State of the Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

Appreciate the reply. Hopefully my stop loss won't get activated on WMT.

Dumped one of my two pot stocks today. CRON.  But still holding on to CGC and the other stocks that won't get you high. Feel that CGC has more room to grow even with the recent run-up, but I got my trigger finger ready, cause I know there will be a harsh pull back in the short term to mid term.

Good to see someone else on this site interested in making extra money in the market.

In the USA or for that matter, most, if not all countries, you can't get rich working for a living unless you have a very special, rare skill. So, if you want to make a lot of money, you either have to have a business or you have to invest/trade. I am comfortable doing this because it's now been 28 years and counting. 

The most important lesson I have learned over this period, is to manage my risk. For no matter how good you are at picking winning positions, if you don't manage your risk, sooner or later you take the mother of all losses. Wipe out your trading capital and you are done both financially and emotionally. I am going to take a closer look at CGC. I have no problem with the industry as I don't see it as any worse than say, SAM or TAP. 

[BigDrop]

On 8/19/2018 at 7:10 PM, ohio said:

What do you think about these stocks:  WMT, ETSY, TTD, AMD, COKE, AAPL, and CSCO.  Have they gone up too much, or are they looking for a pullback?

Also, BABA looks like a possible buy for the short term

 

 

I owned CSCO when it was $81.00 a share....in 2001 or so.  I also owned GE at $50.00.  Today both are a fraction of one to two decades ago.

Today you can get 3.47% on a five year FDIC insured CD (3.6% with reinvesting dividends).  You may suffer with inflation but you will get back what you put in + interest.  There are ten year bonds (I.e. VZ, Starbucks, Capital One) that are now paying more than 4%.  

I believe you should focus on your career and whatever you save, at least guarantee you’ll get back what you put in.

For myself it upsets me more to lose money than It pleasures me to make it.  The result is that for my entire life I have tried to protect that which I have earned.

Be careful.

 

[ohio]

7 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

In the USA or for that matter, most, if not all countries, you can't get rich working for a living unless you have a very special, rare skill. So, if you want to make a lot of money, you either have to have a business or you have to invest/trade. I am comfortable doing this because it's now been 28 years and counting. 

The most important lesson I have learned over this period, is to manage my risk. For no matter how good you are at picking winning positions, if you don't manage your risk, sooner or later you take the mother of all losses. Wipe out your trading capital and you are done both financially and emotionally. I am going to take a closer look at CGC. I have no problem with the industry as I don't see it as any worse than say, SAM or TAP. 

Sir, you are so right and on point.

Before you jump into CGC, look at the one year chart.  It has sharp pullbacks.  A high of of 34 in Jan to a low of 19 in Feb.  A high of 35 in June to a low of 26 in July.  Long term it looks like a good growth stock, but with the recent build up, it may pull back any time once the cannibus high wears off. You might be better off waiting for a pullback. I bought 600 shares at 30.548 and 400 at 30.67, and am thinking it may have topped out and may sell it.  Glad I didn't sell it this morning. Maybe.

People don't realize that you can make more money in stocks, commodities, options, FOREX, than in your wages....if you know what you are doing and abide certain rules. Many times more.

I myself am a short to mid term trend trader.  Because I don't trust the market since it is overbought.  I'm not smart enough to trade options or FOREX, and find commodities like oil or gold to be too time consumming and stressful.

There are a few principles that I abide by, and try to never swade from them.

• Always have a stop loss or a trailling stop loss.  Always.
• Lose fast, but hold on to winners even if you give back some.  Even if you bat .500 you will make money this way.
• A trend is your friend.  The trend this past week or so has been canibus, next week you knows.
• Always trade high volume stocks that have that are increasing in price in the long term, but buy them only on a pullback.  Never chase a stock.
• If there is volitility in the market, I buy ETFs like UVXY that short the market. Since, I don't have a margin account.

 

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

For myself it upsets me more to lose money than It pleasures me to make it.  The result is that for my entire life I have tried to protect that which I have earned.

