Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: I happen to believe that Trump support is undercounted. Which has no evidence. But you have every right to believe what you want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: It's A+ because it's one of the most accurate and least bias polls. But if you don't like A+ polls that got Florida wrong in 2016, what about a C poll that got Florida right in 2018? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/ Maybe you're a fan of B/C polls? Or C- polls? 🤷♂️ 🤡 Not quite sure why you seem to think you're being clever, Andy. Your A+ pollster was wrong in 2016. 🤪 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: Which has no evidence. But you have every right to believe what you want. Oversampling in polls and poll results questioning the willingness to be open about support aren't evidence? 🤡 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, concha said: Your A+ pollster was wrong in 2016. Again, one thing happened once so it will happen again. I'm blown away by your logic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: It's A+ because it's one of the most accurate and least bias polls. But if you don't like A+ polls that got Florida wrong in 2016, what about a C poll? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/ Maybe you're a fan of B/C polls? Or C- polls? 🤷♂️ 🤡 He is, he always loved Rasmussen (C+). They picked Trump winning so it's a favorite of the right wing. Rasmussen's latest state poll was Biden +4 in Ohio, off 1,000 LV (poll conducted Sept. 1-2). Their other latest state poll was Biden +8 in Wisconsin, 1,000 LV. (poll conducted Sept. 1-2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Again, one thing happened once so it will happen again. I'm blown away by your logic. I recognize that the A+ poll was wrong last time in Florida. It would seem a potentially pertinent piece of data. I never said it would happen again. So we have Andy ignoring history AND making shit up. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, DownSouth said: He is, he always loved Rasmussen (C+). They picked Trump winning so it's a favorite of the right wing. Rasmussen's latest state poll was Biden +4 in Ohio, off 1,000 LV (poll conducted Sept. 1-2). Their other latest state poll was Biden +8 in Wisconsin, 1,000 LV. (poll conducted Sept. 1-2) I don't think Rasmussen is correcting for the potential issue I highlighted. Feel free to correct me. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 What do we do?’: Trump gains rattle Miami Dems https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/trump-miami-florida-support-410362 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, concha said: Oversampling in polls and poll results questioning the willingness to be open about support aren't evidence? 🤡 🤣 There was 12.3% third party/undecided in 2016 and Clinton was only at 45% in the popular vote. Right now it's 9% and Biden is at 49%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html Clinton was at 46% in Pennsylvania. Biden is at 49%. Clinton was at 47% in Wisconsin. Biden is at 50%. Clinton was at 45% in Michigan. Biden is at 47%. We have poll aggregates from 2016 and 2020. We have exit polls showing undecideds and voters who disliked both candidates voting for Trump. We had two somewhat prominent 3rd parties in 2016. None of these things exist in 2020 and Biden is polling at or near 50% in a lot of these places. The shy Trump voter theory based on a Republican-leaning Rasmussen poll is just a desperate attempt to make yourself feel better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, concha said: It would seem a potentially pertinent piece of data. Potentially is a good word. One that you didn't use. It's wishful thinking in the face of all of the other evidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, concha said: Not quite sure why you seem to think you're being clever, Andy. Your A+ pollster was wrong in 2016. 🤪 The A+ pollster you think you have this "gotcha" on was actually statistically closer than your beloved Trafalgar poll was in Florida. And you're actually incorrect, technically with a couple of your statements. Marist's LAST poll before the election was conducted October 25-26, 2016. It actually speaks very highly of Marist, as in a 2-way poll from earlier in October (3rd-5th) they had HRC up +2; so their polling became more accurate as the election got closer. The results were, TIE. HRC/ Trump with 46% each (to-way race poll). Final result was Trump by 1.2% (Trafalgar was off by 2.8% and I've seen all of you running around this forum praising them). In a 4 way race poll, they were still statistically closer than Trafalgar was (the poll every right winger talks up these days). Trafalgar picked Trump at +3 (correct winner, 2.8% over). Marist picked HRC +1 (off by 2.2%). Marist, statistically, was closer by 0.6% over Trafalgar. So yea, I'd say they're decent at polling. If they're off it isn't by much, maybe 1% in either direction. Considering FL has gone like this in the last 3 elections: 51/48 (Obama 08'), 50/49 (Obama 12'), 49/48 (Trump 16') - it would look like Marist is probably on point with this poll in its entirety. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: There was 12.3% third party/undecided in 2016 and Clinton was only at 45% in the popular vote. Right now it's 9% and Biden is at 49%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html Clinton was at 46% in Pennsylvania. Biden is at 49%. Clinton was at 47% in Wisconsin. Biden is at 50%. Clinton was at 45% in Michigan. Biden is at 47%. We have poll aggregates from 2016 and 2020. We have exit polls showing undecideds and voters who disliked both candidates voting for Trump. We had two somewhat prominent 3rd parties in 2016. None of these things exist in 2020 and Biden is polling at or near 50% in a lot of these places. The shy Trump voter theory based on a Republican-leaning Rasmussen poll is just a desperate attempt to make yourself feel better. It does make me feel better, Andy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 Just now, concha said: It does make me feel better, Andy. I know. It's