Florida Regional Finals- Great Match-ups in Top 2 Classes

[181pl]

Some excellent round 3 match ups across several classes:

8A-

Apopka @ Seminole-  Seminole is home and undefeated. Apopka is on a roll. Hard to bet against Rick Darlington.

Steinbrenner @ Osceola- Steinbrenner is an upstart with a good QB and receivers. Osceola is established and has an excellent defense. Leaning towards Osceola, but would not be surprised with a Steinbrenner close road win (like they pulled off last week at Sarasota Riverview)

Deerfield Beach @ Vero Beach- Vero rarely loses in the regular season but can't finish in the playoff. Leaning towards Bucks over Indians, as (per FL board), Vero hasn't beaten a district champ in the playoff in 16 years.

Western @ Columbus- Upstart Western travels to perennial bridesmaid Columbus. Should be close, but Columbus program just has too much experience. I'll go with Explorers by 7.

 

7A-

Niceville @ Edgewater - But for Edgewater's road loss to Marietta, they would probably be considered a top 50 team. It's a long way from Niceville (410 miles) to Orlando. Both programs have a decent playoff history, but no titles. Travelling 410 miles will be tough to overcome for Niceville, so I'll go with Edgewater. If this was the other way around, I'd pick Niceville. Think the teams are fairly even.

LAKELAND @ ARMWOOD- This is a TITANIC battle of multi-time state champs. Appears to be a pretty even match up. Lakeland has one of the best players in the country in Bowman and he is the X factor. Not making a pick. But if Armwood keeps him to under 150 yards, they have a good chance of beating Lakeland. Armwood's only loss was a multiple overtime loss on the road to a very good N. Gwinnett team in the early part of the year. Lakeland had a cup cake regular season schedule. Both teams had tough games last week, but Tech was actually able to get a second half lead over Lakeland until Bowman broke out to give them a 7 point win. 

Venice @ Manatee- Neither team set the world on fire this year. But Manatee has been hot of late, and did easily handle Venice in the regular season. I'll go with the Canes, but in a very close game, as Venice is a salty veteran in the playoffs for the last several years and is used to getting pretty far.

Atlantic @ STA- Atlantic is a good team, but they don't have the athletes or pedigree to beat STA at STA. I'll say STA by 17 or more.

 

I'll post on the other classes tomorrow...

 

 

 

[ECHS05]

Hated taking Apopka @ Seminole off the Pick Em. Great matchup.

Interested in Lakeland-Armwood.

[Nolebull813]

31 minutes ago, 181pl said:

Some excellent round 3 match ups across several classes:

8A-

Apopka @ Seminole-  Seminole is home and undefeated. Apopka is on a roll. Hard to bet against Rick Darlington.

Steinbrenner @ Osceola- Steinbrenner is an upstart with a good QB and receivers. Osceola is established and has an excellent defense. Leaning towards Osceola, but would not be surprised with a Steinbrenner close road win (like they pulled off last week at Sarasota Riverview)

Deerfield Beach @ Vero Beach- Vero rarely loses in the regular season but can't finish in the playoff. Leaning towards Bucks over Indians, as (per FL board), Vero hasn't beaten a district champ in the playoff in 16 years.

Western @ Columbus- Upstart Western travels to perennial bridesmaid Columbus. Should be close, but Columbus program just has too much experience. I'll go with Explorers by 7.

 

7A-

Niceville @ Edgewater - But for Edgewater's road loss to Marietta, they would probably be considered a top 50 team. It's a long way from Niceville (410 miles) to Orlando. Both programs have a decent playoff history, but no titles. Travelling 410 miles will be tough to overcome for Niceville, so I'll go with Edgewater. If this was the other way around, I'd pick Niceville. Think the teams are fairly even.

LAKELAND @ ARMWOOD- This is a TITANIC battle of multi-time state champs. Appears to be a pretty even match up. Lakeland has one of the best players in the country in Bowman and he is the X factor. Not making a pick. But if Armwood keeps him to under 150 yards, they have a good chance of beating Lakeland. Armwood's only loss was a multiple overtime loss on the road to a very good N. Gwinnett team in the early part of the year. Lakeland had a cup cake regular season schedule. Both teams had tough games last week, but Tech was actually able to get a second half lead over Lakeland until Bowman broke out to give them a 7 point win. 

