DarterBlue Posted June 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2020 Stocks closed mostly lower and not far from day lows on much lower volume. Still, for a day that was more negative than positive, it did not have a "bad feel” at all. At the close, the range was from a loss of 1.77% on the Russell 2000 to a gain of .33% on the NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ composite was the only other index to finish in positive ground. Losing stocks led by margins of 2-1 on the NYSE and 5-3 on the NASDAQ. Big techs were strong and most other areas ranged from blah to weak, with secondary stocks getting the worst of the selling. So, how do I see the day? I actually view it as positive as I think it may mark the beginning of a much needed quiet period. As I have stated before, I think this market needs to calm down if it wants to go higher the rest of the year. It has come very far, very quickly and needs time to digest its gains. The only thing negative I saw in today’s action was the fact that secondary stocks got beat up badly. They have lagged for years now, and it is not clear when they will see their day in the sun again. There used to be a time when secondary issues routinely out-legged the big indices. Perhaps their failure to do so in recent years is telling us something about the nature of the USA’s economy. If this is so, it is not good for the long-term health of the country. On a personal note, I ended up treading water today, after being up decently early on. TTD, SHOP and TEAM performed well, with TTD hitting all-time highs as SHOP approaches the same level. LCII treaded water. On the negative side of the ledger, ZM, MDY and the SPY calls lost good ground. When the smoke had all cleared, I was down $225.74 or .04%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2020 The Mental Aspects of Trading: To last in the trading game, mental control is paramount. If you cannot control your emotions, you will eventually get destroyed. Why? The answer is simple. You cannot be objective about your trade if you are filled with the emotions of: fear, greed, hope or despair. The best mental state is clinical detachment: Distancing yourself from the vehicle you purchased in order to be objective about its prospects, given recent developments, the most critical of which being its recent price action in the market. Very few individuals can achieve this mental state. Does this mean that very few individuals can trade successfully? No it does not. If you are able to be confident yet humble, respecting the fact the market is more powerful than you, that state of mind can also work. Without confidence or detachment you cannot pull the trigger when you need to. You will vacillate and constantly second guess yourself. Being humble means showing the market respect. The market is always stronger than an individual trader. As such the trader's job is to take what the market gives him or her, not force the market to deliver what it does not intend to. My own opinion is that trading is 75% mental in the sense that you must be able to control your emotions. Even if you have the best indicators in the world. Even if you put in a ton of work into researching stocks and spend hours identifying support, resistance and breakout levels on stock charts, without emotional control, you will bust out. Can emotions be controlled at all times? For most of us, the answer is probably not. However, failure to control them most of the time is a clear indicator that this game is not for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 The following video, though I disagree with some of what's in it, may be useful and describes some of the points I have been trying to get across. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 Dear baby Jesus, I’m need to use one of my get out of jail cards for tomorrow, if Luv can go up $1.20 by tomorrow that’d be great thanks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: Dear baby Jesus, I’m need to use one of my get out of jail cards for tomorrow, if Luv can go up $1.20 by tomorrow that’d be great thanks You got 37.50 strikes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: You got 37.50 strikes? $36 call $37 break even its only a couple contracts . It’s only airlines contract that ends tomorrow the rest are August contracts.. debating on pulling it out now take the $200 loss or see how the markets open up and hopefully I can break even atleast in the morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 27 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: $36 call $37 break even its only a couple contracts . It’s only airlines contract that ends tomorrow the rest are August contracts.. debating on pulling it out now take the $200 loss or see how the markets open up and hopefully I can break even atleast in the morning I hardly ever trade in the after market. The bids and asks just are not reliable enough and as often as not, especially in this market, don't reflect tomorrow at all. So, I would close it out tomorrow and take the loss or gain then. Too many things could affect it overnight for me to give you even a remote prediction as to what will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 Stocks closed mixed on flat volume. The range was relatively tight and the gains/losses relatively small. At the close, the range was from a loss of .31% on the MID Cap index to a gain of .33% on the NASDAQ. The averages closed strong in the final half hour to come back from a broadly lower situation. Breadth was negative. On the NYSE, 17 were down to 13 up. On the NASDAQ it was 17-16 down. Not a big deal either way. From the get go techs were strong and the rest of the market so, so. To me, when combined with yesterday, the relative calm could not have come at a better time. So, this is viewed as very constructive. For the first time since this bull leg began, it is possible we may be consolidating the gains. On a personal note, I out-legged the market. I closed up $4,586 or .86%. SHOP was my big winner as it hit all-time highs. TTD and ZM also had solid days. LCII and TEAM essentially treaded water. On the losing end of the ledger, the S&P Calls lost ground, as did the MDY. I have been having a great week going into Friday. If Friday is flat or up, it will be my best week since this campaign began. Finally, in the morning I will be mailing the IRS a fat check for $3,000 representing estimated taxes on the realized gains to date. Oh well, I guess they need it to offset all those stimulus checks they mailed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 18, 2020 Report Share Posted June 18, 2020 1 hour ago, DarterBlue said: I hardly ever trade in the after market. The bids and asks just are not reliable enough and as often as not, especially in this market, don't reflect tomorrow at all. So, I would close it out tomorrow and take the loss or gain then. Too many things could affect it overnight for me to give you even a remote prediction as to what will happen. I had bought the contract because LUV had just released info saying it has cash to survive for the next two years, I assumed that Luv would spike a few percentages because of that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 The End of Consolidation: Aside from Tuesday, the market has mostly consolidated this week. However, despite my desire for more of the same in order to sustain the health of this bull leg, it seems that FOMO has once again taken over as the futures have surged in the last hour and a half. In this game the key is to recognize and trade what is, not what one thinks best. So far this week I have performed well. The hope was that this could continue through summer. If we blast off again today, and especially if the momentum seen in this bull market reasserts itself, it is likely that the run will end sooner rather than later. While I would prefer for this not to happen, for