The Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

Stock Futures: As this is typed, the futures indicate an open tomorrow that will wipe out the gains from Friday's rather muted snap back rally attempt. Since the beginning of this bull move, I have noted that the fundamentals don't warrant the strength we have seen. But the elixir of very accommodative monetary policy overrode the negative economic and social backdrop. Last week, particularly on Thursday, real signs that the focus on Wall Street may have shifted have emerged. The recent spike in Covid-19 infections, the social unrest sparked by the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer, the increasing perception that the Executive branch has no remedy for what is happening, and fears about the strength of the real economy going forward have emerged. 

As I have mused, the above seem to be presenting a real challenge to the health of this young bull market. If tomorrow ends up being like Thursday, it may well mark the end of this move. To my way of thinking, the country is at a major crossroads. Regardless of the direction that emerges from it, I believe strongly that major disruption lies immediately ahead. Whether the Fed is able to "engineer" market stability in the face of this is literally the trillion dollar question ... to be continued.  

[imaGoodBoyNow]

8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Stock Futures: As this is typed, the futures indicate an open tomorrow that will wipe out the gains from Friday's rather muted snap back rally attempt. Since the beginning of this bull move, I have noted that the fundamentals don't warrant the strength we have seen. But the elixir of very accommodative monetary policy overrode the negative economic and social backdrop. Last week, particularly on Thursday, real signs that the focus on Wall Street may have shifted have emerged. The recent spike in Covid-19 infections, the social unrest sparked by the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer, the increasing perception that the Executive branch has no remedy for what is happening, and fears about the strength of the real economy going forward have emerged. 

As I have mused, the above seem to be presenting a real challenge to the health of this young bull market. If tomorrow ends up being like Thursday, it may well mark the end of this move. To my way of thinking, the country is at a major crossroads. Regardless of the direction that emerges from it, I believe strongly that major disruption lies immediately ahead. Whether the Fed is able to "engineer" market stability in the face of this is literally the trillion dollar question ... to be continued.  

So should I sit back and watch how the stock opens open before playing any options this week

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Might buy a few stocks or play options on it.... I’m gonna have to do some research on them

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

So should I sit back and watch how the stock opens open before playing any options this week

I think you should take a time out and watch the market period. You need to develop more skills to participate profitably. In my opinion, if you continue to trade at this stage, you are going to bust out. Does this mean you can't return later? Not at all. But in my opinion, you are not ready for this yet. You are too anxious and too undisciplined. This can be fixed. But you have not demonstrated a willingness to fix it.

I have given you some very wise council. But you only take the parts you want to take. This does not mean what is right for me will ultimately be right for you. But at this stage you have not developed a method that is sufficient to give you an edge. I have tried to guide you in the direction of developing an edge. But you have largely brushed this off. Without an edge you are just gambling. And, you tend to buy unnecessarily risky securities. With no method and high risk, it is almost 100% certain that your endeavor will not succeed. I am being brutally honest with you because I don't think you are some rich kid that can afford to blow your money. Like me you seem to come from a working class background. And while yours differs significantly from mine, I can empathize with your situation. 

[BigDrop]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I think you should take a time out and watch the market period. You need to develop more skills to participate profitably. In my opinion, if you continue to trade at this stage, you are going to bust out. Does this mean you can't return later? Not at all. But in my opinion, you are not ready for this yet. You are too anxious and too undisciplined. This can be fixed. But you have not demonstrated a willingness to fix it.

I have given you some very wise council. But you only take the parts you want to take. This does not mean what is right for me will ultimately be right for you. But at this stage you have not developed a method that is sufficient to give you an edge. I have tried to guide you in the direction of developing an edge. But you have largely brushed this off. Without an edge you are just gambling. And, you tend to buy unnecessarily risky securities. With no method and high risk, it is almost 100% certain that your endeavor will not succeed. I am being brutally honest with you because I don't think you are some rich kid that can afford to blow your money. Like me you seem to come from a working class background. And while yours differs significantly from mine, I can empathize with your situation. 