That goes for most people. It is one of the reasons bear markets are way more volatile and fast moving. For me, I don't get overly upset when I lose or overly elated when I win. The key is to have a plan that works and the discipline to stick with it.

Not many people do. So for you and the majority sticking to CDs or buying quality bonds is probably best. It will never make you rich, though. Getting 4% in a 2.5% inflationary environment does not give you much return. 

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, ohio said:

There are a few principles that I abide by, and try to never swade from them.

• Always have a stop loss or a trailling stop loss.  Always.
• Lose fast, but hold on to winners even if you give back some.  Even if you bat .500 you will make money this way.
• A trend is your friend.  The trend this past week or so has been canibus, next week you knows.
• Always trade high volume stocks that have that are increasing in price in the long term, but buy them only on a pullback.  Never chase a stock.
• If there is volitility in the market, I buy ETFs like UVXY that short the market. Since, I don't have a margin account.

Sound rules, particularly trying to hold winners and cut losers quickly. When I am fully invested, I use trailing stops and am more likely to pull the trigger quickly. In situations where I am only fractionally invested, I will sometimes give a loser a little more room if I believe in the company and its products and like the overall market. In any event, I strive to never lose more than 1 to 1.25% of my available capital on any given trade. 

I will often supplement my stock positions with small option positions on the index I perceive to be the strongest (for long trades). In general, I buy strong stocks either on pullbacks or in situations where they have been consolidating for awhile. In a brand new bull market, I may buy breakouts. But in mature bulls such as this, I don't troll for fish in those waters.

In bear markets, I will either buy a short ETF on the index I think will fall the most, or I may venture into LEAP put options. I never fully invest on the short side as I find down markets to be way more volatile than bull markets. 

[BigDrop]

11 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

That goes for most people. It is one of the reasons bear markets are way more volatile and fast moving. For me, I don't get overly upset when I lose or overly elated when I win. The key is to have a plan that works and the discipline to stick with it.

Not many people do. So for you and the majority sticking to CDs or buying quality bonds is probably best. It will never make you rich, though. Getting 4% in a 2.5% inflationary environment does not give you much return. 

You can become rich if you work hard, confirm trust and capitalize on opportunity.

Confirming trust for those who invest in you financially and emotionally may be the most important of all.

[ohio]

29 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

I owned CSCO when it was $81.00 a share....in 2001 or so.  I also owned GE at $50.00.  Today both are a fraction of one to two decades ago.

Today you can get 3.47% on a five year FDIC insured CD (3.6% with reinvesting dividends).  You may suffer with inflation but you will get back what you put in + interest.  There are ten year bonds (I.e. VZ, Starbucks, Capital One) that are now paying more than 4%.  

I believe you should focus on your career and whatever you save, at least guarantee you’ll get back what you put in.

For myself it upsets me more to lose money than It pleasures me to make it.  The result is that for my entire life I have tried to protect that which I have earned.

Be careful.

 

Sir, thank you for your concern.

I never went to college. Worked on a production line at GE in the 80s and 90s, got layed off.  Currently work as a security guard. So my career prospects and advancements suck.

I was a long term invester since 1999, but sold all my positions and index funds in 2016, a few days before the Presidential election.  Thought  that Hillary would win and increase capital gains taxes as well increase the tax burdens on corporations.  Mistake on my part.

Have been trend and swing trading since then.  Last year and this year, I have made several times more than I ever did on any job.  Ever. If I see volitility in the markets, I will go long on an ETF(s) that shorts the market.  I am not a long term trader and follow the ebb and flow of the markets.  What I and Darter do is not for everyone, especially if you are risk averse.

The Fed lowered interest rates too much for me to be in bonds and savings.

 

[DarterBlue]

11 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

You can become rich if you work hard, confirm trust and capitalize on opportunity.

You don't get rich working hard for someone else. You get rich working hard for yourself, if you have a good business idea and manage the company's resources soundly. Or you may become rich working smart.

But working hard for someone else, hardly. Yes, you may have a comfortable life, but rich you are not going to get. 

[BigDrop]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sir, thank you for your concern.

