NorCal Report, week of 11/26/18

[Cal 14]

With the SoCal teams determined for the regional CIF playoffs, the NorCal teams have mostly entered the finals stage.  Not many major surprises amongst the ranked teams, but there is some movement in the rankings this week.

 

Sac-Joaquin Section

One semifinal game goes down to the wire and another is much closer than anticipated.  At the end, the teams in the finals are generally what people expected.

1.  Folsom (D-I):  Bulldogs have yet to be challenged in the playoffs and may still not be against Monterey Trail.  Beating St. Mary's 52-7 was expected.  Folsom will, however, be watching the result of the De La Salle-Liberty game closely.  You can watch the SJS D-I title game here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifsjs/gam228c28035d.

2.  Monterey Trail (D-I):  Mustangs were tied at the half with Oak Ridge, but they bolted out to the lead with some long runs after that, winning 48-20.  Next up is Folsom.  While Monterey Trail has some athletes and is capable of big plays, it does not appear that they'll be able to keep up with the Bulldogs.

3.  Capital Christian (D-III):  Cougars don't get the same scare from Antelope that they had in the regular season, winning 31-12.  They'll have to perfect their wing-t defense in order to win the SJS D-III title against Placer, who may feel they have something to prove after last week's result.  That game will be online as well:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifsjs/gamd5fb8523d7.

4.  Central Catholic (D-II):  If you were to ask me a couple of weeks ago about a Del Oro-Central Catholic match-up, I would have favored the Golden Eagles in a tight game.  If the season were to be continuing for another month and this game was going to be played, I might say the same thing.  However, when the Raiders meet Del Oro this week for the SJS D-II crown, it will have been a touch over 3 weeks since the Eagles played a game.  I can't imagine they're going to be in much condition to take this game.  Last week, Central Catholic beat Inderkum 31-30 after the Tigers elected to go for 2 late in the 4th quarter and didn't get it.  This week's game can be seen here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifsjs/gamb86eeffd24.

5.  Inderkum (D-II):  Season complete.  Tigers fall to Central Catholic on a failed 2-point conversion attempt, 31-30.  The idea to go for 2 seemed a little strange.  They took a 12-point lead into the half before the Raiders burst out of the break with a long TD run.  Central Catholic scored 19 straight points to stake a 7-point lead, however the Tigers seemed to have taken back some of the momentum in the 4th.  Prior to scoring a TD with about a minute and a half to go, they had driven down to the red zone before throwing an interception in the end zone.  Still, on the ill-fated 2-point conversion attempt, the pass into the end zone appeared to go off the shoulder of the intended receiver and ricocheted out of bounds.  I decided to keep Inderkum above Del Oro because I don't believe the Eagles will be able to play that quite of a close game against the Raiders.

6.  Del Oro (D-II):  After the forfeit win over Jesuit, the Golden Eagles finally get to take the field against second-seeded Central Catholic.  They'll have to shake off a tremendous amount of rust in order to win this game.  The Raiders come in with a lot of momentum, utilizing a long run that helped create a huge 3rd quarter where they took the lead over Inderkum.  As previously stated, I would have made the order slightly different a couple of weeks ago.

7.  Jesuit (D-II):  Season complete.  No downward movement, as neither Oak Ridge nor Placer, did anything that would warrant moving past the Marauders.

8.  Oak Ridge (D-I):  Season complete.  Although the Trojans were able to hang close with Monterey Trail for a half, they were unable to make the adjustment at the break and ended up losing by a wide margin, 48-20.  They were generally able to prevent steady, long drives, but were victimized by the big play ability of the Mustangs.

9.  Placer (D-III):  Hillmen get a tremendous scare on a muddy field against River Valley, but win 7-6.  Muddy field or not, this game should not have been this close.  The Falcons scored what appeared to be the game-tying TD with just under 5 minutes to play, but a bad snap on the PAT could not be fielded by the holder and Placer was able to hold onto the win.  Game for the SJS D-III title against Capital Christian still should be very competitive.

 

North Coast Section

No major surprises, just one margin of victory that was bigger than expected.  Other than in the Open Division, teams will be playing their semifinals this week before having to make difficult decisions between chances of a state or section title.  It will be an interesting dynamic to see which teams try to opt for one or the other.  Once again, teams that opt for a chance at a state title will likely have a coin flip decide which finalist advances.

1.  De La Salle (D-Open):  Spartans' long break is finally over, as they will face Liberty not only for the NCS Open title, but probably the bid into the CIF State Open Division championship next week in Cerritos (Spartans are sure to advance to the Open with a win, Liberty is likely with a win).  Although DLS is the prohibitive favorite, they haven't played a game in over 3 weeks.  If they come out rusty and/or turn the ball over, Liberty is a team that could take advantage of that.  If they come out with the normal level of Spartan execution, then it will likely be a 3-4 TD win.  Look for this game here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifncs/gam2be18f7015.

2.  Liberty (D-Open):  Many might look at the score against Clayton Valley Charter and think "Wow, they really blew them out."  However, the big margin of victory may have had more to do with an Ugly Eagle collapse as anything else.  CVC led for most of the first half, 6-0, and the game was still within one score at the end of the 3rd, 14-6 (Liberty).  On the first play of the 4th, the Lions broke it open with a long TD pass.  Maybe it was just rust, as neither team had played for nearly a month due to the fires.  Having played this game should give them a very slight advantage in that category over DLS and they're going to need every advantage they can get in order to garner the upset.  Even with a loss, the Lions are guaranteed a spot in a NorCal regional.  If the game is close, I can see them possibly in D-1AA against (likely) Folsom.  If not, then it's probably D-1A, where they could face a number of different opponents.