I apologize for not having closely followed this thread but I totally agree with your analysis of the market.  In fact in late February through mid March I sold a significant percentage of everything  I own (literally everything but laddered CD’s and munis)  and bought 3 and 6 month CD’s several of which are maturing this week and next. Last year, honestly, I netted a bit over 4%.  This year probably 2- 2 1/2%including the laddered CD’s and munis.
 

But I am also hesitant to even buy a muni fund or bond fund (I. e. DODIX) or bond etf (BND) because it would be at their high.  VWINX which has been a foundational fund for me since the 2000’s is similarly risky.  VYM fell to 62 or so in March from mid ‘90’s and could go lower.  Dividends like VZ or T, REIT’s like BXP scare me right now.

But I am also retired and going back to work is not a consideration.  
 

Still for me the goal is to hold on to what I have and make a decision when I feel more comfortable with the market which may not be until there is a vaccine. I think DarterBlue is giving very good advice.

Until then a casino may be safer.

PS In years past I have owned GE (at 55 or 60), CSCO (at 80 or so) and remember 2008 all too well.

 

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, BigDrop said:

I apologize for not having closely followed this thread but I totally agree with your analysis of the market.  In fact in late February through mid March I sold a significant percentage of everything  I own (literally everything but laddered CD’s and munis)  and bought 3 and 6 month CD’s several of which are maturing this week and next. Last year, honestly, I netted a bit over 4%.  This year probably 2- 2 1/2%including the laddered CD’s and munis.
 

But I am also hesitant to even buy a muni fund or bond fund (I. e. DODIX) or bond etf (BND) because it would be at their high.  VWINX which has been a foundational fund for me since the 2000’s is similarly risky.  VYM fell to 62 or so in March from mid ‘90’s and could go lower.  Dividends like VZ or T, REIT’s like BXP scare me right now.

But I am also retired and going back to work is not a consideration.  
 

Still for me the goal is to hold on to what I have and make a decision when I feel more comfortable with the market which may not be until there is a vaccine. I think DarterBlue is giving very good advice.

Until then a casino may be safer.

PS In years past I have owned GE (at 55 or 60), CSCO (at 80 or so) and remember 2008 all too well.

 

There are times when capital preservation is the right approach for most people. This may well be one of those times. Unless you are a very nimble, experienced trader, this is a treacherous market that most should probably avoid. 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks staged a nice reversal today after opening down significantly. Volume increased on the NYSE and was flat on the NASDAQ. At the close, the gains ranged from .62% on the DOW to 2.3% on the Russell 2000. Advancing stocks led by 19-10 on the NYSE and 8-3 on the NASDAQ. Today was the first really positive day since Monday, June 8, period! Yes, the averages were up decently Friday, but the action was far from convincing as stocks closed well off day highs. Today, on the other hand, gave a decent signal that the recent pullback may have about run its course. That would be great news for bulls!

 On the day, I had my best day since I reentered the Market on April 7 based on the April 6 buy signal as I was up over $16,400, or 3.23%. At day’s close my trading equity is at an all-time high after adjusting for withdrawals over the last 8 years. In short, it was a very good day for me as all positions except for TEAM and the miniscule option position in FRO closed in the black. In the case of ZM, SHOP, LCII and TTD, each of these had banner days being up by at least 4.3% each, and some much more. So where do I think we stand? I am cautiously optimistic that the recent pullback has run its course. It would be really nice if we got a few quiet days. These would be very constructive for the longevity of the current bull leg. However, this is probably too much to ask.

[BigDrop]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-warns-on-retail-investor-boom-during-covid-lockdown-213307360.html
 

Jeff Gundlach five days ago...

[BigDrop]

Wait a minute:  “the recent pullback has run it’s course...”

From down 750 or so to up 200+? This is gambling.  Forgive me because

22 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Stock Futures: As this is typed, the futures indicate an open tomorrow that will wipe out the gains from Friday's rather muted snap back rally attempt. Since the beginning of this bull move, I have noted that the fundamentals don't warrant the strength we have seen. But the elixir of very accommodative monetary policy overrode the negative economic and social backdrop. Last week, particularly on Thursday, real signs that the focus on Wall Street may have shifted have emerged. The recent spike in Covid-19 infections, the social unrest sparked by the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer, the increasing perception that the Executive branch has no remedy for what is happening, and fears about the strength of the real economy going forward have emerged. 