Venice @ Manatee- Neither team set the world on fire this year. But Manatee has been hot of late, and did easily handle Venice in the regular season. I'll go with the Canes, but in a very close game, as Venice is a salty veteran in the playoffs for the last several years and is used to getting pretty far.

Atlantic @ STA- Atlantic is a good team, but they don't have the athletes or pedigree to beat STA at STA. I'll say STA by 17 or more.

 

I'll post on the other classes tomorrow...

 

 

 

Rick Darlington coaches in Alabama now, not Apopka 

[181pl]

Wow. Apopka still seems to be doing it.

 

I also forgot that Niceville was the 1998 state champs.

[181pl]

Nolebull813, who do you like in the Seminole Apopka matchup? I think it's going to be a pretty good game.

 

Also love the Niceville Edgewater matchup.

 

Going to try to get to Lakeland at Amwood on Friday. It's that one gets too crowded, I may head down to Gaither. You going to any games this Friday?

[Columbiafan]

17 minutes ago, 181pl said:

Wow. Apopka still seems to be doing it.

 

I also forgot that Niceville was the 1998 state champs.

I thought it was 1988 or 89

[Nolebull813]

1 hour ago, 181pl said:

Wow. Apopka still seems to be doing it.

 

I also forgot that Niceville was the 1998 state champs.

1988 for Niceville 

[181pl]

https://www.al.com/sports/2018/12/enterprise-opens-checkbook-to-lure-championship-coach-from-florida.html

 

Good for Darlington.

[Columbiafan]

3 hours ago, Nolebull813 said:

1988 for Niceville 

Didn't pine Forest also win state that year in a different class?

[Nolebull813]

43 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

Didn't pine Forest also win state that year in a different class?

Yes the panhandle completely dominated the state in the 80’s. 

 

[954gator]

Will armwood vs lakeland be streamed?

[ATLien12x]

1 minute ago, 954gator said:

Will armwood vs lakeland be streamed?

Yessir it’s on NFHS Network. So is Niceville vs Edgewater and Apopka vs Seminole. 

Lot of good Georgia and Alabama matchups on NFHS this weekend too. This is always the best month to get NFHS 

[954gator]

3 minutes ago, ATLien12x said:

Yessir it’s on NFHS Network. So is Niceville vs Edgewater and Apopka vs Seminole. 

Lot of good Georgia and Alabama matchups on NFHS this weekend too. This is always the best month to get NFHS 

I was hoping Lakeland would have it on their youtube.   They do a pretty good job.  

[954gator]

American Heritage vs Miami Northwestern and Lakeland vs Armwood are definitely the best games for FL IMO.  

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, 954gator said:

I was hoping Lakeland would have it on their youtube.   They do a pretty good job.  

All their home games are. I don't think they do the away ones, but you should check as the game is worth watching.

[Nulli Secundus]

42 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

All their home games are. I don't think they do the away ones, but you should check as the game is worth watching.

Correct.  Lakeland only streams the home games.

[badrouter]

My thoughts on Lakeland @Armwood:

I really am trying to give as objective a take here as possible. I type this assuming the best OL (Lampkin) and best DL (Glinton) are out for Lakeland.