3.  Pittsburg (D-Open):  Season complete.  As promised, the Pirates move past Clayton Valley Charter based on the much larger loss that the Ugly Eagles suffered against Liberty.

4.  Clayton Valley Charter (D-Open):  Season complete.  Ugly Eagles end up with a semi-ugly loss to Liberty in the NCS semifinals.  CVC was very competitive in this game up until the 4th quarter.  Once the Lions took the lead, the run-heavy offense that the Eagles utilize just couldn't generate the type of production to keep up.  Also, much like how we see blowouts in college championship games, I got the sense that the large margin was partially due to CVC just not feeling like they had anything left for which to play as the Liberty continued to hit them with big play after big play.  Still, in a head-to-head game against Cardinal Newman, I would still take CVC.

5.  Cardinal Newman (D-III):  After nearly a month off, the Cardinals take care of business against Encinal, 56-21.  This week, they might get a little more resistance from El Cerrito, but probably not much more.  After that, they could get one of two potential undefeated opponents in the NCS D-III title game... or not.  I think people will be talking/complaining about this coin flip situation for many years.  There does not appear to be any streaming for this week's Cardinal game.

6.  Rancho Cotate (D-II):  The three-week gap didn't stop the Cougars from clobbering American Canyon, 42-7.  Next up is Marin Catholic, who scored an upset of Granada last week, 14-7.  Although Calpreps lists this game as a strong favorite for Rancho Cotate, a other team that could reach the finals, Campolindo, beat the Wildcats 35-21 to open the season.  Campo gets Bishop O'Dowd this week in the other semifinal.  This game will be on here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/rancho-cotate-high-school-rohnert-park-ca/gam1a34284f48.

7.  Eureka (D-III):  Having had their quarterfinal victory take place on the 9th, the Loggers have patiently been awaiting their semifinal opponent.  It will be a battle of unbeatens as Eureka takes on Las Lomas this week.  The Loggers are a mild favorite, but this is a program I can see possibly opt for a section title, rather than state.  I don't believe they've won one since the merger of the East Bay teams with those from the Redwood Empire.  No streaming for this week's game is listed on NFHS Network.

 

Central Coast Section

Unlike many of the games in other NorCal sections, the CCS saw a handful of very competitive games amongst its ranked teams... still, one unexpected blowout really caught people's attention.  It appears that all of this week's finals game should be very interesting.

1.  St. Francis (D-Open II):  The Lancers bounced Serra out of the playoffs with another big win, 38-8.  This sets up a rematch for the CCS D-Open II title against Valley Christian that ended at 7-3 in the regular season.  Since that game, the junior QB has become more comfortable and both offenses have been playing at a higher level.  As one of the highest playoff point earners in the CCS, St. Francis has now reserved a placement into the NorCal regionals.  A win probably places them in D-1A, while a loss might drop them all the way to D-2A.  You can see this game here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifccs/gamd294d61dd9.

2.  Valley Christian (D-Open II):  Warriors soundly beat league rival, Mitty, 42-14.  Next up will likely be a slug-fest against St. Francis, as they are both very physical, ground-oriented teams.  With insufficient upsets taking place in other divisions, the Valley Christian will likely need to win this game to advance to a NorCal regional game.  If they do win, they will probably be placed in either D-1A or D-2AA, where they competed in 2016, falling to San Diego Madison at Sacramento State, 21-17.

3.  Wilcox (D-Open I):  Chargers overcame a solid challenge from the defending champs, Salinas, 45-27.  Although the Cowboys struck first, Wilcox used their punishing veer offense to take control the line of scrimmage for the win.  They will now take on Menlo-Atherton and their tremendous defense for the CCS D-Open I title, but they have already punched their ticket for a NorCal regional game.  With a win, I believe they're looking at anywhere from D-1A (if Valley Christian also wins) to D-3A with loss.  This week's game can be seen here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifccs/gam906ae2122b.

4.  Menlo-Atherton (D-Open I):  Bears get all they can handle against Palo Alto before prevailing 17-7.  Although the defense has been extremely strong all season, their offense has taken some time to get going sometimes.  There have also been issues with penalties.  Still, they've run off 8 straight wins since falling to the #1 team in Colorado, Valor Christian, including a 30-0 drubbing of CCS D-Open III finalist, Sacred Heart Prep.  Like a couple of teams above them, Menlo-Atherton has also already qualified to advance to a NorCal regional game.  I can see them as high as D-2A with a win or D-3A with a loss.

5.  Serra (D-Open II):  Season complete.  The Padres were really a strange case this year.  With high expectations, they seemed to look a lot like how they did en-route to a state D-2AA title last year (losing early, then turning it on afterward).  However, they suffered 3 significant blowouts to St. Francis and Valley Christian.  From what I can guess, it was physical defenses that gave them the most trouble, which is why I've dropped them below Menlo-Atherton.  I look for the Padres to take on another challenging schedule next year.

