State of the Stock Market

[ohio]

21 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

But it doesnt. The trend has been hit 24 and pull back. 

Well, for DarterBlue's sake, let's hope that it breaks out of that range.

[HSFBfan]

2 minutes ago, ohio said:

Well, for DarterBlue's sake, let's hope that it breaks out of that range.

Yep I hoped as well. 

[DarterBlue]

4 hours ago, ohio said:

Mixed blessing for you today.  MPX is up (hopefully it continues in this direction, but FND is down.

Don't know why FND fell today.  Its RSI is 33.27 (If it falls below 30, I might buy into it), has mostly buy or outperform analysts ratings, good liquidity, short interest under 7 percent, good earnings, price tgt of 48, and is in oversold territory.  The only reason, I can see it falling is because it fell below last Octobers low of 37 threshold, and short term investors love to short when they see this on a graph.

 

 

It should find support. However, the price and volume action on FND says it has more downside to go. That it sold off on no news that I could find does not bode well over the near term. Sure it may bounce. But the trend is clearly down.

Regarding MPX, it is the exact opposite. It is a hard stock to hold because of its volatility and relatively low volume. However, it looks perfect. It actually pulled back yesterday to just a penny below where I had placed my buy stop (I bought most of my shares a  percent or more higher due to its thin nature) and has taken off like a rocket again. Years of trading tell me that the odds it makes new highs over the next month are at least 75%, but probably higher. 

[ohio]

On 9/25/2018 at 9:19 PM, DarterBlue said:

It should find support. However, the price and volume action on FND says it has more downside to go. That it sold off on no news that I could find does not bode well over the near term. Sure it may bounce. But the trend is clearly down.

Regarding MPX, it is the exact opposite. It is a hard stock to hold because of its volatility and relatively low volume. However, it looks perfect. It actually pulled back yesterday to just a penny below where I had placed my buy stop (I bought most of my shares a  percent or more higher due to its thin nature) and has taken off like a rocket again. Years of trading tell me that the odds it makes new highs over the next month are at least 75%, but probably higher. 

Looks like the options traders may be manipulating FND

 https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/321951/implied-volatility-surging-for-floor-amp-decor-holdings-fnd-stock-options

Here's the current options play   https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FND/options/

As for me, I didn't make any trades this week (Chickened out on buying TLRY when it fell to under 100.  Don't know what I was thinking, considering it fell from 300 to 99.  I let my emotions get the best of me, instead of using common sense).  Have to remember to jump at an opportunity when given a chance.

[DarterBlue]

5 hours ago, ohio said:

Looks like the options traders may be manipulating FND

 https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/321951/implied-volatility-surging-for-floor-amp-decor-holdings-fnd-stock-options

Here's the current options play   https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FND/options/

As for me, I didn't make any trades this week (Chickened out on buying TLRY when it fell to under 100.  Don't know what I was thinking, considering it fell from 300 to 99.  I let my emotions get the best of me, instead of using common sense).  Have to remember to jump at an opportunity when given a chance.

Regarding FND, actually, it looks like some options traders traded on inside information relating to the secondary that was going to be priced at 37 shortly after that article came out. If the SEC was staffed as well as it used to be, there would be an investigation into those trades (particularly with respect to the volume creating the very high implied volatility). IT could also mean that there is more bad news to come that has not yet been disclosed. The stock is certainly trading that way. 

Regarding TLRY, I can certainly understand why you did not make the trade, as the stock went parabolic up and then fell like a knife from the heavens. This chief issue is that it does not yet have enough trading history to define clear support and resistance on its chart.

An interesting potential long for the intrepid is GBTC (a bit coin play), which, unless the crypto's are going the way of the dinosaurs (which is possible), is at good support and flying under the radar as some of the luster has vanished from that space. 

[ohio]

15 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Regarding FND, actually, it looks like some options traders traded on inside information relating to the secondary that was going to be priced at 37 shortly after that article came out. If the SEC was staffed as well as it used to be, there would be an investigation into those trades (particularly with respect to the volume creating the very high implied volatility). IT could also mean that there is more bad news to come that has not yet been disclosed. The stock is certainly trading that way. 

Regarding TLRY, I can certainly understand why you did not make the trade, as the stock went parabolic up and then fell like a knife from the heavens. This chief issue is that it does not yet have enough trading history to define clear support and resistance on its chart.

An interesting potential long for the intrepid is GBTC (a bit coin play), which, unless the crypto's are going the way of the dinosaurs (which is possible), is at good support and flying under the radar as some of the luster has vanished from that space. 

