DarterBlue Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: @DarterBlue I know your busy soo when your free later can you Explain USO United States oil funds, is this one of those stocks to stay away from like the leverage??? It used to be +$90 this year and the $40 call for 2021 is extremely low Its objective is to track the price of West Texas Intermediate (domestic Oil contract, not North Sea). It uses futures to do so. It is not a leveraged fund X times, but uses futures to achieve its objective. If you want to know whether it's good vehicle, overlay a chart of West Texas Intermediate on the chart of USO. If they correlate more than 90% and you are bullish on oil, go for it. If the correlation is lower than 90%, then if you like oil, there are probably better vehicles to invest in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Its objective is to track the price of West Texas Intermediate (domestic Oil contract, not North Sea). It uses futures to do so. It is not a leveraged fund X times, but uses futures to achieve its objective. If you want to know whether it's good vehicle, overlay a chart of West Texas Intermediate on the chart of USO. If they correlate more than 90% and you are bullish on oil, go for it. If the correlation is lower than 90%, then if you like oil, there are probably better vehicles to invest in. Only reason I’m bullish on this is cause the contracts don’t expire for 9 months , so it gives the economy time to get its shit together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: Only reason I’m bullish on this is cause the contracts don’t expire for 9 months , so it gives the economy time to get its shit together Nine months is a long time. Things could be a lot better or a lot worse. Regardless of what some may say or predict, none of us really know what things will be like then. A lot of oil related companies have gone bankrupt. So, I guess that will impact supply. Maybe your thoughts will work out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 Don't worry twitter and share holder our incompetent FBI is on the case https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/us-fbi-is-leading-an-inquiry-into-the-twitter-hack-635320 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 https://thehill.com/policy/finance/507639-june-retail-sales-jump-75-percent-beating-expectations 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 Stocks closed broadly lower but well off the lows of the day. Volume declined by a decent margin indicating that there was not massive institutional selling. At the close, the range was from a loss of .33% on the NYSE to .73% on the NASDAQ. At day lows, the losses were at least twice as much. Losing stocks led by margins of 8-7 on the NYSE and 20-13 on the NASDAQ. These were not indicative of wholesale deterioration in the broad market. Moreover, the DOW Transportation and Utility indices closed in positive territory on the day, in a marked divergence. In bear moves, sometimes the Utilities will diverge from the broad indices. But never the Transports. So, what’s my overall take on the day? For a day in which the S&P was again turned back from breaking out beyond its early June highs, it did not seem very negative to me. In a sense, I view the day as being bullish in a stealthy sort of way. After the close, Netflix, despite what seemed like good earnings to me, was punished. Apparently, while top line revenues and new subscribers were great, the Street was not impressed by its margins. So, the stock tanked over 10% post market close which took the futures down with it. The futures, though, have since recovered. On a personal note, I was punished today losing $8,850 or 1.55%. I grossly underperformed the market. This was due to big losses in the S&P Options which were further punished in the fifteen-minute post market close based on Netflix’s disappointing earnings (this accounted for over $1,500 of the day’s loss total), SHOP and ZM. On the other side of the ledger, LOW was my only daily winner. LCII after yesterday’s big gains did well as it barely budged. The MDY had minimal losses while TEAM and TTD suffered losses of around the 2% range. This has been by far my worst week of the current campaign. I go into Friday down about $14,000 on the week. Unless, I have a monster up day tomorrow, I will record big losses on the week. So, how are my positions doing given the fact they have been battered this week? TEAM is in the most trouble. It has violated its fifty-day moving average. However, it is still in the basing pattern that began in May, as its attempted breakout last week was aborted this week. It would violate the basing pattern if it closed below $165. This is my exit point. I am willing to hold it and wait through a successful completion of its base. I am not willing to hold it if the weakness turns into a significant correction. That is not the game I play. As for SHOP, TTD and ZM: SHOP and ZM closed below their 21-day moving averages. Each has done so a couple times since bottoming in March. If they don’t bounce upward tomorrow or Monday, I will conclude that at a minimum each of them is going into new basing patterns. Either that or they have broken down. So, with respect to each, the question becomes: how much do I believe in each of them? In the case of ZM, I am a big believer and am willing to hold it through a normal basing pattern provided the market holds up. In the case of SHOP, I am less of a believer, and will be inclined to sell it, if it can’t get back above the 21-day by Monday at the latest. Regarding TTD, this one actually closed marginally above its 21-day moving average today. So, I will wait to see what it does tomorrow, before making further analysis. LCII and LOW are doing fine as I type this. MDY and the S&P Calls will probably follow the market's direction which as of now we are still in a basing