6.  Aptos (D-Open III):  Mariners earned what might have been the biggest surprise in all of NorCal last week, blasting league rival, Palma, 49-6.  It was said that it was the worst playoff defeat for the Chieftains in 35 years.  I don't remember seeing any public school doing that to them, rivaling the blowout that caused them to end the series with De La Salle in the mid-2000s.  Aptos is coached by Randy Blankenship, who is a legend amongst NorCal coaches.  Although they are only favored by 10 points by Calpreps (the last two games were suggested to be 1-point affairs, both ending in huge wins), many would be surprised if this one against Sacred Heart Prep remains within 3 or 4 TDs.  You can see them play this week here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifccs/gamd0fa4a504a.

 

Central Section

The CS was the only "NorCal" section that completed its playoffs this week.  The NorCal is in quotes because two of the champions from this section will be competing as SoCal teams, however, all of the advancing teams listed here will be in the NorCal regional games.  There were no surprises, as all of the favored teams won.

1.  Central (D-I):  Grizzlies hold off a game Liberty squad, 58-34.  The Patriots actually led at the half before Central got some stops and pulled away.  Now, Liberty was a good team and they were playing very well in the playoffs, but they're not Folsom, the Grizzlie's possible NorCal regional opponent.  Giving up 34 points in back-to-back weeks should really give Central fans some concern.  They have a lot of athletes and like to spread you out to take advantage of them, but you need to get stops on the other side of the ball.  If they do get matched up with the Bulldogs, I can actually see something like a 75-48 track meet.  Central lost in last year's NorCal D-1A regional to Folsom, 54-35, and both teams look more explosive this year.

2.  Liberty (D-I):  Season complete.  Patriots gave all they could in a 58-34 defeat to Central.  They were actually up by 9 at one point, but the Grizzlie's offense just became too much.  Still, getting revenge on Buchanan in the semifinals was a solid accomplishment.  This is a program that has been taking on a number of solid SoCal teams (all losses) in the last few years (this year, Mission Viejo), so we should be hearing from them again in 2019.

3.  Buchanan (D-I):  Season complete.  Bears lost to Liberty in the CS D-I semifinals, 24-23.  Three losses this year were against three very good teams, De La Salle, Central, and Liberty.  I have not heard yet if the De La Salle game was part of a home-and-home series.

4.  Bakersfield (D-I):  Season complete.  Drillers lost to Central in the CS D-I semifinals, 46-34.  Considered moving San Joaquin Memorial up to this spot, but could the Panthers have played Liberty to a 7-0 game?  Could they have scored 34 on Central?  I doubt it.

5.  San Joaquin Memorial (D-III):  Panthers complete a perfect Central Section season with a 48-7 victory over Bakersfield Christian.  It will be interesting to see if the CS places SJM in D-I next year with this title win.  Despite being a small private school, it's actually larger than Santa Maria St. Joseph's, which did compete in D-I in 2018 (incorrectly, in my opinion).  I think these two schools should probably switch for 2019, or at least both be placed in D-II.  With the win, the Panthers will be placed in a NorCal regional game, possibly in either D-3AA or D-3A, in my opinion.

6.  Clovis (D-I):  Season complete.  Despite the win in CS D-II for Tulare Union, a similar question could be asked as to whether the Tribe would still be undefeated with the Cougar's schedule.  My answer is probably not.

7.  Tulare Union (D-II):  Tribe takes care of business against Righetti in the CS D-II finals, 45-30.  Although the Warriors made some noise in the game, they never really threatened to take it over.  This is the second consecutive CS D-II title for Tulare Union.  I'm unsure whether the CS has a competitive equity rule that might force them into D-I.  I think by adding both St. Joseph's and San Joaquin Memorial to the D-II mix, it would give them a lot more competition than what is currently present.  I'm unsure a move to D-I is wholly appropriate, but I would understand.  The last time the Tribe took on a D-I level opponent, they gave up a whopping 76 points to San Mateo Serra in last year's NorCal D-2AA regional game.  Cal-Hi Sports seems to be hoping that they take on CS-mate, SJM in a NorCal regional, but it seems like the CIF tends to try to avoid intrasectional games when they can.  I can see the Tribe in D-3AA or D-3A in two weeks.

 

Overall NorCal Top 10

1.  De La Salle

2.  Folsom

3.  Liberty (Brentwood)

4.  Central

5.  St. Francis

6.  Monterey Trail

7.  Liberty (Bakersfield)

8.  Valley Christian

9.  Buchanan

10.  Wilcox

 

[AztecPadre]

Aptos was always that much better than Palma.  Aptos played a horrible game when they faced them last time.  They had way too many mistakes and still was able to eek out a win. Aptos I would say is closer to a Salinas when they bring their A game or a Carmel.  DLS will run roughshed over Liberty.  The LOS will be dominated by DLS on both sides.  Will remind me of the DLS vs Folsom games in 2012-2013.  

[Cal 14]

10 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

Aptos was always that much better than Palma.  Aptos played a horrible game when they faced them last time.  They had way too many mistakes and still was able to eek out a win. Aptos I would say is closer to a Salinas when they bring their A game or a Carmel.  DLS will run roughshed over Liberty.  The LOS will be dominated by DLS on both sides.  Will remind me of the DLS vs Folsom games in 2012-2013.  

Aptos's D has stepped way the hell up in the playoffs.  In the final two games of the regular season, both Palma and Salinas were able to move the ball on them through the air.  Palma couldn't really stop the Mariner running game in either contest.

