Is coronavirus changing?

[Bormio]

The Italians are saying the virus is weakening and is much less lethal than 6-8 weeks ago.  That fits with what we are seeing here - cases are fairly flat or rising in some places, but hospitalizations and deaths are falling steadily.  Less reports in young people.  It really seems something is different.

[Bormio]

Just now, GardenStateBaller said:

 

Yeah, that too.  But the pattern has been present at least 3-4 weeks

[I AM IRONMAN]

11 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

 

It's old news...ratings baby!

[The Guru]

One thing that we can say about Dr. Quack.

He's consistent.

This is him claiming that the numbers were flattening.........in March.

On 3/26/2020 at 1:55 PM, Bormio said:

The author of the Imperial College study that scared everyone saying 500,000 could die in the U.K. and 2.2 million in the US, has revised his estimates, saying that U.K. deaths could be around 20,000 and not half a million.  This might comport with what we are seeing - Italy’s numbers are flattening in growth with 8,000 dead.  If they lose 20,000 or so - that would be the same as 100,000 here - except our death rate is considerably lower.  A recent projection out of Oxford is along these lines.  There is a good write-up on this at hotair.com

[DownSouth]

19 hours ago, Bormio said:

The Italians are saying the virus is weakening and is much less lethal than 6-8 weeks ago.  That fits with what we are seeing here - cases are fairly flat or rising in some places, but hospitalizations and deaths are falling steadily.  Less reports in young people.  It really seems something is different.

 

Seems different... just not in the USA.

5/26: 19,031 new cases and 774 deaths

5/27: 20,546 new cases and 1,535 deaths

5/28: 22,658 new cases and 1,223 deaths

5/29: 25,069 new cases and 1,212 deaths

5/30: 23,290 new cases and 1,015 deaths

5/31: 20,350 new cases and 638 deaths

 

I'm not seeing falling cases or deaths in any encouraging way (especially now that most places are at least 50% open and these protests and subsequent riots will set off spread too). You want to talk about what was different? - They ALL kept their lock downs and distancing in place in Europe until the data told them it was okay to start opening up.

They did NOT fall victim to some idiot yelling LIBERATE TUSCANY! and then open the entire country up a month or two too early because they got worried about their re election prospects and some skinny guys with little dicks and big rifles loitering around the botanical gardens all pissy because they couldn't do their weekly fancy dinner at the Olive Garden.

So tell me, seriously, based on the data, what do you see that's different HERE?

We'll likely see a slow decline in cases and deaths for a couple of weeks due to the remnants of social distancing that was working. By July 4th I expect the numbers to return to problematic levels even though it's the summer.

 

[Bormio]

22 minutes ago, DownSouth said:

 

Seems different... just not in the USA.

5/26: 19,031 new cases and 774 deaths

5/27: 20,546 new cases and 1,535 deaths

5/28: 22,658 new cases and 1,223 deaths

5/29: 25,069 new cases and 1,212 deaths

5/30: 23,290 new cases and 1,015 deaths

5/31: 20,350 new cases and 638 deaths

 

I'm not seeing falling cases or deaths in any encouraging way (especially now that most places are at least 50% open and these protests and subsequent riots will set off spread too). You want to talk about what was different? - They ALL kept their lock downs and distancing in place in Europe until the data told them it was okay to start opening up.

They did NOT fall victim to some idiot yelling LIBERATE TUSCANY! and then open the entire country up a month or two too early because they got worried about their re election prospects and some skinny guys with little dicks and big rifles loitering around the botanical gardens all pissy because they couldn't do their weekly fancy dinner at the Olive Garden.

So tell me, seriously, based on the data, what do you see that's different HERE?

We'll likely see a slow decline in cases and deaths for a couple of weeks due to the remnants of social distancing that was working. By July 4th I expect the numbers to return to problematic levels even though it's the summer.

 

We were over 2000 deaths a day for a long time, now 1000 a day for the last week - despite opening up.  Active cases are nearly flat - all despite opening for several weeks.  Hospitalizations have declined along with deaths.  The percentage of positive tests has fallen everywhere - indicating the case numbers likely due to more testing, not increasing infections.

[DownSouth]

47 minutes ago, Bormio said:

We were over 2000 deaths a day for a long time, now 1000 a day for the last week - despite opening up.  Active cases are nearly flat - all despite opening for several weeks.  Hospitalizations have declined along with deaths.  The percentage of positive tests has fallen everywhere - indicating the case numbers likely due to more testing, not increasing infections.

We fell under those numbers due to fairly strict distancing measures. Since the general timeline is 2-14 days for incubation (average of 5) then another 7-8 to seek treatment for serious cases, followed by another 8 days for death; it seems like we haven't really seen the numbers from re opening yet (we're at the tail end of the lockdown effect, which clearly is showing it worked and would've continued to had we not opened stuff up).