pattern. I will be quicker to pull the plug on the latter since it's a wasting asset. I will do so, if we can't finally breakthrough to the upside by the middle of next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 Financial Futures, an Early Look: For the first time this week, the futures head into the open in relatively calm fashion. This is in contrast to last evening, when the Netflix earnings miss sent the futures solidly down. Overnight, both the Asian and European markets have been relatively calm, failing to follow the USA lower. This seems to have led to stability in our futures market. Of course, we are still a long way from the open with Housing starts and new Building Permits on the docket at 8:30 am. Those could certainly have an effect on the market open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 3 hours ago, DarterBlue said: Financial Futures, an Early Look: For the first time this week, the futures head into the open in relatively calm fashion. This is in contrast to last evening, when the Netflix earnings miss sent the futures solidly down. Overnight, both the Asian and European markets have been relatively calm, failing to follow the USA lower. This seems to have led to stability in our futures market. Of course, we are still a long way from the open with Housing starts and new Building Permits on the docket at 8:30 am. Those could certainly have an effect on the market open. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-07-17/us-home-construction-jumps-173-in-june%3fcontext=amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 @HSFBfan are you out of the stock market for good or temporary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said: @HSFBfan are you out of the stock market for good or temporary Probably for good. But things could change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Probably for good. But things could change Why? Not saying I agree that you should or not, but want to know why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: Why? Not saying I agree that you should or not, but want to know why? Too much involvement. No control of what a stock does. Sometimes no rhyme or reason as to why its doing what it does. You have people that short stocks and are purposely driving it down so they can put their buy in and win on both ends. Too much manipulation. Also when the stories came out about how our government has so much money in stocks and than add that to the news stories of we need to close down main street so we drive people to the big box stores because they have stock it really turned me off from the market. I guess I'm just more of a main street guy and not a wall street guy I rather stay with the horses and the bullshit that comes with that sport. One of the top trainers in the world just got suspended for giving his horses an illegal drug. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 The need for a Trading System: I have stressed before that if one is to trade successfully, a systematic approach is necessary. Such approach is what I define as a system. Below is the CAN SLIM method developed by William O'Neal founder of Investors Daily. I have presented it as it has similarities to what I do. For beginners, it may help if you delve into this with a view to developing your own system. The seven criteria that comprise CANSLIM are as follows: C - Current quarterly earnings per share has increased sharply from the same quarters' earnings reported in the prior year. Generally investors using CANSLIM want EPS growth of over 20%, but the higher the better. A - Annual earnings increases over the last five years. Here again the annual EPS growth is ideally over 20% over the last 3-5 years. N - New products, management, or new events/information that pushes the company's stock to new highs. This type of headline news can cause short-term excitement, propelling a surge of optimism within the market and subsequent price appreciation. S - Scarce supply coupled with strong demand for a stock creates excess demand. This is an environment in which stock prices can soar. Companies acquiring (re-purchasing) their own stock reduces market supply and can indicate their expectation of increased demand, along with insider confidence in the firm. L - Leading not laggard stocks are preferred within the same industry. Use IBD's relative strength rating (RSI) as a guide. The RSI ranges from zero to 100. A RSI indication above 80 suggests a buying opportunity (bullish), while below 70 signifies it should be sold (bearish). I - Pick stocks, which have institutional sponsorship by a few institutions with recent above average performance. For example, this could be a fairly recently public company, still supported by a small handful of well known private equity firms. Be cautious of stocks that are over owned by institutions as you want to get in before the big money is fully invested. M - Determining market direction by reviewing market averages daily. A market average measures the overall price level of a given market, as defined by a specified group of stocks, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. CAN SLIM stocks tend to be over-performers in bull markets. If market conditions are not favorable, CAN SLIM investors stay on the sidelines to preserve capital. There you go. I neither endorse nor trash CAN SLIM. I present it as a guide for new traders to develop their own. Since the developer has publicized it, I do him no harm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Too much involvement. No control of what a stock does. Sometimes no rhyme or reason as to why its doing what it does. You have people that short stocks and are purposely driving it down so they can put their buy in and win on both ends. Too much manipulation. Also when the stories came out about how our government has so much money in stocks