all you've got right now. Literally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 Just now, DownSouth said: The A+ pollster you think you have this "gotcha" on was actually statistically closer than your beloved Trafalgar poll was in Florida. And you're actually incorrect, technically with a couple of your statements. Marist's LAST poll before the election was conducted October 25-26, 2016. It actually speaks very highly of Marist, as in a 2-way poll from earlier in October (3rd-5th) they had HRC up +2; so their polling became more accurate as the election got closer. The results were, TIE. HRC/ Trump with 46% each (to-way race poll). Final result was Trump by 1.2% (Trafalgar was off by 2.8% and I've seen all of you running around this forum praising them). In a 4 way race poll, they were still statistically closer than Trafalgar was (the poll every right winger talks up these days). Trafalgar picked Trump at +3 (correct winner, 2.8% over). Marist picked HRC +1 (off by 2.2%). Marist, statistically, was closer by 0.6% over Trafalgar. So yea, I'd say they're decent at polling. If they're off it isn't by much, maybe 1% in either direction. Considering FL has gone like this in the last 3 elections: 51/48 (Obama 08'), 50/49 (Obama 12'), 49/48 (Trump 16') - it would look like Marist is probably on point with this poll in its entirety. I don't have a "beloved" poll. But feel free to make shit up. Please show all the times I've posted about Trafalgar. I think it was for a few posts on one day? The Marist Poll I see from that date had Hillary up by one. NBC/WSJ/Marist* 10/25 - 10/26 779 LV 3.5 44 45 Clinton +1 To be clear, you've made a silly ASSumption about some love affair you think I have with the Trafalgar poll, you appear to have gotten the numbers wrong, and you've accused me of suggesting the Marist poll is a bad poll, when all I've said is they have some history being off in the topic of conversation: Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: I know. It's all you've got right now. Literally. I've still got hope, Andy. There's always hope... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, concha said: I don't think Rasmussen is correcting for the potential issue I highlighted. Feel free to correct me. 🤡 Since you don't seem to care about the numbers, merely if they picked the correct winner or not - I would think Rasmussen has nothing to correct. In your book, they did fine (picked Trump). So what would they have to correct for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, DownSouth said: Since you don't seem to care about the numbers, merely if they picked the correct winner or not - I would think Rasmussen has nothing to correct. In your book, they did fine (picked Trump). So what would they have to correct for? The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 17% of Likely U.S. Voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, DownSouth said: The A+ pollster you think you have this "gotcha" on was actually statistically closer than your beloved Trafalgar poll was in Florida. Yes. This has been pointed out already. Trafalgar was Trump +4 in a state that Trump won by 1.2%. To claim that this is very accurate is just disingenuous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: Yes. This has been pointed out already. Trafalgar was Trump +4 in a state that Trump won by 1.2%. To claim that this is very accurate is just disingenuous. Which I didn't do. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, concha said: Please show all the times I've posted about Trafalgar. I think it was for a few posts on one day? Don't need all of them. Just the one where you called them most accurate. 👇 On 8/26/2020 at 2:03 PM, concha said: In fact, perhaps the most accurate poll for those states was the "C-" poll from Trafalgar that you ridicule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, concha said: The Marist Poll I see from that date had Hillary up by one. NBC/WSJ/Marist* 10/25 - 10/26 779 LV 3.5 44 45 Clinton +1 Yes. More accurate than Trump +4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, concha said: Which I didn't do. 👍 Yeah. You said most accurate instead of very accurate. 👇 On 8/26/2020 at 2:03 PM, concha said: In fact, perhaps the most accurate poll for those states was the "C-" poll from Trafalgar that you ridicule. Sorry for that "inaccuracy" concha. I know how much you care about truth. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, concha said: I don't have a "beloved" poll. But feel free to make shit up. Please show all the times I've posted about Trafalgar. I think it was for a few posts on one day? The Marist Poll I see from that date had Hillary up by one. NBC/WSJ/Marist* 10/25 - 10/26 779 LV 3.5 44 45 Clinton +1 To be clear, you've made a silly ASSumption about some love affair you think I have with the Trafalgar poll, you appear to have gotten the numbers wrong, and you've accused me of suggesting the Marist poll is a bad poll, when all I've said is they have some history being off in the topic of conversation: Florida. The numbers I posted were correct. In a two-way race poll they had it as a TIE. You quoted the post where I show both polls, the 4-way race poll (Stein+Johnson) had HRC +1 (which puts Marist off by 2.2% - it was one of the more accurate polls, statistically, from 2016). You missed it when replying or didn't read the entire post. It was the same poll, but they ran 2 sets of data. Marist seems to be right on it with their numbers, doesn't seem to be any "hidden" voters either as being off 1% WELL within their MOE that was 3.5% for that poll. For the record, CBS News/YouGov was the best poll for FL. In a 4 way race poll, conducted Nov.2-4, they had a TIE race. So they were only off 1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 If numbers are being used, concha is most definitely lying and/or wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 25 minutes ago, concha said: Which I didn't do. 👍 All day long this Anus tries to pigeon hole .... and always looks the pigeon 🤣 trash talkin turd 💩 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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