Is next week next time?

[15yds4gibberish]

 

5 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

Will be a tad interesting next week as fed chairman Powell also has a chess move decision to make… rate hike or not and how much on the federal funds rate.   Latest CalPreps prediction is 25 basis point increase.  

Perhaps a poker move reference is better suited with the recent financial (banks) chaos.  
UBS is likely going to take over failing Credit Suisse in Switzerland last I heard on the financial circuit.  

Golf,

Next week "will be wild."  Not sure what the Fed is going to do, but the Calpreps prediction seems like a good bet.

Been reading about SVB, and would be interested to hear your hot takes as I'm pretty sure they will be more sophisticated than mine, but I'll share anyway.  It's complicated, but here are a couple:

• Rising interest rates are revealing a financial system that had only planned for low interest rates in perpetuity.  I won't be too surprised if things go weird in other places we aren't thinking about yet.
• If this bank had been called 'First Agricultural of Iowa,' it would have been no problem for the government to step in and say 'we're here to shore up, deposits are backed 100 cents on the dollar' -- Just as they have 79 other times since 2008.  The Silicon Valley "brand" is that bad these days - Not without reason.

PS - Clinton peeking through the window is a nice touch. 😉

[FreeBird]

Hours after Donald Trump announced in a caps lock rant that he anticipates getting arrestednext week, his former vice president Mike Pence joined the chorus of Republicans criticizing the Manhattan district attorney and questioning his motives.

“Like many Americans, I’m just, I’m taken aback,” Pence told SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Saturday morning after Trump’s Truth Social post. “You have a major crime wave in New York, especially in New York City. You have literally a Democratic party that’s literally dismantled the criminal justice system in that city, undercut the NYPD, and this is what the Manhattan DA says is their top priority?,” referring to Alvin Bragg.

[concha]

10 minutes ago, FreeBird said:

Hours after Donald Trump announced in a caps lock rant that he anticipates getting arrestednext week, his former vice president Mike Pence joined the chorus of Republicans criticizing the Manhattan district attorney and questioning his motives.

“Like many Americans, I’m just, I’m taken aback,” Pence told SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Saturday morning after Trump’s Truth Social post. “You have a major crime wave in New York, especially in New York City. You have literally a Democratic party that’s literally dismantled the criminal justice system in that city, undercut the NYPD, and this is what the Manhattan DA says is their top priority?,” referring to Alvin Bragg.

 

TDS

This DA will be treated like a hero while Rome burns around them.

 

[DBP66]

LOL..you clowns are crying now?!...LOL...the next 3 cases against him will be even worse...😉

[FreeBird]

2 minutes ago, DBP66 said:

LOL..you clowns are crying now?!...LOL...the next 3 cases against him will be even worse...😉

 

[DBP66]

5 minutes ago, FreeBird said:

 

yea...reality is he's guilty of all their charges against him...he's 0-4....0-5 if you want to count the NY case he just lost a few months ago ....😉

[golfaddict1]

On 3/18/2023 at 4:11 PM, 15yds4gibberish said:

 

Golf,

Next week "will be wild."  Not sure what the Fed is going to do, but the Calpreps prediction seems like a good bet.

Been reading about SVB, and would be interested to hear your hot takes as I'm pretty sure they will be more sophisticated than mine, but I'll share anyway.  It's complicated, but here are a couple:

• Rising interest rates are revealing a financial system that had only planned for low interest rates in perpetuity.  I won't be too surprised if things go weird in other places we aren't thinking about yet.
• If this bank had been called 'First Agricultural of Iowa,' it would have been no problem for the government to step in and say 'we're here to shore up, deposits are backed 100 cents on the dollar' -- Just as they have 79 other times since 2008.  The Silicon Valley "brand" is that bad these days - Not without reason.

PS - Clinton peeking through the window is a nice touch. 😉

SVB imo was more like a Credit Suisse and less like a UBS (who did buy Credit Suisse).  
 

More risk taking with loans and with your interest rate hike mention (at a very quick pace which certainly didn’t help) sprinkled with nagging inflation and a SVB choice of a large hedge against treasuries moving in the opposite direction.  No bueno.   Not sure what % of regional banks also hedged this way, but they should have had balances within a threshold to cover withdrawals, just not likely at such a rapid pace initially.  With today’s online banking theme, it was easy for folks and businesses to withdraw and transfer to big banks.  

On this forum side, months back I was posting as the rates rose about what a nice safe haven for 4 plus % with treasuries.  With not much risk, 5% is still in play and with short term high yield bonds, 7-9% pct is in play.  
It’s really hard as a long term investor to stay in equities right now, but I need to play historical %’s in my decision making process and you know how much I enjoy playing with numbers .  

11 am your time, Fed chair Powell will likely boost another 25 basis points.  We shall see.  

[15yds4gibberish]

29 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

...
11 am your time, Fed chair Powell will likely boost another 25 basis points.  We shall see.  

Nice post Golf, thank you.  I'm hoping they will take a pause while more data comes in, but you are probably right.  We'll see.

[golfaddict1]

Forgot to mention, Jaime Dimon (JP Morgan) is heading a group of banking leaders to decide on a likely large boost to the 250K bank insured threshold.  This should/will help the regional banks.    Dimon is also in the news regarding Epstein’s bank holdings at JP Morgan and what knowledge Dimon had of him personally regarding his illegal activities.  

JP Morgan himself was a badass.  But his incredible wealth couldn’t buy Teddy Roosevelt and down went Morgan’s RR monopoly.  The market share dominance by the original industrialists was ending. 
 

 

[concha]

4 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Forgot to mention, Jaime Dimon (JP Morgan) is heading a group of banking leaders to decide on a likely large boost to the 250K bank insured threshold.  This should/will help the regional banks.    Dimon is also in the news regarding Epstein’s bank holdings at JP Morgan and what knowledge Dimon had of him personally regarding his illegal activities.  

JP Morgan himself was a badass.  But his incredible wealth couldn’t buy Teddy Roosevelt and down went Morgan’s RR monopoly.  The market share dominance by the original industrialists was ending. 
 

 

 

The Trust Buster

 

[golfaddict1]

23 minutes ago, 15yds4gibberish said:

Nice post Golf, thank you.  I'm hoping they will take a pause while more data comes in, but you are probably right.  We'll see.

Agreed.  Seems like the market had already factored in 25 basis points, so the Jimmy the Greeks think Powell will take the 1 foot putt gimme.   With the financial chaos of late, if Powell does hold off, it may spook the market as a “what does he know that we don’t” mindset.  That could be the other areas mention you made perhaps as a risk.  

[golfaddict1]

@15yds4gibberish, +25 basis points.  Gimme putt.  
Market staying green for now.   Rising actually.  
Powell speech to come.  He might accelerate the green or cause a reversal.   As Maxwell Smart would say, “Siegfried, the ol Dovish or Hawkish speech selection play”.   Looking fwd to his speech and Q and A session.  

 

[golfaddict1]

@15yds4gibberishthe final 30 minutes of regular hours trading the bears took the bulls to the deep end of the pool.    
… all of  a sudden the weather got rough and if not for the courage of the fearless crew, more $ would be lost.  #gilligan #skipper