Lakeland Offense:

Lakeland has always had a more "multiple", sophisticated running game than most H.S. teams. This has become more pronounced as originality in offensive football is now largely out the window. Yes, in a way, Lakeland is simple in what they do. But, the formations, blocking schemes and personnel groupings will not be like what most other H.S teams have seen. This is obviously an advantage against teams whose players and coaches are not particularly familiar with them (longtime observers of the program will know and recognize most everything they see, however).  Add in what may well be the best running back in the country in Demarkcus Bowman, and the 'Naughts have a chance to put up points on anyone.  The other two running backs (JaKari Martin and Reggie Kellum) would start for several hundred other high school teams and figure to get 10-12 carries as well. The passing game, featuring 3* QB and Auburn commit Chayil Garnett and 4* WR Arian Smith (possibly the fastest HS football player in the country)...has been a rather huge disappointment. Smith looks to me to have very high "bust" potential. He's demonstrated iffy hands and seems hesitant to go grab the ball when it's up in the air. Watching him run is a thing of beauty. But, there are times I swear the thought running through his mind as the ball is in the air is something like "I have an amazing track future!". The other WR has not impressed, either. The younger WRs in the program show more promise to me. So, they appear to need to continue to run the heck out of the ball. With Willie Lampkin, I think they're good enough to do this on anyone. Without him, elite DLs like Armwood and STA figure to be too stout to run at will on.

Lakeland Defense:

There was (and still is) reason to believe this defense is as good or better than any that they've had when at full strength. The DL of DE/DT Gabe Dindy (6'3" 260), soph. with many major offers already; DE Cleo Anglin (6'3", 235) some FCS offers despite being an unknown at a bad program last year; DT Dadrion James (6'0", 320), started at Kathleen last year and DE/DT Ryshawn Glinton (6'2" 270) considered a MEAC type player. Willie Lampkin sees spot duty here as well. This unit has the size and athleticism to dominate most OLs and hang in there with the STA offensive line (I think). The back seven uses six defensive backs at most all times. Two of those DBs were known as physical, hard hitting safeties last year and have been trained to play-and labeled-as linebackers. So, they still call themselves a 4-3 defense. The secondary has 4* CB Kendall Dennis, who was in Texas at The Opening; Dook Graham, a Florida commit who was a star on last year's team as well; Zay Roberson, who was thought to be a high level recruit before off the field problems caused him to miss all of last season; and a rotation of other good players, including a couple of taller, physical CBs. 

Lakeland Special Teams:

Lethal returners (Graham, Dennis, Smith) capable of taking any kick against any team to the house. Generally good coverage units with all of the athletes they have. Average punter (QB Garnett) and probably a mediocre kicker but, by the low HS standards, kind of average. Poor snaps and/or holds have meant the field goal and EP tries have been an adventure.

Armwood Offense:

Spread attack with excellent skill position players, namely 2021 5* WR Agiye Hall. The offense does have a record of questionable to poor performances in big games the last couple of years. Way too much talent on the field for them to count on them not scoring much, however.

Armwood Defense:

Probably the best, most imposing pair of defensive tackles in the country. Both are over 300 lbs and rated 4* by Rivals.  Many who've seen them are convinced both will be playing on Sundays. And the secondary is also elite with major prospects and many picks. Very fast defense. Seven (7) shutouts on the year. NOBODY has had any sort of running game against them. A review of North Gwinnet's QB highlights from the game shows a QB under heavy pressure making throws into very tight windows. The team that did the best against them (17 points in regulation; a 2OT win at home) appeared to labor tremendously to get what they got. Armwood outgained NG 271-205 for the game.

Prediction:

This may be the hardest game to read (objectively, anyway) for Lakeland that I can recall in many years. I've expected Lakeland's D to largely be able to control Armwood's offense. But, last week's game (indeed largely impacted by numerous 15 yard penalties, a style of offense/personnel that's a bad match up, and no Ryshawn Glinton or Lampkin) raises questions for Lakeland. On offense, Bill Castle can dial up some ball plays. And he's got the best RB he's ever had to ride. But, Armwood's D is built to stop the run. And they have a very highly regarded D-coordinator. Without Willie Lampkin, I don't see Lakeland being able to win the LOS to enough of a degree to get the job done. In the kicking game, the lack of a reliable field-goal kicking unit also may hurt Lakeland against a defense that prides itself on keeping teams out of the end zone.

The formula for Lakeland to win involves the defense creating scores and/or short fields off turnovers and the kicking game generating big returns. The formula for Armwood to win involves much of the same. Armwood is at home. They don't usually have much of a home-field advantage. But, for the biggest game they've hosted in ~15 years, they will have a boisterous crowd.

