The Stock Market

[HSFBfan]

Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said:

That’s worse case scenario if it crashes, and pray to God none of those companies file bankruptcy 

Most companies won't go bankrupt.

U wanna make a fortune. Cruise companies. Put all the money u can

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

For me I’m sit tight if it crashes  hold my stocks I got and buy buy buy , 

If you are an investor who is willing and able to hold and sit on a loss for years, that may work. That is not what I do.

I regard stock prices as ephemeral and company fortunes as ever changing. So, I operate in the present. Do well in the present and tomorrow takes care of itself. I decided who I was in the market back in 1996 after bouncing around trying to find my identity. I had no coach and learned from experience. By summer 1996, it dawned on me I was a trader in orientation. I have been a trader ever since. The proof of the pudding is in its eating. I have never busted out and post 1996 never had a serious draw down. I like that and aim to keep it that way.

[DarterBlue]

15 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

For me I’m sit tight if it crashes  hold my stocks I got and buy buy buy , 

One other comment on sitting tight. You have never experienced a multi-decade bear market in your lifetime. But if you had bought the top in October 1929, you would not have broken even until 1954, 25 years later. If you were 30 then, you would have been approaching old age doing what you state above. Likewise, if you had bought the Japanese index in December 1989, today, 31 years later, you would still be under water. You see the thing to me is, I have no earthly idea where markets will be a year from now, let alone 10 years from now. But what I do keeps me largely in sync with the markets today. And, if I am not in sync, I stand aside. I did not make one trade between December 2015 and late January 2018 when I reentered the market on the short side. If I am not comfortable I stand aside. An old Supreme's song said: "You can't hurry love, you just have to wait ..."

 

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

One other comment on sitting tight. You have never experienced a multi-decade bear market in your lifetime. But if you had bought the top in October 1929, you would not have broken even until 1954, 25 years later. If you were 30 then, you would have been approaching old age doing what you state above. Likewise, if you had bought the Japanese index in December 1989, today, 31 years later, you would still be under water. You see the thing to me is, I have no earthly idea where markets will be a year from now, let alone 10 years from now. But what I do keeps me largely in sync with the markets today. And, if I am not in sync, I stand aside. I did not make one trade between December 2015 and late January 2018 when I reentered the market on the short side. If I am not comfortable I stand aside. An old Supreme's song said: "You can't hurry love, you just have to wait ..."

 

this is not 1929. So to bring up the great depression is disingenuous of you. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

6 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

If you are an investor who is willing and able to hold and sit on a loss for years, that may work. That is not what I do.

I regard stock prices as ephemeral and company fortunes as ever changing. So, I operate in the present. Do well in the present and tomorrow takes care of itself. I decided who I was in the market back in 1996 after bouncing around trying to find my identity. I had no coach and learned from experience. By summer 1996, it dawned on me I was a trader in orientation. I have been a trader ever since. The proof of the pudding is in its eating. I have never busted out and post 1996 never had a serious draw down. I like that and aim to keep it that way.

 I have certain amount of funds set aside per month to day trade and trade options , but I got %70 of my capital invested in stocks that when the price of oil goes up then I’ll see a profit 

 

im comfortable sitting on that capital for 6 months to year cause I got other capital I can use.

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

this is not 1929. So to bring up the great depression is disingenuous of you. 

Based on your comment you clearly did not understand the point I was trying to get across. Tell you what, you do your thing and I do mine. Ten years from now, let's compare results. I would be surprised if you are ahead of me, but if you are beers on me!

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Based on your comment you clearly did not understand the point I was trying to get across. Tell you what, you do your thing and I do mine. Ten years from now, let's compare results. I would be surprised if you are ahead of me, but if you are beers on me!

I dont want to be ahead of anyone. I live my life. There is too much comparison in this country.

I dont want anything. There is nothing driving me. There is absolutely nothing that I want out of life.

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

im comfortable sitting on that capital for 6 months to year cause I got other capital I can use.

Six months to a year is nothing. Anyone with self control can do that. I am talking about multi-year bear market activity. Currently the Fed thinks it has the solution to that. Print more money and bail out the system and we won't have multi-year bear markets. For now it has been correct. But believe me, eventually it won't work. But my advice to you is the same as to HSFBF. You do your thing and I will do mine. Ten years from now we can compare results. I am reasonable confident I will be ahead of you, but if you win, the beers are on me!

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, HSFBfan said:

I dont want to be ahead of anyone. I live my life. There is too much comparison in this country.

I dont want anything. There is nothing driving me. There is absolutely nothing that I want out of life.

I am sorry to hear that and suggest you change your attitude. If what you say is true, you are basically saying you are dead and that is sad. I hope you find a more positive way.  