Salinas moved the ball right down Wilcox's throat to open their game with a balanced attack, but then strangely abandoned the running game for the next 2-3 drives.  When they finally returned to it, they were already down to the Chargers.  Watch out for the Cowboys next year, though.

Much like how DLS sort of starts each season a little slow, I want to see how 3 weeks off impacts them.  Liberty started off slow, but got things moving in the second half.  That should help them this week.  If they can keep it close in the first half, they'll have confidence in the second.  If DLS comes out firing, it will be lights out relatively quickly.

You still thinking of coming down for the games?  I may or may not be able to see the DLS-MD game because I might have my daughter that night, but I still plan on heading to Cerritos the following weekend.

[AztecPadre]

16 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Aptos's D has stepped way the hell up in the playoffs.  In the final two games of the regular season, both Palma and Salinas were able to move the ball on them through the air.  Palma couldn't really stop the Mariner running game in either contest.

Salinas moved the ball right down Wilcox's throat to open their game with a balanced attack, but then strangely abandoned the running game for the next 2-3 drives.  When they finally returned to it, they were already down to the Chargers.  Watch out for the Cowboys next year, though.

Much like how DLS sort of starts each season a little slow, I want to see how 3 weeks off impacts them.  Liberty started off slow, but got things moving in the second half.  That should help them this week.  If they can keep it close in the first half, they'll have confidence in the second.  If DLS comes out firing, it will be lights out relatively quickly.

You still thinking of coming down for the games?  I may or may not be able to see the DLS-MD game because I might have my daughter that night, but I still plan on heading to Cerritos the following weekend.

With all the goings on of the moving of games up here, I am not sure.  I might have to be here that weekend, but I would say its 60-40 in favor of me going.  Whats the nicest hotel to stay at near El Cerrito College?

[Cal 14]

14 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

With all the goings on of the moving of games up here, I am not sure.  I might have to be here that weekend, but I would say its 60-40 in favor of me going.  Whats the nicest hotel to stay at near El Cerrito College?

Well, if you want to stay close to the site, there's a Sheraton in Cerritos and a Double-Tree in Norwalk.  But, if you really want to stay somewhere nice, you probably want to head down to the waterfront in Long Beach or Huntington Beach.  If you stay in HB, I can come get you for the games.  I live about 4 miles from the pier.

[AztecPadre]

1 minute ago, Cal 14 said:

Well, if you want to stay close to the site, there's a Sheraton in Cerritos and a Double-Tree in Norwalk.  But, if you really want to stay somewhere nice, you probably want to head down to the waterfront in Long Beach or Huntington Beach.  If you stay in HB, I can come get you for the games.  I live about 4 miles from the pier.

I love HB!!!  How far is HB from the stadium?

[Cal 14]

3 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

I love HB!!!  How far is HB from the stadium?

I live about 22 miles away from the stadium.  May take around 30-40 minutes or so to get there from downtown HB (mostly because Beach Blvd is such a long drive to I-405).  I've taken that Friday off, so the whole day is fair game.  I've been going to games with @Gospeeder, too, so maybe he'd like to join us.

[ThunderRam]

1 hour ago, Cal 14 said:

9.  Placer (D-III):  Hillmen get a tremendous scare on a muddy field against River Valley, but win 7-6.  Muddy field or not, this game should not have been this close.  The Falcons scored what appeared to be the game-tying TD with just under 5 minutes to play, but a bad snap on the PAT could not be fielded by the holder and Placer was able to hold onto the win.  Game for the SJS D-III title against Capital Christian still should be very competitive.

I was also surprised at this score. But another factor I believe led to the close, low scoring game is that both coaching staffs understand how to defend the wing-t better than most. Legendary NU coach Dave Humphers is from the Randy Blankenship coaching tree and IIRC Joey Montoya has connection to Humphers. And all are connected to Don Brown in some way, I believe. 

Add the coaching to the mud soaked field and it makes some sense why the game turned out as it did.

Funny, but we’ve become so accustomed to field turf and good surface conditions that we often forget that many playoff games and championships of the past were heavily influenced by poor conditions. Luckily we don’t see much of that anymore.

[Sammyswordsman]

19 minutes ago, ThunderRam said:

Funny, but we’ve become so accustomed to field turf and good surface conditions that we often forget that many playoff games and championships of the past were heavily influenced by poor conditions. Luckily we don’t see much of that anymore.

Thank you for acknowledging this.

- signed, 2010 Servite and Serra

 

[BraceFace69]

2 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

With the SoCal teams determined for the regional CIF playoffs, the NorCal teams have mostly entered the finals stage.  Not many major surprises amongst the ranked teams, but there is some movement in the rankings this week.

 

Sac-Joaquin Section

One semifinal game goes down to the wire and another is much closer than anticipated.  At the end, the teams in the finals are generally what people expected.

1.  Folsom (D-I):  Bulldogs have yet to be challenged in the playoffs and may still not be against Monterey Trail.  Beating St. Mary's 52-7 was expected.  Folsom will, however, be watching the result of the De La Salle-Liberty game closely.  You can watch the SJS D-I title game here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifsjs/gam228c28035d.

2.  Monterey Trail (D-I):  Mustangs were tied at the half with Oak Ridge, but they bolted out to the lead with some long runs after that, winning 48-20.  Next up is Folsom.  While Monterey Trail has some athletes and is capable of big plays, it does not appear that they'll be able to keep up with the Bulldogs.

