Hispanics Shifting to GOP

[DBP66]

5 minutes ago, concha said:

 

I don't care.

The polls are him vs Abbott

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/tx/texas-governor-abbott-vs-orourke-7376.html

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Abbott (R)	O'Rourke (D)	Spread
RCP Average	10/14 - 12/6	--	--	46.5	38.8	Abbott +7.7
Quinnipiac	12/2 - 12/6	1224 RV	2.8	52	37	Abbott +15
Dallas Morning News	11/9 - 11/16	1106 RV	3.2	45	39	Abbott +6
UT/Texas Tribune	10/22 - 10/31	1200 RV	2.8	46	37	Abbott +9
Rice University	10/14 - 10/27	1402 RV	2.6	43	42	Abbott +1

All Texas Governor - Abbott vs. O'Rourke Polling Data

 

 

LOL..you don't care??..because he just announced he's running less than a month ago champ....slow down with your landslide win...the abortion law is a game changer....give Beto some time and wait until neighbors start turning their neighbors in for having an abortion....go get em' Texas....🙄

[concha]

1 minute ago, DBP66 said:

LOL..you don't care??..because he just announced he's running less than a month ago champ....slow down with your landslide win...the abortion law is a game changer....give Beto some time and wait until neighbors start turning their neighbors in for having an abortion....go get em' Texas....🙄

 

So what?

He's a prominent Dem pol in Texas without a job.

That latest poll, from just last week, has him down by 15.

That's with him declared and the abortion law old news.

Are you and Andy in a stupid contest with each other today?

 

[DBP66]

1 minute ago, concha said:

 

So what?

He's a prominent Dem pol in Texas without a job.

That latest poll, from just last week, has him down by 15.

That's with him declared and the abortion law old news.

Are you and Andy in a stupid contest with each other today?

 

less than a month....let him make his way around that big state....look for that 15pt. margin to come down champ.....😉

[concha]

1 minute ago, DBP66 said:

less than a month....let him make his way around that big state....look for that 15pt. margin to come down champ.....😉

 

I'm sure his gun confiscation schtick will launch him to the head of the pack in Texas.

I hear there's a Dem in Idaho who wants to ban potatoes.

He's a lock too.

 

[DBP66]

1 minute ago, concha said:

 

I'm sure his gun confiscation schtick will launch him to the head of the pack in Texas.

I hear there's a Dem in Idaho who wants to ban potatoes.

He's a lock too.

 

and he can always point to Abbott being a Trump boot licker of the extreme...a guy with no balls...😉

[concha]

Just now, DBP66 said:

and he can always point to Abbott being a Trump boot licker of the extreme...a guy with no balls...😉

 

Hey, right!

Trump only won Texas by nearly 10 points.

And Abbott only by 13 last time.

 

[DBP66]

2 minutes ago, concha said:

 

Hey, right!

Trump only won Texas by nearly 10 points.

And Abbott only by 13 last time.

 

and then we had Trump leading an insurrection...remember?....Jan. 6th ring a bell....🙄

[concha]

2 minutes ago, DBP66 said:

and then we had Trump leading an insurrection...remember?....Jan. 6th ring a bell....🙄

 

No, in fact.

"I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..."

"Please support our Capitol Police and Law Enforcement. They are truly on the side of our Country. Stay peaceful!"

 

And he wasn't even at the Capitol.

 

But cool story, bro.

 

[DBP66]

4 minutes ago, concha said:

 

No, in fact.

"I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..."

"Please support our Capitol Police and Law Enforcement. They are truly on the side of our Country. Stay peaceful!"

 

And he wasn't even at the Capitol.

 

But cool story, bro.

 

he said the word "fight" 21 times...he got his point across...they knew what their leader wanted them to do....he said he was "going to lead" them to the capital....and his response to the riot????.....😪

[concha]

Things seem to be going not as they expected... 😂

https://unherd.com/thepost/hispanic-americans-are-no-longer-minority-voters/

Consider that figure 1, based on 2018 Pew data, shows a steady shift across generations of Hispanic-origin Americans, away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans. Political scientists Álvaro Corral and David Leal find that third generation Latinos were significantly more likely than the newly arrived to vote for Trump in 2016.