[imaGoodBoyNow]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Six months to a year is nothing. Anyone with self control can do that. I am talking about multi-year bear market activity. Currently the Fed thinks it has the solution to that. Print more money and bail out the system and we won't have multi-year bear markets. For now it has been correct. But believe me, eventually it won't work. But my advice to you is the same as to HSFBF. You do your thing and I will do mine. Ten years from now we can compare results. I am reasonable confident I will be ahead of you, but if you win, the beers are on me!

Challenge accepted 

[DarterBlue]

Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Challenge accepted 

Then if I am not dead by then (I hope not as I have a commitment to my grand kid), I will meet you in Jersey. Bring all you broker statements from June 2020 to May 2030 and I will bring mine (to cut down on paper, quarterlies will suffice). Since we have different capital bases, it will be based on percentage increase over the period. 

[HSFBfan]

2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I am sorry to hear that and suggest you change your attitude. If what you say is true, you are basically saying you are dead and that is sad. I hope you find a more positive way.  

Nah I'm good. There is nothing better than just living day to day. U get up and hope everyday ends. Fuck the rat race. Fuck the comparison. I dont want to live like other people. I wanna live like me

I don't have the mentality like 2020. I should have been born in the 1800s. Life seemed amazing back then

I also argue against Lincoln. My buddy and I were at gettysburg last weekend and we agreed and disagree on things 

[AztecPadre]

16 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

this is not 1929. So to bring up the great depression is disingenuous of you. 

Dude he was making an example or different time periods.   How is that disingenuous?. 

[AztecPadre]

14 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

 I have certain amount of funds set aside per month to day trade and trade options , but I got %70 of my capital invested in stocks that when the price of oil goes up then I’ll see a profit 

 

im comfortable sitting on that capital for 6 months to year cause I got other capital I can use.

Baller alert!

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, AztecPadre said:

Dude he was making an example or different time periods.   How is that disingenuous?. 

Because it doesn't compare too today. This isn't the great depression. We just had the shortest bear market ever 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Just now, AztecPadre said:

Baller alert!

I was baller 😎 from June 5th-8th after that man, brutal is an understatement, I don’t know who I pissed off up above but Dude got it out for me

[DarterBlue]

43 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I was baller 😎 from June 5th-8th after that man, brutal is an understatement, I don’t know who I pissed off up above but Dude got it out for me

You didn't piss off nobody. You was just trading outta control!😂

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue when ever your free can you take a peep at this stock 

 

last 5 years has been really reliable 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

If this shit crashes again, I’m going all in  on blackRock

[DarterBlue]

18 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

If this shit crashes again, I’m going all in  on blackRock

Fiserv was a client of mine. Well managed company that serviced financial institutions. Fundamentally, it is a good company. Whether it's a buy or not here probably depends on your objectives. If you are looking for a quick pop, there is probably better out there. If you are looking for a relatively stable, long term investment, it is as good as any.

As to Black Rock, if we got into a financial crisis, I would avoid it. But it is the largest investment manager out there, so if you believe in bailout capitalism, then you may be protected. 

[DarterBlue]

Continuation Buy Points: Several posts ago, I spoke briefly about technical indicators and in it, I briefly touched on chart patterns. Specifically I mentioned topping and bottoming patterns. In this post I will briefly discuss what I refer to as continuation patterns or buy points. 

The most obvious buy point is to wait for pullback to support when a security is in an uptrend. The most obvious would be a pullback to a rising 50-day moving average for a stock that's in an uptrend. A recent example would be Zoom (ZM) which I bought at 142 a while back. The stock had made an all-time high in the 180 range and then proceeded to pullback to its 50-day. The 50-day was just below 131. I placed my order at 131, but it never quite got there. Instead it got down to just under 132 and immediately reversed higher. Usually I don't chase stocks when I fail to get them. However, this one had such a compelling chart that I paid up buying at 142. Well that was about 100 points ago as it now trades in the 242 range. Other support areas would be the lower band of an established channel, or, for shorter term traders a pullback to the 21-day moving average. This type of buy point is be definition secondary, as it involves the purchase of a security that is already in an established trend.

Another continuation buy point would be a flag pattern. A flag pattern is formed when a stock runs up at least 20% (the flagpole) and then proceeds to pullback in an orderly fashion over a week or more. The pullback leads to the formation of what could be interpreted as a side of a triangle. From there, the stock will typically rocket higher. The trick is to buy it just as it rockets out of the pullback. The logical place for a stop would be the old, flagpole high once the stock clears it. 

