Atticus Finch Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: Reuters has Florida biden +4 only spoke to 600 likely voters Which is perfectly capable of being a representative sample. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: So now we're going by who people are betting on?? No personal bias there You a month ago. 👇 On 9/2/2020 at 8:32 AM, HSFBfan said: Latest betting odds 50/50 Trump has come back from 25 down to a tie He has all the momentum 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bormio said: Trump might lose, but any Democrat saying “it’s over” after 98% Hillary is asking for the mother of all karma hits. Pretty sure 538 had Trump with a 25% chance in 2016, or close to that. Most people would cite them when they're talking probabilities. I think right now they have him at 15% chance to win, but they did have him as high as 32% chance to win to start off September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, DarterBlue said: It's over. Trump loses 35 states. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.......sigh......🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😘🤣🤣🤣🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: Justice Department acknowledges ‘inadvertently’ altering Flynn document with sticky note https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/10/07/doj-altered-flynn-document-427280 This doesn't say what you think it does. Trump's cronies altered evidence that made it favorable to Trump. 🤡 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bormio said: Trump might lose, but any Democrat saying “it’s over” after 98% Hillary is asking for the mother of all karma hits. Trump is not going to lose, bro. He’ll win big on election day. Their only hope is post election cheating. Everyone but the psychotic never trumpets knows it. Hell, even many of them know it, but won’t admit it publicly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Blueliner said: Trump is not going to lose, bro. He’ll win big on election day. Their only hope is post election cheating. Everyone but the psychotic never trumpets knows it. Hell, even many of them know it, but won’t admit it publicly. The polling won’t depress Trump voters, because they don’t trust it. With good reason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bormio said: The polling won’t depress Trump voters, because they don’t trust it. With good reason. Polls are very accurate. Trump voters are very deluded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Blueliner said: Trump is not going to lose, bro. He’ll win big on election day. Their only hope is post election cheating. Everyone but the psychotic never trumpets knows it. Hell, even many of them know it, but won’t admit it publicly. You need to get some counseling and get yourself back to reality. What cheating is going to happen? Explain it to me...where's it going to happen? How's it going to happen? If all of you know it's coming and you're all watching "the libtards" then how can these supposed morons on the left pull off anything? I don't know who you're listening to, but man you are OUT THERE with the stupid shit you believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 For years the exit polls were thought to be excellent. Then they had several huge misses favoring Democrats. The explanation became Republicans lie or won’t answer. So what makes you think the dynamic doesn’t now apply in preelection polling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, DownSouth said: You need to get some counseling and get yourself back to reality. What cheating is going to happen? Explain it to me...where's it going to happen? How's it going to happen? If all of you know it's coming and you're all watching "the libtards" then how can these supposed morons on the left pull off anything? I don't know who you're listening to, but man you are OUT THERE with the stupid shit you believe. Whatever you say, clown boy. You’re one o the psychotic never trumper of which I speak. You’re a lost cause. Ain’t gonna waste my time with you. Oh...And give DSouth’s handle back to him. You’re indoctrinated poser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Blueliner said: Whatever you say, clown boy. You’re one o the psychotic never trumper of which I speak. You’re a lost cause. Ain’t gonna waste my time with you. Oh...And give DSouth’s handle back to him. You’re indoctrinated poser. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bormio said: The polling won’t depress Trump voters, because they don’t trust it. With good reason. Nope. Not at all. Trump turnout is going to be epic. Never in the history of this country have we seen fired up, voter enthusiasm for a candidate: his base, pubs, mods, defecting dems, AA, Hispanics, Jews, cops, firefighters, the military....ALLL ready to vote for preserving the fabric and history of our country. I can’t wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 One of the failures of polling is they are not independent of one another. Pollsters toss polls and do not release them when they do not fit with the conventional wisdom that has developed. Thus polling, especially at the end, clusters around a certain number. And to reach that number, usually all you have to do is monkey with the assumed number of voters from each party on Election Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bormio said: So what makes you think the dynamic doesn’t now apply in preelection polling? Because we can compare "preelection" polling to actual results. Fivethirtyeight polling aggregation: Actual results: Clinton: 48.2% Trump: 46.1% Johnson: 3.3% Other: 2.4% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bormio said: Pollsters toss polls and do not release them when they do not fit with the conventional wisdom that has developed. 🤔 What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Blueliner said: Nope. Not at all. Trump turnout is going to be epic. Never in the history of this country have we seen fired up, voter enthusiasm for a candidate: his base, pubs, mods, defecting dems, AA, Hispanics, Jews, cops, firefighters, the military....ALLL ready to vote for preserving the fabric and history of our country. I can’t wait. Nobody says more things that are unsupported than Blueliner. This is the same guy who claimed that Trump was going to win the popular vote. A wishful thinker if I ever saw one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 23 minutes ago, Blueliner said: Nope. Not at all. Trump turnout is going to be epic. Never in the history of this country have we seen fired up, voter enthusiasm for a candidate: his base, pubs, mods, defecting dems, AA, Hispanics, Jews, cops, firefighters, the military....ALLL ready to vote for preserving the fabric and history of our country. I can’t wait. Speaking of Hispanics, the polls showing Trump doing a lot better with that demographic were probably just noise. https://www.latinorebels.com/2020/10/06/week5naleotrackingpoll/ 67 percent of all survey respondents plan on voting for Vice President Joe Biden, and 23 percent plan on voting for President Donald Trump. 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: 🤔 What? There were pollsters who admitted doing that in 2016. There are also good mathematical reasons why just average the margin over a large number of polls may give a skewed picture of the actual state of the race. The state polls in 2016 were brutally bad. The Marquette poll in Wisconsin had Clinton +7 one week out (she did not lose 8 points in one week). The media polls in Pennsylvania and Michigan were awful. In North Carolina, the GOP early vote was exceeding 2012 (Romney won the state), but the polls kept saying she would win there. Hell, there was an Ohio poll that had Hillary +5 in the last 2 weeks - she lost by 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zulu1128 Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 3 hours ago, DarterBlue said: It's over. Trump loses 35 states. Unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, zulu1128 said: Unlikely. We shall see in the very near future now, won't we? I believe this will be the largest margin since GHWB blew out Dukakis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: We shall see in the very near future now, won't we? I believe this will be the largest margin since GHWB blew out Dukakis. You'll know by January Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 Of course if Trump wins, leftists will point to the polls and say in unison “HE CHEATED”. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Bormio said: There were pollsters who admitted doing that in 2016. Like who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 8, 2020 Report Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Bormio said: In North Carolina, the GOP early vote was exceeding 2012 (Romney won the state), but the polls kept saying she would win there. The RCP polling average had Trump +1 in North Carolina on election day. And what do early voting totals have to do with polling? 🤡 You are a clown deluxe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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