Lakeland is the reason we have super teams in Florida

[Atticus Finch]

19 minutes ago, badrouter said:

You're really just talking about 2012-2016. Before that, they were a major player every year (1996-2011).

No, I'm not. Lakeland went 9 straight years without a state championship appearance (2009-2017).

For reference, STA has appeared in the state championship in 9 of the last 10 years.

10 of the last 12 years.

11 of the last 14 years.

12 of the last 16 years.

16 of the last 20 years.

I can assure you that these weren't all the greatest teams in school history or all nationally ranked either.

[Atticus Finch]

25 minutes ago, badrouter said:

2017: Lakeland choked vs. Plant, but STA had its weakest team of the last 20 years.

2017 is irrelevant because neither team got to states. I'm talking about verifiable instances where STA was there and Lakeland was a no show.

[Atticus Finch]

30 minutes ago, badrouter said:

2019: Lakeland had a huge transfer pull and added a Power 5 deep threat at WR to compliment Bowman while STA had a soph QB. STA would be favored, but only in retrospect and only by a modest enough margin that everyone would still have acknowledged Lakeland could've conceivably won.

Sorry, lost by double digits to Armwood. I don't have to acknowledge anything. If we started adding up "could conceivably" then it would be a pointless exercise.

[Atticus Finch]

32 minutes ago, badrouter said:

2022: Even Larry Blustein agrees that Lakeland had the best defense in the state.

😄

Against, who?

 

[Atticus Finch]

33 minutes ago, badrouter said:

2023: Lakeland had the weapons to score points on anyone (both Norland and SJP had the most points scored against them by Lakeland).

One of your enduring legacies is your ability to cherry-pick in one year and then pivot and cherry-pick something completely different from another.

It's great that you scored the most points against teams that you went 0-2 against and surrendered 93 points to. I guess defense only mattered in 2022?

[Atticus Finch]

36 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Lakeland played the tougher schedule, and was severely impacted by injuries and suspension throughout the season.

😄

You are a riot dude. Really.

Too bad not a single human with an address outside Polk County or a single algorithm agrees.

[badrouter]

12 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

😄

Against, who?

 

Against all of the other 2022 defenses. You once said you put a lot of stock into what he says, so maybe ask him. 

[Atticus Finch]

2 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Against all of the other 2022 defenses. You once said you put a lot of stock into what he says, so maybe ask him. 

I never said that. I said that he was right about Cormani McClain being overrated and that I agreed.

By the way, no algorithm seems to agree with you on this one either.

L

O

L

[Atticus Finch]

Full disclosure: I don't completely buy-in to Massey's unit ratings.

But it's just funny.

badrouter is alone on every single thing he says.

I take that back. PCGoofball probably agrees with him.

[badrouter]

11 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

One of your enduring legacies is your ability to cherry-pick in one year and then pivot and cherry-pick something completely different from another.

It's great that you scored the most points against teams that you went 0-2 against and surrendered 93 points to. I guess defense only mattered in 2022?

Teams change from year to year. Defense would've been the main reason a 2022 match up would've been a toss-up. Offense is why 2023 would've been a toss-up. The 2023 team had an almost entirely new lineup, a new head coach and new coordinators. It stands to reason that the early season games wouldn't be their best work. And the CAI loss was rather fluky and was played without several key players, as were the first two playoff games. 

[Atticus Finch]

5 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Against all of the other 2022 defenses. You once said you put a lot of stock into what he says, so maybe ask him. 

By the way, I mean who as in who did they play?

Lakeland's 2022 schedule was an abomination of slapdick proportions.

[Atticus Finch]

2 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Teams change from year to year. 

As does your evaluation criteria.

[badrouter]

12 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

😄

You are a riot dude. Really.

Too bad not a single human with an address outside Polk County or a single algorithm agrees.

"tougher schedule" doesn't necessarily refer to the average rating of every single team played. Distinguishing one bad team from another bad team is a pretty useless exercise. What matters is how strong the top half-dozen or so teams are. Only west coast homers, or STA fans in the context of this thread, will state that SJB is definitely better than SJP in 2023. The truth is that's no worse than a push for SJP this season. Norland is better than Cocoa. Venice is better than any team STA played in the playoffs, and that may be the case with Buchholz as well. If you switch Lakeland and STA's classes, both still win titles this year...

[badrouter]

9 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

I never said that. I said that he was right about Cormani McClain being overrated and that I agreed.

By the way, no algorithm seems to agree with you on this one either.

L

O

L

I would be thoroughly amused to read someone's take attempting to explain what explains the 0.93 advantage STA has there. I think I'd probably pay $ for that, actually.

[Atticus Finch]

6 minutes ago, badrouter said:

"tougher schedule" doesn't necessarily refer to the average rating of every single team played.

I agree.

But that's all we've got. Otherwise, we'd  just have to take your word for it which is a giant LOL.

[badrouter]

Never underestimate the power of the hyper-improvement button. Here is a photo of me pressing the button back in November:

 

[badrouter]

1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said:

I agree.

But that's all we've got. Otherwise, we'd  just have to take your word for it which is a giant LOL.

If one actually believes calpreps and/or Massey are credible enough to be truth, they could just find the average of the top x or y teams, rather than the entire schedule. 