This arguably undercounts the change since Hispanics of part non-Hispanic white background who vote Republican are more likely to identify as white on a survey rather than Hispanic.

 

Now consider the minority vote in figure 3. In 2008, the US experienced another JFK moment when Obama became the first nonwhite president. As with Kennedy’s victory, there was a surge of enthusiasm from his ethnic category, with 75% of nonwhites identifying as Democrats that year.

However, by 2019, the last year available in the ANES, just 50% of nonwhites identified as Democrats. Minorities have been transitioning from Democratic party identification to being Independent. However, if the historic white Catholic pattern is a guide, this could be a prelude to growing Republican party identification — and thus election success — among minorities.

 

 

 

 

 

[AztecPadre]

On 12/9/2021 at 9:20 AM, concha said:

Rut roh...

Folks finally recognizing the lies, bullshit and pandering for what it is?

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hispanic-voters-now-evenly-split-between-parties-wsj-poll-finds-11638972769

Hispanic Voters Now Evenly Split Between Parties, WSJ Poll Finds

Republicans have made rapid gains among a crucial voting demographic that has long favored Democrats

 

One year after giving Democratic House candidates more than 60% of their vote, according to polls at the time, the Journal survey found that Hispanic voters are evenly split in their choice for Congress. Asked which party they would back if the election were today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican congressional candidate and 37% said they would favor the Democrat, with 22% undecided.

Hispanic voters were also evenly divided when asked about a hypothetical rematch in 2024 of the last presidential contenders, with 44% saying they would back President Biden and 43% supporting former President Donald Trump. In 2020, Mr. Biden won 63% support among Hispanic voters, nearly 30 points more than Mr. Trump, according to AP VoteCast, a large survey of the presidential electorate.

‘Latinos are more and more becoming swing voters.…They’re a swing vote that we’re going to have to fight for.’

— Democratic pollster John Anzalone

Hispanic voters account for about 1 in 8 eligible voters and are one of the fastest-growing groups in the electorate, factors that compound Democratic fears about any deterioration in support.

 

If you mean Cuban and Venezuelans then yes.  The others?  HELL NO!!!!!!!!!!!!  

[concha]

41 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

If you mean Cuban and Venezuelans then yes.  The others?  HELL NO!!!!!!!!!!!!  

 

Look into the shift along the Texas border with Mexico.

LOADS of Cubanos y Venezolanos there. 🤣

Maybe you can wise up too.

LMAO

 

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-texas-latinos-trump/

https://www.axios.com/gop-mayor-race-hispanic-mcallen-texas-democrats-51da98f1-1e49-45e1-904b-24723dc8a47a.html

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a36318452/republicans-gain-texas-hispanic-voters/

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/582970-hispanic-support-for-republicans-hardline-immigration-policies-may-keep

... according to exit polls, Trump won 32 percent of the Latino vote nationally (up from 28 percent in 2016) and 41 percent of the Latino vote in Texas (up from 34 percent in 2016). In the Rio Grande Valley’s two most populous countries (Hidalgo and Cameron; directly across the border from Mexico), where Hispanics account for more than 90 percent of the population, Trump won 41 percent and 43 percent of the vote in 2020 (up from 28 percent and 32 percent, respectively, in 2016). 

...Texas Hispanics will in large part determine whether Texas remains red or turns purple or even blue this decade. For years commentators have predicted Texas would turn blue as the Hispanic share of the state population increased, to the point where in 2022 it will eclipse the Anglo population. 

But that prediction depended on Hispanics voting overwhelmingly for Democrats, something not seen in the Lone Star State, where statewide GOP candidates continue to win between 35 percent and 45 percent of the Hispanic vote.  

If current Hispanic support for Republican immigration policies is any signal, we can expect Texas Republicans to maintain the backing of roughly two-fifths of Texas Hispanic voters in the 2022 midterms. This would mean the continuation of the Republican statewide winning streak that dates back to 1996 and a GOP net gain of between one and three U.S. House seats. This advantage could prove pivotal to the Republican effort to retake control of the U.S. House.

