2018 Tier Placement - Final

[Sammyswordsman]

11 minutes ago, StingMan44 said:

Ummm...how does Centennial (AZ) drop a tier? Won 49-0 and 42-0 the last two weeks. Yes, their region schedule is pretty weak but thats nothing they can control and it doesn’t mean they got worse somehow.

Valid question.  Their best win was by 6 points over a very down BG.   Also I think they are a tier below Pinnacle which stayed within 7 of JSerra, and Chandler

[StingMan44]

14 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Valid question.  Their best win was by 6 points over a very down BG.   Also I think they are a tier below Pinnacle which stayed within 7 of JSerra, and Chandler

Yet the vast majority of the journalists in the state have them ahead of both.

https://arizonavarsity.rivals.com/news/the-2018-week-8-state-forty-eight-2018-power-48

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/high-school/2018/10/13/arizona-high-school-football-rankings-through-week-9/1630973002/

[Sammyswordsman]

4 minutes ago, StingMan44 said:

Yet the vast majority of the journalists in the state have them ahead of both.

https://arizonavarsity.rivals.com/news/the-2018-week-8-state-forty-eight-2018-power-48

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/high-school/2018/10/13/arizona-high-school-football-rankings-through-week-9/1630973002/

Good info and links.  Thanks.  My experience is that most newspapers and polling places place way to much emphasis on Won/loss records without looking deeper.  

I will however look much closer at Centennial AZ, and they could really jump with a relevant win in the playoffs

[World Citizen]

What about Christian Brothers?  Played SJC really close.  Tier 2?  And MV and OLU are same tier, whatever tier that is.  IMHO.

[Sammyswordsman]

15 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

What about Christian Brothers?  Played SJC really close.  Tier 2?  And MV and OLU are same tier, whatever tier that is.  IMHO.

Per the metrics, we add teams people are interested in,  Thus Christian Brothers have been added to a Tier 3.   Mission Viejo and Folsom reclassified to Tier 4, same as OLU

[WCACguy]

2 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB, SJC, Miami Central, 

 

Tier 2 -   St. Louis, North shore (tx),  SFA, STA,  Cen10,  Allen,  SJP, JSerra,  Colerain, ULAB,  LIncoln Way East (IL), Carol City FL

 

Tier 3 -   St. Edwards, Cass Tech (MI), Arch Bishop Hoban,   Muskegon (MI), John Curtis, Katy, Chandler (AZ),  Colquitt County, Parkview, Mentor OH. DLS, Pinnacle AZ,  Warren Central (Ind), Grayson, Christian Brothers 

 

Tier 4 - , Massillon, SPP, De Paul, Good Council, Blessed Trinity (Ga), St. Iggy,  West Monroe,  OLU, SJR, Archer,   Parkview, Rome, Bergen Catholic, Centennial (AZ), Trinity Christian FL, Columbia FL, Aledo, Jokes Christian, Mission Viejo, Folsom

Tier 5 -    Marrieta, Hoover, DeMatha, Lowndes, Gonzaga, Milton Ga, Bishop Gorman, Archer, Bishop Amat

 

Tier 6 -      Bingham,  Milton,  Walton, North Gwinett, Pick Central, DBP, Deerfield Beach

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Not bad...no big arguments from me.

[StingMan44]

1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Good info and links.  Thanks.  My experience is that most newspapers and polling places place way to much emphasis on Won/loss records without looking deeper.  

I will however look much closer at Centennial AZ, and they could really jump with a relevant win in the playoffs

Out scored their 8 opponents 260-10 through the first 3 quarters of games. Given up 48 points on the year, 31 of those in garbage time (4th qtr with at least 28 point lead). 

[Sammyswordsman]

23 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Don't disparage my client!!! #1 in MO deserves as much respect as any other states #1!

They are a high Tier 3.  We’ll see how SJC finishes out 

[BraceFace69]

After that performance MD should be Tier 3

[ECHS05]

Colquitt doesnt deserve to be Tier 2?

[Wooderson]

5 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Valid question.  Their best win was by 6 points over a very down BG.   Also I think they are a tier below Pinnacle which stayed within 7 of JSerra, and Chandler

Except Centennial has played Pinnacle several times over the years  (as recently as last year) and has never lost to them. No good reason to think that this season would be any different.

This also ignores the fact that Pinnacle has nothing more than a series of garbage wins this season. Liberty win was only win that is conceivably on par with Centennial's three best wins (Gorman, Cienega, Casteel).