Lakeland will find themselves inside the Armwood 20 several times, but will be turned away on many of them without a sufficient kicking game against a stout defense. Armwood will get one big play TD, one short field TD, and a FG. Lakeland will get  a TD with a botched EP and a TD late while trailing 17-6 to close to 17-12. Armwood wins 17-12.  

[181pl]

Both teams have very good defenses and pretty good offenses. The offensive strength for Lakeland is obviously the running game. For Wood more of the passing game. But they too can try to grind it out. This should be a barn burner.

[Columbiafan]

9 hours ago, badrouter said:

My thoughts on Lakeland @Armwood:

I really am trying to give as objective a take here as possible. I type this assuming the best OL (Lampkin) and best DL (Glinton) are out for Lakeland.

Lakeland Offense:

Lakeland has always had a more "multiple", sophisticated running game than most H.S. teams. This has become more pronounced as originality in offensive football is now largely out the window. Yes, in a way, Lakeland is simple in what they do. But, the formations, blocking schemes and personnel groupings will not be like what most other H.S teams have seen. This is obviously an advantage against teams whose players and coaches are not particularly familiar with them (longtime observers of the program will know and recognize most everything they see, however).  Add in what may well be the best running back in the country in Demarkcus Bowman, and the 'Naughts have a chance to put up points on anyone.  The other two running backs (JaKari Martin and Reggie Kellum) would start for several hundred other high school teams and figure to get 10-12 carries as well. The passing game, featuring 3* QB and Auburn commit Chayil Garnett and 4* WR Arian Smith (possibly the fastest HS football player in the country)...has been a rather huge disappointment. Smith looks to me to have very high "bust" potential. He's demonstrated iffy hands and seems hesitant to go grab the ball when it's up in the air. Watching him run is a thing of beauty. But, there are times I swear the thought running through his mind as the ball is in the air is something like "I have an amazing track future!". The other WR has not impressed, either. The younger WRs in the program show more promise to me. So, they appear to need to continue to run the heck out of the ball. With Willie Lampkin, I think they're good enough to do this on anyone. Without him, elite DLs like Armwood and STA figure to be too stout to run at will on.

Lakeland Defense:

There was (and still is) reason to believe this defense is as good or better than any that they've had when at full strength. The DL of DE/DT Gabe Dindy (6'3" 260), soph. with many major offers already; DE Cleo Anglin (6'3", 235) some FCS offers despite being an unknown at a bad program last year; DT Dadrion James (6'0", 320), started at Kathleen last year and DE/DT Ryshawn Glinton (6'2" 270) considered a MEAC type player. Willie Lampkin sees spot duty here as well. This unit has the size and athleticism to dominate most OLs and hang in there with the STA offensive line (I think). The back seven uses six defensive backs at most all times. Two of those DBs were known as physical, hard hitting safeties last year and have been trained to play-and labeled-as linebackers. So, they still call themselves a 4-3 defense. The secondary has 4* CB Kendall Dennis, who was in Texas at The Opening; Dook Graham, a Florida commit who was a star on last year's team as well; Zay Roberson, who was thought to be a high level recruit before off the field problems caused him to miss all of last season; and a rotation of other good players, including a couple of taller, physical CBs. 

Lakeland Special Teams:

Lethal returners (Graham, Dennis, Smith) capable of taking any kick against any team to the house. Generally good coverage units with all of the athletes they have. Average punter (QB Garnett) and probably a mediocre kicker but, by the low HS standards, kind of average. Poor snaps and/or holds have meant the field goal and EP tries have been an adventure.

Armwood Offense:

Spread attack with excellent skill position players, namely 2021 5* WR Agiye Hall. The offense does have a record of questionable to poor performances in big games the last couple of years. Way too much talent on the field for them to count on them not scoring much, however.

