Apparently * do matter

[Ararar]

An experiment with star rankings

• by Ryan Abraham
• 68 minutes ago

 

Every recruiting cycle we continue to get declarations from statistically challenged individuals claiming that stars - aka recruiting rankings - don’t matter.

I wrote this piece back in 2017 and there have been several other articles explaining why stars really do matter. In a nutshell, recruiting rankings are not an exact science and there are plenty of exceptions to the rule, but in general if you have a five-star prospect he will have a much, much greater chance of success than a three-star prospect. 

We talked about this recently on the Podcast of Champions and then got an email response from listener Shane Deegan. Shane said (and we agree) that recruiting is all about hit-rate and with each increased star next to a player’s ranking he is essentially four (4) times more likely to “hit.”

He took a look at the early declarations for the 2019 draft, one of many ways you can measure a hit-rate:

5 stars - 40% hit-rate (14 of 35)
4 stars - 12% hit-rate
3 stars - 3% hit-rate
2 stars - 0.6% hit-rate
No rank - 0.002% (4 of 200,000+)

“The [Greg] Biggins & [Brandon] Huffmans of the world have no idea what might happen in the future: Who gets injured, has personal struggles, coaching issues,  transfers, who sits behind another 5-star for 3 seasons, and they’re still nailing it,” Shane wrote. ”The star system works. Period.”

Well said Shane. The statistics don’t lie, but we have published the statistics before and there are still doubters. Someone has to win the lottery, right?

So we thought we could come up with a real world example, picking a particular recruiting class and then taking a random selection of five-star prospects, a random selection of three-star prospects and then comparing how their careers turned out. Would the five-stars have some sort of leg-up on the three-stars or would each group have essentially the same amount of success five years later?

 

We started off with the 247Sports Composite rankings for the 2014 recruiting class since all of those prospects have finished their college careers by 2018 (with redshirt seniors just finishing).

Looking at that class here is the numbers breakdown for the five, four and three-stars in the final rankings:

Five-stars: 33 overall prospects

Four-stars: 296 overall prospects

Three-stars: 1,541 overall prospects

To make our selections we generated 10 random numbers between 1 and 33 and then selected 10 more random numbers between 330 and 1870. Taking those numbers, the corresponding players according to their overall rank became our random five-star players and random three-star players. We also did this process twice so we would have two runs at this.

Here is our first run with the numbers and corresponding players that were selected plus a few notes on how each player’s career went:

 

Five-stars:

6 Quin Blanding - Safety, University of Virginia, School record 358 tackles, waived after being signed as a UDFA in 2017 by Redskins, was just signed to a deal with the Carolina Panthers.

1 Leonard Fournette - Tailback, LSU, a finalist for Heisman junior and senior years, selected 4th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017, signed to a four-year deal.

16 Bo Scarbrough - Tailback, Alabama, waived by Cowboys after being selected 236th in the 2018 draft, shortly after he was released by the Packers and Jaguars practice squads and has since been signed by the Seahawks.

27 Tre' Williams - Inside linebacker, Auburn, career 188 tackles and 3.5 sacks, sat out a rookie year due to injury, worked as an Auburn recruiter in that span, signed by the Lions to fill depth at the position in February.

20 Sony Michel - Tailback, Georgia, Rose Bowl Offensive MVP, Nick Chubb and Michels combined career rushing yards (8,259) most for a tandem in FBS, selected 31st overall by Patriots in 2018, holds Pats rookie records for touchdowns, first 100-yard rusher, second-best rushing yards in a game (137), first to crack a 100 yards for three games since 1998, scored game-winning touchdown in Super Bowl 53.

21 JuJu Smith-Schuster - Wide receiver, USC, selected 62nd overall by Steelers in 2017, youngest player selected that year, selected Polynesian Pro Football Player of the Year for 2017, signed to a four-year deal.Will take over Steelers No. 1 receiver role in 2019.

 

10 Speedy Noil - Wide receiver, Texas A&M, undrafted and waived by Packers after a workout, shortly after was waived by the Seahawks, spent two months with the Edmonton Eskimos before signing with AAF team San Antonio Commanders.