I never went to college. Worked on a production line at GE in the 80s and 90s, got layed off.  Currently work as a security guard. So my career prospects and advancements suck.

I was a long term invester since 1999, but sold all my positions and index funds in 2016, a few days before the Presidential election.  Thought my Hillary would win and increase capital gains taxes as well increase the tax burdens on corporations.  Mistake on my part.

Have been trend and swing trading since then.  Last year and this year, I have made sever times more than I ever did on any job.  Ever. If I see volitility in the markets, I will go long on an ETF(s) that shorts the market.  I am not a long term trader and follow the ebb and flow of the markets.  What I and Darter do is not for everyone, especially if you are risk averse.

The Fed lowered interest rates too much for me to be in bonds and savings.

 

You also are extremely expressive and a very good writer.  These qualities can also reflect skills of a very good manager.  

[ohio]

14 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Sound rules, particularly trying to hold winners and cut losers quickly. When I am fully invested, I use trailing stops and am more likely to pull the trigger quickly. In situations where I am only fractionally invested, I will sometimes give a loser a little more room if I believe in the company and its products and like the overall market. In any event, I strive to never lose more than 1 to 1.25% of my available capital on any given trade. You're like me in this, but I don't like to give losers a chance and only play solid companies..

I will often supplement my stock positions with small option positions on the index I perceive to be the strongest (for long trades). In general, I buy strong stocks either on pullbacks or in situations where they have been consolidating for awhile. In a brand new bull market, I may buy breakouts. But in mature bulls such as this, I don't troll for fish in those waters.  pullbacks in strong stocks are your friend.  I don't know much about options and don't care for expiration dates.

In bear markets, I will either buy a short ETF on the index I think will fall the most, or I may venture into LEAP put options. I never fully invest on the short side as I find down markets to be way more volatile than bull markets.  It's smart to buy ETFs that short in volitility.  The next market down turn just may be a increase or two in the interest rate by the FED due to the escalatig economy.

 

[BigDrop]

13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

You don't get rich working hard for someone else. You get rich working hard for yourself, if you have a good business idea and manage the company's resources soundly. Or you may become rich working smart.

But working hard for someone else, hardly. Yes, you may have a comfortable life, but rich you are not going to get. 

I would like to say more but this is not the forum to do it.  Rather I wish you and Ohio the absolute best.

 

[ohio]

30 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

You also are extremely expressive and a very good writer.  These qualities can also reflect skills of a very good manager.  

Thank you sir.

It would take me many years of being a manager to make what I made in the last two years of trend trading; considering I more than tripled my networth since then. There is no mgmt job that can do that.  All jobs are linear. Investments are exponential.

As far as market down turns.  I look forward to them, as I plan on shorting the market if it happens and then going long on select stocks and index ETFs like SPY. And yes, there will be a down turn esp. with Trump at the helm.

I'm in my mid 50's.  And if I could do it all over again, I wouldn't get someone pregnant in high school and would invest in index funds and some growth stocks.  Also, I would buy a duplex, rent half of it. Get good with a bank. Buy a quad, and find renters. In a few years buy a 10-20 unit apt., rent it, later buy an apartment complex, or even rentable commercial property.  I am no longer young, and wish I knew then what I know now

[ohio]

11 minutes ago, BigDrop said:

I would like to say more but this is not the forum to do it.  Rather I wish you and Ohio the absolute best.

 

Thank you.

[DarterBlue]

5 hours ago, ohio said:

Sound rules, particularly trying to hold winners and cut losers quickly. When I am fully invested, I use trailing stops and am more likely to pull the trigger quickly. In situations where I am only fractionally invested, I will sometimes give a loser a little more room if I believe in the company and its products and like the overall market. In any event, I strive to never lose more than 1 to 1.25% of my available capital on any given trade. You're like me in this, but I don't like to give losers a chance and only play solid companies..

I will often supplement my stock positions with small option positions on the index I perceive to be the strongest (for long trades). In general, I buy strong stocks either on pullbacks or in situations where they have been consolidating for awhile. In a brand new bull market, I may buy breakouts. But in mature bulls such as this, I don't troll for fish in those waters.  pullbacks in strong stocks are your friend.  I don't know much about options and don't care for expiration dates.

