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Part of CalPreps bias against GA shown...


ECHS05

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So I posted some info in the Cartersville thread about Georgias rankings at CalPreps.... and golfaddict asked how the same data looked for CA, TX, FL, and OH....

Ive said CalPreps does this every year. Not only have I said it, but Ive shown it every year. Georgia rises its State Average at CP slightly every single year from where they start at the beginning of a year to where they finish... obviously via OOS games as this is the only way to add points to a states average team ratings.

Well CalPreps screws GA every year unlike any other state... I realize its just Ned trying to scale states where he THINKS they go... but if a state moves UP in its scale/state average every single year... then he should follow that trend. That is simply the state slowly scaling itself by way of OOS play. And thats the only way it can actually happen... yet Ned just incorrectly resets it every year to his own thinking. Let the states balance themselves, follow the trends ... set the scales the way the states are moving every year and eventually the stated will balance themselved out..

Well... heres that data... 

========

  1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

Echs, if you do the same analysis of CA, TX, FL and OH do you see a trend?  

 

^^ Thiz was something golfaddict asked after some date i posted... so i went and added the data for the other 4 states...

The way I just showed you 6 of Georgias Top 6 went down (way down)... and i dont mean the specific teams, I mean the rankings of the states teams..... Im going to show you the other states you just asked about... a quick Top 10 example from each state...

 

(READ THE BOLDED BELOW TO TRULY UNDERSTAND THE MEANING OF THE DATA BELOW)

When Ned sets these starting ratings, he is setting the states scale compared to the rest of the country. And it isnt going to change much because there simply jsnt enough OOS play for it to change. When 2 teams in the same state play, if Team A beats Team B by 17, Team A gets +17, and Team B gets -17... now the 2 individual teams are moving up or down but the States Average Team Rating is NOT changing. The only way for the States Average Team Rating to change is by OOS play... if Grayson GA plays Hoover AL and Grayson GA wins by 20... Grayson is getting Hoovers Rating +20 and Hoover is getting Graysons rating -20. The Georgia team is gaining, and no other Georgia team is losing so this adds to Georgias State Team Rating Average... and itd hurt Hoovers and Alabamas overall Team State Ranking (obviously changing 1 team barely changes an entire state average but it does a little)... and with more and more OOS games... theres more of an opportunity for a States Team Rating Average to change. The State can add Rating Points to its total, which means more points to spread around to more teams... which means a better opportunity for more highly rated teams at CP. But when Ned takes away all that was earned from the previous year... it messes up any advancement or balance or progress a state might make towards its true scale vs the rest of the nation, it halts progress .. check this out...

 

This is where each Top 10 ranking , went from the End of Year 2016 Nationally, to the new 2017 Preseason Ranking Nationally

Georgias #1 team went from #6 to #54 (Down 48 spots)

#2 in GA went from #46 to #60 (Down 14 spots)

#3 in GA went from #53 to #120 (Down 67 spots)

#4 in GA went from #58 to #138 (Down 80 spots)

#5 in GA went from #82 to #175 (Down 93 spots)

#6 in GA went from #129 to #254 (Down 125 spots)

#7 in GA went from #134 to #259 (Down 125 spots)

#8 in GA went from #141 to #284 (Down 143 spots)

#9 in GA went from #169 to #288 (Down 119 spots)

#10 in GA went from #177 to #320 (Down 143 spots)

Not a single 1 of them went up, in fact all of them went down dramatically. It gets much worse for GA as you go.

Look at the 4 States below... Georgia has 9 rankings go down by 48 spots or more... and 5 by 119 spots or more... out of ALL 4 of the other states combined, the MOST any of the other states rankings went down was by 28. 2-freaking-8. 9 out of Georgias 10 teams went down by more than the MOST of the other 4 states combined, which was 28. Georgias 2nd best movement was -48. 20 more than the worst of the other 4 states combined. That is just insanely unfair and ridiculous.

-----

Well if you look at CA... its the exact opposite...