[concha]

Que Viva La Raza, AztecPadre!

 

This is an article from a bootlicking libtard toady on the level of Andy.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/biden-hispanic-voters-democrats-problem/index.html

Democrats have a major problem with Hispanic voters

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 6:30 PM ET, Thu December 9, 2021

 

... In Florida, Trump won 46% of the Latino vote, a performance that allowed him to win the state more easily than expected. In Texas, Trump took 41% of the Latino vote, again helping him to a win in the state. Nationally, he won 32% of the Hispanic vote, an improvement from the 28% he had taken in 2016.

New polling from The Wall Street Journal suggests those 2020 numbers weren't an anomaly.

 

Asked whether they would vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in 2022, Latinos were split right down the middle, with 37% choosing each side.

 

Asked who they would vote for if the 2024 race was held today, 44% opted for President Joe Biden while 43% went with Trump.  And, Biden's approval ratings among Hispanics in the poll were problematic as well. Just 42% approved of the job he is doing as President while 54% disapproved. Among Hispanic men, that number was even worse -- with 61% disapproving of how Biden is doing

 

 

[Atticus Finch]

The number of fallacies contained in this one thread breaks previous records set by concha, bormio, etc.

• Comparing Presidential election vote share to a poll of midterm voter preference is purposefully misleading which is quintessential concha.
• Biden is "losing ground" with *every* voting block except maybe Democrats as a whole. The governing President pretty much always uniformly losses support in the midterm. In fact, concha posted a graph showing just this phenomenon.
• The Hispanic gains in Florida was just the result of increasing turnout with an *already* reliably Republican voting block (Cubans).

They hyped this very same thing in 2020 when they claimed that Trump had made "big" gains with Hispanics. The big gain? Going from 28% to 32% of the vote. So they went from getting crushed to still getting crushed.

George Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. Republicans shifting to the GOP?! Nah, John McCain then won 31% in 2008 and Mitt Romney won 27% in 2012.

In other words, Trump's performance with Hispanics is perfectly in line with other recent Republican results. There's no statistically relevant evidence of any Republican shift.

[Atticus Finch]

On 12/10/2021 at 10:26 AM, concha said:

1) Cubans - at least those not indoctrinated by government schools - know leftist idiots and the danger they pose.

Cubans who are indoctrinated by their grandparents spout empty cliches about Democrats.

I think that's what you mean.

The actual, real Hispanic problem in Florida is that the farther removed a Cuban gets from having family who lived on the island the less likely they are to be Republican.

[Atticus Finch]

On 12/10/2021 at 10:26 AM, concha said:

One of my favorite things to do is laugh when people like concha brag about getting crushed by 50 points.

[Atticus Finch]

Flashback to when bormio used poll data to make a stupid point about the youth vote.

👇

On 5/4/2020 at 8:37 PM, Bormio said:

Survey from Harvard Kennedy school of government shows Biden’s favorable/unfavorable at 34/47 among voters 18-29.  More young voters have a very favorable view of Trump than Biden.  Combine that with softness with Latinos and maybe even some Sanders voters and tell me how Biden wins.  He needs more than African Americans and women.  If Trump comes even close to splitting the youth vote ... I just don’t think Biden can overcome that.  Registered voter polls are very capable of being misleading.  It is about who actually votes.

"Biden was -13 with youth voters in the summer of 2020! Tell me how he can win with these numbers!"

Biden won voters aged 18-29 by 24 points (60-36).

[concha]

38 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

The number of fallacies contained in this one thread breaks previous records set by concha, bormio, etc.

• Comparing Presidential election vote share to a poll of midterm voter preference is purposefully misleading which is quintessential concha.
• Biden is "losing ground" with *every* voting block except maybe Democrats as a whole. The governing President pretty much always uniformly losses support in the midterm. In fact, concha posted a graph showing just this phenomenon.
• The Hispanic gains in Florida was just the result of increasing turnout with an *already* reliably Republican voting block (Cubans).

