DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Yes I know. Im very good at jumping in at aupport levels and such. Like i said I havent lost any kind of significant money yet. I more often take the profits and run What do you use to determine support levels? Also, a piece of advice: if you are going to day trade successfully, you should probably choose two to three stocks or ETFs and get to know them better than you know your mother or girlfriend. Once you know them very well, then you should stick to just trading those three or two of the three. That is the best way to make money short term over the long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: What do you use to determine support levels? Also, a piece of advice: if you are going to day trade successfully, you should probably choose two to three stocks or ETFs and get to know them better than you know your mother or girlfriend. Once you know them very well, then you should stick to just trading those three or two of the three. That is the best way to make money short term over the long term. I use barchart for support and resistance levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I use barchart for support and resistance levels Do you just take their picks or do you use indicators from their website to determine support and resistance levels? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 19, 2020 Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: Do you just take their picks or do you use indicators from their website to determine support and resistance levels? I just take whatever they say. Ive noticed they are usually spot on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I just take whatever they say. Ive noticed they are usually spot on Thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2020 The market staged a negative reversal day today. What does this mean? Well, the averages all opened up nicely, well over a percent higher but reversed to close for all intents and purposes, lower (the NASDAQ did eke out a tiny gain but was well off day highs). Volume expanded significantly which was to be expected as it was a triple witching day (expiration of options and futures contracts). At day’s close, the range was from a tiny gain of .03% on the NASDAQ composite to a loss of .8% on the DOW. The NYSE composite also lost .77%. Losing stocks led by a fairly wide 19-10 margin on the NYSE but only by 9-8 on the NASDAQ. So, what do I make of today? The actual losses were not severe. However, the way in which they were incurred was troubling. If the market had opened flat or slightly down and ended where it did, I would have seen today being more of the same (very similar to Wednesday and Thursday) and would have actually interpreted it constructively. However, whenever I get a negative reversal day, it is concerning. Why? Because it means institutions were selling into strength. The sharp selloff round about the noon time hour was blamed on Apple announcing it was going to temporarily shut some recently opened stores in Florida, Arizona and Texas among other states, due to a pick up in Covid-19. However, even prior to the announcement, the market had been drifting lower in a relatively calm fashion. One final point. Last Thursday, the DOW staged an Island Reversal day which is considered a classic topping pattern. What is an Island Reversal day? It is when an average or stock gaps up on one day creating a clear open space on a chart, then drifts sideways for some time (usually a few days, but it could exceed a week), before gapping down. Well last week Monday, the averages, including the DOW, gapped up. Then on Thursday, they gapped down. The result was a clear Island Reversal pattern on the DOW. While the other indices gapped up and down in similar fashion, none of them completed this pattern either because gaps were filled or because the action after Monday, did not fulfil the criterion as it did on the DOW. Why did I not mention this last Thursday? Two reasons: 1. Island Reversals are not the kind of pattern that concern me in isolation. I have to see subsequent technical action that tends to confirm a change in direction. 2. The DOW is the least of the big indices to me because it is just 30 stocks and it is poorly constructed from a mathematical perspective. So, what are my thoughts going into the Father’s Day weekend? I am still bullish. However, it would not take much to tip the scales. I have an eye on the door. On a personal note, my equity swung from being up over $6,500 to being down over $6,000. I ended up down $4,032 or .75% on the day. Winners included SHOP which was up big, and TTD and ZM. Losers were: The SPY options, LCII, TEAM, and MDY. The options loss was magnified in the fifteen-minute post close period as the S&P was down a further .6% from the day’s close. Still, don’t shed tears for me as on the week I was up $24,652, or a bit over 4.5%, which handily beat most of the market indices. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 6 hours ago, HSFBfan said: I've traded some stocks by the hour. I've traded by the day. Depends on what I hear and the feeling I get about them. Like I'm down today on NRGU but its Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 11 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: With the ones that track the index, his analysis is more or less correct, with the exception that he ignores fund manager management fees which eat significantly into performance. However, with the inverse funds, the ones that go in the opposite direction of the index (short funds), there is performance decay over time due to the use of futures to get the daily returns. So, those should never be held longer than a couple days, or you will get burned. For proof of what I just said, take a look at the chart of the QID from inception. Yes, we have been mostly in bull markets for this period, but they don't warrant the decline in QID's chart over the 13 year period even after adjusting for the math principles explained in the video. I learned that the hard way in the 2008/2009 bear market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 Technical Indicators, Key Building Blocks in a Trading Plan: For those that read my posts carefully, you will note that I have stressed the need to build a trading plan if you expect longevity in this game. The use of technical indicators is a key ingredient of a trading plan. What is a technical indicator? At a most fundamental level (pun intended), a technical indicator is one that incorporates price or volume action or both, in an attempt to divine the future direction of a stock, commodity, index or other traded vehicle. Broadly speaking most technical indicators fall into two major categories: 1. Trend following indicators; 2. Oscillators. Trend following indicators are designed to help traders stay with the current trend, and, more importantly, determine if and when the trend may be in the process of reversing. Oscillators, on the other hand, attempt to measure the extent of the variance within the trend, often providing points of low risk entry within the context of the prevailing trend. Examples of trend following indicators are moving averages (simple and exponential) and the MACD (Mac D as it's commonly called, where MACD stands for moving average convergence divergence). Examples of Oscillators are: the McClennan Oscillator, the Average True Daily Range, or the ARMS Index. The aim of trend following indicators is to keep you trading in the direction of the trend, as well as to establish good entry points based on support and resistance points within the ongoing