#1 in CA went from #2 to #1 (Up 1)

#2 in CA went from #3 to #2 (Up 1)

#3 in CA went from #8 to #4 (Up 4)

#4 in CA went from #16 to #11 (Up 5)

#5 in CA went from #24 to #13 (Up 11)

#6 in CA went from #25 to #30 (Down 5)

#7 in CA went from #26 to #43 (Down 17)

#8 in CA went from #43 to #50 (Down 7)

#9 in CA went from #66 to #51 (Up 15)

#10 in CA went from #89 to #70 (Up 19)

All of Californias Top 5 went up... where as they were already tremendously ridiculously overranked. 6-8 goes down a little... but then 9 and 10 make up for it by going up 15 and 19... giving Cali 9 in the Top 51 teams... just stupid as shit. Cali again gets better... even though it was already stupid overrated to begin with.

Clearly the concensus on CA is that they always massively climb.

====

Lets look at Ohio....

#1 in OH went from #15 to #23 (Down 8)

#2 in OH went from #17 to #27 (Down 10)

#3 in OH went from #19 to #28 (Down 9)

#4 in OH went from #32 to #32 (Even)

#5 in OH went from #33 to #39 (Down 6)

#6 in OH went from #38 to #42 (Down 4)

#7 in OH went from #50 to #46 (Up 4)

#8 in OH went from #81 to #61 (Up 20)

#9 in OH went from #96 to #64 (Up 32)

#10 in OH went from #115 to #113 (Up 2)

OH is up and down... it kind of balances it.... while the highest ranked team in OH is higher at EOY 2016 , OHs 2017 Preseason rankings make them even deeper before it reaches #50... 9 freaking Ohio teams in the top 64.... that is THE most absurb thing Ive ever seen.

Ohio had 4 Up, 5 Down & 1 Even.

The concensus here is that Ohio benefits overall, just down a smidge at the VERY top

====

TX

#1 in TX went from #5 to #16 (Down 11)

#2 in TX went from #11 to #29 (Down 18)

#3 in TX went from #35 to #35 (Even)

#4 in TX went from #39 to #49 (Down 10)

#5 in TX went from #44 to #59 (Down 15)

#6 in TX went from #57 to #76 (Down 19)

#7 in TX went from #67 to #95 (Down 28)

#8 in TX went from #74 to #100 (Down 26)

#9 in TX went from #91 to #101 (Down 10)

#10 in TX went from #111 to #109 (Up 2)

While Texas had 8 go down, 1 even, and 1 up... by the #10 spot, 2017 had caught up with 2016... so while the #1-#9 spots arent quite as high, it really isnt enough to make a big difference since it catches up at #10...

Texas has 1 Up, 8 Down, and 1 Even.

I dont believe Texas benefitted in the Top 10 much at all. But at #10 and after the depth gets better... 

 

===

Florida...

#1 in FL went from #4 to #3   (Up by 1)

#2 in FL went from #7 to #9 (Down by 2)

#3 in FL went from #10 to #17 (Down to 7)

#4 in FL went from #27 to #26 (Up by 1)

#5 in FL went from #55 to #36 (Up by 19)

#6 in FL went from #59 to #40 (Up by 19)

#7 in FL went from #63 to #52 (Up by 11)

#8 in FL went from #73 to #53 (Up by 20)

#9 in FL went from #77 to #65 (Up by 12)

#10 in FL went from #78 to #82 (Down by 4)

7 of the Rankings went Up, 3 of them went Down... Florida Benefited the most of any state.

 

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I'm sure I'll be the only one that actually read it but here's my question

if states are so limited because all the points stay within a state (your assertion), how did those GA teams become so highly ranked last year vs where they started this year?

a simple yes or no will suffice

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1 hour ago, 954gator said:

Fl used to have shitty Calpreps ratings back in the day as well.     

Ned doesnt have East Coast Resources... if he had a East Coast Branch he would undoubtedly be more accurate... 

But then you run into the issue of East vs West.... unless you have head to head results of lets say Grayson vs MD how do you know which one deserves the higher rank? Its easy to say a team will beat another team all day when theyre over 1500 miles apart and dont have to play.... 

You never know what results will be displayed on the field... 

 

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3 hours ago, Pops said:

I'm sure I'll be the only one that actually read it but here's my question

if states are so limited because all the points stay within a state (your assertion), how did those GA teams become so highly ranked last year vs where they started this year?

a simple yes or no will suffice

Grayson was helped a bit OOS. IMG, Hoover, Ramsay, etc... made it much easier. 