It sucks that FND is getting manipulated like that.  Hopefully, it is not some unforeseen bad news and it starts heading up again.

Thanks for the heads up on GBTC.  May buy it in the near future when I see it's chart flatten.  Only thing that I don't understand is why it's still going down this month while bit coin went up against the dollar.

This week I may buy into AMRN,  IGC, or TLRY if I see a pullback in either.  Also will look for the biggest gainers and possible ETF shorts if the market starts heading south.

 

[paladin4ever]

US and Canada reach a deal to replace NAFTA. Market up big today.

#morewinning

[HSFBfan]

50 minutes ago, paladin4ever said:

US and Canada reach a deal to replace NAFTA. Market up big today.

#morewinning

Up about 220 points today. 

[HSFBfan]

30k on the dow is within sight as the dow hit 26800 today. I would guess by middle of 2019 if not sooner well be at 30k

[DarterBlue]

On 9/30/2018 at 7:46 PM, ohio said:

It sucks that FND is getting manipulated like that.  Hopefully, it is not some unforeseen bad news and it starts heading up again.

Thanks for the heads up on GBTC.  May buy it in the near future when I see it's chart flatten.  Only thing that I don't understand is why it's still going down this month while bit coin went up against the dollar.

This week I may buy into AMRN,  IGC, or TLRY if I see a pullback in either.  Also will look for the biggest gainers and possible ETF shorts if the market starts heading south.

 

I don't think it is being manipulated. Some large stakeholders seem to just want to sell it. So it probably is, unreported bad news. For the stock to satisfy me that it is going to head up, it will have to exhaust the selling. It is clearly not there yet despite today's bounce.

It is interesting that HSFBfan is not posting today that the DOW has made another new high. The irony is that today's action was far better than the first two days of this week. But being a neophyte, he does not realize this. 

Of the three you list above, I would be inclined to stay clear of IGC. I don't like when formerly penny stocks that had no volume suddenly "get discovered." This usually happens near the end of their run. 

[ohio]

28 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I don't think it is being manipulated. Some large stakeholders seem to just want to sell it. So it probably is, unreported bad news. For the stock to satisfy me that it is going to head up, it will have to exhaust the selling. It is clearly not there yet despite today's bounce.

It is interesting that HSFBfan is not posting today that the DOW has made another new high. The irony is that today's action was far better than the first two days of this week. But being a neophyte, he does not realize this. 

Of the three you list above, I would be inclined to stay clear of IGC. I don't like when formerly penny stocks that had no volume suddenly "get discovered." This usually happens near the end of their run. 

As far as FND goes, you may be right. Unfortunately,  Somebody might have info that you and other investors don't know about.

.HSFBfan and GSB will post about the new highs.  Just give it a few minutes.

Bought 1200 shares of AMRN today at an average cost 17.24 and sold all shares for 18.47 today.   Decided not to keep it overnight.  Just don't trust it.

IGC took a big hit today, and has more room to fall.  If it falls a lot more and the volume stays strong, I may consider jumping in, but if the volume drys up then I won't touch it.

Saw TLRY at about 131 in yesterdays after hours trading.  Was hoping it would have fallen lower at this mornings opening, but it opened higher so I left it alone.

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, ohio said:

As far as FND goes, you may be right. Unfortunately,  Somebody might have info that you and other investors don't know about.

.HSFBfan and GSB will post about the new highs.  Just give it a few minutes.

Bought 1200 shares of AMRN today at an average cost 17.24 and sold all shares for 18.47 today.   Decided not to keep it overnight.  Just don't trust it.

IGC took a big hit today, and has more room to fall.  If it falls a lot more and the volume stays strong, I may consider jumping in, but if the volume drys up then I won't touch it.

Saw TLRY at about 131 in yesterdays after hours trading.  Was hoping it would have fallen lower at this mornings opening, but it opened higher so I left it alone.

1. You probably did the right thing. A quick, 7%+ profit in a few hours is never a bad thing.

2. TLRY is one of the best of the marijuana stocks. It has price and volume and is a great trading vehicle given its volume.

3. Another of the stocks you have traded in recent months, seems to be consolidating near its highs. I am talking about PLAY, which if it can show me it wants to go higher may entice me into taking a position. 

4. Regarding GSB and HSFBfan, probably not. They need more action to get their adrenaline pumping. A couple ticks ain't gonna do it for them.  

[ohio]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

1. You probably did the right thing. A quick, 7%+ profit in a few hours is never a bad thing.  Thanks.

2. TLRY is one of the best of the marijuana stocks. It has price and volume and is a great trading vehicle given its volume. Yes. But right now I don't know which way it will go in the short term, but if I see a sharp drop...