I usually only buy fundamentally sound companies, too. However, if a chart looks compelling and if there are not too many red flags in a company's history, I will sometimes buy a "speculative issue." But I never give those any leeway. If they don't work out, they are gone very quickly. One reason I can afford to give losers some room to run is that I never commit more than 12% of my trading capital to one position. Therefore, I can generally afford to give the stock a 10% margin in the opposite direction and still keep my losses under 1.25%. I do this sometimes if I really believe in the company. 

Options are bad in the sense that they are often all or nothing plays. But they can be good in the sense that you can precisely define your risk in a given trade. The trick to trading options is you generally don't want to buy options facing imminent expiration. You are usually better off  buying ones 90 days or more away from expiration. Yes, those are more expensive, but they have a much higher probability of being profitable over at least part of your holding period. So then, it's just a matter of managing the trade effectively. I closed out my QQQ options yesterday, because they expire just over a month from now. While I still think the market trend is up, with only about 25 trading days left to expiration, a pullback from here could seriously erode their value. And, if the market (or individual stock) goes nowhere while you are in a short dated options position, in the last month the time value erodes exponentially. 

In short, options can be a useful vehicle but they are also a dangerous vehicle. Unless you exclusively trade for a living, or are a market maker you should keep your commitment to options to only a very small percentage of your trading capital. 

[Bormio]

S&P in record territory.  Seems market is not taking impeachment talk seriously.

[paladin4ever]

Latest GDP estimate up to 4.6% by the way. 

[ohio]

On 8/23/2018 at 3:24 AM, DarterBlue said:

I usually only buy fundamentally sound companies, too. However, if a chart looks compelling and if there are not too many red flags in a company's history, I will sometimes buy a "speculative issue." But I never give those any leeway. If they don't work out, they are gone very quickly. One reason I can afford to give losers some room to run is that I never commit more than 12% of my trading capital to one position. Therefore, I can generally afford to give the stock a 10% margin in the opposite direction and still keep my losses under 1.25%. I do this sometimes if I really believe in the company. 

Options are bad in the sense that they are often all or nothing plays. But they can be good in the sense that you can precisely define your risk in a given trade. The trick to trading options is you generally don't want to buy options facing imminent expiration. You are usually better off  buying ones 90 days or more away from expiration. Yes, those are more expensive, but they have a much higher probability of being profitable over at least part of your holding period. So then, it's just a matter of managing the trade effectively. I closed out my QQQ options yesterday, because they expire just over a month from now. While I still think the market trend is up, with only about 25 trading days left to expiration, a pullback from here could seriously erode their value. And, if the market (or individual stock) goes nowhere while you are in a short dated options position, in the last month the time value erodes exponentially. 

In short, options can be a useful vehicle but they are also a dangerous vehicle. Unless you exclusively trade for a living, or are a market maker you should keep your commitment to options to only a very small percentage of your trading capital. 

Question.

If you have a margin account do you have to worry about a Reg T?

I dumped WMT on Thursday, and left money on the table by selling CRON too early.  At least I'll have some cash available for new trades this week.  Didn't want to wait till stop loss hit on WMT.  Charts and fundamentals look good on it, but something's bringing it down, maybe the Chinese tarriff scare?

[DarterBlue]

8 minutes ago, ohio said:

Question.

If you have a margin account do you have to worry about a Reg T?

I dumped WMT on Thursday, and left money on the table by selling CRON too early.  At least I'll have some cash available for new trades this week.  Didn't want to wait till stop loss hit on WMT.  Charts and fundamentals look good on it, but something's bringing it down, maybe the Chinese tarriff scare?

You would need to be careful that the "available funds" in the margin account are sufficient to meet the 50% minimum cash requirement for new purchases on margin. In other words, until settlement, the proceeds from recent sales (within the last two days), would have to be subtracted from your available cash to determine how many new shares you could purchase on margin at that point in time. 