29 Clifton Garrett - Inside linebacker, LSU/UAB, on and off-field violations cut short career at LSU, received multiple offers from FSU, U of A, and ASU but then signed with UAB. Considered the No. 1 bust of the 2014 class.

22 Raekwon McMillan - Inside linebacker, Ohio State, selected 54th overall by the Dolphins in 2017, tore ACL and lost his rookie year, became starting middle linebacker in 2018.

12 Andrew Brown - Defensive tackle, Virginia, started all 13 games as a senior, selected 158th overall by the Bengals in 2018, joined practice squad after being cut shortly after the draft.

 

Three-stars:

1521 Ayden Bonilla -Safety, North Carolina, graduated, didn’t play final year of eligibility.

 

770 Arkeel Newsome - Running back, UConn, 3 year starter, not drafted or in NFL.

1113 TL Ford - Wide receiver, played some for UNC Charlotte.

1758 Leo Ekwoge - Running back, Western Michigan, 7 career carries.

502 Ryan Sousa - Wide receiver, transferred from Florida to Southern Illinois. 

1854 Jonathan Celestin - Outside linebacker, Minnesota, undrafted free agent for Atlanta, signed reserve future contract with Carolina Panthers, made practice squads and cut by several teams.

398 Patrick Mahomes II - Quarterback, Texas Tech, over 11,000 yards and 93 TDs in college, NFL MVP in his first year as a regular starter for the Kansas City Chiefs with 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns.

1159 Elijah Rodriguez - Offensive guard, Texas, played in 34 career games with 18 starts, honorable mention All-Big 12 in 2018, not invited to the 2019 NFL Combine.

 

625 Harrison Phillips - Defensive tackle, Stanford, 3rd round pick by Buffalo Bills, appeared in all 16 games as a rookie with 35 tackles.

582 Chris Slayton - Defensive tackle, Syracuse, three year starter, invited to the NFL Combine.

 

For the five-stars group there are some well known names and one huge bust in Garrett. Outside of him, everyone on that list is playing football professionally in some capacity. 

For the three-stars we ended up randomly selecting some good ones including the current NFL MVP. There is a fairly wide mix in this group with half of them not sniffing professional football, two guys who are NFL players and one good enough to be invited to the NFL Combine.

It’s pretty clear that the five-star group is far more successful, but this was really a pretty good showing for the three-stars. Let’s see if that holds up for pass No. 2:

 

 

Five-stars:

22 Raekwon McMillan - Inside linebacker, Ohio State, selected 54th overall by the Dolphins in 2017, tore ACL and lost his rookie year, became starting middle linebacker in 2018.

7 Adoree' Jackson - Cornerback and return specialist, USC, Jim Thorpe Award winner in 2016, selected 18th overall by the Titans in 2017, a starter with Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler in 2018.

15 Teez Tabor - Cornerback, Florida, former back-to-back 1st team all-SEC player, selected 53rd overall by the Lions in 2017, starter to begin the season but was demoted to back up after a very rough set of games, coaches hinted at a possible position change.

17 Malachi Dupre - Wide receiver, LSU, selected 247th overall by the Packers in 2017; was waived in September, picked up by the Bills soon after and promoted to the active roster for 2017 season, jumped around to the Texans and Seahawks during 2018, has since landed at the Cardinals and was promoted to the active roster.

10 Speedy Noil - Wide receiver, Texas A&M, undrafted and waived by Packers after a workout, shortly after was waived by the Seahawks, spent two months with the Edmonton Eskimos before signing with AAF team San Antonio Commanders.

11 Marlon Humphrey - Cornerback, Alabama, selected 16th overall by the Ravens in 2017, started as a nickel back his rookie season with 2 INTs and 11 passes defended, named a starter to replace Jimmy Smith in 2018 and received an 80 from Pro Football focus for 15 passes defended, a forced fumble and 2 INTs.

 

4 Cam Robinson - Offensive tackle, Alabama, selected 34th overall by the Jaguars in 2017 and named starting LT, tore ACL in 2018 versus the Patriots and sat out the rest of the season.