3. Another of the stocks you have traded in recent months, seems to be consolidating near its highs. I am talking about PLAY, which if it can show me it wants to go higher may entice me into taking a position.  Still own PLAY,  and the consolidation is a little troublesome.  Not sure how long I'll hold on to it.  If it breaks 68 or 69 it could pop up quite a bit, but it could also trend down.

4. Regarding GSB and HSFBfan, probably not. They need more action to get their adrenaline pumping. A couple ticks ain't gonna do it for them.  Ha ha.  They're bored with all the winning.  Ha ha.  Guess the DOW has to go up a least 200 points now for them to chime in. 

Won't do anything tomorrow.  Got to cover someone's morning shift plus a second shift.  So it'll be a 16 hour day for me.

[BigDrop]

Were any of you in the market in 2008 when it lost 35%?  30 year mortgages are now 5%, the 10 year just traded at 3.23, tariffs are frightening and you are buying stock.

Incredible.

2 year CD’s are 2.95% (3.03% with div reinvestment through Schwab)  I have a 5 year ladder of CD’s and Corp bonds that pay an average of 3.5% and guarantees 100% return.  The CD’s are federally insured by the FDIC.  

[DarterBlue]

7 hours ago, BigDrop said:

Were any of you in the market in 2008 when it lost 35%?  30 year mortgages are now 5%, the 10 year just traded at 3.23, tariffs are frightening and you are buying stock.

Incredible.

2 year CD’s are 2.95% (3.03% with div reinvestment through Schwab)  I have a 5 year ladder of CD’s and Corp bonds that pay an average of 3.5% and guarantees 100% return.  The CD’s are federally insured by the FDIC.  

The market lost more than 35% in the 2008 bear market. It was more like 50%. However, the bear lasted from the final top in October 2007 through March 2009, so the actual losses in 2008 may have been 35% depending on the averages you are referencing. Ohio certainly would not have been in the market through the duration of this bear as he is a short term trader. 

As for me, I was on the sidelines from the end of the first week in January 2008 through mid-April 2009, only making brief forays in to buy some oversold dips, and short a few select indexes. So, no, I was not in the market during that time. 

If you are suggesting that the market should be very fragile and is probably very near going into the next bear market, I actually agree with you. For all I know, it may already have begun, as the market leading NASDAQ and Russell recorded their last highs in toward the end of August. 

However, with that said, we don't have enough evidence yet to say conclusively that a new bear market has begun, ... yet. 

When we do have one, though, it will probably be as bad as the last two and many individuals will get caught with their pants down. 

[BigDrop]

I am suggesting getting out and sitting on the sidelines for a year or two with 3% CD’s while the market plays out.  

If bonds continue to have their yields appreciate there is no way the stock market appreciates.  Depending on the speed of the rate rise will heavily influence how fast the market falls.  

This is a time to hold on to the capital we have and be satisfied with a 3.0-3.5% return.  

Not to gamble.

[DarterBlue]

28 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

I am suggesting getting out and sitting on the sidelines for a year or two with 3% CD’s while the market plays out.  

If bonds continue to have their yields appreciate there is no way the stock market appreciates.  Depending on the speed of the rate rise will heavily influence how fast the market falls.  

This is a time to hold on to the capital we have and be satisfied with a 3.0-3.5% return.  

Not to gamble.

I reserve my gambling for Vegas or for a backyard game of poker. With the market it's strictly business. The bull is old and acting tired. But till I get one of two or three reliable "signals" I use, I will not go to the sidelines. I am not in the business of forecasting the market ahead of what it's trying to say.

I am for respecting the market when it does say whither it goes.

I do believe you will be better off than many for staying in interest bearing instruments. For at least your principal won't get destroyed. I respect that. As for me, I will bide my time and when, not if, the market says I need to exit I will. I have done this for 28 years and as long as I am of sound mind, I won't let the market wipe me out. That is for the lazy or the uneducated. I am neither. 

[noonereal]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I reserve my gambling for Vegas or for a backyard game of poker. 

Are you sure? 

[ohio]

13 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

The market lost more than 35% in the 2008 bear market. It was more like 50%. However, the bear lasted from the final top in October 2007 through March 2009, so the actual losses in 2008 may have been 35% depending on the averages you are referencing. Ohio certainly would not have been in the market through the duration of this bear as he is a short term trader. 

As for me, I was on the sidelines from the end of the first week in January 2008 through mid-April 2009, only making brief forays in to buy some oversold dips, and short a few select indexes. So, no, I was not in the market during that time. 