They hyped this very same thing in 2020 when they claimed that Trump had made "big" gains with Hispanics. The big gain? Going from 28% to 32% of the vote. So they went from getting crushed to still getting crushed.

George Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. Republicans shifting to the GOP?! Nah, John McCain then won 31% in 2008 and Mitt Romney won 27% in 2012.

In other words, Trump's performance with Hispanics is perfectly in line with other recent Republican results. There's no statistically relevant evidence of any Republican shift.

 

1) You might want to let Pew know about that, as their data shows a clear shift of minorities toward the Republicans in recent years. While 75% of minorities self-identified as Dems in 2008 (and the number had hovered around 70% since 1980), the number as of 2019 was 51%.

2) Amongst all Hispanics, data indicates that while first generation Hispanics (in aggregate) have a 23% party lean toward Republicans, by the 3rd generation that number increases to 37%.

3) You might want to reach out to your fellow leftist bootlickers like Chris Cillizza, because he's nervous.  In your analysis, Andy, how often have Hispanic polling numbers been split 50/50? Both congressional and presidential?

"Latinos are more and more becoming swing voters," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who helped conduct the WSJ poll. "They're a swing vote that we're going to have to fight for."

 

I'm sure it's all in their imaginations, Andy.  I'm glad you're not nervous.

 

[concha]

28 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

Cubans who are indoctrinated by their grandparents spout empty cliches about Democrats.

I think that's what you mean.

The actual, real Hispanic problem in Florida is that the farther removed a Cuban gets from having family who lived on the island the less likely they are to be Republican.

 

You like to proclaim what you think I mean, and are almost invariably wrong.

 

[concha]

27 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

One of my favorite things to do is laugh when people like concha brag about getting crushed by 50 points.

 

Annnddd  Andy gets it wrong.

Again.

 

The point - which unsurprisingly soared over Andy's tiny melon - is that Dems count on the minority vote to remain Dem or Dems don't win many key elections. More and more this is especially true of he rapidly growing Latino/Hispanic vote.  Every Latino who switches their vote to Republican is a +2 for the Republicans and a kick to the balls of the Democrats.

 

[Atticus Finch]

39 minutes ago, concha said:

1) You might want to let Pew know about that, as their data shows a clear shift of minorities toward the Republicans in recent years.

Why would I have to do that?

I just look at the actual vote percentages in actual elections.

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how_groups_voted

Republican share of Hispanic vote

2000: 35%

2004: 44%

2008: 31%

2012: 27%

2016: 28%

2020: 32%

Republicans are getting less of the Hispanic vote than they did 20 years ago under with George Bush.

[Atticus Finch]

22 minutes ago, concha said:

While 75% of minorities self-identified as Dems in 2008 (and the number had hovered around 70% since 1980), the number as of 2019 was 51%.

I think it's funny that people use polling when real vote counts actually exist. They do this because the actual numbers don't support their wishes.

Biden won at least 55% of every minority group. He won at least *65%* of the two largest minority groups.

Using a 2019 poll instead of 2020 vote counts is purposefully misleading.

You're burying the actual facts.

[Atticus Finch]

28 minutes ago, concha said:

3) You might want to reach out to your fellow leftist bootlickers like Chris Cillizza, because he's nervous.

I don't like Chris Cillizza and his job seems to be to write doomsday articles several times a week.

But you are intellectually incapable of making any arguments other than about "leftist bootlickers."

It's funny to watch you go back to that same well over and over again.

Pathetic.

[Atticus Finch]

29 minutes ago, concha said:

In your analysis, Andy, how often have Hispanic polling numbers been split 50/50? Both congressional and presidential?

I don't know.

But I bet it's as often as voters 18-29. Both Hillary and Biden were under water and both won by double digits.

[Atticus Finch]

40 minutes ago, concha said:

I'm sure it's all in their imaginations, Andy.  I'm glad you're not nervous.

I know that you're drowning when you constantly go to people's opinions rather than the actual data.