3.  Capital Christian (D-III):  Cougars don't get the same scare from Antelope that they had in the regular season, winning 31-12.  They'll have to perfect their wing-t defense in order to win the SJS D-III title against Placer, who may feel they have something to prove after last week's result.  That game will be online as well:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifsjs/gamd5fb8523d7.

4.  Central Catholic (D-II):  If you were to ask me a couple of weeks ago about a Del Oro-Central Catholic match-up, I would have favored the Golden Eagles in a tight game.  If the season were to be continuing for another month and this game was going to be played, I might say the same thing.  However, when the Raiders meet Del Oro this week for the SJS D-II crown, it will have been a touch over 3 weeks since the Eagles played a game.  I can't imagine they're going to be in much condition to take this game.  Last week, Central Catholic beat Inderkum 31-30 after the Tigers elected to go for 2 late in the 4th quarter and didn't get it.  This week's game can be seen here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifsjs/gamb86eeffd24.

5.  Inderkum (D-II):  Season complete.  Tigers fall to Central Catholic on a failed 2-point conversion attempt, 31-30.  The idea to go for 2 seemed a little strange.  They took a 12-point lead into the half before the Raiders burst out of the break with a long TD run.  Central Catholic scored 19 straight points to stake a 7-point lead, however the Tigers seemed to have take back some of the momentum in the 4th.  Prior to scoring a TD with about a minute and a half to go, they had driven down to the red zone before throwing an interception in the end zone.  Still, on the ill-fated 2-point conversion attempt, the pass into the end zone appeared to go off the shoulder of the intended receiver and ricocheted out of bounds.  I decided to keep Inderkum above Del Oro because I don't believe the Eagles will be able to play that quite of a close game against the Raiders.

6.  Del Oro (D-II):  After the forfeit win over Jesuit, the Golden Eagles finally get to take the field against second-seeded Central Catholic.  They'll have to shake off a tremendous amount of rust in order to win this game.  The Raiders come in with a lot of momentum, utilizing a long run that helped create a huge 3rd quarter where they took the lead over Inderkum.  As previously stated, I would have made the order slightly different a couple of weeks ago.

7.  Jesuit (D-II):  Season complete.  No downward movement, as neither Oak Ridge nor Placer, did anything that would warrant moving past the Marauders.

8.  Oak Ridge (D-I):  Season complete.  Although the Trojans were able to hang close with Monterey Trail for a half, they were unable to make the adjustment at the break and ended up losing by a wide margin, 48-20.  They were generally able to prevent steady, long drives, but were victimized by the big play ability of the Mustangs.

9.  Placer (D-III):  Hillmen get a tremendous scare on a muddy field against River Valley, but win 7-6.  Muddy field or not, this game should not have been this close.  The Falcons scored what appeared to be the game-tying TD with just under 5 minutes to play, but a bad snap on the PAT could not be fielded by the holder and Placer was able to hold onto the win.  Game for the SJS D-III title against Capital Christian still should be very competitive.

 

North Coast Section

No major surprises, just one margin of victory that was bigger than expected.  Other than in the Open Division, teams will be playing their semifinals this week before having to make difficult decisions between chances of a state or section title.  It will be an interesting dynamic to see which teams try to opt for one or the other.  Once again, teams that opt for a chance at a state title will likely have a coin flip decide which finalist advances.

1.  De La Salle (D-Open):  Spartans' long break is finally over, as they will face Liberty not only for the NCS Open title, but probably the bid into the CIF State Open Division championship next week in Cerritos (Spartans are sure to advance to the Open with a win, Liberty is likely with a win).  Although DLS is the prohibitive favorite, they haven't played a game in over 3 weeks.  If they come out rusty and/or turn the ball over, Liberty is a team that could take advantage of that.  If they come out with the normal level of Spartan execution, then it will likely be a 3-4 TD win.  Look for this game here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifncs/gam2be18f7015.

2.  Liberty (D-Open):  Many might look at the score against Clayton Valley Charter and think "Wow, they really blew them out."  However, the big margin of victory may have had more to do with an Ugly Eagle collapse as anything else.  CVC led for most of the first half, 6-0, and the game was still within one score at the end of the 3rd, 14-6 (Liberty).  On the first play of the 4th, the Lions broke it open with a long TD pass.  Maybe it was just rust, as neither team had played for nearly a month due to the fires.  Having played this game should give them a very slight advantage in that category over DLS and they're going to need every advantage they can get in order to garner the upset.  Even with a loss, the Lions are guaranteed a spot in a NorCal regional.  If the game is close, I can see them possibly in D-1AA against (likely) Folsom.  If not, then it's probably D-1A, where they could face a number of different opponents.

3.  Pittsburg (D-Open):  Season complete.  As promised, the Pirates move past Clayton Valley Charter based on the much larger loss that the Ugly Eagles suffered against Liberty.

4.  Clayton Valley Charter (D-Open):  Season complete.  Ugly Eagles end up with a semi-ugly loss to Liberty in the NCS semifinals.  CVC was very competitive in this game up until the 4th quarter.  Once the Lions took the lead, the run-heavy offense that the Eagles utilize just couldn't generate the type of production to keep up.  Also, much like how we see blowouts in college championship games, I got the sense that the large margin was partially due to CVC just not feeling like they had anything left for which to play as the Liberty continued to hit them with big play after big play.  Still, in a head-to-head game against Cardinal Newman, I would still take CVC.