If you are suggesting that the market should be very fragile and is probably very near going into the next bear market, I actually agree with you. For all I know, it may already have begun, as the market leading NASDAQ and Russell recorded their last highs in toward the end of August. 

However, with that said, we don't have enough evidence yet to say conclusively that a new bear market has begun, ... yet. 

When we do have one, though, it will probably be as bad as the last two and many individuals will get caught with their pants down. 

I'm heeere.

I wasn't in the market in 2007 or 2008.  But I did buy BAC stock in early 2009 and sold it around Christmas of the same year.  Got me over a 400%  plus return.  Figured the banks were too big to fail, and BAC fell much more than others like WFC or USB.

Agree with you that the markets might be close to a bear market.  NASDAQ and Russell might be topping out.  But you never know.

Didn't trade today, but did buy a few Mega Millions lottery tickets.  Would love to win the Mega Millions jackpot tonight.  Then I could put almost all of my money in CDs and Bonds, like Big Drop has.

 

 

 

 

[ohio]

20 hours ago, BigDrop said:

Were any of you in the market in 2008 when it lost 35%?  30 year mortgages are now 5%, the 10 year just traded at 3.23, tariffs are frightening and you are buying stock.

Incredible.

2 year CD’s are 2.95% (3.03% with div reinvestment through Schwab)  I have a 5 year ladder of CD’s and Corp bonds that pay an average of 3.5% and guarantees 100% return.  The CD’s are federally insured by the FDIC.  

As far as a market crash like 2007-2008 goes, I'm looking forward to it.  Been waiting for such a steep drop for over ten years.  Something will trigger it.  Maybe more interest rate hikes, foreign concerns, tariff trade wars, the Democrats taking control of House and Senate.....

Once I see the VIX starting to go nuts, I plan on shorting the hell out of it through ETF bears like UVXY.

Still have long positions in AAPL, ETSY, PLAY, BRKb and ADSK.  Sold LULU last week.  I can sell my positions in a matter of minutes if I need to and go short.

Thanks for  the info and heads up on CDs and Bonds (Government and Corporate).   As I get older I may start going into both of these  instruments, especially if they go up to around 5 percent.

 

[ohio]

5 hours ago, noonereal said:

Are you sure? 

A lot of times just posting on this site is a big gamble.  Don't believe me, just ask Concha.

[ohio]

9 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I reserve my gambling for Vegas or for a backyard game of poker. With the market it's strictly business. The bull is old and acting tired. But till I get one of two or three reliable "signals" I use, I will not go to the sidelines. I am not in the business of forecasting the market ahead of what it's trying to say.

I am for respecting the market when it does say whither it goes.

I do believe you will be better off than many for staying in interest bearing instruments. For at least your principal won't get destroyed. I respect that. As for me, I will bide my time and when, not if, the market says I need to exit I will. I have done this for 28 years and as long as I am of sound mind, I won't let the market wipe me out. That is for the lazy or the uneducated. I am neither. 

I don't even do that.  Last time that I gambled in a Casino was in 2005 or 2006. The only gambling I do is buying a few Mega Millions or Power Ball tickets if the jackpot goes over 400 million.

Oh, and if I decide to marry my girlfriend; that could be a gamble as well.

[DarterBlue]

8 hours ago, noonereal said:

Are you sure? 

Yes. 

[DarterBlue]

2 hours ago, ohio said:

I don't even do that.  Last time that I gambled in a Casino was in 2005 or 2006. The only gambling I do is buying a few Mega Millions or Power Ball tickets if the jackpot goes over 400 million.

Oh, and if I decide to marry my girlfriend; that could be a gamble as well.

If you have done your homework and you marry her for the right reasons, it's not that big a gamble. I have been married to the same woman for 37 years. My mom was married thrice. My one marriage has outlasted her three combined. Thing is, if it had not worked, I probably would not have done it a second time. I would have concluded it was not in the genes :). 

[ohio]

4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

If you have done your homework and you marry her for the right reasons, it's not that big a gamble. I have been married to the same woman for 37 years. My mom was married thrice. My one marriage has outlasted her three combined. Thing is, if it had not worked, I probably would not have done it a second time. I would have concluded it was not in the genes . 

I'm starting to think that too. I too was married for a long time, almost 35 years.  But our divorse was bitter, and am not sure if I want to go through something like that again.

My girlfriend is 16 years younger than me, and she likes living in her apartment with her cat.  I even offered her to move into my house rent free, but she declined.  She likes her privacy, and does not want to change things and I'm OK with that.