As I have mused, the above seem to be presenting a real challenge to the health of this young bull market. If tomorrow ends up being like Thursday, it may well mark the end of this move. To my way of thinking, the country is at a major crossroads. Regardless of the direction that emerges from it, I believe strongly that major disruption lies immediately ahead. Whether the Fed is able to "engineer" market stability in the face of this is literally the trillion dollar question ... to be continued.  

worth remembering on a day when gambling computers had their way and the Fed apparently said it would support corporate bonds (from who?).  Down 760 to up 200+.  
 

This is a casino.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, BigDrop said:

Wait a minute:  “the recent pullback has run it’s course...”

From down 750 or so to up 200+? This is gambling.  Forgive me because

worth remembering on a day when gambling computers had their way and the Fed apparently said it would support corporate bonds (from who?).  Down 760 to up 200+.  
 

This is a casino.

The stock market has always been a casino. Most people don't know this. Back in the early 1960s, Nicholas Darvas, wrote a classic book, Wall Street, the Other Las Vegas. It is still worth a read to this day. Darvas was the man when it came to trading. He was an academic who fled Eastern Europe when it was communist. He was forced to make his living as a dancer in the USA. His other book, How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market, chronicled his success trading the markets over a three year period in the late 1950s during which time he turned a little over $30,000 into the stated sum in the title. His big winners included: Lorilard and Thiokol, the latter of which was a huge winner for him. This book was one of the three best I have ever read when it comes to trading despite the fact that it is dated.  

[DarterBlue]

33 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-warns-on-retail-investor-boom-during-covid-lockdown-213307360.html
 

Jeff Gundlach five days ago...

Fundamentally, he is right. But this rally was never about fundamentals. It was and is about lose money courtesy of Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Like all artificially induced rallies, it will eventually end badly. However, for nimble traders, it has certainly provided a profitable environment to be long dynamic, growth stocks. The biggest issue I face here is when to exit before the party is over. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Coach I’m ready, put me in

[DarterBlue]

13 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Coach I’m ready, put me in

I donno man, your route running needs some improvement! The market gave a very faint green light today and the futures are up as I type this. But I suspect that the current bull move does not have a lot of time left in it. But even if short on time, we could get some real fireworks before it ends. If UAL would just pull back some, it should be optionable. But it does not want to do that, and as I have said, I don't believe in chasing cyclical stocks. You may want to take a look at housing stocks. I think several of them may be buyable. Here are some symbols. I will let you decide which if any interest you: KBH, HOV, LEN, TOL, BZH. 

[DarterBlue]

My biggest all-time Winners: Over the course of more than 30 years, I have had my share of winners and losers. However, there have been a handful of stocks that I consider my real, big winners. These are the positions I have owned that made me 100% or more:

• Sherwin Williams - This was the first stock I ever purchased
• Apple
• Drew Industries - now named LCI Industries which I currently own
• Technitrol
• Hanson Natural - now trades as Monster Beverage
• KB Homes
• LSI Logic
• Applied Materials
• Computer Associates, Inc. - now CA Technologies
• Best Buy Inc. 
• Andrew Corporation - bought by Commscope
• Right Management Consultants Inc - taken private

The above represents the stocks that have provided the best returns to me over my years of trading. With the exception of Sherwin Williams which I owned for a little over 2 years, all of the others were held for 15 months or less. I decided to list them to draw your attention to a few characteristics.