The numbers are falling off a bit as summer months move in and make outside transmission more difficult. (This is why I was hoping to keep lockdown for an extra 30-45 days, had we done so we very likely could have finished the virus off long enough for the vaccine to be delivered).

My point was that even if the virus is burning out a bit, we, as a country, are not doing the right things when the data told us we could. We opened back up about 30-45 days before we should have for strictly political reasons.

Study on Social Distancing

Spain had no deaths the other day (first time since March); not because the virus burned out over there but because they held firm on their plan and got through it by following the data.

If you're fine with 1,000+ deaths a day and marching more towards full re opening, fine, but even a weakened virus is still going to rip through vulnerable people and a fair amount of healthy people for quite a while longer.

Another month or so of keeping things in place and we could've worked down to zero daily deaths around September. There is no magic bullet that ends this, we were doing the right things and then the country got weak and soft (plenty of people on here bitching they couldn't go to a shitty Mexican restaurant or their dingy gym, like babies).

[Bormio]

20 minutes ago, DownSouth said:

We fell under those numbers due to fairly strict distancing measures. Since the general timeline is 2-14 days for incubation (average of 5) then another 7-8 to seek treatment for serious cases, followed by another 8 days for death; it seems like we haven't really seen the numbers from re opening yet (we're at the tail end of the lockdown effect, which clearly is showing it worked and would've continued to had we not opened stuff up).

The numbers are falling off a bit as summer months move in and make outside transmission more difficult. (This is why I was hoping to keep lockdown for an extra 30-45 days, had we done so we very likely could have finished the virus off long enough for the vaccine to be delivered).

My point was that even if the virus is burning out a bit, we, as a country, are not doing the right things when the data told us we could. We opened back up about 30-45 days before we should have for strictly political reasons.

Study on Social Distancing

Spain had no deaths the other day (first time since March); not because the virus burned out over there but because they held firm on their plan and got through it by following the data.

If you're fine with 1,000+ deaths a day and marching more towards full re opening, fine, but even a weakened virus is still going to rip through vulnerable people and a fair amount of healthy people for quite a while longer.

Another month or so of keeping things in place and we could've worked down to zero daily deaths around September. There is no magic bullet that ends this, we were doing the right things and then the country got weak and soft (plenty of people on here bitching they couldn't go to a shitty Mexican restaurant or their dingy gym, like babies).

There is no certainty on either vaccine or treatment - the history with coronaviruses is not very encouraging.  A month turns into two, into 4, into 18 for the “no opening until it is gone” crowd.  The behavior of the virus is highly unpredictable.  Likewise we have little understanding of which social distancing measures worked and which were useless.  The purpose of social distancing was to flatten the curve, not eradicate the virus while we ruined the country.

[thc6795]

2 hours ago, Bormio said:

There is no certainty on either vaccine or treatment - the history with coronaviruses is not very encouraging.  A month turns into two, into 4, into 18 for the “no opening until it is gone” crowd.  The behavior of the virus is highly unpredictable.  Likewise we have little understanding of which social distancing measures worked and which were useless.  The purpose of social distancing was to flatten the curve, not eradicate the virus while we ruined the country.

So we should see one hell of a spike after this past weeks gatherings? I sure the hell didn't see any social distancing.

[I AM IRONMAN]

1 hour ago, thc6795 said:

So we should see one hell of a spike after this past weeks gatherings? I sure the hell didn't see any social distancing.

Expect a confused emoji from DBP 66.... because that little snowflake just doesn't get it

[DBP66]

9 hours ago, I AM IRONMAN said:

Expect a confused emoji from DBP 66.... because that little snowflake just doesn't get it

I see I need to start paying you rent again mam for taking up so much room in that simple mind of yours mam...LOL..🤡

[The Guru]

16 hours ago, DownSouth said:

So tell me, seriously, based on the data, what do you see that's different HERE?

If there's one person, with absolute certainly, that you should not listen to it's Dr. Quack.

On 5/31/2020 at 8:35 PM, Bormio said:

The Italians are saying the virus is weakening and is much less lethal than 6-8 weeks ago.  That fits with what we are seeing here - cases are fairly flat or rising in some places, but hospitalizations and deaths are falling steadily.  Less reports in young people.  It really seems something is different.

On 3/26/2020 at 1:55 PM, Bormio said:

The author of the Imperial College study that scared everyone saying 500,000 could die in the U.K. and 2.2 million in the US, has revised his estimates, saying that U.K. deaths could be around 20,000 and not half a million.  This might comport with what we are seeing - Italy’s numbers are flattening in growth with 8,000 dead.  If they lose 20,000 or so - that would be the same as 100,000 here - except our death rate is considerably lower.  A recent projection out of Oxford is along these lines.  There is a good write-up on this at hotair.com

Somehow everything is always "in line with what we're seeing" even if it's, you know, 100% wrong.

