ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 And yes... mine is the correct way stanny boy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCBlackhatter Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: De La Salle 78 + 59.7 + 56.7 + 56.6 + 44.5 + 62 + 80.1 + (74.6×2.1) + (86.8×2.1) + (61.8×2.1) = 906.32 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 2.1 = 13.3 906.32/13.3 = 68.1443609023 Or 68.14 DLSs final rating at CP was a 70.4 ... ==== Add in their starting rating... 906.32 + 73.9 = 980.22 13.3 + 1 = 14.3 980.22 / 14.3 = 68.5468531469 Or... 68.55 The remaining points must be the hyperimprovement factor that DLS receives from Ned at the end of each season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, CCBlackhatter said: The remaining points must be the hyperimprovement factor that DLS receives from Ned at the end of each season. Im sure theres some "Historical Because They Are De La Salle Factor" bump... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 I can only assume Stan is speechless at my brilliance? Id love to know what he meant by .217 or something or another... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 38 minutes ago, stanscript said: .2185221436 What is this mess? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Just now, ECHS05 said: I can only assume Stan is speechless at my brilliance? Id love to know what he meant by .217 or something or another... Multiply that by 10 and add it to DLS' actual final rating and that's the secret sauce for the Spartans and other Ned favorites in CP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: Multiply that by 10 and add it to DLS' actual final rating and that's the secret sauce for the Spartans and other Ned favorites in CP? Lets see... 68.14... .2185221436 (the new one he posted) x 10 = 2.185221436 68.14 + 2.185221436 = 70.325221436 or 70.33 DLS' final rating was 70.4 Round up 70.33 to 70.4 because thats how it is and voila.... Holy shit... you may be on to something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCBlackhatter Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Could these slight variances occur because Ned weighs playoff games differently based on each state? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Just now, ECHS05 said: Lets see... 68.14... .2185221436 (the new one he posted) x 10 = 2.185221436 68.14 + 2.185221436 = 70.325221436 or 70.33 DLS' final rating was 70.4 Round up 70.33 to 70.4 because thats how it is and voila.... Holy shit... you may be on to something You also have to subtract that same number from any south east teams final rating also. I forgot to add that part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Good stuff. Gunna have to review slowly and fix my errors. Was watching Federer win another slam and then the sun came out and pool time. Echs wasn't DLS held back by .2 due to East final rating? That has to account somewhere in formula no? A handful of us know that rule. Not worth detailing unless you want lol. No team can pass a team they lost to if the other team runs the table. No matter what? Maybe East DLS is wrong example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanscript Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 .2185221436 ECHS I did the calculation for DLS. Not sure who is right. Sometimes I’m closer and sometime you are. I can sort of see your logic but not sure if it is correct. I think you can see my logic but am not sure that it is correct either. Here’s what I got for DLS. Regular season average 62.5 Playoff average 75.1 62.5 x .32258 = 20.17 75.1 x .67742 = +50.87 71.04 PR (so it’s pretty close, this time) You might wonder how I got the two decimal place numbers above: .67742 / .32258 = 2.1 (giving playoffs 2.1 times the weight) .67742 + .32258 = 1.00000 Oh the number at the top is .2815221436 which is to show that I didn't make up something because I know sure as hell that someone will say that I hadn't a clue as to how to do this. .32258 x .67742 = .2185221436 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Another ? Freeman mentions ** are weighted differently yet are boldfaced. We don't know what the weighted differently means or do we exclude the ** in the ratings tally even though Freeman says roughly avg the boldfaced games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanscript Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Sorry, I misread one of DLS's playoff games as 88.8 when it should have been 86.8 The regular season component remained at 20.17 The playoff component went down to + 50.40 Final PR down from 71.04 70.57 DLS PR was 70.