23 Roc Thomas - Tailback, Auburn/Jacksonville State, was a depth player at Auburn and never got the starting reps he wanted, left for Jacksonville State in 2016, went undrafted in 2018, signed and waived by the Vikings shortly after, currently advanced to the active roster and played five games in 2018.

5 Da'Shawn Hand - Defensive tackle, Alabama, selected 114th overall by the Lions in 2018, named a starter soon after till acquisition of Damon Harrison near the trade deadline, now a backup.

6 Quin Blanding - Safety, University of Virginia, School record 358 tackles, waived after being signed as a UDFA in 2017 by Redskins, was just signed to a deal with the Carolina Panthers.

 

Three-stars:

1022 Jeray Demby - Safety, went to Monroe College and the Valdosta State.

 

1087 Matthew Jordan - Quarterback, Georgia Tech, got hurt. Getting a graduate degree in engineering.

962 Courtel Jenkins - Defensive line, dismissed from Miami, went to Houston and left there as well.

710 Trip McNeill - Offensive line, Duke, played in a handful of games.

1396 Antreal Allen - Defensive back, Georgia State, started for three years.

935 Tavon Ross - Safety, Missouri, versatile defender who played 4 years. Not invited to the NFL Combine.

660 Ryan Mayes - Cornerback, Miami, left in 2017.

397 Koa Farmer - Linebacker, Penn State, started in 2017 and 2018, not invited to NFL Combine.

 

1654 Hawkins Mann - Linebacker, Vanderbilt, played 2 games as freshman then got hurt.

697 Alin Edouard - Quarterback, Syracuse to JC to UTSA in 2017 but not on the roster in 2018.

 

The gap between the five-stars and the three-stars is much, much wider in this second group. All of the 10 random five-stars are making a living playing professional football and as of right now none of the three-stars are in the pros (Ross and Farmer could be this season). 

Hopefully after looking at our pair of random prospect selections it is clear that being ranked as a five-star prospect equates to a much higher chance of future success. And yes, a three-star can become the NFL MVP, but that selection was one out of over 1,500 prospects and ridiculously lucky. For every three-star Patrick Mahomes you can point to, there are a hundred three-stars that never make the league. For five-stars, there are far more prospects who make the NFL than there are that don’t. 

As Shane said, the star system works. Period. 

 

 

[HawgGoneIt]

Stars certainly do matter. Especially to Blake.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HawgGoneIt]

On a serious note... How exactly do they "matter" in the grand scheme of college recruiting?

 

I mean, the article just basically says that they're able to identify talent and apply some numerical value to it. Then they quickly cover the proverbial ass by adding that lots of variables yada yada yada. 

Most of us on here can identify talent when we see it. We don't need some goofy star rating really. Again, it's just there to profiteer off of needy parents and create a hard knocks life for good high school coaches everywhere. 

Like a novelty. 

Idk. Seems like it may be to college recruiters what a french tickler or grab bag surprise is out of the vending machine on a wall in the men's room of a bar to a guy. You might actually put 75 cents in the machine. Buy the goofy little novelty prize thing that pops out. Chances of actually putting the thing to serious use... Slim and none. 

[Ararar]

39 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

On a serious note... How exactly do they "matter" in the grand scheme of college recruiting?

 

I mean, the article just basically says that they're able to identify talent and apply some numerical value to it. Then they quickly cover the proverbial ass by adding that lots of variables yada yada yada. 

Most of us on here can identify talent when we see it. We don't need some goofy star rating really. Again, it's just there to profiteer off of needy parents and create a hard knocks life for good high school coaches everywhere. 

Like a novelty. 

Idk. Seems like it may be to college recruiters what a french tickler or grab bag surprise is out of the vending machine on a wall in the men's room of a bar to a guy. You might actually put 75 cents in the machine. Buy the goofy little novelty prize thing that pops out. Chances of actually putting the thing to serious use... Slim and none. 