[Atticus Finch]

12 minutes ago, badrouter said:

What matters is how strong the top half-dozen or so teams are.

Let's line them up.

I'd take:

#3 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA),  #38 Cocoa (FL), #159 Homestead (FL) , #243 Coconut Creek (FL), #302 Western (Davie, FL), #331 Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie, FL)

Over:

#14 St. Joseph's Prep (Philadelphia, PA), #74 Norland (Miami, FL), #104 Buchholz [F. W.] (Gainesville, FL), #116 Venice (FL), #351 Clearwater Academy International (Clearwater, FL), #779 Lake Minneola (Minneola, FL)

Again, the only standard in which you come out on top is the "just believe me" standard.

[Atticus Finch]

12 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Venice is better than any team STA played in the playoffs, and that may be the case with Buchholz as well. If you switch Lakeland and STA's classes, both still win titles this year...

😄

Your love for Venice will never cease.

But I do love your insistence that average opponent rating shouldn't matter but that teams at the level of Venice and Buchholz somehow *should* matter when compared to similar teams like Coconut Creek and Homestead.

[Atticus Finch]

14 minutes ago, badrouter said:

I would be thoroughly amused to read someone's take attempting to explain what explains the 0.93 advantage STA has there. I think I'd probably pay $ for that, actually.

It sure as shit beats your "trust me, bro" advantage.

[Atticus Finch]

8 minutes ago, badrouter said:

If one actually believes calpreps and/or Massey are credible enough to be truth, they could just find the average of the top x or y teams, rather than the entire schedule. 

I mean, you can do that yourself.

You'd still lose with that method.

[181pl]

2 hours ago, badrouter said:

You're really just talking about 2012-2016. Before that, they were a major player every year (1996-2011). After that, with the school choice changes that were implemented ahead of the 2017 season, I'd argue there were five different seasons where Lakeland would have been capable of beating STA.

2017: Lakeland choked vs. Plant, but STA had its weakest team of the last 20 years.

2018: Lakeland beat STA by two touchdowns

2019: Lakeland had a huge transfer pull and added a Power 5 deep threat at WR to compliment Bowman while STA had a soph QB. STA would be favored, but only in retrospect and only by a modest enough margin that everyone would still have acknowledged Lakeland could've conceivably won.

2022: Even Larry Blustein agrees that Lakeland had the best defense in the state. Two Power 5 OLs to go with two Power 5 WRs would've given them the chance to get enough done to win a game

2023: Lakeland had the weapons to score points on anyone (both Norland and SJP had the most points scored against them by Lakeland). STA would've piled up the points, too. But, as we saw with Buchholz, if the QB run game isn't a threat, the defense was able to hang in a little better than they did against arguably the two most prolific dual-threat QBs in the country. STA being defeated at home by Cocoa, and narrowly beating Homestead, reveals the Raiders weren't in vintage form this season. Lakeland played the tougher schedule, and was severely impacted by injuries and suspension throughout the season.

dude, three los Lakeland this year would’ve got routed by Saint Thomas. They had a great offense but their defense was a sieve compared to a lot of other years. Last year they would have a punchers chance. I agree with that.

[badrouter]

54 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

Let's line them up.

I'd take:

#3 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA),  #38 Cocoa (FL), #159 Homestead (FL) , #243 Coconut Creek (FL), #302 Western (Davie, FL), #331 Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie, FL)

Over:

#14 St. Joseph's Prep (Philadelphia, PA), #74 Norland (Miami, FL), #104 Buchholz [F. W.] (Gainesville, FL), #116 Venice (FL), #351 Clearwater Academy International (Clearwater, FL), #779 Lake Minneola (Minneola, FL)

Again, the only standard in which you come out on top is the "just believe me" standard.

But there's no reason to put any stock into those ratings. We could compare the six teams independent of computer ratings. 

SJP was better in 2023 than 2022-this was mostly understood all along. There's no reason to believe SJB was better this season. I'd bet your coaching staff would concede that SJB-SJP would've been a toss-up this season. Norland was better than Cocoa. Buchholz and Venice were better than Cooconut Creek and Western and likely at least equal to Homestead. Homestead beat CAI by 2, so they'd barely even be better than Lakeland's #5. Lake Minneola and TC are both strange teams with uniquely strong and weak areas. The way LM throws the ball, they'd almost certainly be in a tight game with TC, just like they were with 3S champ Mainland.

[badrouter]

58 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

It sure as shit beats your "trust me, bro" advantage.

No, it doesn't. I mean, we haven't even heard the case explained yet. But, at present, it is the same as "trust me, bro".

[badrouter]

3 minutes ago, 181pl said:

dude, three los Lakeland this year would’ve got routed by Saint Thomas. They had a great offense but their defense was a sieve compared to a lot of other years. Last year they would have a punchers chance. I agree with that.

That's silly. STA wasn't able to route Cocoa or Homestead! I know you don't follow the teams very closely these days. But, if you told coaches who know those three public schools that their jobs rely on Cocoa or Homestead beating Lakeland, they'd be shitting their pants big-time. No one who knows what they're talking about and is honest will tell you they're certain either of those teams are better than Lakeland at the end of the season.