First, with the exception of LSI Logic, KB Homes and Technitrol, all of these stocks traded for prices over $10 per share at the time I purchased them. Of the three that traded under $10, only Technitrol traded for less than $5 at the time of purchase. So, with the exception of Technitrol, none could have been remotely considered a penny stock. You don't need penny stocks to make big money in short time periods! Second, the only cyclical stock on the list was KB Homes. Drew could have been considered a GARP type stock (growth at a reasonable price) while Applied Materials and LSI Logic were growth cyclicals (being members of the semiconductor group). The others were all growth stocks at the time I bought them. The lesson is: growth stocks provide the best returns in the shortest time periods. Third, with the exception of Drew Industries, Right Management Consultants and Technitrol, all the others traded more than 100,000 shares per day at the time I bought them. As late as the early 2000s, 100,000 shares was considered a stock with decent liquidity. The lesson here: you should generally avoid thinly traded issues. Fourth, all of these stocks had decent fundamentals at the time of purchase. There were no bankrupt or near bankrupt companies in the above list. The lesson, you don't need to buy companies that are financially precarious. In fact, I believe these should be avoided as risk reward is not good. 

The above was provided not to brag on my winners but to provide guidance on the characteristics of stocks that usually become big winners. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Of course they would skyrocket rocket up, damn I had them on my watch list too

[DarterBlue]

18 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Of course they would skyrocket rocket up, damn I had them on my watch list too

The problem with stocks like this is, you need inside information. The odds are probably 90% it will do a round trip back to penny stock status within two to four weeks. Most of the move is already made by the time it gets on your radar. 

The only time I have ever messed with "penny stocks" is when I became friends with our receptionist's boyfriend. He made his money "promoting" penny stocks. He would just tell her to tell me to buy X. No indication of why, which was greatly appreciated for my protection. I payed them with Sunday brunches at the Renaissance which they both loved. Win, win without ole Darter getting inside information.  

Without that kind of hookup, you have virtually no chance trading these very poor quality issues. But you can't seem to get that into your head. All I can tell you is, I wish you well. But I have seen this play out many times before from young colleagues at work. The end result was always the same. Meanwhile, I am alive, well and still trading!

I tried to be nice by posting my big winners and discussing their characteristics. But it will likely go ignored as you like the skanks and hoes of the stock markets. Skanks and hoes usually either give you a social disease or steal your money. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

The problem with stocks like this is, you need inside information. The odds are probably 90% it will do a round trip back to penny stock status within two to four weeks. Most of the move is already made by the time it gets on your radar. 

The only time I have ever messed with "penny stocks" is when I became friends with our receptionist's boyfriend. He made his money "promoting" penny stocks. He would just tell her to tell me to buy X. No indication of why, which was greatly appreciated for my protection. I payed them with Sunday brunches at the Renaissance which they both loved. Win, win without ole Darter getting inside information.  

Without that kind of hookup, you have virtually no chance trading these very poor quality issues. But you can't seem to get that into your head. All I can tell you is, I wish you well. But I have seen this play out many times before from young colleagues at work. The end result was always the same. Meanwhile, I am alive, well and still trading!

I’m just saying with the protests and everything like that it makes sense why sticks like these would be trending up

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I’m just saying with the protests and everything like that it makes sense why sticks like these would be trending up

Please see the paragraph I added to the original post. 

[HSFBfan]

On 5/28/2020 at 10:40 AM, DarterBlue said:

You be drinking with @HSFBfan again? Dat kid crazy, you be careful. 

I maybe crazy but im piling up cash on the market. 

 

People have come to appreciate my crazy 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Please see the paragraph I added to the original post. 

I did  look at post and I looked at every ticker you posted .. I’m not making making any moves till Thursday when I get more capital I’ll make moves  ... im just observing from outside for now while my long term stocks grow +4% per day

[FootballGuy]

10 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

I maybe crazy but im piling up cash on the market. 

 

People have come to appreciate my crazy 

Spread the wealth, my guy. What stocks are you buying shares in?

[HSFBfan]

19 minutes ago, FootballGuy said:

Spread the wealth, my guy. What stocks are you buying shares in?