The rest have the "feed" off the rest of Georgia. But for those teams like Valdosta, Mill Creek, Roswell, etc... to get that high, it made some of the others suffer because those teams basically stole/borrowed points from them. There will be a limit on what GA teams can do because theres only so many points to go around.

Look at New Hampshire or a state like that... those states will NEVER have many highly rated teams... theres not enough highly ranked teams to start with to support it. All those teams dont magically grow... the points come from somewhere... like Ned said, the national average is 0... so theres as many - points as +. Teams can only go so high.

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9 hours ago, ECHS05 said:

So I posted some info in the Cartersville thread about Georgias rankings at CalPreps.... and golfaddict asked how the same data looked for CA, TX, FL, and OH....

Ive said CalPreps does this every year. Not only have I said it, but Ive shown it every year. Georgia rises its State Average at CP slightly every single year from where they start at the beginning of a year to where they finish... obviously via OOS games as this is the only way to add points to a states average team ratings.

Well CalPreps screws GA every year unlike any other state... I realize its just Ned trying to scale states where he THINKS they go... but if a state moves UP in its scale/state average every single year... then he should follow that trend. That is simply the state slowly scaling itself by way of OOS play. And thats the only way it can actually happen... yet Ned just incorrectly resets it every year to his own thinking. Let the states balance themselves, follow the trends ... set the scales the way the states are moving every year and eventually the stated will balance themselved out..

Well... heres that data... 

========

  1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

Echs, if you do the same analysis of CA, TX, FL and OH do you see a trend?  

 

^^ Thiz was something golfaddict asked after some date i posted... so i went and added the data for the other 4 states...

The way I just showed you 6 of Georgias Top 6 went down (way down)... and i dont mean the specific teams, I mean the rankings of the states teams..... Im going to show you the other states you just asked about... a quick Top 10 example from each state...

 

(READ THE BOLDED BELOW TO TRULY UNDERSTAND THE MEANING OF THE DATA BELOW)

When Ned sets these starting ratings, he is setting the states scale compared to the rest of the country. And it isnt going to change much because there simply jsnt enough OOS play for it to change. When 2 teams in the same state play, if Team A beats Team B by 17, Team A gets +17, and Team B gets -17... now the 2 individual teams are moving up or down but the States Average Team Rating is NOT changing. The only way for the States Average Team Rating to change is by OOS play... if Grayson GA plays Hoover AL and Grayson GA wins by 20... Grayson is getting Hoovers Rating +20 and Hoover is getting Graysons rating -20. The Georgia team is gaining, and no other Georgia team is losing so this adds to Georgias State Team Rating Average... and itd hurt Hoovers and Alabamas overall Team State Ranking (obviously changing 1 team barely changes an entire state average but it does a little)... and with more and more OOS games... theres more of an opportunity for a States Team Rating Average to change. The State can add Rating Points to its total, which means more points to spread around to more teams... which means a better opportunity for more highly rated teams at CP. But when Ned takes away all that was earned from the previous year... it messes up any advancement or balance or progress a state might make towards its true scale vs the rest of the nation, it halts progress .. check this out...

 

This is where each Top 10 ranking , went from the End of Year 2016 Nationally, to the new 2017 Preseason Ranking Nationally

Georgias #1 team went from #6 to #54 (Down 48 spots)

#2 in GA went from #46 to #60 (Down 14 spots)

#3 in GA went from #53 to #120 (Down 67 spots)

#4 in GA went from #58 to #138 (Down 80 spots)

#5 in GA went from #82 to #175 (Down 93 spots)

#6 in GA went from #129 to #254 (Down 125 spots)

#7 in GA went from #134 to #259 (Down 125 spots)

#8 in GA went from #141 to #284 (Down 143 spots)

#9 in GA went from #169 to #288 (Down 119 spots)

#10 in GA went from #177 to #320 (Down 143 spots)

Not a single 1 of them went up, in fact all of them went down dramatically. It gets much worse for GA as you go.

