Ararar Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, NYHSFAN33 said: Your quote: "What's stupid is you constantly trying to convince the members of this forum that a man who has dedicated his entire adult life to a scientific gathering of numerical data for the sole purpose of eliminating bias has suddenly forsaken his life's work for no other reason than to stick it to GA high school football.I sincerely hope this helps you realize how ridiculous you have become on this subject." Well that's fair I guess.....you didn't specifically mention CP, but I have yet to see anyone (most notably Stan or Nor) refute Peanut's assertion that there is a finite amount of points available per state to go around unless there is heavy OOS interplay reference points, which if true would be an enormous hindrance to being able to judge / rate / rank teams from different parts of the country. That's not to mention the glaring, obvious flaws in using the transitive property of scores to compare teams in any given year, which is all CP relies on. You seem like an educated guy, so I assume you realize all of that is the true point, not that he thinks Ned is specifically "sticking it to Georgia football." ECH's delivery isn't the most polished, but he has a point. And until you, nor, Stan, any of the DLS fightin' Spartans, or anybody else can knock it down with numbers, the question will remain. This is also fair.I have never argued against it not being suited for national ratings.I have to say that whatever ECHS point is gets lost in his obsession with GA and CP.None of us know exactly what formula CP used to come up with their off season ratings although ECHS told me he did he never produced proof.His conclusion is it's biased without any knowledge of why or how CP came to their off season ratings.This is why I posted what I did about Ned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 59 minutes ago, Ararar said: This is also fair.I have never argued against it not being suited for national ratings.I have to say that whatever ECHS point is gets lost in his obsession with GA and CP.None of us know exactly what formula CP used to come up with their off season ratings although ECHS told me he did he never produced proof.His conclusion is it's biased without any knowledge of why or how CP came to their off season ratings.This is why I posted what I did about Ned. Dude you are the most obtuse fool with that Ive ever seen. If you cant SEE theres something wrong with that you CANT be helped. Whatever the reason... whether I know or not is irrelevant... it looks like this every single year for GA. Even common sense says if GA always moves their scale up during the season EVERY season... stop moving them down so much and see what happens. Ned explains exactly what his formula is in these starting rating. THE POINT IS, IT MAKES MORE SENSE TO KEEP THESE STATE RANKINGS , IN THE PRESEASON, ATLEAST CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ENDED THE PRIOR SEASON... BECAUSE THAT STATE STARTED TO SET ITS OWN SCALE AND NED IS NOW MANUALLY LOWERING IT FOR NO REASON, AND HE SPECIFICALLY DOES IT TO GEORGIA EVERY YEAR. Holy fuck. I cant believe some people can get up and get dressed in the morning. Its incredible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Ararar said: What's stupid is you constantly trying to convince the members of this forum that a man who has dedicated his entire adult life to a scientific gathering of numerical data for the sole purpose of eliminating bias has suddenly forsaken his life's work for no other reason than to stick it to GA high school football.I sincerely hope this helps you realize how ridiculous you have become on this subject Yeah you can totally tell hes trying to eliminate bias when DLS was his National Champion 5 out of 6 years I believe it was...from 2010 on I believe. SoCals insanely overrated teams. REALITY... the guy has a great system. I couldnt make one like it, i admit. But I dont have to be a gardner to know if your tomatoes suck or not. I can taste it and tell. His system is designed to rate teams against each other that play each other. He says this multiple times. States play a VERY, VERY small percentage of OOS games overall, and most states only play a few different states. 1 game between a CA team and a CO team isnt going to scale those states together. And he basically says that here... there's absolutely no way to say whether a team rated a 21 in Georgia is better or worse than a team rated a 19 in Oregon, mainly because (needless to say!) no teams from Georgia have played any teams from Oregon. In other words, there's no way to determine if the entire scale of these 2 states is up a bit or down a bit in a comparison. States Hes good with the mathematics, but he cant MAKE States scale to each other if THEY DO NOT PLAY. So he trys with the starting ratings... spreading teams out, giving states points by putting a certain amount of teams in a certain spread of the rankings. -- You can see he starts California with almost a dozen teams in the Top 100. He starts New Hampshire with 0. Obviously, if all the top CA teams play each other, and if all the top NH teams play each other... CA has a much better chance of having higher teams because theres more rating points there to be had. If the top CA team has an 80 rating, and they play the #2 CA team with a rating of 79... And on the other side of the country the top NH team has a rating of 35, and they play the #2 NH team with a rating of 34... and #1 beats #2 by 20... Which set of teams will be higher after the games are played? Obviously the California teams because THEY HAD MORE POINTS TO START WITH. And this is why that screws GA, hes taking away points from them and by doing that hes taking away ranking opportunity. Why not keep starting ALL these states scales close to where they ended the prior season and keep following that trend... eventually the states will find their balance and movement will be minimal... but no he doesnt do