ohio Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Yes. But it is difficult to be profitable for the reasons I mentioned. And the futures markets allow a lot of margin. Typically, depending on the commodity or financial instrument being traded, you need only put up 10%. It allows one to make huge gains and losses in a very small window. Most people bust out within months if not weeks. If you last a year, you have a shot! Read somewhere that 80 to 90 percent of commodities traders lose money. The reasons that you provided have shed some light on why that happens. Any way, I don't see myself as a commodities trader even if I got a seat on an exchange. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, ohio said: Read somewhere that 80 to 90 percent of commodities traders lose money. The reasons that you provided have shed some light on why that happens. Any way, I don't see myself as a commodities trader even if I got a seat on an exchange. If you are very disciplined and truly have an edge, it is a great game. Otherwise, if you have a day job, or don't have a real edge, then you should stay away. It is like the very pretty woman whom all the guys chase. You know the one, she is very aware of her impact and leverages it to the hilt. She is probably not good marriage material. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: If you are very disciplined and truly have an edge, it is a great game. Otherwise, if you have a day job, or don't have a real edge, then you should stay away. It is like the very pretty woman whom all the guys chase. You know the one, she is very aware of her impact and leverages it to the hilt. She is probably not good marriage material. I suffer from both maladies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: If you are very disciplined and truly have an edge, it is a great game. Otherwise, if you have a day job, or don't have a real edge, then you should stay away. It is like the very pretty woman whom all the guys chase. You know the one, she is very aware of her impact and leverages it to the hilt. She is probably not good marriage material. Where were before I got my ex pregnant in high school. She definitely fit that description back then. Lol Anyways, I'm gonna call it a night. So, we'll talk again tomorrow or on the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 22 hours ago, ohio said: I am in all cash and and have little cash available to trade. Probably won't trade today or tomorrow. Just want to relax. I thought I wasn't going to trade, but... Some cash opened up today. Saw TLRY fall hard at the open and starting to climb Bought 1200 shares of TLRY an average of 73.01 and sold it for 78.57. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, ohio said: I thought I wasn't going to trade, but... Some cash opened up today. Saw TLRY fall hard at the open and starting to climb Bought 1200 shares of TLRY an average of 73.01 and sold it for 78.57. Good for you! Because it's so volatile, it makes an ideal trading vehicle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/13/2018 at 7:23 PM, ohio said: Insider Cow. Haven't looked at that site for a while. As for many insiders selling GOOG stock, I really don't know why they are selling. Could be for various reasons. But it's better to invest in a stock where the insiders are buying back stock and even then if there is a market crash, it won't matter. As for the fire, it probably had little effect on it's stock movement. What's making it drop in price is market conditions, as most NASDAQ stocks have fallen since the September highs. agreed, and all good thoughts 👍 I had just saw it, and thought it interesting....thought you might like it LOL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/13/2018 at 7:23 PM, ohio said: Insider Cow. Haven't looked at that site for a while. As for many insiders selling GOOG stock, I really don't know why they are selling. Could be for various reasons. But it's better to invest in a stock where the insiders are buying back stock and even then if there is a market crash, it won't matter. As for the fire, it probably had little effect on it's stock movement. What's making it drop in price is market conditions, as most NASDAQ stocks have fallen since the September highs. Could it be that trump is looking into Google for anti trust? At least I believe I read that somewhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 49 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Could it be that trump is looking into Google for anti trust? At least I believe I read that somewhere My thoughts are not 'anti-trust' related at all....but if they are going to go after them, they will use anything they can... I had noted that while Google's 'new' (think portions of) operating system which is developed, but supposedly not 'released' yet, is criticized most often as 'bad' for it's censorship abilities (sites, access, information filtering/shaping etc) .....,But it also contains highly advanced capabilities for any government to 'spy', or have much more direct access and tracking capabilities.... This Is what I think is the 'true' reason our government is so pissed, at allowing