noonereal Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said: Liberty wouldnt beat Cartersville... I dont think you understand the difference between NV publics and GA publics.... The gap in NV is ridiculous.... Liberty wouldnt beat Cartersville.... I had to like your post because it made me laugh. Figure you have a better handle on the high school scene nationally do you? lol peace out brtother Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaximumHornetSting Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 Just now, noonereal said: I had to like your post because it made me laugh. Figure you have a better handle on the high school scene nationally do you? lol peace out brtother Have you seen NV HSFB? An amateur can look and tell NV isnt as strong... have you seen the other OOS results for NV? Because I have and I can tell you scores like 61-7 and 49-0 doesnt exactly scream "our states strong" having something like that happen to 1 team ok thats understandable... But all of your teams are losing by margins and scores like that.... no thats a sign... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 Any questions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, noonereal said: I had to like your post because it made me laugh. Figure you have a better handle on the high school scene nationally do you? lol peace out brtother NOR... You said Liberty would defeat Cartersville? This isnt Chandler & Valdosta, k. Cartersville would come in a 7-10 point favorite and go home a 21-24 point winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 1 hour ago, noonereal said: It's easy to have a valid point on any subject and just be making shi% up. Trust me, business thrives on it. The most ridiculous part of all this is that he is arguing for tiny adjustment to all go GA's way. Here is what I mean. Grayson finished #6 last year at Cal. The same damned place as they did in every other poll. How does Cal get that right and the rest of GA wrong? But oh wait, there is more. Valdosta finished at 58. Just yesterday Opie called Valdosta a top 75 national team. Well, looks like Cal got that right too. You tell me how a machine computerizing scores from 16,000 teams a week can get some teams right in GA and some teams wrong? See, it's not possible. and there is more Opie almost always agrees with how many top 100 teams GA has in Cal. So his whole made up arithmetic is not relevant. It just never comes out exactly AS good as he would prefer. Guess what, Nj loses in CalPreps. Why? So few playoff games. (they hold more weight) I never bitch, it is what it is. It's not perfect but it's way better than any human poll. It's a rating and the formula is not changed during the year. and here is another thing to understand. Cal, for right or wrong, values the opponents you play. Most good GA teams play pitiful soft schedules when it come to elite programs. If being ranked a "tad" better in Cal is so important to the little guy, he should be arranging some better competition for the teams he thinks are all world. Guess what, two teams in GA stepped up their schedules last year. Cudos although long overdo. They both got slapped down as a result though. IMG beat Grayson pretty easily. IMG was ranked #4 by Cal, Grayson #6. Where is the complaint? How is GA being undervalued? See? The kid is a whining baby who made up a simple arithmetic model to fit into his desired result. (not allowed in real science) Meantime Cal is designed and run by a freakin' scientist, schooled in logic, math and computers. The kid has a better mouse trap? Anyway, I know the simplicity of his argument has seduced a few. Don't be a dolt. If it were as easy as Opie says, he would not be working the counter at McDonalds. .... Your argument is Ned is a "scientist" and Im not... so he must be right. Holy shit. Just bc he "knows math" doesnt mean this is perfect. It means its something he wanted to do and it caught on with some people. I mean technically it works, there are just bad flaws using it NATIONALLY , when OOS are a very small percentage of games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 53 minutes ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said: Are you really gonna try and Compare Liberty to Cartersville... "Liberty has better wins than Cartersville" thats a damn hefty stretch there buddy.... Westlake in Austin wasnt that good last year.... they didnt beat the Westlake that beat Katy.... they beat the Westlake that liked to self destruct in the face of Adversity... Liberty would smoke cartersville!! By 20+!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, AztecPadre said: Liberty would smoke cartersville!! By 20+!!! Even CalPreps disagrees with this. And if that shit picks a GA team to win an OOS game, its about as slam dunk as it gets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 2 hours ago, noonereal said: It's easy to have a valid point on any subject and just be making shi% up. Trust me, business thrives on it. The most ridiculous part of all this is that he is arguing for tiny adjustment to all go GA's way. Here is what I mean. Grayson finished #6 last year at Cal. The same damned place as they did in every other poll. How does Cal get that right and the rest of GA wrong? But oh wait, there is more. Valdosta finished at 58. Just yesterday Opie called Valdosta a top 75 national team. Well, looks like Cal got that right too. You tell me how a machine computerizing scores from 16,000 teams a week can get some teams right in GA and some teams wrong? See, it's not possible. and there is more Opie almost always agrees with how many top 100 teams GA has in Cal. So his whole made up arithmetic is not relevant. It just never comes out exactly AS good as he would prefer. Guess what, Nj loses in CalPreps. Why? So few playoff games. (they hold more weight) I never bitch, it is what it is. It's not perfect but it's way better than any human poll. It's a rating and the formula is not changed during the year. and here is another thing to understand. Cal, for right or wrong, values the opponents you play. Most good GA teams play pitiful soft schedules when it come to elite programs. If being ranked a "tad" better in Cal is so important to the little guy, he should be arranging some better competition for the teams he thinks are all world. Guess what, two