multiple scores, then I think my high regard for this team is justified

 

[JerseyMan128]

1 hour ago, Coletrain06 said:

My Colerain Fairfield prediction is an attempt to remove bias. 

I think very highly of this Colerain team. Probably higher than any pollster currently has them.....but I also realize it may just be bias and the result of playing weaker teams. 

Fairfield is a great test. If Colerain wins by multiple scores, then I think my high regard for this team is justified

 

ColeTrain,

thank you for posting these each week. I always read your analysis and enjoy following OH HSFB from a distance. 

 

Well done as always 

[Coletrain06]

4 hours ago, JerseyMan128 said:

ColeTrain,

thank you for posting these each week. I always read your analysis and enjoy following OH HSFB from a distance. 

 

Well done as always 

Thanks man, I try to make it easy enough to read and relatable for hsfb fans from anywhere. Glad to hear you read and enjoy!

[Cossacks]

9 hours ago, JerseyMan128 said:

ColeTrain,

thank you for posting these each week. I always read your analysis and enjoy following OH HSFB from a distance. 

 

Well done as always 

Second that. Really enjoy the Ohio threads and Coletrains insight.

[Coletrain06]

Colerain forces a fumble on the first play of the game, then punch in a TD on the first offensive play.

Colerain 7

Fairfield 0

[Coletrain06]

Colerain with a 90 yd punt!, Fairfield fumbles on the return. Colerain recovers on the 2. Punches it in on next play. Xp no good

Colerain 13

Fairfield 0

 

[hardhit1]

Fairfield scores

13-7 Colerain

[Coletrain06]

Fairfield nice drive for a TD, followed by a Colerain TD

Colerain 20

Fairfield 7

[hardhit1]

Mentor 9-7 over Euclid after 1

[hardhit1]

Olmsted Falls 13-10 over Avon Lake

AL #4 team in Ohio D2

[hardhit1]

Reynoldsburgh 14 Pick Central 0

[Coletrain06]

Colerain passes for a TD

Colerain 27

Fairfield 7

[zulu1128]

1 minute ago, Coletrain06 said:

Colerain passes for a TD

Colerain 27

Fairfield 7

Meet the new boss.

Same as the old boss.

As expected. 

[Coletrain06]

2 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

Meet the new boss.

Same as the old boss.

As expected. 

Haha. 

Fairfield definitely looks good. Colerain just keeps forcing them into mistakes

[zulu1128]

Just now, Coletrain06 said:

Haha. 

Fairfield definitely looks good. Colerain just keeps forcing them into mistakes

When CF asked me on Yappi for some detailed analysis why I thought Colerain would win easily, I just told him there was no "science" to it....merely that history would hold... the Cards would rise to the occasion, and Fairfield wouldn't.

At the end of the day, Colerain is still Colerain...and Fairfield is still Fairfield. 

[hardhit1]

Mentor 16-7 halftime 

[Coletrain06]

Holy mackerel La Salle's offense and playcalling are so awful. They just had it 1st and goal on the 2 and threw an INT in the end zone 😂.

21 - 0 Trinity 

[hardhit1]

29 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

When CF asked me on Yappi for some detailed analysis why I thought Colerain would win easily, I just told him there was no "science" to it....merely that history would hold... the Cards would rise to the occasion, and Fairfield wouldn't.

At the end of the day, Colerain is still Colerain...and Fairfield is still Fairfield. 

Exactly 

as predicted 😩

[zulu1128]

Jinxed it LOL