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 55 minutes ago, stanscript said: .2185221436 ECHS I did the calculation for DLS. Not sure who is right. Sometimes I’m closer and sometime you are. I can sort of see your logic but not sure if it is correct. I think you can see my logic but am not sure that it is correct either. Here’s what I got for DLS. Regular season average 62.5 Playoff average 75.1 62.5 x .32258 = 20.17 75.1 x .67742 = +50.87 71.04 PR (so it’s pretty close, this time) You might wonder how I got the two decimal place numbers above: .67742 / .32258 = 2.1 (giving playoffs 2.1 times the weight) .67742 + .32258 = 1.00000 Oh the number at the top is .2815221436 which is to show that I didn't make up something because I know sure as hell that someone will say that I hadn't a clue as to how to do this. .32258 x .67742 = .2185221436 I can tell you that I am not wrong. I do see what youre doing ... Theres also more than 1 way to get to the right answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 58 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said: Another ? Freeman mentions ** are weighted differently yet are boldfaced. We don't know what the weighted differently means or do we exclude the ** in the ratings tally even though Freeman says roughly avg the boldfaced games? True... if we wanted to with DLS... their ** game is the 78... if we want it to count less.... say it only counts 50% ... itd look this way (78×.5) + 59.7 + 56.7 + 56.6 + 44.5 + 62 + 80.1 + (74.6×2.1) + (86.8×2.1) + (61.8×2.1) = 867.32 .5 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 2.1 = 12.8 867.32/12.8 = 67.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Doing it this way, its never going to be perfect... he never says how much the ** games are weighed, or how much the grey games are weighed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Doing it this way, its never going to be perfect... he never says how much the ** games are weighed, or how much the grey games are weighed. "Roughly" . I "think" he omits the grey totally. Boldfaced we agree no way to tell what that weight is with ** or if he even does anything with the * or not. We know the .2 rule (Pops called that I think?). That isn't mentioned by Freeman in any text. Still unknowns. Fisher has the secret sauce, Ned has a little roughly. It's all good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanscript Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 6 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Ok... let me take a stab. Same # of Regular Season games as Playoff games are Bolded. Regular Season Average = 70 Playoff Game Average = 80 2.1 Boost to Playoff games. The final rating in this scenario is going to end up right at 77.2 ... you want to see how I got to that #? Actually, you got it wrong but I think it is because you miscalculated By your method you should have gotten 70 + 168 (80 * 2.1) = 238 = 76.7742 1 + 2.1 = 3.1 I get 76.7742 using my method but it seems easier when using several numbers. Do it your way if you like. 70 x .32258 = 22.5806 80 x .67742 = 54.1936 76.7742 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 It says As you'd imagine, playoff results (and in particular, championship results) are weighted much more heavily in determining a team's ratings than are regular-season results. ... so championship games count even more? Valdosta 76.8 + 67.1 + 37.8 + 66 + 48.3 + 36.5 + 70.9 + 66.7 + 58.5 + 59.8 + 52.9 + (66.7×2.1) + (54.9×2.1) + (69.1×2.1) + (73.1×2.1) = 1195.28 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 2.1 = 19.4 1195.28 / 19.4 = 61.61 Valdosta finished 63.8 Im guessing the +2.5 in his state scaling had something to do with this. Also the fact that the Championship game counts for even more than the rest of the playoffs... of which Valdosta had a 73.1 PR in the Championship... im certain this accounts for some of it. ===== Trying it Stans way... Regular Season Avg = 58.3 .32258 = 18.806414 Playoff Average = 65.95 .67742 = 44.675849 63.48 ... he gets pretty close there. ==== Trying McEachern 51.3 + 63.6 + 61.6 + 67.4 + 63.4 + 50.5 + 54.8 + (61×2.1) + (58.4×2.1) + (49.7×2.1) = 767.71 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 2.1 = 13.3 767.71 / 13.3 = 57.722556391 McEacherns final PR was 57.5 ... ========= Using Stans way... Regular Season = 58.9428571429 .32258 Playoff Season = 56.3666666667 .67742 38.1839073333 + 19.0137868572 = 57.1976941905 McEacherns PR is 57.5 Were both pretty close on McEachern, mine a smidgen closer .. His was closer with Valdosta and mine McEachern. I wish I knew exactly how much Championship games were worth also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Just now, stanscript said: Actually, you got it wrong but I think it is because you miscalculated By your method you should have gotten 70 + 168 (80 * 2.1) = 238 = 76.7742 1 + 2.1 = 3.1 I get 76.7742 using my method but it seems easier when using several numbers. Do it your way if you like. 70 x .32258 = 22.5806 80 x .67742 = 54.1936 76.7742 I did miscalculate... disregard that post of mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 50.6 is the target rating for this team... 55.6 + 54.7 + 34.1 + 69.1 + 62 + 37.2 + 20.7 + 73.1 + 56.8 + (47.3×2.1) = 562.63 9 + 2.1 = 11.1 562.63 / 11.1 = 50.68 I pretty much hit it here .... Lets use Stans way... Regular = 463.3/9 = 51.4777777778 × .32258 = 16.6057015556 Playoffs = 47.3/1 = 47.3 × .67742 = 32.041966 = 48.6 50.6 was the target... Im much closer here... The problem with yours is Stan... if theres a lot more regular season than playoff games... yours is going to probably be off more and more... because you are making that 1 playoff game worth too much in this teams case. In fact Im about to find a playoff team that got blown out in their 1st playoff game... and show you some errors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Lets try this team.. the target rating is 44.1 57.4 + 28.4 + 49.1 + 55.3 + 44.6 + 63.4 + 58.7 + (44.2×2.1) + (23.8×2.1) = 499.7 7 + 4.2 = 11.2 499.7 / 11.2 = 44.62 Only .52 off ==== And Stans Way ... 