us to continue strong into next year, I must accept that what I want and what the market seems to want are at variance with each other. In this case, no doubt the market wins. With the above said, I must now decide whether I want to sell on the way up, or sell after we top, as it is unlikely I will get the very top, particularly in a market where things seem to turn on a dime. Regardless, it has been a nice run and I am sitting on handsome profits. So, it is not as if I have to deal with a lot of spilt milk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: The End of Consolidation: Aside from Tuesday, the market has mostly consolidated this week. However, despite my desire for more of the same in order to sustain the health of this bull leg, it seems that FOMO has once again taken over as the futures have surged in the last hour and a half. In this game the key is to recognize and trade what is, not what one thinks best. So far this week I have performed well. The hope was that this could continue through summer. If we blast off again today, and especially if the momentum seen in this bull market reasserts itself, it is likely that the run will end sooner rather than later. While I would prefer for this not to happen, for us to continue strong into next year, I must accept that what I want and what the market seems to want are at variance with each other. In this case, no doubt the market wins. With the above said, I must now decide whether I want to sell on the way up, or sell after we top, as it is unlikely I will get the very top, particularly in a market where things seem to turn on a dime. Regardless, it has been a nice run and I am sitting on handsome profits. So, it is not as if I have to deal with a lot of spilt milk. I jumped into NRGU the other day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I jumped into NRGU the other day Do you understand how these triple leveraged ETF's work? You do realize that they are strictly day to swing trading vehicles and that you cannot hold them for long duration even if you are right do you? Be careful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Do you understand how these triple leveraged ETF's work? You do realize that they are strictly day to swing trading vehicles and that you cannot hold them for long duration even if you are right do you? Be careful. I’m staying away from leveraged stocks for now, but what do you consider long duration?few days, couple weeks, months? Years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: I’m staying away from leveraged stocks for now, but what do you consider long duration?few days, couple weeks, months? Years? Regarding those triple leveraged funds, anything over a week is long duration which will almost certainly yield returns below what you expect based on 3 or 2x leverage. To me these vehicles should be banned except for accredited investors. The average retail guy cannot handle them. They only way they perform as implied over a week or more is if you get a market crash or a market melt up. For then the implied price of the futures included in the fund's assets, will rise or fall disproportionately. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Regarding those triple leveraged funds, anything over a week is long duration which will almost certainly yield returns below what you expect based on 3 or 2x leverage. To me these vehicles should be banned except for accredited investors. The average retail guy cannot handle them. They only way they perform as implied over a week or more is if you get a market crash or a market melt up. For then the implied price of the futures included in the fund's assets, will rise or fall disproportionately. Ya with these stocks it’s just mixed in with the normal stocks like Exxon and Twitter ect. They don’t tell you what exactly the stock does, it’s on you to do your research on stock, I saw 3x so that caught my eye Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said: Ya with these stocks it’s just mixed in with the normal stocks like Exxon and Twitter ect. They don’t tell you what exactly the stock does, it’s on you to do your research on stock, I saw 3x so that caught my eye If you get the prospectus which is generally several hundred pages, and if you can understand the legalese and the math implied in them, they actually fully disclose what they are about and come with sufficient warning. However, few investors, including many professionals either take the time or have the background to fully understand their implications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 4 hours ago, DarterBlue said: Do you understand how these triple leveraged ETF's work? You do realize that they are strictly day to swing trading vehicles and that you cannot hold them for long duration even if you are right do you? Be careful. I have no idea. All I know is I made a couple hundred bucks in the last 3x ETF I was in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Just now, HSFBfan said: I have no idea. All I know is I made a couple hundred bucks in the last 3x ETF I was in Just be careful trading these vehicles. Most individuals should not trade them. The fund managers get away with murder. I will leave it at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Just be careful trading these vehicles. Most individuals should not trade them. The fund managers get away with murder. I will leave it at that. Gotcha. Slmeone else told me to be careful with them as well. So I guess they can be volatile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Gotcha. Slmeone else told me to be careful with them as well. So I guess they can be volatile It's not the volatility. That is to be expected since they are 3x and 2x. It is the way they trade. They are not as advertised except over the very short run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 Just now, DarterBlue said: It's not the volatility. That is to be expected since they are 3x and 2x. It is the way they trade. They are not as advertised except over the very short run. Well i only trade for the short time. Im not in anything for the years to come. I'm in too make money now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: Well i only trade for the short time. Im not in anything for the years to come. I'm in too make money now What do you define as short term? If you mean minutes or hours they may be okay. When you stretch them into days, they may not be okay. Most people that trade them don't understand this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: What do you define as short term? If you mean minutes or hours they may be okay. When you stretch them into days, they may not be okay. Most people that trade them don't understand this. I've traded some stocks by the hour. I've traded by the day. Depends on what I hear and the feeling I get about them. Like I'm down today on NRGU but its Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I've traded some stocks by the hour. I've traded by the day. Depends on what I hear and the feeling I get about them. Like I'm down today on NRGU but its Friday. If you are going to day trade, you need to teach yourself technical analysis and employ technical tools to time and manage your trades. That's the only way to be successful at it if you plan on doing this long term. You have to make it a business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: If you are going to day trade, you need to teach yourself technical analysis and employ technical tools to time and manage your trades. That's the only way to be successful at it if you plan on doing this long term. You have to make it a business. Yes I know. Im very good at jumping in at aupport levels and such. Like i said I havent lost any kind of significant money yet. I more often take the profits and run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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