Nobody has been more wrong more consistently than this clown. And yet he keeps coming back to be more wrong.

[I AM IRONMAN]

A democratic tyranny...LOL

[I AM IRONMAN]

Snowflake has mothing to sat

#boscoembarrasment

[NorCalRuss]

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

PA is focked. 

Is this the pizza guy 66?

[I AM IRONMAN]

36 minutes ago, NorCalRuss said:

Is this the pizza guy 66?

Yes it is...humidity is weighing her curls down

[DarterBlue]

On 6/1/2020 at 12:24 PM, The Guru said:

One thing that we can say about Dr. Quack.

He's consistent.

This is him claiming that the numbers were flattening.........in March.

It's actually pretty scary this guy is a medical doctor. I most certainly would never, ever under any circumstance, seek his professional services. The only consolation that could possibly come from doing so is having my bereaved see the services of Morgan & Morgan in an effort to be compensated for my untimely demise. 

[DBP66]

9 hours ago, I AM IRONMAN said:

Snowflake has mothing to sat

#boscoembarrasment

...LOL...🤡

[DBP66]

9 hours ago, NorCalRuss said:

Is this the pizza guy 66?

the pizza guy is GSB...the guy who lost the pizza bet...don't be fooled by the "fake news" from your fellow clowns Russel..🤡

[Bormio]

Cases have slowly declined over last 6 weeks, but are increasing in some places and declining in the Northeast.  But deaths continue to fall a lot - down over 50% from the peak (based on a 7 day average).  And are continuing to fall - approaching 900/day now based on the 7 day average.  Hospitalizations are declining.  All points to less lethality of the virus.

[I AM IRONMAN]

On 6/3/2020 at 8:30 PM, NorCalRuss said:

Is this the pizza guy 66?

Yes it is a $14 pizza...he knows he welched...the while board knows he welched...such a pathetic loser.

[Bormio]

Looks as if there will be under 400 Covid deaths reported in the US today.  Sundays are light, but not that light.  This would be the lowest number of deaths since March 26th.  People are getting infected, but not dying at a significantly lower rate than 6-8 weeks ago.

[DownSouth]

On 6/6/2020 at 4:38 PM, Bormio said:

Cases have slowly declined over last 6 weeks, but are increasing in some places and declining in the Northeast.  But deaths continue to fall a lot - down over 50% from the peak (based on a 7 day average).  And are continuing to fall - approaching 900/day now based on the 7 day average.  Hospitalizations are declining.  All points to less lethality of the virus.

 

I'd like to believe that's the case, but I think you're undervaluing the fact that New York's apparent defeat over the virus (for the time being) is the biggest factor in these numbers.

New York peaked around 950 deaths in a day and had a fairly sustained peak of 550-750 deaths per day (climb and fall). Now, they're coming in with less than 50 per day, and on some days stay in the neighborhood of single digits.

Add the usual NY numbers back in and the country is still seeing 1300-1700 deaths a day.

NY, of course, had the toughest lockdown - and while their run with the virus was the most brutal, their strategy to end it is showing to be most successful.

We'll see what happens with deaths by early July. I hope they'll show lower death rates or numbers overall; but Florida has 5,000 new cases in 4 days; Arizona in that same time frame is piling up more cases than FL (or close to as many) each day (AZ has 14 million less people than FL...that can't be good for hospitals).

[Bormio]

15 minutes ago, DownSouth said:

 

I'd like to believe that's the case, but I think you're undervaluing the fact that New York's apparent defeat over the virus (for the time being) is the biggest factor in these numbers.

New York peaked around 950 deaths in a day and had a fairly sustained peak of 550-750 deaths per day (climb and fall). Now, they're coming in with less than 50 per day, and on some days stay in the neighborhood of single digits.

Add the usual NY numbers back in and the country is still seeing 1300-1700 deaths a day.

NY, of course, had the toughest lockdown - and while their run with the virus was the most brutal, their strategy to end it is showing to be most successful.

We'll see what happens with deaths by early July. I hope they'll show lower death rates or numbers overall; but Florida has 5,000 new cases in 4 days; Arizona in that same time frame is piling up more cases than FL (or close to as many) each day (AZ has 14 million less people than FL...that can't be good for hospitals).

The cases nationwide have fallen by 20% or so from the peak / deaths by 60%.  Maybe NY was a setup for excessive lethality, but still.

[Bormio]

So the WHO now says asymptomatic transmission is quite rare, masks are useless and social distancing should be 3 feet.  I am unsure as to what the truth is, but am sure a lot of expert opinion in this whole affair will be shown to be total BS.