Look at the 4 States below... Georgia has 9 rankings go down by 48 spots or more... and 5 by 119 spots or more... out of ALL 4 of the other states combined, the MOST any of the other states rankings went down was by 28. 2-freaking-8. 9 out of Georgias 10 teams went down by more than the MOST of the other 4 states combined, which was 28. Georgias 2nd best movement was -48. 20 more than the worst of the other 4 states combined. That is just insanely unfair and ridiculous.

-----

Well if you look at CA... its the exact opposite...

#1 in CA went from #2 to #1 (Up 1)

#2 in CA went from #3 to #2 (Up 1)

#3 in CA went from #8 to #4 (Up 4)

#4 in CA went from #16 to #11 (Up 5)

#5 in CA went from #24 to #13 (Up 11)

#6 in CA went from #25 to #30 (Down 5)

#7 in CA went from #26 to #43 (Down 17)

#8 in CA went from #43 to #50 (Down 7)

#9 in CA went from #66 to #51 (Up 15)

#10 in CA went from #89 to #70 (Up 19)

All of Californias Top 5 went up... where as they were already tremendously ridiculously overranked. 6-8 goes down a little... but then 9 and 10 make up for it by going up 15 and 19... giving Cali 9 in the Top 51 teams... just stupid as shit. Cali again gets better... even though it was already stupid overrated to begin with.

Clearly the concensus on CA is that they always massively climb.

====

Lets look at Ohio....

#1 in OH went from #15 to #23 (Down 8)

#2 in OH went from #17 to #27 (Down 10)

#3 in OH went from #19 to #28 (Down 9)

#4 in OH went from #32 to #32 (Even)

#5 in OH went from #33 to #39 (Down 6)

#6 in OH went from #38 to #42 (Down 4)

#7 in OH went from #50 to #46 (Up 4)

#8 in OH went from #81 to #61 (Up 20)

#9 in OH went from #96 to #64 (Up 32)

#10 in OH went from #115 to #113 (Up 2)

OH is up and down... it kind of balances it.... while the highest ranked team in OH is higher at EOY 2016 , OHs 2017 Preseason rankings make them even deeper before it reaches #50... 9 freaking Ohio teams in the top 64.... that is THE most absurb thing Ive ever seen.

Ohio had 4 Up, 5 Down & 1 Even.

The concensus here is that Ohio benefits overall, just down a smidge at the VERY top

====

TX

#1 in TX went from #5 to #16 (Down 11)

#2 in TX went from #11 to #29 (Down 18)

#3 in TX went from #35 to #35 (Even)

#4 in TX went from #39 to #49 (Down 10)

#5 in TX went from #44 to #59 (Down 15)

#6 in TX went from #57 to #76 (Down 19)

#7 in TX went from #67 to #95 (Down 28)

#8 in TX went from #74 to #100 (Down 26)

#9 in TX went from #91 to #101 (Down 10)

#10 in TX went from #111 to #109 (Up 2)

While Texas had 8 go down, 1 even, and 1 up... by the #10 spot, 2017 had caught up with 2016... so while the #1-#9 spots arent quite as high, it really isnt enough to make a big difference since it catches up at #10...

Texas has 1 Up, 8 Down, and 1 Even.

I dont believe Texas benefitted in the Top 10 much at all. But at #10 and after the depth gets better... 

 

===

Florida...

#1 in FL went from #4 to #3   (Up by 1)

#2 in FL went from #7 to #9 (Down by 2)

#3 in FL went from #10 to #17 (Down to 7)

#4 in FL went from #27 to #26 (Up by 1)

#5 in FL went from #55 to #36 (Up by 19)

#6 in FL went from #59 to #40 (Up by 19)

#7 in FL went from #63 to #52 (Up by 11)

#8 in FL went from #73 to #53 (Up by 20)

#9 in FL went from #77 to #65 (Up by 12)

#10 in FL went from #78 to #82 (Down by 4)

7 of the Rankings went Up, 3 of them went Down... Florida Benefited the most of any state.

 

You obviously have WAAAAAAAAAAY too much time on your hands.

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9 hours ago, Bestcoast said:

Your a funny guy. You spend so much time trying to convince folks that Georgia is relevant. It's not going to happen, but it sure is  entertaining to Watch. Thanks for the humor echs!