that... he'll lower GA, and theyll rise again during the season bc hes shorting them. Ned originally made this to be a rating system for California. It wouldve been great if hed just done it for each individual state. But, to get more attention and clicks, he made a list with all the teams from all these states together... and saw it wasnt working... which he admitted, there were too many anomalies...so he tries starting ratings to try to balance the scales... it just so happens, to do that, you have to use a little bit of personal opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealCAJ Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 1 hour ago, NYHSFAN33 said: To add to this, I am not a total CP hater. What Ned has created is pretty great to see being that I am a numbers guy. The theory and even execution is excellent, but the task at hand that he is trying to accomplish is simply impossible. To make it possible would require building in advanced patterns of information into a dataset, which creates a cluster (in this case football teams in predetermined "tough" districts) in a circular loop of teams with a perceived tougher SOS aka: Not enough data points to tie all the teams together. You ever watch that movie "Sully"?...good movie. Perfect illustration why most algorithms suck.. calpreps is not even really a true algorithm to begin with. calpreps is fun to use for BS, but would be laughed out of a court of law. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealCAJ Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 peanut, has calpreps so far up his rectum he's going to start spitting out computer symbols.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 The way the ratings work are actually very very simple. There are SMALL complex adjustments... but the basis of it is very simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GloryDays Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: The way the ratings work are actually very very simple. There are SMALL complex adjustments... but the basis of it is very simple. Not that simple. You've burned through more words than 10 copies of War and Peace, and the only salient point is..... Something that hasn't truly been debated. There's not enough OOS games. Quite the find. Congrats bud, you earned it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealCAJ Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, GloryDays said: There's not enough OOS games. There's not enough anything at calpreps.... It's why 4A West Orange Stark can be #8 in TX without playing anyone in the TX Top 40.... It's a fairly tale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Calpreps/maxpreps is never going to be perfect obviously, but I think we're all happy it's around. Great database. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 I mean we could look at the amount of talent on these teams as well... http://www.rankbyoffers.com/hsfbranking/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Golfaddict wanted to see IL, PA and just the Sig6 from Nj... so here you go... #1 in IL went from #54 to #14 (Up by 40) #2 in IL went from #56 to #48 (Up by 8) #3 in IL went from #70 to #94 (Down by 24) #4 in IL went from #92 to #202 (Down by 110) #5 in IL went from #150 to #236 (Down by 86) #6 in IL went from #229 to #269 (Down by 40) #7 in IL went from #252 to #276 (Down by 24) #8 in IL went from #303 to #339 (Down by 36) #9 in IL went from #305 to #342 (Down by 37) #10 in IL went from #310 to #365 (Down by 55) Illinois went up 2, and down 8... they still made it out better than GA... but Illinois took a bit of a hit... except at the very top... Prairie Ridge moved from 54 to 14... strange considering they never even beat a "Top 300 team". And no, that doesnt mean I believe CPs rankings that none of the teams they beat were Top 300, it just means its strange for a team to move up that high on a site they never proved anything on. ==== Heres Pennsylvania... #1 in PA went from #13 to #20 (Down by 7) #2 in PA went from #72 to #21 (Up by 51) #3 in PA went from #84 to #24 (Up by 60) #4 in PA went from #104 to #55 (Up by 49) #5 in PA went from #152 to #147 (Up by 5) #6 in PA went from #153 to #163 (Down by 10) #7 in PA went from #264 to #171 (Up by 93) #8 in PA went from #275 to #200 (Up by 75) #9 in PA went from #304 to #248 (Up by 56) #10 in PA went from #333 to #332 (Up by 1) Pretty clear Pennsylvania is getting a substancial bump in the depth department at the top... crazy... ==== And finally, the Sig6 from NJ for you golf... (Not going to use their names, just the rankings, because obviously its only about the rankings anyway) #1 Sig6 team went from #36 to #12 (Up by 24) #2 Sig6 team went from #41 to #31 (Up by 10) #3 Sig6 team went from #103 to #63 (Up by 40) #4 Sig6 team went from #128 to #67 (Up by 61) #5 Sig6 team went from #142 to #85 (Up by 57) #6 Sig6 team went from #299 to #174 (Up by 125) All of the Sig6 went up ... what a surprise... whats funny is Paramus Catholic went from #1 of the Sig6 to #6... PC went from #36 to #174... the rest of the teams went up themselves... So there you can see... none of these are still anywhere close to Georgias gangbang. Im starting to think Ned does this bc I talk shit about CP. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Top Cali Schools by D1 players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Top NJ schools by D1... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Ohio... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Now Georgia. Now to me the Ga list looks much more similar to CA/TX than it does NJ/OH. Now obviously # of D1s on teams doesn't mean everything, but it IS a measurable to consider when looking at the depth of talent on these teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, GloryDays said: Not that simple. You've burned through more words than 10 copies of War and Peace, and the only salient point is..... Something that hasn't truly been debated. There's not enough OOS games. Quite the find. Congrats bud, you earned it. Without OOS games, the only thing there is to scale these states to being equal is Neds starting values. Thats why OOS games are important. And there arent nearly enough. The National Rankings are stupid. Ned meant for this to be JUST a California thing at 1st and he shouldve kept it that way. Either that or keep the states individual. Because just putting all the teams from all different states together on a spreadsheet doesnt make them actual Rankings. Its the same as adding NFL teams with the Candian Football League, the European Football League and the NCAA all together... those teams dont freaking play each other so they cant scale to each other. The NFL teams will scale to other NFL teams, the Euro teams will scale to other Euro teams, NCAA teams will scale to other NCAA teams because THATS. WHO. THEY. PLAY. Would I be happier with CalPreps if the screwjob to GA wasnt so obvious? Probably. But the shit I pointed to over the years is just over the top. I mean stop dropping the teams from EoY to Preseason SO MUCH EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Give them a freaking chance for gods sake. Even if I would be happier, my point is still accurate that the states are not scaled accurately and will never be by man. Especially if that man wants to recreate the states scales every year and not let there be a little bit of continuity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 TX list... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Fl list... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 7 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Would I be happier with CalPreps if the screwjob to GA wasnt... You are an idiot. Sorry, very seldom do I post like this but it is called for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 8 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Dude you are the most obtuse fool with that Ive ever seen. If you cant SEE theres something wrong with that you CANT be helped. You realize this is what everyone thinks of your posts once they take the time? Quote Holy fuck. I cant believe some people can get up and get dressed in the morning. Its incredible. Oh, pumpkin. oh, pumpkin. You really don't get how you are seen... What a train wreck you turned out to be. Stop the bleeding little buddy, just stop the bleeding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 8 hours ago, ECHS05 said: The way the ratings work are actually very very simple. There are SMALL complex adjustments... but the basis of it is very simple. basic arithmetic is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 10 hours ago, NYHSFAN33 said: Your quote: "What's stupid is you constantly trying to convince the members of this forum that a man who has dedicated his entire adult life to a scientific gathering of numerical data for the sole purpose of eliminating bias has suddenly forsaken his life's work for no other reason than to stick it to GA high school football.I sincerely hope this helps you realize how ridiculous you have become on this subject." Well that's fair I guess.....you didn't specifically mention CP, but I have yet to see anyone (most notably Stan or Nor) refute Peanut's assertion that there is a finite amount of points available per state to go around unless there is heavy OOS interplay reference points, which if true would be an enormous hindrance to being able to judge / rate / rank teams from different parts of the country. That's not to mention the glaring, obvious flaws in using the transitive property of scores to compare teams in any given year, which is all CP relies on. You seem like an educated guy, so I assume you realize all of that is the true point, not that he thinks Ned is specifically "sticking it to Georgia football." ECH's delivery isn't the most polished, but he has a point. And until you, nor, Stan, any of the DLS fightin' Spartans, or anybody else can knock it down with numbers, the question will remain. you are gonna believe in Santa till someone pulls the beard off the fat guy at the mall in front of you, got it -------------------------------------------- To all: There is a certain segment of folks that will never accept any algorithm rating system. I won't explain why that is but if you don't value a quantitative, qualified system that's on you. peace out all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 10 hours ago, NYHSFAN33 said: To add to this, I am not a total CP hater. What Ned has created is pretty great to see being that I am a numbers guy. The theory and even execution is excellent, but the task at hand that he is trying to accomplish is simply impossible. To make it possible would require building in advanced patterns of information into a dataset, which creates a cluster (in this case football teams in predetermined "tough" districts) in a circular loop of teams with a perceived tougher SOS aka: Not enough data points to tie all the teams together. HELLO! Obviously If you understand all this, why don't you take Cal for what it is? It seems you are insisting it be the definitive determiner of future events. Why? It's nothing but a guide. It's a formula that anyone can maximize. Ga or NJ or Cal teams. Jeeez, Ned himself had told me once that it's not a final poll, it's a ratings ranking to be used as a reference to a final human poll. (don't recall his exact words) ---------------------------- But the idea that Ned targets GA is nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealCAJ Posted April 18, 2017 Report Share Posted April 18, 2017 Louisiana's #1 Landry-Walker would be #7 in CA....per calpreps preseason rankings..(sneak peak/whatever). The #1 team in CA has a calpreps preseason rating of almost 100.....(99.1) The #1 team in Louisiana has a calpreps preseason rating of 66. The computer clearly got the memo on CA #1...ONLY Computer's aren't suppose to know the names of teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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