and than add that to the news stories of we need to close down main street so we drive people to the big box stores because they have stock it really turned me off from the market. I guess I'm just more of a main street guy and not a wall street guy I rather stay with the horses and the bullshit that comes with that sport. One of the top trainers in the world just got suspended for giving his horses an illegal drug. Please see my post on using a system immediately above. Having a winning system helps in filtering out the noise that is reflected in the markets daily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 Just now, DarterBlue said: Please see my post on using a system immediately above. Having a winning system helps in filtering out the noise that is reflected in the markets daily. I just saw it Like i explained its too highly manipulated. I dont have the funds to make any significant gains. It was fun for a few months but after a while the nostalgia wore off. I did it. Its done. U move on. I dont stick with things for too long One thing I love about horse racing you can potentially 30x ur money in 1 minute. You dont have to wait weeks months etc I also found it completely ironic that people bitch about the rich and such and ill use jeff bezos as an example. I dont agree with him politically but the point being people hate that he's this big rich dude but they run everyday to amazon and buy stuff making him richer. I was in Jetblue norwegian couple ETFs etc. But im not waiting 3 years for jetblue and such to bounce back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Please see my post on using a system immediately above. Having a winning system helps in filtering out the noise that is reflected in the markets daily. One of these days when I’m off I’m gonna have to go back to page one and start printing out all these posts about how to trade 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: I just saw it Like i explained its too highly manipulated. I dont have the funds to make any significant gains. It was fun for a few months but after a while the nostalgia wore off. I did it. Its done. U move on. I dont stick with things for too long One thing I love about horse racing you can potentially 30x ur money in 1 minute. You dont have to wait weeks months etc I also found it completely ironic that people bitch about the rich and such and ill use jeff bezos as an example. I dont agree with him politically but the point being people hate that he's this big rich dude but they run everyday to amazon and buy stuff making him richer. I was in Jetblue norwegian couple ETFs etc. But im not waiting 3 years for jetblue and such to bounce back Fair enough. You have to do what's right for you. I have done both horses and stock in my lifetime. I found stocks far more lucrative. But my experience may not be reflective of others. Good luck with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I just saw it Like i explained its too highly manipulated. I dont have the funds to make any significant gains. It was fun for a few months but after a while the nostalgia wore off. I did it. Its done. U move on. I dont stick with things for too long One thing I love about horse racing you can potentially 30x ur money in 1 minute. You dont have to wait weeks months etc I also found it completely ironic that people bitch about the rich and such and ill use jeff bezos as an example. I dont agree with him politically but the point being people hate that he's this big rich dude but they run everyday to amazon and buy stuff making him richer. I was in Jetblue norwegian couple ETFs etc. But im not waiting 3 years for jetblue and such to bounce back Here ya go, this guy does some really good DD on his work , https://mobile.twitter.com/StanTradingMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Fair enough. You have to do what's right for you. I have done both horses and stock in my lifetime. I found stocks far more lucrative. But my experience may not be reflective of others. Good luck with it. Stocks will always be more lucrative there significantly more money involved in it. Billions of dollars in the market There's a fraction of that in horse racing. Its not even a comparison It's just dumb to wait and wait for a return on your investment. And other than buying and selling you have 0 control of what it is doing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: Here ya go, this guy does some really good DD on his work , https://mobile.twitter.com/StanTradingMan Seems like a good account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 I do have a 403B with some funds in there. It has gone up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Seems like a good account. He doesn’t do premiums, or discords, no subscriptions, all he does is tweet and do free lives , pretty decent guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said: He doesn’t do premiums, or discords, all he does is tweet and do free lives , pretty decent guy Thats cool. Right now all I keep reading about is the impending burst of the market bubble but every number that comes out seems to defy that argument Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: It's just dumb to wait and wait for a return on your investment. And other than buying and selling you have 0 control of what it is doing Actually, since you are not riding the horse, you have no control there either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 17, 2020 Report Share Posted July 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: Actually, since you are not riding the horse, you have no control there either. But I understand that the bet i put in made the most amount of logical sense. If i get beat by a horse that I believe had no business winning at least i can tell the jockey to fuck off lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.