5.  Cardinal Newman (D-III):  After nearly a month off, the Cardinals take care of business against Encinal, 56-21.  This week, they might get a little more resistance from El Cerrito, but probably not much more.  After that, they could get one of two potential undefeated opponents in the NCS D-III title game... or not.  I think people will be talking/complaining about this coin flip situation for many years.  There does not appear to be any streaming for this week's Cardinal game.

6.  Rancho Cotate (D-II):  The three-week gap didn't stop the Cougars from clobbering American Canyon, 42-7.  Next up is Marin Catholic, who scored an upset of Granada last week, 14-7.  Although Calpreps lists this game as a strong favorite for Rancho Cotate, a other team that could reach the finals, Campolindo, beat the Wildcats 35-21 to open the season.  Campo gets Bishop O'Dowd this week in the other semifinal.  This game will be on here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/rancho-cotate-high-school-rohnert-park-ca/gam1a34284f48.

7.  Eureka (D-III):  Having had their quarterfinal victory take place on the 9th, the Loggers have patiently been awaiting their semifinal opponent.  It will be a battle of unbeatens as Eureka takes on Las Lomas this week.  The Loggers are a mild favorite, but this is a program I can see possibly opt for a section title, rather than state.  I don't believe they've won one since the merger of the East Bay teams with those from the Redwood Empire.  No streaming for this week's game is listed on NFHS Network.

 

Central Coast Section

Unlike many of the games in other NorCal sections, the CCS saw a handful of very competitive games amongst its ranked teams... still, one unexpected blowout really caught people's attention.  It appears that all of this week's finals game should be very interesting.

1.  St. Francis (D-Open II):  The Lancers bounced Serra out of the playoffs with another big win, 38-8.  This sets up a rematch for the CCS D-Open II title against Valley Christian that ended at 7-3 in the regular season.  Since that game, the junior QB has become more comfortable and both offenses have been playing at a higher level.  As one of the highest playoff point earners in the CCS, St. Francis has now reserved a placement into the NorCal regionals.  A win probably places them in D-1A, while a loss might drop them all the way to D-2A.  You can see this game here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifccs/gamd294d61dd9.

2.  Valley Christian (D-Open II):  Warriors soundly beat league rival, Mitty, 42-14.  Next up will likely be a slug-fest against St. Francis, as they are both very physical, ground-oriented teams.  With insufficient upsets taking place in other divisions, the Valley Christian will likely need to win this game to advance to a NorCal regional game.  If they do win, they will probably be placed in either D-1A or D-2AA, where they competed in 2016, falling to San Diego Madison at Sacramento State, 21-17.

3.  Wilcox (D-Open I):  Chargers overcame a solid challenge from the defending champs, Salinas, 45-27.  Although the Cowboys struck first, Wilcox used their punishing veer offense to take control the line of scrimmage for the win.  They will now take on Menlo-Atherton and their tremendous defense for the CCS D-Open I title, but they have already punched their ticket for a NorCal regional game.  With a win, I believe they're looking at anywhere from D-1A (if Valley Christian also wins) to D-3A with loss.  This week's game can be seen here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifccs/gam906ae2122b.

4.  Menlo-Atherton (D-Open I):  Bears get all they can handle against Palo Alto before prevailing 17-7.  Although the defense has been extremely strong all season, their offense has taken some time to get going sometimes.  There have also been issues with penalties.  Still, they've run off 8 straight wins since falling to the #1 team in Colorado, Valor Christian, including a 30-0 drubbing of CCS D-Open III finalist, Sacred Heart Prep.  Like a couple of teams above them, Menlo-Atherton has also already qualified to advance to a NorCal regional game.  I can see them as high as D-2A with a win or D-3A with a loss.

5.  Serra (D-Open II):  Season complete.  The Padres were really a strange case this year.  With high expectations, they seemed to look a lot like how they did en-route to a state D-2AA title last year (losing early, then turning it on afterward).  However, they suffered 3 significant blowouts to St. Francis and Valley Christian.  From what I can guess, it was physical defenses that gave them the most trouble, which is why I've dropped them below Menlo-Atherton.  I look for the Padres to take on another challenging schedule next year.

6.  Aptos (D-Open III):  Mariners earned what might have been the biggest surprise in all of NorCal last week, blasting league rival, Palma, 49-6.  It was said that it was the worst playoff defeat for the Chieftains in 35 years.  I don't remember seeing any public school doing that to them, rivaling the blowout that caused them to end the series with De La Salle in the mid-2000s.  Aptos is coached by Randy Blankenship, who is a legend amongst NorCal coaches.  Although they are only favored by 10 points by Calpreps (the last two games were suggested to be 1-point affairs, both ending in huge wins), many would be surprised if this one against Sacred Heart Prep remains within 3 or 4 TDs.  You can see them play this week here:  https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/cifccs/gamd0fa4a504a.

 

Central Section

The CS was the only "NorCal" section that completed its playoffs this week.  The NorCal is in quotes because two of the champions from this section will be competing as SoCal teams, however, all of the advancing teams listed here will be in the NorCal regional games.  There were no surprises, as all of the favored teams won.