Armwood Defense:

Probably the best, most imposing pair of defensive tackles in the country. Both are over 300 lbs and rated 4* by Rivals.  Many who've seen them are convinced both will be playing on Sundays. And the secondary is also elite with major prospects and many picks. Very fast defense. Seven (7) shutouts on the year. NOBODY has had any sort of running game against them. A review of North Gwinnet's QB highlights from the game shows a QB under heavy pressure making throws into very tight windows. The team that did the best against them (17 points in regulation; a 2OT win at home) appeared to labor tremendously to get what they got. Armwood outgained NG 271-205 for the game.

Prediction:

This may be the hardest game to read (objectively, anyway) for Lakeland that I can recall in many years. I've expected Lakeland's D to largely be able to control Armwood's offense. But, last week's game (indeed largely impacted by numerous 15 yard penalties, a style of offense/personnel that's a bad match up, and no Ryshawn Glinton or Lampkin) raises questions for Lakeland. On offense, Bill Castle can dial up some ball plays. And he's got the best RB he's ever had to ride. But, Armwood's D is built to stop the run. And they have a very highly regarded D-coordinator. Without Willie Lampkin, I don't see Lakeland being able to win the LOS to enough of a degree to get the job done. In the kicking game, the lack of a reliable field-goal kicking unit also may hurt Lakeland against a defense that prides itself on keeping teams out of the end zone.

The formula for Lakeland to win involves the defense creating scores and/or short fields off turnovers and the kicking game generating big returns. The formula for Armwood to win involves much of the same. Armwood is at home. They don't usually have much of a home-field advantage. But, for the biggest game they've hosted in ~15 years, they will have a boisterous crowd.

Lakeland will find themselves inside the Armwood 20 several times, but will be turned away on many of them without a sufficient kicking game against a stout defense. Armwood will get one big play TD, one short field TD, and a FG. Lakeland will get  a TD with a botched EP and a TD late while trailing 17-6 to close to 17-12. Armwood wins 17-12.  

Good analysis

 

Maybe we should get the admins to take the guru name from Los and give it to you since you give much better breakdowns than Los ever could 

[Columbiafan]

37 minutes ago, 181pl said:

Both teams have very good defenses and pretty good offenses. The offensive strength for Lakeland is obviously the running game. For Wood more of the passing game. But they too can try to grind it out. This should be a barn burner.

How much an impact would Armwood being at home play?

[Nulli Secundus]

36 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

How much an impact would Armwood being at home play?

Small, if any.  Lakeland brings the house and I fully expect that game to be standing room only.  I wish I could make it down to Florida for that game.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, Columbiafan said:

How much an impact would Armwood being at home play?

 

37 minutes ago, Nulli Secundus said:

Small, if any.  Lakeland brings the house and I fully expect that game to be standing room only.  I wish I could make it down to Florida for that game.

As Nulli said, small. Although in different counties, the two schools are close to each other, much closer than several schools in Orange County (Orlando) are. And Lakeland travels well for games like this. I am pretty sure it will be standing room only. 

[954gator]

@Nulli Secundus  Is it me or did Lakeland's offense run a bit smoother with the backup QB?    He was pretty damn accurate.

[Nulli Secundus]

3 hours ago, 954gator said:

@Nulli Secundus  Is it me or did Lakeland's offense run a bit smoother with the backup QB?    He was pretty damn accurate.

When your number is called, it's time to perform, lol.  Seriously, that's what I've heard but I can't speak on that.

[badrouter]

8 hours ago, 954gator said:

@Nulli Secundus  Is it me or did Lakeland's offense run a bit smoother with the backup QB?    He was pretty damn accurate.

That was my thought as well. I assume they're thinking Garnett has the stronger arm and is two years older, so ride with him. Not sure that was the best call. I will say Garnett has been more impressive as a runner than I anticipated. The QB pulling the ball on the zone read when the D keys on Bowman is essential for Lakeland. As I've said, we're all going to have to be able to see why Garnett is rated 3* and was tabbed by Gus Mahlzan as a possible future Auburn QB in order for Lakeland to win 7A. If Guru is correct, and he's no more impactful on the game than Dymonski McWilliams was, I don't think Lakeland gets the job done, even if they do get the lineman back.