teams in GA stepped up their schedules last year. Cudos although long overdo. They both got slapped down as a result though. IMG beat Grayson pretty easily. IMG was ranked #4 by Cal, Grayson #6. Where is the complaint? How is GA being undervalued? See? The kid is a whining baby who made up a simple arithmetic model to fit into his desired result. (not allowed in real science) Meantime Cal is designed and run by a freakin' scientist, schooled in logic, math and computers. The kid has a better mouse trap? Anyway, I know the simplicity of his argument has seduced a few. Don't be a dolt. If it were as easy as Opie says, he would not be working the counter at McDonalds. Yeah but whats the logic and math that explains the drop in rankings to start things off? He posted facts on how the different state's teams were ranked at the end of last year as compared to where they are this preseason. Statistically speaking those changes seem outside the norm, wouldn't you agree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 As far as Cartersville, I'm not a huge believer in them, I have to see it on the field, but as far as Ga as a whole I think ECH's data does support a bit his theory of Ga being a bit underrated on CP. You guys all see the big losses and don't see more of the "depth" OOS games that Ga plays every year. For example 5-5 Creekside (not 7a and ranked 80+ in state) took down Miami Norland. How many state's 80th+ ranked teams are gonna be able to do that? Maaaybe Texas and Cali, but GA as a state is much deeper than you guys let on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 1 hour ago, AztecPadre said: Liberty would smoke cartersville!! By 20+!!! Liberty should honestly still be in hiding after what BG did to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, 954gator said: Yeah but whats the logic and math that explains the drop in rankings to start things off? He posted facts on how the different state's teams were ranked at the end of last year as compared to where they are this preseason. Statistically speaking those changes seem outside the norm, wouldn't you agree? It could be as simple as Ned doesn't have a lot of information on GA at this time but he still puts out something for clicks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 Point is ECHS thinks it's some grand conspiracy which is totally ridiculous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted April 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ararar said: It could be as simple as Ned doesn't have a lot of information on GA at this time but he still puts out something for clicks. Thats stupid. Where GA is, isnt going to get better this preseason. But if you look he doesnt have much on any of the FL TX or OH teams either. Why drop GA so much from the End of Year poll to the Preseason poll EVERY SINGLE year but keep the other top states essentially the same? I will say... Florida got a huge boost I noticed starting last year... clearly someone straightened him out on them. Its like your instinct is to defend this thing like its your child... no matter how bad the facts look youll defend it... youd think your instinct would be just the opposite, to question it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 When Miami. Northwestern was ranked in the 40's behind a team from Iowa back in 2007 when they won the MNC that's all I needed. And when Curtis won it a few years ago weren't they in the 80's? I don't think for a second that Curtis was number 1 but to be outside the top 50 proved they don't rank teams, they rank schedules Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 3 hours ago, ECHS05 said: .... Your argument is Ned is a "scientist" and Im not... so he must be right. Holy shit. Just bc he "knows math" doesnt mean this is perfect. It means its something he wanted to do and it caught on with some people. I mean technically it works, there are just bad flaws using it NATIONALLY , when OOS are a very small percentage of games. finally, a valid response good job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Nolebull813 said: When Miami. Northwestern was ranked in the 40's behind a team from Iowa back in 2007 when they won the MNC that's all I needed. And when Curtis won it a few years ago weren't they in the 80's? I don't think for a second that Curtis was number 1 but to be outside the top 50 proved they don't rank teams, they rank schedules Cal does not rank schedules, it ranks accomplishments very different it is not a head count ranking Curtis was a head count team proved nothing on the field Cal ranked them correctly given the criteria they use 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 3 hours ago, ECHS05 said: NOR... You said Liberty would defeat Cartersville? This isnt Chandler & Valdosta, k. Cartersville would come in a 7-10 point favorite and go home a 21-24 point winner. of course Liberty could win. They beat Westlake. Could Cartersville do that? But that was not the point. Liberty DID MORE on the field so I would have ranked them ahead of Carterville. Cal gave the nod to Cartersville. No hate for GA in putting Carterville ahead of Liberty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 2 hours ago, 954gator said: Yeah but whats the logic and math that explains the drop in rankings to start things off? He posted facts on how the different state's teams were ranked at the end of last year as compared to where they are this preseason. Statistically speaking those changes seem outside the norm, wouldn't you agree? Cal, like EVERY sports algorithm in every sport I have ever read about, eliminates starting values and any effect on the season. Some lazy algorithms do not publish until several games are played. Cal, like many, wants to sell it's product so it gives reasonable, not perfect non performance based ratings to start. But as they are eliminated, by seasons end it has ZERO affect. When I was a kid I would do this in a simplistic way with my friends. They be shocked. It's just not hard to eliminate starting values. Echs entire argument hinges on it not being possible. Or that Ned is a liar. Why would Ned lie when it's so easy to do? Why would a scientist pull a parlor trick? If GA wants better ranking they need two things. Better schedules and positive outcome. Think if Grayson beat IMG. Think if