Cup and saucer type patterns. Often when a stock runs up, it will consolidate in an orderly fashion. It does this for the following reasons: 1. It may need time to digest its earlier gains. 2. The market may have gotten into trouble, but instead of going down with it, it chooses, instead, to just build a base. This is a clear sign that this is a powerful stock that will rocket higher when the market rights itself. The difference between a cup and a saucer is one of depth. A cup shaped consolidation is deeper and may involve a pullback of 30% or with volatile stocks as much as 50% from the prior highs. Saucers typically pullback 20% or less. The chief characteristic of both of these patterns is that the cup or saucer resembles the letter U. You want to buy when the stock blasts out from the right side of the pattern. 

Another profitable pattern is the double bottom which resembles the letter W. You buy this one when the stock accelerates past the middle point of the W on the RHS of the chart. 

I brought up the above, because it is far better to buy stocks emerging out of patterns than it is to buy tips or rumors. The patterns themselves, in addition to providing buy points, also provide exit points should the pattern break down, thereby limiting loss exposure. 

 

[HSFBfan]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

Continuation Buy Points: Several posts ago, I spoke briefly about technical indicators and in it, I briefly touched on chart patterns. Specifically I mentioned topping and bottoming patterns. In this post I will briefly discuss what I refer to as continuation patterns or buy points. 

The most obvious buy point is to wait for pullback to support when a security is in an uptrend. The most obvious would be a pullback to a rising 50-day moving average for a stock that's in an uptrend. A recent example would be Zoom (ZM) which I bought at 142 a while back. The stock had made an all-time high in the 180 range and then proceeded to pullback to its 50-day. The 50-day was just below 131. I placed my order at 131, but it never quite got there. Instead it got down to just under 132 and immediately reversed higher. Usually I don't chase stocks when I fail to get them. However, this one had such a compelling chart that I paid up buying at 142. Well that was about 100 points ago as it now trades in the 242 range. Other support areas would be the lower band of an established channel, or, for shorter term traders a pullback to the 21-day moving average. This type of buy point is be definition secondary, as it involves the purchase of a security that is already in an established trend.

Another continuation buy point would be a flag pattern. A flag pattern is formed when a stock runs up at least 20% (the flagpole) and then proceeds to pullback in an orderly fashion over a week or more. The pullback leads to the formation of what could be interpreted as a side of a triangle. From there, the stock will typically rocket higher. The trick is to buy it just as it rockets out of the pullback. The logical place for a stop would be the old, flagpole high once the stock clears it. 

Cup and saucer type patterns. Often when a stock runs up, it will consolidate in an orderly fashion. It does this for the following reasons: 1. It may need time to digest its earlier gains. 2. The market may have gotten into trouble, but instead of going down with it, it chooses, instead, to just build a base. This is a clear sign that this is a powerful stock that will rocket higher when the market rights itself. The difference between a cup and a saucer is one of depth. A cup shaped consolidation is deeper and may involve a pullback of 30% or with volatile stocks as much as 50% from the prior highs. Saucers typically pullback 20% or less. The chief characteristic of both of these patterns is that the cup or saucer resembles the letter U. You want to buy when the stock blasts out from the right side of the pattern. 

Another profitable pattern is the double bottom which resembles the letter W. You buy this one when the stock accelerates past the middle point of the W on the RHS of the chart. 

I brought up the above, because it is far better to buy stocks emerging out of patterns than it is to buy tips or rumors. The patterns themselves, in addition to providing buy points, also provide exit points should the pattern break down, thereby limiting loss exposure. 

 

Jetblue might be a great buy right now

 

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/06/20/what-pandemic-jetblue-launches-massive-growth-plan.aspx

 

Spirit airlines

 

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4354815-spirit-airlines-positioned-well-for-airline-recovery

[imaGoodBoyNow]

17 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Jetblue might be a great buy right now

 

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/06/20/what-pandemic-jetblue-launches-massive-growth-plan.aspx

 

Spirit airlines

 

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4354815-spirit-airlines-positioned-well-for-airline-recovery

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23O1NZ

[HSFBfan]

11 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23O1NZ

There ya go. Airlines gonna take off sooner or later. Tsa is processing half a million or more people a day

[DarterBlue]

What to buy in a Bull Market: In most of life's endeavors, the key to success is to buy quality cheap. This works sometimes in the stock market. But ironically, for traders like me, usually the best buys, are those exhibiting strength. In short, buying high and selling higher is often the best strategy. With that in mind, you don't just buy strength. You buy strength either emerging from sound bases, or bouncing off an area of solid support. I have found that my biggest winners have come from employing this strategy. 

Now let me be clear. If you truly are a long term investor, your biggest returns will come from carefully researched, cheap, quality: the illusive value play. But for me, an intermediate term trader, that is not usually what I fish for. To each his own.