trend. The objective of oscillators are to identify natural points of support or resistance based on overbought or oversold conditions, respectively. A third category of technical indicator is broadly defined as pattern recognition. Thus, their are certain patterns that often appear at major tops and bottoms. Among topping patterns are: head and shoulders, island reversals, and double tops. Among bottoming indicators are: double bottoms, U shaped bases after long, steep declines, and reverse head and shoulders. The objective of this post was not to get into the construction of indicators. Rather, it was to try and provide a general awareness of the existence of different types of indicators and to stress the importance of their use within the framework of an overall trading plan. A final comment on indicators. They are not one size fits all. You can construct your own. But even if you use common indicators you should modify them to suit your trading style. A fifty day moving average is not of much use to a day trader. Average True Daily Range is only useful to an intermediate term trend trader in so far as it may give an indication as to where to put limit buys and to a lesser degree sells, in. I would encourage anyone interested in trading to go to the internet and look up greater expositions on technical indicators. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 Free content of sound value. IBD is a relative expensive source of information. Thus, a subscription is not in the cards for most beginners. However, they do provide a fair amount of free content, including a useful week in review to which I have attached a link. https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-update-the-raging-bulls-victory/ It is somewhat technical, but like a foreign language or the symbolism of mathematics, with the passage of time it all becomes clear as a cloudless, summer day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: Free content of sound value. IBD is a relative expensive source of information. Thus, a subscription is not in the cards for most beginners. However, they do provide a fair amount of free content, including a useful week in review to which I have attached a link. https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-update-the-raging-bulls-victory/ It is somewhat technical, but like a foreign language or the symbolism of mathematics, with the passage of time it all becomes clear as a cloudless, summer day. I'll tell u this. U may know a lot more than me but I dont see why the dow can be over 30000 by the fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I'll tell u this. U may know a lot more than me but I dont see why the dow can be over 30000 by the fall I never try and forecast where an average will be in a specific time frame. It is a fool's errand to do so as the market is constantly adjusting to new information and is affected by the emotions of its participants. I let the action day to day and week to week determine whether I am long, short or on the sidelines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I never try and forecast where an average will be in a specific time frame. It is a fool's errand to do so as the market is constantly adjusting to new information and is affected by the emotions of its participants. I let the action day to day and week to week determine whether I am long, short or on the sidelines. With all these new cases do you see another mini crash coming soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I never try and forecast where an average will be in a specific time frame. It is a fool's errand to do so as the market is constantly adjusting to new information and is affected by the emotions of its participants. I let the action day to day and week to week determine whether I am long, short or on the sidelines. but that doesn't either accept or refute my point. U just don't want to try to guess or whatever the future of the markets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: With all these new cases do you see another mini crash coming soon I don't know. But if that is in the cards, the market will give some warning before we go into free fall. So, while I will not be out at the top, you can be sure I won't ride it down. No, I will go short by buying index puts, if I get a good entry point, and try and make money on the other side. That is what a trader does. You have to go with whichever way the wind is blowing. It's not personal; its about being profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted June 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 Just now, HSFBfan said: but that doesn't either accept or refute my point. U just don't want to try to guess or whatever the future of the markets That is the whole point right there. At best most guesses are 50/50 propositions. So, you have no edge. When I buy index puts or calls, it is to some degree, a guess. I acknowledge this and keep the wager small. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: With all these new cases do you see another mini crash coming soon Hell no!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: That is the whole point right there. At best most guesses are 50/50 propositions. So, you have no edge. When I buy index puts or calls, it is to some degree, a guess. I acknowledge this and keep the wager small. When the world was amazing we were at 29000. More people are invested in the market than ever. Everyone is waiting to buy. Cash is being held onto Btw did u see the 20 year old who killed himself over the market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: When the world was amazing we were at 29000. More people are invested in the market than ever. Everyone is waiting to buy. Cash is being held onto Btw did u see the 20 year old who killed himself over the market Ya darter posted a whole thread about that kid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said: Ya darter posted a whole thread about that kid Oh ok. Sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: When the world was amazing we were at 29000. More people are invested in the market than ever. Everyone is waiting to buy. Cash is being held onto I can tell you two main factors, Robinhood app and every Sports gambler I know have migrated to trading stocks, I mean every gambler I know are in the stocks for first time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said: I can tell you two main factors, Robinhood app and every Sports gambler I know have migrated to trading stocks, I mean every gambler I know are in the stocks for first time I'm on RH. Its an easy no commission app. You can get in and out quickly. Its great for new young investors who know what they are doing. You can make a lot of money. Betz is the new betting ETF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: That is the whole point right there. At best most guesses are 50/50 propositions. So, you have no edge. When I buy index puts or calls, it is to some degree, a guess. I acknowledge this and keep the wager small. For me I’m sit tight if it crashes hold my stocks I got and buy buy buy , 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said: For me I’m sit tight if it crashes hold my stocks I got and buy buy buy , Smart smart man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted June 20, 2020 Report Share Posted June 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Smart smart man That’s worse case scenario if it crashes, and pray to God none of those companies file bankruptcy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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