a foreign government....ESPECIALLY China....to have access to the same type of tracking abilities and technology that our government has and does enjoy.... Might even be reasonable to assume that such a system, might have capabilities that adversely effect or own intelligence agencies ability to track what other governments (and even their people) are doing online... Just some .02 cents worth thoughts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 28 minutes ago, Troll said: My thoughts are not 'anti-trust' related at all....but if they are going to go after them, they will use anything they can... I had noted that while Google's 'new' (think portions of) operating system which is developed, but supposedly not 'released' yet, is criticized most often as 'bad' for it's censorship abilities (sites, access, information filtering/shaping etc) .....,But it also contains highly advanced capabilities for any government to 'spy', or have much more direct access and tracking capabilities.... This Is what I think is the 'true' reason our government is so pissed, at allowing a foreign government....ESPECIALLY China....to have access to the same type of tracking abilities and technology that our government has and does enjoy.... Might even be reasonable to assume that such a system, might have capabilities that adversely effect or own intelligence agencies ability to track what other governments (and even their people) are doing online... Just some .02 cents worth thoughts... The UN hit Google with 5.1 million in anti trust a few months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: The UN hit Google with 5.1 million in anti trust a few months ago. UN must need their own system (or an upgrade) too.... LOLOLOLOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Troll said: UN must need their own system (or an upgrade) too.... LOLOLOLOL... I'm just saying maybe Google is about to get hit big Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Troll said: My thoughts are not 'anti-trust' related at all....but if they are going to go after them, they will use anything they can... I had noted that while Google's 'new' (think portions of) operating system which is developed, but supposedly not 'released' yet, is criticized most often as 'bad' for it's censorship abilities (sites, access, information filtering/shaping etc) .....,But it also contains highly advanced capabilities for any government to 'spy', or have much more direct access and tracking capabilities.... This Is what I think is the 'true' reason our government is so pissed, at allowing a foreign government....ESPECIALLY China....to have access to the same type of tracking abilities and technology that our government has and does enjoy.... Might even be reasonable to assume that such a system, might have capabilities that adversely effect or own intelligence agencies ability to track what other governments (and even their people) are doing online... Just some .02 cents worth thoughts... Interesting. It seems that China is determined to track its people's location, buying habits, credit scores, and what they had for lunch. And Google wants to capitalize on their paranoia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 The Market: At Friday's close, the major indices are hanging on by a sliver. However, smaller stocks have already capitulated and the Russell 2000 was making new yearly lows. From here things don't look good. Through Wednesday, all the major averages tried to rally. But it was pretty clear by the final two hours of that day, that the oxygen was already running out, as although stocks still closed up, the ended up selling off in the final two hours and were at day lows by 4 pm. Well Thursday, the internals continued to worsen. Yes, the headline indices were okay, but secondary stocks broke down and the breadth statistics were horrible. Thus it came as no surprise to me Friday that there was intense selling. While we have yet to clearly surpass the lows put in October and November on the bigger indices, the odds greatly favor us doing so. At the end of Wednesday I was down over $4,500 on the week. By Friday's close, I was up $3,300 this week. Right there that says as much as I could about the market's action Thursday and Friday. The week before Christmas could see the Grinch. If it did it would be fighting history as we usually get a Santa rally which lasts through year end. If we don't get this, it would be very bearish! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/15/2018 at 4:09 PM, DarterBlue said: The Market: At Friday's close, the major indices are hanging on by a sliver. However, smaller stocks have already capitulated and the Russell 2000 was making new yearly lows. From here things don't look good. Through Wednesday, all the major averages tried to rally. But it was pretty clear by the final two hours of that day, that the oxygen was already running out, as although stocks still closed up, the ended up selling off in the final two hours and were at day lows by 4 pm. Well Thursday, the internals continued to worsen. Yes, the headline indices were okay, but secondary stocks broke down and the breadth statistics were horrible. Thus it came as no surprise to me Friday that there was intense selling. While we have yet to clearly surpass the lows put in October and November on the bigger indices, the odds greatly favor us doing so. At the end of Wednesday I was down over $4,500 on the week. By Friday's close, I was up $3,300 this week. Right there that says as much as I could about the market's action Thursday and Friday. The week before Christmas could see the Grinch. If it did it would be fighting history as we usually get a Santa rally which lasts through year end. If we don't get this, it would be very bearish! Market down again. Bought 1000 shares of UGAZ at 82.00 in premarket. NG is oversold. GL Not gonna buy anymore UGAZ, but will look to sell it as the US markets will open in a few minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, ohio said: Market down again. Bought 1000 shares of UGAZ at 82.00 in premarket. NG is oversold. GL Not gonna buy anymore UGAZ, but will look to sell it as the US markets will open in a few minutes. Sold UGAZ at 84.56. US started pulling down NG Nice quick gain. Bought 700 DGAZ at 84.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, ohio said: Market down again. Bought 1000 shares of UGAZ at 82.00 in premarket. NG is oversold. GL Not gonna buy anymore UGAZ, but will look to sell it as the US markets will open in a few minutes. Hope UGAZ works out for you. As I type this, the market indices have clearly taken out their October and November lows. Now this may not hold as we could rally from here. But if we don't this should herald the second leg of what I believe is a nasty bear market. As of five minutes ago, my equity for the year was at an all time high and I was up about 63% on the put options positions. If the week is particularly bearish, I may consider covering the PUTS and waiting for another good opportunity to buy more. We are approaching oversold conditions and as the market is like a rubber band we will probably be stretched to the downside soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 minute ago, ohio said: Sold UGAZ at 84.56. US started pulling down NG Nice quick gain. Bought 700 DGAZ at 84.73 GOOD! Now you have taken the other side of the trade with the DGAZ? That's pretty nimble if I understand what you have done. Hope that works, too! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, DarterBlue said: GOOD! Now you have taken the other side of the trade with the DGAZ? That's pretty nimble if I understand what you have done. Hope that works, too! Yes. As you know natural gas is traded in Asia first, then Europe, then the US. The Europeans started to rais NG and the US started lowering it so I jumped out of UGAZ and bought DGAZ in its place. Plus the weather forecast did not change, still expecting future warmer weather. So, things still look bearish for NG. When weather forecasts change or if inventory goes down, then I will go long again. Will keep playing UGAZ and DGAZ this week. Don't know what else to play. Pot stocks are less volatile and heading down slowly. The indexes could rally in the short term. So, I can't short just yet, but will if the market has a small rally. And no point going long on individual stocks. The only other play could be oil. So, I might buy UCO this week. Gold is up, but I really don't know enough about it to take any positions. Also looking a bitcoin. Might buy GBTC but not yet even though it opened up higher today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 58 minutes ago, ohio said: Yes. As you know natural gas is traded in Asia first, then Europe, then the US. The Europeans started to rais NG and the US started lowering it so I jumped out of UGAZ and bought DGAZ in its place. Plus the weather forecast did not change, still expecting future warmer weather. So, things still look bearish for NG. When weather forecasts change or if inventory goes down, then I will go long again. I have never messed with the energy markets so the info you provided is new to me. One trader that I respect who has made a lot of money trading energy is: Mark Fisher. I have found his "free advice" quite useful. He has a subscription service; however, being cheap and relatively broke, I have never taken it. I just used his trial. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I have never messed with the energy markets so the info you provided is new to me. One trader that I respect who has made a lot of money trading energy is: Mark Fisher. I have found his "free advice" quite useful. He has a subscription service; however, being cheap and relatively broke, I have never taken it. I just used his trial. Thanks. I will check him out. I started following the natural gas Discussion board on Investing.com recently. The people on there trade both ETFs and natural gas itself. They are pretty knowledgeable as well. Though there are some perma bulls and bears that are cheerleaders and bring nothing to that discussion board. I really like UGAZ and DGAZ due to their volatility and leverage, the only drawback is that the spreads can be 10 to 25 cents on them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, ohio said: Thanks. I will