Lemme spell it out for you clowns SLOOOOOOOWLY, so......you.......can.....un.....der....stand.......me! Colquitt beat Florida 8A #8, 42-8 in 2015! In 2016, 8-5 Colquitt blew a chance at beating TOP FIFTEEN American Heritage Plantation, losing 17-14 of three short missed FG's! In 2014 and 2015, Colquitt finished in the TOP NATIONAL TWO TWICE, in EVERY poll except the Dallas Jackass Comic Book Poll! In eleven previous seasons, the National Champion has come from GEORGIA, with another two dozen finishing in the top three! Then, there is Cali, Florida, and Tejas, who RARELY have more than a half dozen teams in their states of 300,000,000 population, who are worth SHIT!

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10 hours ago, Bestcoast said:

Your a funny guy. You spend so much time trying to convince folks that Georgia is relevant. It's not going to happen, but it sure is  entertaining to Watch. Thanks for the humor echs!

Jist fer shits and giggles! Could you tell me who had more players in the NFL(Cali or Georgia) in a recent survey? Cali 38,000,000 versus Georgia's 10,000,000

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2 hours ago, 954gator said:

He has a valid point though.  

It's easy to have a valid point on any subject and just be making shi% up. 

Trust me, business thrives on it. 

The most ridiculous part of all this is that he is arguing for tiny adjustment to all go GA's way. 

Here is what I mean. 

Grayson finished #6 last year at Cal. The same damned place as they did in every other poll. 

How does Cal get that right and the rest of GA wrong? 

But oh wait, there is more. Valdosta finished at 58. Just yesterday Opie called Valdosta a top 75 national team. 

Well, looks like Cal got that right too. 

You tell me how a machine computerizing scores from 16,000 teams a week can get some teams right in GA and some teams wrong? See, it's not possible.

and there is more

Opie almost always agrees with how many top 100 teams GA has in Cal. 

So his whole made up arithmetic is not relevant. It just never comes out exactly AS good as he would prefer.

Guess what, Nj loses in CalPreps. Why? So few playoff games. (they hold more weight) I never bitch, it is what it is. It's not perfect but it's way better than any human poll. 

It's a rating and the formula is not changed during the year. 

and here is another thing to understand. Cal, for right or wrong, values the opponents you play. Most good GA teams play pitiful soft schedules when it come to elite programs. If being ranked a "tad" better in Cal is so important to the little guy, he should be arranging some better competition for the teams he thinks are all world.

Guess what, two teams in GA stepped up their schedules last year. Cudos although long overdo. They both got slapped down as a result though. 

IMG beat Grayson pretty easily.

IMG was ranked #4 by Cal, Grayson #6. Where is the complaint? How is GA being undervalued?

See? 

The kid is a whining baby who made up a simple arithmetic model to fit into his desired result. (not allowed in real science) 

Meantime Cal is designed and run by a freakin' scientist, schooled in logic, math and computers. 

The kid has a better mouse trap? 

Anyway, I know the simplicity of his argument has seduced a few. Don't be a dolt. 

If it were as easy as Opie says, he would not be working the counter at McDonalds. 

 

 

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and another one, Cartersville....Cal has them at 82. 

Is anyone gonna say this is not a fair ranking? 

Liberty NV is ranked 83! Liberty, who  beat Westlake TX!!!! Liberty, who only lost to national top 10 teams!!!!!!!

Does Cal also discriminate against NV? Seems that's a hard case to make since Cal gave #1 in the USA to A NV school. 

So if Cal is not discriminating against NV, how can a case be made that it is discriminating against GA when it gave Cartersville the nod over Liberty? 

Carterville has no win as good as Liberty and not a sole here would beat that Carterville would beat the teams Liberty fell to, CC and Gorman. 

As a human, I gotta give the nod to Liberty over Cartersville in rankings... well unless I favor beating stiffs over valued competition. 

So, how was Carterville, Grayson and Valdosta not treated farly by Cal? 

and if they were treated fairly, Opie's entire juvenile hypothesis is proved bogus. 

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2 minutes ago, noonereal said:

and another one, Cartersville....Cal has them at 82. 