1.  Central (D-I):  Grizzlies hold off a game Liberty squad, 58-34.  The Patriots actually led at the half before Central got some stops and pulled away.  Now, Liberty was a good team and they were playing very well in the playoffs, but they're not Folsom, the Grizzlie's possible NorCal regional opponent.  Giving up 34 points in back-to-back weeks should really give Central fans some concern.  They have a lot of athletes and like to spread you out to take advantage of them, but you need to get stops on the other side of the ball.  If they do get matched up with the Bulldogs, I can actually see something like a 75-48 track meet.  Central lost in last year's NorCal D-1A regional to Folsom, 54-35, and both teams look more explosive this year.

2.  Liberty (D-I):  Season complete.  Patriots gave all they could in a 58-34 defeat to Central.  They were actually up by 9 at one point, but the Grizzlie's offense just became too much.  Still, getting revenge on Buchanan in the semifinals was a solid accomplishment.  This is a program that has been taking on a number of solid SoCal teams (all losses) in the last few years (this year, Mission Viejo), so we should be hearing from them again in 2019.

3.  Buchanan (D-I):  Season complete.  Bears lost to Liberty in the CS D-I semifinals, 24-23.  Three losses this year were against three very good teams, De La Salle, Central, and Liberty.  I have not heard yet if the De La Salle game was part of a home-and-home series.

4.  Bakersfield (D-I):  Season complete.  Drillers lost to Central in the CS D-I semifinals, 46-34.  Considered moving San Joaquin Memorial up to this spot, but could the Panthers have played Liberty to a 7-0 game?  Could they have scored 34 on Central?  I doubt it.

5.  San Joaquin Memorial (D-III):  Panthers complete a perfect Central Section season with a 48-7 victory over Bakersfield Christian.  It will be interesting to see if the CS places SJM in D-I next year with this title win.  Despite being a small private school, it's actually larger than Santa Maria St. Joseph's, which did compete in D-I in 2018 (incorrectly, in my opinion).  I think these two schools should probably switch for 2019, or at least both be placed in D-II.  With the win, the Panthers will be placed in a NorCal regional game, possibly in either D-3AA or D-3A, in my opinion.

6.  Clovis (D-I):  Season complete.  Despite the win in CS D-II for Tulare Union, a similar question could be asked as to whether the Tribe would still be undefeated with the Cougar's schedule.  My answer is probably not.

7.  Tulare Union (D-II):  Tribe takes care of business against Righetti in the CS D-II finals, 45-30.  Although the Warriors made some noise in the game, they never really threatened to take it over.  This is the second consecutive CS D-II title for Tulare Union.  I'm unsure whether the CS has a competitive equity rule that might force them into D-I.  I think by adding both St. Joseph's and San Joaquin Memorial to the D-II mix, it would give them a lot more competition than what is currently present.  I'm unsure a move to D-I is wholly appropriate, but I would understand.  The last time the Tribe took on a D-I level opponent, they gave up a whopping 76 points to San Mateo Serra in last year's NorCal D-2AA regional game.  Cal-Hi Sports seems to be hoping that they take on CS-mate, SJM in a NorCal regional, but it seems like the CIF tends to try to avoid intrasectional games when they can.  I can see the Tribe in D-3AA or D-3A in two weeks.

 

Overall NorCal Top 10

1.  De La Salle

2.  Folsom

3.  Liberty (Brentwood)

4.  Central

5.  St. Francis

6.  Monterey Trail

7.  Liberty (Bakersfield)

8.  Valley Christian

9.  Buchanan

10.  Wilcox

 

Enough with the CV love. They got manhandeled. That offense will NEVER work against good teams. 

[Cal 14]

16 minutes ago, BraceFace69 said:

Enough with the CV love. They got manhandeled. That offense will NEVER work against good teams. 

I dropped them out of the overall top 10.  What more do you want?

[PrepGridiron]

Thanks, @Cal 14 

The Del Oro/Central Catholic and Placer/Capital Christian games should be very interesting/competitive games. 

[NorCalRuss]

2 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Thank you for acknowledging this.

- signed, 2010 Servite and Serra

 

Don’t you have a different thread you should post this in? Excuse thread or something like that?

[Cal 14]

22 hours ago, ThunderRam said:

I was also surprised at this score. But another factor I believe led to the close, low scoring game is that both coaching staffs understand how to defend the wing-t better than most. Legendary NU coach Dave Humphers is from the Randy Blankenship coaching tree and IIRC Joey Montoya has connection to Humphers. And all are connected to Don Brown in some way, I believe.

Ok... then, let me ask you this.  Do you think that the rest of the WCAL just figure out how to stop Bellarmine's double-wing offense these last two years after years of success from it?  Or have the Bells just not had as many good players over the last two years?

Given St. Francis's success this year, have teams just forgotten how to stop the I-formation because everyone else is running the spread?

[ThunderRam]

@Cal 14

Regarding Bellarmine, are the opposing head coaches and their staffs in the WCAL all from a double wing coaching tree and among the best at coaching the offense for 30+ years? If so, then I’d say it factors in — along with playing on a mud soaked field each and every game.

River Valley having Dave Humphers as a Co-HC the past 2 seasons and playing Placer with those field conditions certainly put them in a unique position. And considering Joey Montoya’s long and successful history running the same offense on the other side of the field, I can see why the game turned out the way it did.

That’s all I’m saying.

 

[THEOC89]

Awesome Job @Cal 14!... Your Nor Cal Football Analysis is Terrific!.... Your weekly posts are one of the Best Parts of following this board!...  