check him out. I started following the natural gas Discussion board on Investing.com recently. The people on there trade both ETFs and natural gas itself. They are pretty knowledgeable as well. Though there are some perma bulls and bears that are cheerleaders and bring nothing to that discussion board. I really like UGAZ and DGAZ due to their volatility and leverage, the only drawback is that the spreads can be 10 to 25 cents on them. Those kinds always exist. They think that they can will the market to go up or down. No one can unless the market is very thin. And even then, they can get hosed as the Hunt Brothers found out in the early 1980s when they cornered the silver market only to have the exchange change the rules on them. I will check out the discussion board you referenced. If I like the action of the natural gas market, I may trade a related vehicle. Funny how @zulu1128 had to throw a cheap shot my way as if I have ever solicited any business from anyone on this board. The fact is I never have and never will. My reason for starting threads on the market was to see if there were any like minded individuals that I could engage in discussion. A secondary reason was the fact that back in January of this year I had not traded in 25 months and felt that talking my way through the process (via my posts) would get me into form more quickly. When you write out your thoughts and feelings about the market and especially when you share them publicly, it engenders a degree of discipline that just acting on them does not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Those kinds always exist. They think that they can will the market to go up or down. No one can unless the market is very thin. And even then, they can get hosed as the Hunt Brothers found out in the early 1980s when they cornered the silver market only to have the exchange change the rules on them. I will check out the discussion board you referenced. If I like the action of the natural gas market, I may trade a related vehicle. Funny how @zulu1128 had to throw a cheap shot my way as if I have ever solicited any business from anyone on this board. The fact is I never have and never will. My reason for starting threads on the market was to see if there were any like minded individuals that I could engage in discussion. A secondary reason was the fact that back in January of this year I had not traded in 25 months and felt that talking my way through the process (via my posts) would get me into form more quickly. When you write out your thoughts and feelings about the market and especially when you share them publicly, it engenders a degree of discipline that just acting on them does not. Sold DGAZ at 94.57. Gonna go out and get some fresh air, then off to work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 39 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Those kinds always exist. They think that they can will the market to go up or down. No one can unless the market is very thin. And even then, they can get hosed as the Hunt Brothers found out in the early 1980s when they cornered the silver market only to have the exchange change the rules on them. I will check out the discussion board you referenced. If I like the action of the natural gas market, I may trade a related vehicle. Funny how @zulu1128 had to throw a cheap shot my way as if I have ever solicited any business from anyone on this board. The fact is I never have and never will. My reason for starting threads on the market was to see if there were any like minded individuals that I could engage in discussion. A secondary reason was the fact that back in January of this year I had not traded in 25 months and felt that talking my way through the process (via my posts) would get me into form more quickly. When you write out your thoughts and feelings about the market and especially when you share them publicly, it engenders a degree of discipline that just acting on them does not. Yeah, the perma bears and perma bulls are a pain in the nads, so I just ignore them. Don't worry about Zulu, he's really not a bad guy. It's just that perception among the general public and Zulu is that advisers really know what they are doing, and that their advice is Gospel. But we both know that many can't outperform the S&P 500 index in a 5 year period, for instance. As of now most of these advisers are down at least 3.4% for the year but claiming that everything is going great. Lol With the markets being volatile, it's better to trend trade now, than it is to buy and hold. So, just keep posting as you have been correct so far as to the overall direction of the market. Done trading for today. Gonna go for a walk and talk again tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, ohio said: Don't worry about Zulu, he's really not a bad guy. It's just that perception among the general public and Zulu is that advisers really know what they are doing, and that their advice is Gospel. I have to disagree on Zulu. In my book he is an utter and total a**hole pure and simple, end of story! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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