They really should have done 5 and 4 star ⭐️ kids so we could see how well they identify talent that’s similar instead of obvious differences between 5 and 3 stars 

[HawgGoneIt]

2 hours ago, Ararar said:

They really should have done 5 and 4 star ⭐️ kids so we could see how well they identify talent that’s similar instead of obvious differences between 5 and 3 stars 

Well, they could have cherry picked whatever they wanted really, in order to prove some pointless point. 

Coaches and recruiters for colleges know talent when they see it. Just like the guys on here for the most part can as well. 

I don't really care that these star ratings exist. I just don't think they're the talent bible that they're made out to be. 

Certainly they're useful for the casual fan or a parent that needs some helium to inhale. Clicks and dollars. Clicks and more dollars. Give dad a little helium. It's all good. 

[954gator]

UF should have two 3 stars go in the first round this year.   Nt saying stars don't matter, but those recruiting sites have been heavily slacking on their evals lately.  They are getting super lazy.  

[RedZone]

Cody Ford, from Pineville, La was a 3* and the #59 rated OT and he he will go first round. Some have him as a Top 10 pick.

https://247sports.com/Player/Cody-Ford-37483/high-school-61563/

.....#59 is really pretty solid considering there are probably 257,987 high school O-Lineman every year..

 

My new recruiting philosophy? Big strong kids are big and strong.....fast kids are fast.......enter college as 2* or 3* leave as a possible 5* and first round NFL pick 

 

 

Cody Ford (Pineville, La and OU)

[954gator]

3 star from Daytona Beach Mainland

3 star Tackle from Cocoa

 

[Columbiafan]

16 hours ago, 954gator said:

UF should have two 3 stars go in the first round this year.   Nt saying stars don't matter, but those recruiting sites have been heavily slacking on their evals lately.  They are getting super lazy.  

I agree

 

Stars would hold better value if these recruiting sites would do actual research instead of applying blue chips based on where they go to high School

[SJR 04]

On 2/21/2019 at 9:07 AM, RedZone said:

Cody Ford, from Pineville, La was a 3* and the #59 rated OT and he he will go first round. Some have him as a Top 10 pick.

https://247sports.com/Player/Cody-Ford-37483/high-school-61563/

.....#59 is really pretty solid considering there are probably 257,987 high school O-Lineman every year..

 

My new recruiting philosophy? Big strong kids are big and strong.....fast kids are fast.......enter college as 2* or 3* leave as a possible 5* and first round NFL pick 

 

 

Cody Ford (Pineville, La and OU)

Linemen are the most difficult to assess for college scouts. I remember reading that 3* lineman typically do better than 5* linemen. For me I evaluate linemen on size and athleticism. If the lineman plays and does well at another sport that requires lateral movement and footwork like basketball then I really like his chances 

[ECHS05]

https://247sports.com/Player/Deandre-Baker-35965/

Deandre Baker was a 3*... He was the #67 rated CB & #657 player overall in the 2015 class.

Hes now going to be a 1st Rd draft pick, won the Jim Thorpe Award, & is ranked as a top 3 CB in the NFL Draft.

 

The Stars are just there for the fans. Getting a commit from a 5* prospect generates a lot of excitement from fans.

 

[golfaddict1]

It’s not like 3 star rated kids are taboo and omitted by upper tier fbs schools.   

Marlon Martinez STA OL is a 3 star rated recruit and recently picked up some big time offers incl Georgia and Ohio State. 

I still think the offers list dictates the rating more than a 247 analyst rating a 9th or 10th grader a 4 star before an offer exists.  

With a group of talented kids competing at a combine, sure those who excel will get a boost and those who don’t fare well will be dropped.  It’s not a perfect science.  

Look at George Campbell, stud 5 star rated hs wr.  Now a graduate transfer from FSU to Penn State I read about recently.  6 receptions in 2017 was his season career high at FSU.  

 

[RedZone]

College football player development wiil always "trump" stars...no one has stars when the first day of spring practice starts at LSU. You don't get a special helmet for being a 5*.

It IS nice to build your program on "can't miss prospects" though. The real "eye catchers". Some pan out, some don't.

Some prospects just don't know how good they really are till they get pushed.