15yds4gibberish Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 It's all down the memory hole now but here's the reporting on the sequence of flight closures that I can find about January 31, 2020. 1) Per Forbes, Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on January 31 immediately after a couple from China tested positive. This was before the US. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/12/italy-banned-flights-from-china-before-americait-didnt-work/#605a34f1481b "Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on 31 January, immediately after a Chinese couple in Rome tested positive for the virus. The U.S. began to restrict flights from China four days later. But while Italy enacted a full ban, the U.S. policy was only a restriction, with wide exemptions." 2) Per USA Today, Delta, American, and United all announced they are cancelling flights from mainland China prior to IMPOTUS. https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-flight-ban-delta-cuts-all-flights-white-house/4620989002/ " White House officials said Tuesday they were considering a China travel ban but said then they had not contacted the airlines. Friday's decision by all three domestic carriers to suspend their service all but rendered White House action moot, though the administration did declare the coronavirus to be a public health emergency in the United States late Friday." 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 13 hours ago, Blueliner said: Just be thankful that Trump enacted a travel ban so swiftly and decisively. Sadly, Italy didn't. 🤡 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 @Blueliner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Impressive Context Bump.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 On 2/27/2020 at 11:06 AM, Blueliner said: With respect and condolences to people that were affected or killed by this ugly cold virus worldwide, the actual numbers are not even remotely close to a pandemic or even an epidemic Less than two weeks later, the WHO declared it a pandemic. @Blueliner = 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I could start a whole new thread based just on @Bormio's dumbass posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
15yds4gibberish Posted March 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Sorry I missed all the fun in the other thread last night, but I'm going to put this here so we can keep track of it more easily. We now have more data from countries that did and didn't implement travel bans. https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracking-coronavirus-countries-and-without-travel-bans "Their travel restrictions have neither stopped the spread of this novel coronavirus nor prevented it from becoming a pandemic. Early research and scenario analysis, however, suggest the combination of the travel restrictions within China and international travel restrictions against China may have delayed the spread of COVID-19, but more so in nations that use that time to reduce community spread of the virus." Here is a list of countries, when and how they implemented travel bans. https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel-restrictions-china-due-covid-19 My hot take is about the same as awhile ago. The US wasn't really ahead in the travel ban, and without testing, we squandered our opportunity for containment. (this is not a fact, just a current working theory, I wonder if we will find someone was trying to corner the market in testing, looking at you Jared's brother) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, 15yds4gibberish said: My hot take is about the same as awhile ago. The US wasn't really ahead in the travel ban, and without testing, we squandered our opportunity for containment. That is the crux of the problem, together with irresponsible statements by our leadership trivializing the risk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, 15yds4gibberish said: Sorry I missed all the fun in the other thread last night, but I'm going to put this here so we can keep track of it more easily. We now have more data from countries that did and didn't implement travel bans. https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracking-coronavirus-countries-and-without-travel-bans "Their travel restrictions have neither stopped the spread of this novel coronavirus nor prevented it from becoming a pandemic. Early research and scenario analysis, however, suggest the combination of the travel restrictions within China and international travel restrictions against China may have delayed the spread of COVID-19, but more so in nations that use that time to reduce community spread of the virus." Here is a list of countries, when and how they implemented travel bans. https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel-restrictions-china-due-covid-19 My hot take is about the same as awhile ago. The US wasn't really ahead in the travel ban, and without testing, we squandered our opportunity for containment. (this is not a fact, just a current working theory, I wonder if we will find someone was trying to corner the market in testing, looking at you Jared's brother) Good work! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 I love stats and analysis. Curious as to the effect/correlation of things like frequency of travel by Chinese nationals (ex. Italy = very high), population, the age demographics (again, place like Italy at very high risk) etc... Surely analysis to come down the road... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, concha said: I love stats and analysis. Curious as to the effect/correlation of things like frequency of travel by Chinese nationals (ex. Italy = very high), population, the age demographics (again, place like Italy at very high risk) etc... Surely analysis to come down the road... Since you’re a fan of the ban, how about you provide some stats and analysis of its defectiveness? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, Horsefly said: Since you’re a fan of the ban, how about you provide some stats and analysis of its defectiveness? Doubt I have access to the data pro or con. At this point it's the opinion of the likes of Dr Fauci and common sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Just now, concha said: Doubt I have access to the data pro or con. At this point it's the opinion of the likes of Dr Fauci and common sense. Aaah ok, well surely you can dig up something on past travel bans with other pandemics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Just now, Horsefly said: Aaah ok, well surely you can dig up something on past travel bans with other pandemics. Not sure if I can surely do that or not. In the end. to be really sure I imagine you'd have to have exactly the same circumstances for two populations/locations with the exception of travel bans. Let me know if you can think up examples. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, concha said: Not sure if I can surely do that or not. In the end. to be really sure I imagine you'd have to have exactly the same circumstances for two populations/locations with the exception of travel bans. Let me know if you can think up examples. 👍 Nah, they don’t need to be exact. You applauded the efforts of instituting a travel ban and so there should be stats you have that show their effectiveness in containing viruses. That’s the purpose. Past practices and lessons learned are always used as indicators in implementing current procedures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Horsefly said: Nah, they don’t need to be exact. You applauded the efforts of instituting a travel ban and so there should be stats you have that show their effectiveness in containing viruses. That’s the purpose. Past practices and lessons learned are always used as indicators in implementing current procedures. There should? OK. It kinda seems like you don't like the questions I asked TBH. ✌️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Just now, concha said: There should? OK. It kinda seems like you don't like the questions I asked TBH. ✌️ you asks questions for others to defend their position, but are unable to do the same for your position thats what I find more interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Horsefly said: you asks questions for others to defend their position, but are unable to do the same for your position thats what I find more interesting. I didn't ask anyone to defend anything. That your mind feels the need to say I did is interesting. I simply suggested examples where other factors could/might also be very influential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, concha said: I didn't ask anyone to defend anything. That your mind feels the need to say I did is interesting. I simply suggested examples where other factors could/might also be very influential. Ok conch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Just now, Horsefly said: Ok conch. 👍 Simple truth. When shitloads of data is available of the world's medical/statistical boffins dig in, the things I mentioned could be good or bad or entirely neutral influences. I do think the ban was worth doing. In fact, there were those who didn't criticize it at the time as ineffective, but as racist and even too early. Now you have the hindsight crowd jumping in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, concha said: 👍 Simple truth. When shitloads of data is available of the world's medical/statistical boffins dig in, the things I mentioned could be good or bad or entirely neutral influences. I do think the ban was worth doing. In fact, there were those who didn't criticize it at the time as ineffective, but as racist and even too early. Now you have the hindsight crowd jumping in. That’s not true, there are articles dating back to Jan that criticized the effectiveness of travel bans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Horsefly said: That’s not true, there are articles dating back to Jan that criticized the effectiveness of travel bans. "There were those". Opinions on both sides. Too me, it was common sense. If you have an infestation, prevent more from coming in while you treat what's already there. For the Never Trump and Orange Man Bad crowd, you'd think that Trump and his administration have made zero good decisions at all. Very much a continuation of the Russia collusion hoax and the impeachment bullshit. Never let a crisis go to waste (if Trump is in still in charge). Coverage on the MSM is overwhelmingly negative and those people would almost rather die than report positives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsefly Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: "There were those". Opinions on both sides. Too me, it was common sense. If you have an infestation, prevent more from coming in while you treat what's already there. For the Never Trump and Orange Man Bad crowd, you'd think that Trump and his administration have made zero good decisions at all. Very much a continuation of the Russia collusion hoax and the impeachment bullshit. Never let a crisis go to waste (if Trump is in still in charge). Coverage on the MSM is overwhelmingly negative and those people would almost rather die than report positives. Interesting ... I see both left and right leaning media doing the same thing when the other has a candidate in office as president. I wonder who will blink first and be fairer in their reporting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Hopefully the following is the case as we are heading into Spring. We know the flu virus thrives in the cold and dry (hence "flu season" being during the winter). It could explain much of the travel ban chart above. The countries that tend to have low occurrences are warm weather countries (ex Sri Lanka, Philippines, Malaysia) or in their summer months (ex. S Africa, Australia, Brazil). Quote The University of Maryland mapped severe COVID-19 outbreaks with local weather patterns around the world, from the US to China. They found that the virus thrives in a certain temperature and humidity channel. “The researchers found that all cities experiencing significant outbreaks of COVID-19 have very similar winter climates with an average temperature of 41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit, an average humidity level of 47% to 79% with a narrow east-west distribution along the same 30–50 N” latitude”, said the University of Maryland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Horsefly said: Interesting ... I see both left and right leaning media doing the same thing when the other has a candidate in office as president. I wonder who will blink first and be fairer in their reporting? The left-wing media, at least tv/cable/print is far wider reaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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