Colquitt ran their schedule last year. Echs would not need to complain about Cal. Had Valsota taken care of it's last game..... Mill, Cartersville and Roswell have no complaints in Cal. They simply did not prove anything more the rating they received. Cal is COMPLETELY even handed in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GloryDays Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 This would probably be a better argument if you used the rating, not the ranking. Looks damning now, probably amounts to about a 5 PR swing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 1 minute ago, GloryDays said: This would probably be a better argument if you used the rating, not the ranking. Looks damning now, probably amounts to about a 5 PR swing. I just don't know how to dummy it down any more. My apologies. and, I want to be honest. not like Echo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealCAJ Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 Grown men losing their minds over a high school algorithm presented by some guy in California....again!, and people wonder why this country is in the shape it's in. Evidently, the high school football world is as divided as the nation...only 100 times sillier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 Freeman's preseason ratings are basically head counts adjusted to last year's performance... whether the starting ratings get eliminated or not is irrelevant because the schools are being scaled against each other in-state (except with the small overall % of OOS games). I'll explain with photos that I used above. Like with human pollsters, Freeman gets dizzy with D1's and returning starters just like us humans do... but still no Charmin +/- factor added or subtracted, one day. Two examples that caught my eye. CP is digging the greatest O on earth, but defense and special teams are just a tad important too. Mater Dei info below. STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSESTeam Strengths: 10 Starters Back From Prolific Offense, Have Many D1 Players With Multiple OffersTeam Weaknesses: Must Rebuild Defense, Both Kickers Need To Be ReplacedRATINGS2016 Final Power Rating: 85.62016 National Rank: #32016 State Rank: #2General Personnel (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment*: +6.5D1 Talent (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment*: +8Reg Season Schedule Strength Downward Rating Adjustment*: -12017 Starting Power Rating*: 99.1 RETURNERSReturning Offensive Starters: 10Returning Defensive Starters: 52016 JV Record: 9-1Starting Quarterback Returning: yesTop Running Back Returning: yesTop Receiver Returning: yesTop OL Returning: yesTop Defender Returning: no ------------------------------------------------------------ Armwood hasn't filled in their stats yet... but Freeman is jacking up their preseason rating based on numerous returning juniors with fbs offers. The crossed off tally is what's jacking up Armwood from a decent #250 rated team to a ridiculous #9 powerhouse due to returning FBS recruits Note: They started preseason rating #8 last year. Armwood is the #1 rated school in FL preseason (excluding IMG). Silly. Those recruits played last year, this isn't an IMG invasion. "They are what we thought they were". 2016 Final Power Rating: 52.52016 National Rank: #2472016 State Rank: #24D1 Talent (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment*: +16.3Reg Season Schedule Strength Downward Rating Adjustment*: -1Player Statistics-Based (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment*: +7.22017 Starting Power Rating*: 752017 National Rank*: #92017 State Rank*: #2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 2 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Thats stupid. Where GA is, isnt going to get better this preseason. But if you look he doesnt have much on any of the FL TX or OH teams either. Why drop GA so much from the End of Year poll to the Preseason poll EVERY SINGLE year but keep the other top states essentially the same? I will say... Florida got a huge boost I noticed starting last year... clearly someone straightened him out on them. Its like your instinct is to defend this thing like its your child... no matter how bad the facts look youll defend it... youd think your instinct would be just the opposite, to question it. What's stupid is you constantly trying to convince the members of this forum that a man who has dedicated his entire adult life to a scientific gathering of numerical data for the sole purpose of eliminating bias has suddenly forsaken his life's work for no other reason than to stick it to GA high school football.I sincerely hope this helps you realize how ridiculous you have become on this subject 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotBigdaddybloom Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 This woe is me stuff is stale. Centennial lost to the #2 & #4 NATIONALLY ranked teams by a total of 3 points. They ended up ranked 2 spots behind a GA team that lost to the same #1 team by 3 TD's. You better hope your boys handle VM on a downyear! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 5 hours ago, golfaddict1 said: Freeman has a state rating rank preseason... not all states begin with the same boundary limitations and no school in the power states is capped, while in the bottom rung states there is 0% chance that a school can finish #1. Why? Because he sets the movement criteria and refuses to have a Rhode Island state champ reaching top 100 status for example. I'd do the same thing but I would also explain it better to the readers. States calibrated ratings have limitations. If a team is rocking and kicking ass, they are moving up... and other schools in the state are adversely affected and dropping. Quote You can't change what Freeman created... not happening. Rejected... sorry #1 in Rhode Island, you are capped. Sorry #5 in West Virginia, you are not having a similar #5 national rating as the #5 team in GA Minus OOS games (tiny % in-state). What goes up, another goes down in-state. Sure you can advance/breakout... but you're going to have to maximize your state's OOS games. To break down that cap wall, you have to perform outside of that cap area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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