Reality is you're far too willing to reward teams for losing games than reward teams for continuing to win in dominating fashion.

[abbatt]

If you had a 2.5 Tier.....I would put LWE...Christian Brothers and Colerain in there.

LWE is very good...but I don`t see them quite hanging with the remaining Tier 2 teams minus Colerain.

So i would put LWE in Tier 3 and Colquitt or Warren Central in Tier 2.

[StingMan44]

5 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Valid question.  Their best win was by 6 points over a very down BG.   Also I think they are a tier below Pinnacle which stayed within 7 of JSerra, and Chandler

They were a Tier above Pinnacle and Chandler in the last few weeks and suddenly they are a tier below based on nothing new?? Garbage!

[ECHS05]

15 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Except Centennial has played Pinnacle several times over the years  (as recently as last year) and has never lost to them. No good reason to think that this season would be any different.

This also ignores the fact that Pinnacle has nothing more than a series of garbage wins this season. Liberty win was only win that is conceivably on par with Centennial's three best wins (Gorman, Cienega, Casteel).

Reality is you're far too willing to reward teams for losing games than reward teams for continuing to win in dominating fashion.

There is though. This is Pinnacles best team ever. Or atleast in the last 33 years.

[Wooderson]

33 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

There is though. This is Pinnacles best team ever. Or atleast in the last 33 years.

Not saying much considering Pinnacle's never made it past the second round of the playoffs in three wholely unique enrollment classes. They're an elite quarterback and a never ending series of mediocre receivers in a division that plays very little defense.

Pinnacle's history is that they get bent over by any team capable of getting physical with them. Aside from Chandler that team doesn't exist in Arizona's 6A division.

[StingMan44]

19 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

There is though. This is Pinnacles best team ever. Or atleast in the last 33 years.

Last 33 years? Where did you get that number? The school itself opened in the late 90’s but you wouldn’t know that as you don’t follow Arizona high school closely.....which obviously doesn’t stop you from thinking you know more about it than those that do.

 

 

[Sammyswordsman]

38 minutes ago, StingMan44 said:

They were a Tier above Pinnacle and Chandler in the last few weeks and suddenly they are a tier below based on nothing new?? Garbage!

Things change in a week.  Like MD losing badly to SJB which only beat JSerra by 7, which only beat Pinnacle by 7

on the other hand Pinnacle only beat BG by 6, which got slaughtered by MD 0-49.  So there that to consider 

[Wooderson]

51 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Things change in a week.  Like MD losing badly to SJB which only beat JSerra by 7, which only beat Pinnacle by 7

on the other hand Pinnacle only beat BG by 6, which got slaughtered by MD 0-49.  So there that to consider 

All that's great and all yet doesn't change the fact that Pinnacle has been Centennial's effeminate cell mate for 15+ years. Centennial is the more complete, better team than Pinnacle-all the one score losses in the world isn't going to change that.

[Sammyswordsman]

11 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

All that's great and all yet doesn't change the fact that Pinnacle has been Centennial's effeminate cell mate for 15+ years. Centennial is the more complete, better team than Pinnacle-all the one score losses in the world isn't going to change that.

Plus Centennial barely beat Pinnacle at home last year by 3 points.   Since then Cen 10 star RB graduated but Pinnacle has their star QB back as a senior 

[Sammyswordsman]

1 hour ago, ECHS05 said:

Colquitt doesnt deserve to be Tier 2?

I think Parkview May be the best team in Ga at this point.  What do you think ?

[Wooderson]

32 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Plus Centennial barely beat Pinnacle at home last year by 3 points.   Since then Cen 10 star RB graduated but Pinnacle has their star QB back as a senior 

Funny thing about that Pinnacle-Centennial game was how Centennial pulled off two two-minute drives to close out each half (including the game winner) without throwing a single pass. It's a text book example of how meaningless the scoreboard can be in assessing how two teams compare to one another-Centennial asserted their will in every phase of the game and forced Pinnacle to play a style of ball that they were never going to beat Centennial with.

...and Pinnacle's defense continues to be a dumpster fire (surrendered 400+ yards in 6 of 8 games) and Centennial's offense has been as balanced as it has been over the past decade). Oh, and Pinnacle STRUGGLED to beat a pair of. 500 ball clubs from Horizon and Valley Vista (and needed a 21-point second half rally to beat Liberty with a dinged-up D1 middle 'backer) while Centennial has absolutely scalped three potential region champions by a combined score of 112-28 (against teams with a combined record of 19-2 in games against teams not named Centennial).  I get it, Pinnacle played JSerra close...doesn't change the fact that even when playing garbage Arizona teams they've yet to do a single thing to assert themselves as a legitimate threat to Chandler. 