356.9/7 = 50.9857142857 × .32258 = 16.4469717143 68/2 = 34 × .67742 = 23.03228 = 39.48 You are off by 4.62 here... while im only off by .52... theres a reason for this. Your way is making the playoffs worth 2.1 times more, not just each game.. but the entire playoffs.... if a team only plays 1 playoff game, but has 9 regular season games... you are still making that 1 playoff game mean over twice what those 9 regular season games will... its the flaw in yours... that can get you close sometimes, but its technically not correct. My way I can make each individual game equal exactly what I want it to... This team was Norcross GA btw... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Lets try this team.. the target rating is 44.1 57.4 + 28.4 + 49.1 + 55.3 + 44.6 + 63.4 + 58.7 + (44.2×2.1) + (23.8×2.1) = 499.7 7 + 4.2 = 11.2 499.7 / 11.2 = 44.62 Only .52 off ==== And Stans Way ... 356.9/7 = 50.9857142857 × .32258 = 16.4469717143 68/2 = 34 × .67742 = 23.03228 = 39.48 You are off by 4.62 here... while im only off by .52... theres a reason for this. Your way is making the playoffs worth 2.1 times more, not just each game.. but the entire playoffs.... if a team only plays 1 playoff game, but has 9 regular season games... you are still making that 1 playoff game mean over twice what those 9 regular season games will... its the flaw in yours... that can get you close sometimes, but its technically not correct. My way I can make each individual game equal exactly what I want it to... This team was Norcross GA btw... Stanscript, Lets make a pretend scenario...so I can better explain why your way technically isnt right. Lets say, a team has 9 Bolded Regular Season games, and only 1 Bolded Playoff game because they lost... Your way would make that 1 single playoff game would mean twice as much as 9 Bolded Regular season games... Where as in my way... 1 Playoff game would be 2.1 of 11.1 ... or to put it into percentages, that playoff game would be 18.92% of their rating, where as each regular individual regular season game accounts for 9.009% of the rating ... (where as if all games were counted equal, and there were 10 total bolded game, each would be 10% of the total) This way the playoff game would be given the proper weight ... and if you wanted to do it the way you are... the proper way in this scenario would be ... 1 Playoff game Average × .1892 9 Regular season Avg x .8108 (.1892+.8108 = 1.000) If theres 2 Bolded Playoff games and 9 Bolded Regular Season games... itd be 4.2 + 9 = 13.2 ... 4.2 of 13.2 is 31.82% So if theres 11 total bolded games, 2 are playoff games and 9 regular season games.... the playoff games would be 31.82% of the final PR and the regular season games would be the other 68.18% So youd do 2 Playoff game average × .3182 9 Regular season avg × .6818 (This means each individual playoff game is worth 15.91%, while each individual regular season game is worth only 7.576%) Want me to make up some #s and try it? Does this all make sense to you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanscript Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 I see where you are coming from but that is still a bit of an outlier situation. If I get closer on 55% of the estimations and you get closer on 45% which might include a few outliers you'll claim victory.on them because that's how you look at things. We can agree to disagree on the better system. I'd rather be closer on teams that don't lose the first game of the playoffs and closer on teams that actually advance because they are generally higher ranked teams. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 57 minutes ago, stanscript said: I see where you are coming from but that is still a bit of an outlier situation. If I get closer on 55% of the estimations and you get closer on 45% which might include a few outliers you'll claim victory.on them because that's how you look at things. We can agree to disagree on the better system. I'd rather be closer on teams that don't lose the first game of the playoffs and closer on teams that actually advance because they are generally higher ranked teams. Its not about whos right the most... its about the way its done, lol. And what makes the most sense. More teams lose in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and the less playoff games played the higher chance Ill be right. Ill be right more often either way. You cant say 1 playoff game is worth 67 percent of a teams rating if theres 9 other bolded games. Thats not how it works, Im trying to show you the correct way. Be stubborn if you want to and dont listen... you were that way about state averages/state scaling... and guess what? I was right... the same way I am here... do as you like though, Im done trying to convince people that dont want to listen. Your way... no matter if theres 1 playoff game or 5... itll count for 67 percent of the rating... that is wrong... each individual game is given a 2.1 boost , so you do that individually. My way will ALWAYS be close, because its technically right... there are times you'll be close and there are times youll be COMPLETELY wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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