[THEOC89]

On 11/27/2018 at 4:38 PM, PrepGridiron said:

Thanks, @Cal 14 

The Del Oro/Central Catholic and Placer/Capital Christian games should be very interesting/competitive games. 

Defiantly!..... To that point, Didn't the long time Del Oro Coach Head Coach go to Capital Christian in the last couple of years?... I want to say his name is Taylor?

[Cal 14]

5 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

Defiantly!..... To that point, Didn't the long time Del Oro Coach Head Coach go to Capital Christian in the last couple of years?... I want to say his name is Taylor?

Yes, that is correct.

[Cal 14]

11 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

Awesome Job @Cal 14!... Your Nor Cal Football Analysis is Terrific!.... Your weekly posts are one of the Best Parts of following this board!...  

Thanks, man.  I appreciate it.

[THEOC89]

Just now, Cal 14 said:

Yes, that is correct.

Thanks! I Thought so.... He is a great coach! I met him briefly years ago at the Honor Bowl games in Oceanside when Del Oro played there, I thought he was a Fan and I was asking him about Del Oro!....  ... He was really cool!... Looks like he has something going at Capital Christian!...

[ThunderRam]

7 hours ago, THEOC89 said:

Awesome Job @Cal 14!... Your Nor Cal Football Analysis is Terrific!.... Your weekly posts are one of the Best Parts of following this board!...  

Totally agree. And I'm glad I convinced him to do more work by including the CS. 😋

Cal14 has always been one of my favorite posters going back to the NorCal and SoCal boards a decade ago. It's always fun sharing opinions with him. Dude knows his stuff. And sees a lot of different teams play.

[ThunderRam]

7 hours ago, THEOC89 said:

Defiantly!..... To that point, Didn't the long time Del Oro Coach Head Coach go to Capital Christian in the last couple of years?... I want to say his name is Taylor?

I know Cal already affirmed, but I'll expand a bit.

After being wooed by Capital Christian for several years, he finally left Del Oro for CC last year. This is only year 2 for him and he's already got the Cougars in the D3 Section Final (they've largely and historically been a D5/D6 program). So they're growing up fast. If he stays there long term, there's a fair chance they develop into a D1/D2 area power. Expect to hear more about them the next few seasons.

One thing I've always liked and admired about CT is that he has experience as an offensive and defensive coordinator and excelled at both. He ran Oak Ridge's offense for 4 years in the late 90's (they won a section title in 1998) then ran Rocklin's defense for 3 years as the pseudo Co-Head coach. Word at the time was Rocklin lost him to Del Oro in 2002 because they wouldn't officially name him Co-HC. What a mistake that was!

[Cal 14]

8 hours ago, ThunderRam said:

I know Cal already affirmed, but I'll expand a bit.

After being wooed by Capital Christian for several years, he finally left Del Oro for CC last year. This is only year 2 for him and he's already got the Cougars in the D3 Section Final (they've largely and historically been a D5/D6 program). So they're growing up fast. If he stays there long term, there's a fair chance they develop into a D1/D2 area power. Expect to hear more about them the next few seasons.

One thing I've always liked and admired about CT is that he has experience as an offensive and defensive coordinator and excelled at both. He ran Oak Ridge's offense for 4 years in the late 90's (they won a section title in 1998) then ran Rocklin's defense for 3 years as the pseudo Co-Head coach. Word at the time was Rocklin lost him to Del Oro in 2002 because they wouldn't officially name him Co-HC. What a mistake that was!

People in SoCal always go on about how DLS's success is mostly attributed to there not being another Catholic school in the area with which to compete for players.  I've always answered that by pointing that that there is only one large Catholic school in both the Sacramento and Fresno areas, yet neither of those are dominant in any way.

Well... perhaps Capital Christian may fill that void.  I know that Jesuit has been trying to build its program, but they've yet to show they've made a huge amount of progress against the section's elite (this year might have changed that without their blunder).  If Capital Christian does continue to rise under Taylor's leadership, it would actually further the narrative that it was coaching that built the Spartan program.

Do you happen to know how old Casey is?

[Cal 14]

9 hours ago, ThunderRam said:

Totally agree. And I'm glad I convinced him to do more work by including the CS. 😋

Cal14 has always been one of my favorite posters going back to the NorCal and SoCal boards a decade ago. It's always fun sharing opinions with him. Dude knows his stuff. And sees a lot of different teams play.

Thanks, Thunder.  The respect is mutual.

[ThunderRam]

3 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

 I know that Jesuit has been trying to build its program, but they've yet to show they've made a huge amount of progress against the section's elite (this year might have changed that without their blunder).

 

Jesuit has been good for a long time, even had some dominant teams. They've got large and loyal alumni/booster support. They sometimes get upwards of 15K to attend the Holy Bowl.

IMO, the issues holding them back have been facilities and lack of stadium lights. The school recently completed a 7M renovation to the on-campus stadium, so that's all good now but they still don't have lighting due to resistance from the local neighborhood.

Let's face it, the top kids in the area don't want to play games on Saturday's at 1pm. If that issue ever gets resolved (they experimented with portable lights this season) then I think Jesuit can finally become what St. Mary's-Stockton is, if not more.  But if Capital beats them there first.....

3 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

Do you happen to know how old Casey is?

He graduated in 1988, so I'd assume around 48.