You can criticize local writers for being too generous in rewarding teams who keep winning but the reality is you lack any and all context of the local games Pinnacle has played. They aren’t rewarding Centennial for continuing to win, they're recognizing how unbecoming it is for a title contender to be trailing Valley Vista at halftime.

 

[Sammyswordsman]

9 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Funny thing about that Pinnacle-Centennial game was how Centennial pulled off two two-minute drives to close out each half (including the game winner) without throwing a single pass. It's a text book example of how meaningless the scoreboard can be in assessing how two teams compare to one another-Centennial asserted their will in every phase of the game and forced Pinnacle to play a style of ball that they were never going to beat Centennial with.

...and Pinnacle's defense continues to be a dumpster fire (surrendered 400+ yards in 6 of 8 games) and Centennial's offense has been as balanced as it has been over the past decade). Oh, and Pinnacle STRUGGLED to beat a pair of. 500 ball clubs from Horizon and Valley Vista (and needed a 21-point second half rally to beat Liberty with a dinged-up D1 middle 'backer) while Centennial has absolutely scalped three potential region champions by a combined score of 112-28 (against teams with a combined record of 19-2 in games against teams not named Centennial).  I get it, Pinnacle played JSerra close...doesn't change the fact that even when playing garbage Arizona teams they've yet to do a single thing to assert themselves as a legitimate threat to Chandler. 

You can criticize local writers for being too generous in rewarding teams who keep winning but the reality is you lack any and all context of the local games Pinnacle has played. They aren’t rewarding Centennial for continuing to win, they're recognizing how unbecoming it is for a title contender to be trailing Valley Vista at halftime.

 

You make good points and back up your data well.  You would be even better if you didn’t hide info unfavorable to your agenda 

[Wooderson]

1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

You make good points and back up your data well.  You would be even better if you didn’t hide info unfavorable to your agenda 

Haven't hid a damn thing, and reaching for that point without presenting anything to prove it shows a lot of cowardice.

[Sammyswordsman]

3 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Haven't hid a damn thing, and reaching for that point without presenting anything to prove it shows a lot of cowardice.

LOL.  I was counting on you to not be the #Fakenews guy from AZ.  Guess you are too emotionally vested in Centennial.  Look, you already tried to hide the weenie by saying that Pinnacle has always been Centennials Bitch, then we find out that Cen10 only beat Pinnacle by 3 points at home last year, and needed a last gasp 2  minute drive to do so.  This tells us that the teams were basically pretty much even.

Centennial struggled against a very down BG team, that was slaughtered by MD.

Pinnacles performance vs Jserra was better.

The rest of the games for both teams, mean nothing since they played crap teams.

Centennial graduated their best player, Pinnacle has their best player (QB) back.   At this point, I see no reason that Pinnacle is not the better team by 7-10 points.

Now tell us what else you are hiding.  I already know, but will give you the chance to come clean first.

[Columbiafan]

10 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB, SJC, Miami Central, 

 

Tier 2 -   St. Louis, North shore (tx),  SFA, STA,  Cen10,  Allen,  SJP, JSerra,  Colerain, ULAB,  LIncoln Way East (IL), Carol City FL

 

Tier 3 -   St. Edwards, Cass Tech (MI), Arch Bishop Hoban,   Muskegon (MI), John Curtis, Katy, Chandler (AZ),  Colquitt County, Parkview, Mentor OH. DLS, Pinnacle AZ,  Warren Central (Ind), Grayson, Christian Brothers 

 

Tier 4 - , Massillon, SPP, De Paul, Good Council, Blessed Trinity (Ga), St. Iggy,  West Monroe,  OLU, SJR, Archer,   Parkview, Rome, Bergen Catholic, Centennial (AZ), Trinity Christian FL, Columbia FL, Aledo, Jokes Christian, Mission Viejo, Folsom

Tier 5 -    Marrieta, Hoover, DeMatha, Lowndes, Gonzaga, Milton Ga, Bishop Gorman, Archer, Bishop Amat

 

Tier 6 -      Bingham,  Milton,  Walton, North Gwinett, Pick Central, DBP, Deerfield Beach

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Agree with most but Carol City and Central should be in same tier unless one of them loses, at least until they play each other