Is anyone gonna say this is not a fair ranking? 

Liberty NV is ranked 83! Liberty, who  beat Westlake TX!!!! Liberty, who only lost to national top 10 teams!!!!!!!

Does Cal also discriminate against NV? Seems that's a hard case to make since Cal gave #1 in the USA to A NV school. 

So if Cal is not discriminating against NV, how can a case be made that it is discriminating against GA when it gave Cartersville the nod over Liberty? 

Carterville has no win as good as Liberty and not a sole here would beat that Carterville would beat the teams Liberty fell to, CC and Gorman. 

As a human, I gotta give the nod to Liberty over Cartersville in rankings... well unless I favor beating stiffs over valued competition. 

So, how was Carterville, Grayson and Valdosta not treated farly by Cal? 

and if they were treated fairly, Opie's entire juvenile hypothesis is proved bogus. 

Liberty beat a bad westlake and got blown out by 80+ points by BG.... 

Liberty is not a top 100 team.... NV only has 1 top 100 team... and Liberty may be a top 300 and even thats a stretch.... 

Also just because Ned is skilled in this stuff doesnt mean he's flawless.... 

I'll say it again... 

He needs a East Coast Resource Branch that would help significantly....

 

So long as hes only able to analyze West coast.... itll continue to be bad... 

 

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2 minutes ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

Liberty beat a bad westlake and got blown out by 80+ points by BG.... 

Liberty is not a top 100 team.... NV only has 1 top 100 team... and Liberty may be a top 300 and even thats a stretch.... 

Also just because Ned is skilled in this stuff doesnt mean he's flawless.... 

I'll say it again... 

He needs a East Coast Resource Branch that would help significantly....

 

So long as hes only able to analyze West coast.... itll continue to be bad... 

 

a bad Westlake team? They beat KT and only lost to NATIONAL #5 Lake Travis beside Liberty

Again, better wins than Cartersville had yet Cartersville is ranked ahead of them too! 

How is that anti GA? That is the question. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, noonereal said:

and another one, Cartersville....Cal has them at 82. 

Is anyone gonna say this is not a fair ranking? 

Liberty NV is ranked 83! Liberty, who  beat Westlake TX!!!! Liberty, who only lost to national top 10 teams!!!!!!!

Does Cal also discriminate against NV? Seems that's a hard case to make since Cal gave #1 in the USA to A NV school. 

So if Cal is not discriminating against NV, how can a case be made that it is discriminating against GA when it gave Cartersville the nod over Liberty? 

Carterville has no win as good as Liberty and not a sole here would beat that Carterville would beat the teams Liberty fell to, CC and Gorman. 

As a human, I gotta give the nod to Liberty over Cartersville in rankings... well unless I favor beating stiffs over valued competition. 

So, how was Carterville, Grayson and Valdosta not treated farly by Cal? 

and if they were treated fairly, Opie's entire juvenile hypothesis is proved bogus. 

Are you really gonna try and Compare Liberty to Cartersville...

"Liberty has better wins than Cartersville" thats a damn hefty stretch there buddy.... 

Westlake in Austin wasnt that good last year.... they didnt beat the Westlake that beat Katy.... they beat the Westlake that liked to self destruct in the face of Adversity... 

 

 

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1 minute ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

Are you really gonna try and Compare Liberty to Cartersville...

"Liberty has better wins than Cartersville" thats a damn hefty stretch there buddy.... 

Westlake in Austin wasnt that good last year.... they didnt beat the Westlake that beat Katy.... they beat the Westlake that liked to self destruct in the face of Adversity... 

 

 

I would not no.

I do not think Carterville deserves the consideration.  

That said, it would clearly be a toss up game, advantage Liberty, given the experience they got playing some good schools. 

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7 minutes ago, noonereal said:

I would not no.

I do not think Carterville deserves the consideration.  

That said, it would clearly be a toss up game, advantage Liberty, given the experience they got playing some good schools. 

Liberty wouldnt beat Cartersville... 

I dont think you understand the difference between NV publics and GA publics.... 

The gap in NV is ridiculous.... 

Liberty wouldnt beat Cartersville.... 

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