So if you are using full margin in your trading, even with a margin account you need to be careful not so exceed your limits. I ran afoul of Schwab, once back in the late 1990s for that very reason. Of course, today, given my age and the adjustments I have made to the level of risk I am willing to assume, have not had this issue recently. 

[ohio]

6 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

You would need to be careful that the "available funds" in the margin account are sufficient to meet the 50% minimum cash requirement for new purchases on margin. In other words, until settlement, the proceeds from recent sales (within the last two days), would have to be subtracted from your available cash to determine how many new shares you could purchase on margin at that point in time. 

So if you are using full margin in your trading, even with a margin account you need to be careful not so exceed your limits. I ran afoul of Schwab, once back in the late 1990s for that very reason. Of course, today, given my age and the adjustments I have made to the level of risk I am willing to assume, have not had this issue recently. 

Thanks.

I already got one Reg T on my Ameritrade cash account, but they waived it and gave me a harsh warning.  Generally, in a bull market I try to be at least 80% equities with the rest cash.  Sometimes, a good opportunity comes up and I can't buy too much into it because the cash balance is too low, or if I pick a loser, it's tough to get out because of the Reg T concerns.

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, ohio said:

Thanks.

I already got one Reg T on my Ameritrade cash account, but they waived it and gave me a harsh warning.  Generally, in a bull market I try to be at least 80% equities with the rest cash.  Sometimes, a good opportunity comes up and I can't buy too much into it because the cash balance is too low, or if I pick a loser, it's tough to get out because of the Reg T concerns.

Since I resumed trading after a two year hiatus, I have avoided those issues by never being more than 40% invested at any stage since January 29. While, I have to admit that Friday's action was good for the bullish case, I can't help but feel strongly that we are going to have significant weakness before the year's close. Of course one should never let feelings override objective events. And right now the market is acting in a bullish fashion. For that reason, I will hold my current three positions, one of which, CRM, reports after the bell Wednesday.

The Ganja stock CRON did go crazy, as did others in that space. Of course a pullback will come at some stage, but it's nice to ride a parabolic move like that.  

[ohio]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

Since I resumed trading after a two year hiatus, I have avoided those issues by never being more than 40% invested at any stage since January 29. While, I have to admit that Friday's action was good for the bullish case, I can't help but feel strongly that we are going to have significant weakness before the year's close. Of course one should never let feelings override objective events. And right now the market is acting in a bullish fashion. For that reason, I will hold my current three positions, one of which, CRM, reports after the bell Wednesday.

The Ganja stock CRON did go crazy, as did others in that space. Of course a pullback will come at some stage, but it's nice to ride a parabolic move like that.  

I might decrease my equity to cash percentage as well, but will try to keep my longs till they fizz out.  I, too, feel that the markets are due for a pull back, so good thing there are ETF shorts to jump into, just in case.

CRON and the other dope stocks will eventually lose their Buzz, but might rebound after a sharp pullback.  I'll be keeping an eye out for that.  Seen it happen with the shipping stocks and the Ebola stocks (LAKE).  It's always good to buy on a dip. Might sell CGC on Monday if I see it going down.

 

[Bormio]

The state of the market is pretty damn good.

[Troll]

On ‎8‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 6:04 PM, ohio said:

Thanks.

I already got one Reg T on my Ameritrade cash account, but they waived it and gave me a harsh warning.  

LOL....

You might think a new purchase 'doesn't settle for three days' so the money from the previous sale will be there by then etc...does not fly most of the time...

But check with your brokerage on settlements and timing if you needed to make a trade, and were worried what cleared settlement, they can sometimes assist.  

Funny part was when they 'broke' the trade for me, the stock purchased had dipped, so the day that trade was broke I picked up 3K in the same position (broke trade $ in account immediately for purchase LOL) …..thanks for the warning 😎

 

[HSFBfan]

Up 260 points.....over 26k.....it is doing fantastic 

[THS2011]

I'm up

42% on FLR

125% on CAT

11% on AXP

6% on BP 

37% on FSELX

DOWN on 

.5% on T