I was jn an etf initials DFEN 40% profit

I was jn jetblue made about 25% profit

I'm now jn norwegian and six flags 

 

Up about 10-15% so far 

 

DFEN is trading at 15. Consists of boeing and other defense and aerospace stocks. Its volatile but u can make money fast

[HSFBfan]

I've said it for months the dow will be btw 30-35000 before November 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed broadly higher after gapping up at the open on higher volume. At the close, the range was from a gain of 1.75% on the NASDAQ to 2.3% on the Russell 2000. Advancing stocks led declining stocks by nearly 5-1 on the NYSE and by slightly more than 3-1 on the NASDAQ. This was a solid follow through on yesterday’s upward reversal day. So, it was great day for the market, right? No, I had several problems with it. What? It sounds picture perfect to me. Looking at the raw numbers yes it does. However, there was more to the numbers than meets the eye. Today, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, gave his annual testimony to Congress. This started at about 10 am. I listened to a lot of his testimony. He continued to vow to “backstop” US financial markets. And he also continued to muse that, perhaps, more Congressional stimulus was needed. Well, while I detected nothing new in what he had to say, like a petulant child, stocks sold off bottoming at around 11 am, when 2-3+% gains at the open were all but given back. Well from there they did find their footing and regained about 60% of the opening gains by noon. After that, they ran out of gas and mostly drifted sideways for the rest of the day. To my somewhat jaundiced eye, the action was indicative of a tired market. The early strength could not be regained. The good news is that it held the rebound. The bad news is that there was stark evidence on display that this current rally is 90% Fed induced. What will happen when the market no longer responds to the easy money? I shudder to think; suffice it to say it will not be pretty. But for now, the party continues. 

 Today, in contrast to yesterday, I underperformed the market. The funny thing is that all my positions were up except for the minuscule position in the FRO options. The bad news is that with the exception of the SPY, September, Call options, none of my positions won big. Consequently, on a day when the worst performing index was up 1.75%, I was up only 1.51%, or $7,905. Shed no tears for me. Except for the rich, that sum is fine pay for a day’s work. I have to now consider sending the IRS a check for estimated taxes, as year to date profits now exceed $64k. Fortunately, a majority of these gains are in tax advantaged accounts, so the damage is not as large as it may seem at first. Am I pissed at having to set aside money for Caesar? No, not really, it sure beats the alternative.

[HSFBfan]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks closed broadly higher after gapping up at the open on higher volume. At the close, the range was from a gain of 1.75% on the NASDAQ to 2.3% on the Russell 2000. Advancing stocks led declining stocks by nearly 5-1 on the NYSE and by slightly more than 3-1 on the NASDAQ. This was a solid follow through on yesterday’s upward reversal day. So, it was great day for the market, right? No, I had several problems with it. What? It sounds picture perfect to me. Looking at the raw numbers yes it does. However, there was more to the numbers than meets the eye. Today, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, gave his annual testimony to Congress. This started at about 10 am. I listened to a lot of his testimony. He continued to vow to “backstop” US financial markets. And he also continued to muse that, perhaps, more Congressional stimulus was needed. Well, while I detected nothing new in what he had to say, like a petulant child, stocks sold off bottoming at around 11 am, when 2-3+% gains at the open were all but given back. Well from there they did find their footing and regained about 60% of the opening gains by noon. After that, they ran out of gas and mostly drifted sideways for the rest of the day. To my somewhat jaundiced eye, the action was indicative of a tired market. The early strength could not be regained. The good news is that it held the rebound. The bad news is that there was stark evidence on display that this current rally is 90% Fed induced. What will happen when the market no longer responds to the easy money? I shudder to think; suffice it to say it will not be pretty. But for now, the party continues. 

 Today, in contrast to yesterday, I underperformed the market. The funny thing is that all my positions were up except for the minuscule position in the FRO options. The bad news is that with the exception of the SPY, September, Call options, none of my positions won big. Consequently, on a day when the worst performing index was up 1.75%, I was up only 1.51%, or $7,905. Shed no tears for me. Except for the rich, that sum is fine pay for a day’s work. I have to now consider sending the IRS a check for estimated taxes, as year to date profits now exceed $64k. Fortunately, a majority of these gains are in tax advantaged accounts, so the damage is not as large as it may seem at first. Am I pissed at having to set aside money for Caesar? No, not really, it sure beats the alternative.

I sold my position in norwegian which is tanking with the news that just came out.