The Stock Market

[HSFBfan]

Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue one of the dudes I follow had a melt down yesterday, tweeting Anybody that shorts stocks will be immediately banned 

 

why is that frowned upon?

Wtf!!!!! People short all the time 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Wtf!!!!! People short all the time 

That’s what I thought, I’m just curious if there’s a certain stigma towards shorts

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

That’s what I thought, I’m just curious if there’s a certain stigma towards shorts

Well when u short your hoping the stock goes down

I think and I could be completely wrong that the majority of people always want the market to go higher since their retirement pension etc are tied into the market 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

I really need one of those days where @GardenStateBaller shows up and post some stock records gifs

[DarterBlue]

21 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue one of the dudes I follow had a melt down yesterday, tweeting Anybody that shorts stocks will be immediately blocked

 

why is that frowned upon?

When you short stock, you are creating artificial supply. Why? Because you are borrowing the stock from someone who owns the stock in street name with your broker. So a lot of shorting will put pressure on the stock's price as additional supply comes on the market. 

Personally, I no longer short stock. If I don't like it, I will buy puts. But most of my puts are on the ETFs of the indices: MDY, SPY, DIA, IWN, SOXX, etc. Why? I only short when I don't like the market. I don't short in bull markets. I figure if I am right and we have a weak market, I can make lots of money off the indices going down. 

When you short individual stocks, your theoretical losses are infinite. I remember a colleague of mine shorted Marvell Technologies at $85 back in the first few years of this century. Well, he was right, because six months later, the stock traded in the single digits. Unfortunately for him, before it got there it went up past $150. Needless to say, he covered the short in the $100 range before the stock collapsed. If you are going to short stocks, your timing better be precise. 

[DarterBlue]

19 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Well when u short your hoping the stock goes down

I think and I could be completely wrong that the majority of people always want the market to go higher since their retirement pension etc are tied into the market 

Not me. I don't care too much whether the market goes up or down. What I want is a trend. If I get a trend, I will make money up or down. 

[HSFBfan]

14 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Not me. I don't care too much whether the market goes up or down. What I want is a trend. If I get a trend, I will make money up or down. 

Like i said I could be completely wrong but I think most people want their retirement and pensions to go higher 

[HSFBfan]

13 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

#winning 

I'm telling everyone that the dow will be 35000 around November 3

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Like i said I could be completely wrong but I think most people want their retirement and pensions to go higher 

I am not saying you are wrong. I did not pan your post. It's just that for me, all I need is a trend. Included in my trading capital is a good portion of my retirement money (IRA). I treat it the same as the individual accounts. I go long, I go short, it's all the same to me. I just need a trend. By needing a trend, what I mean is for the market to go in a particular direction a minimum of a couple months. I am not a day trader, so I need to have the market go in a direction at least for several weeks. The more pronounced the direction, the greater the odds I will make good money. I am most frustrated when markets go neither up nor down. For then, you need to be a superior stock picker. I am a decent stock picker. But if I get a trend with it, then that's where the big money is made.  

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

I am not saying you are wrong. I did not pan your post. It's just that for me, all I need is a trend. Included in my trading capital is a good portion of my retirement money (IRA). I treat it the same as the individual accounts. I go long, I go short, it's all the same to me. I just need a trend. By needing a trend, what I mean is for the market to go in a particular direction a minimum of a couple months. I am not a day trader, so I need to have the market go in a direction at least for several weeks. The more pronounced the direction, the greater the odds I will make good money. I am most frustrated when markets go neither up nor down. For then, you need to be a superior stock picker. I am a decent stock picker. But if I get a trend with it, then that's where the big money is made.  

You just have a different strategy and goal

I dont think either way is bad but if I'm putting my money in a 401k I want the market to go as high as possible 

[HSFBfan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2020/07/23/why-boeing-believes-it-will-win-the-competition-to-supply-heavy-lift-helicopters-to-germany-and-israel/amp/

[HSFBfan]

https://www.miragenews.com/boeing-secures-aircraft-finance-germany-order-for-two-737-800-boeing-converted-freighters/

[HSFBfan]

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/23/2066709/0/en/The-U-S-Global-Jets-ETF-JETS-Is-Now-Available-to-Trade-at-Citi-the-U-S-Global-GO-GOLD-and-Precious-Metal-Miners-ETF-GOAU-Closes-at-Record-High-for-Third-Straight-Trading-Day.html

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed mostly lower on higher volume today. After opening mixed, with secondary stocks being relatively strong, bears began to get the better of things around noon when the two NASDAQ indices sold off sharply. The DOW and S&P hung tough for another hour. But joined the NASDAQ around 1 pm. The indices sold off till the final fifteen minutes but bounced off day lows at that time. At the close, the range was from a small gain of .12% on the MID Cap index to a loss of 2.67% on the NASDAQ 100. It was noteworthy that the MID and Russell which had been the strongest indices from the open, managed to close in slightly positive territory on what can best be described as a day of obvious selling. Earlier, each had been up well over 1% and they held up even when all the headline indices were swooning, before finally succumbing to the selling pressure mid-afternoon. Because of the strength in the secondary stocks, the advance/decline statistics (market breadth) was not as bad as one would expect with 15 down for every 14 up on the NYSE and 20-13 negative for the NASDAQ. Usually on a day like this, there would be a 3-1 ratio to the negative. So, what are my thoughts on the day? There were obvious negatives, but there were some positives too. The negatives: strong selling in the larger stocks, particular the market leading NASDAQ types; a big intra-day reversal in TSLA which reported very good earnings after yesterday’s close. The stock was up 5% at the open but closed down 5%; and, failure to clearly establish consecutive positive days, this week. Offsetting the negatives were: The NASDAQ bounced off its 21-day moving average, but closed at it. It did not seriously undercut it yet. The 21-day has served as support for the NASDAQ which has seldom been below it for any length of time; and, the fact that secondary stocks gave ground grudgingly. When you put these all together, the bull run still seems to be intact, but does appear tired.

 On a personal note, I was rocked by volatility today. Late morning, I was up over $5,000 and at that stage all my positions were in positive territory on the day. Then the selling came, and at day lows I was down over $16,000, a high to low swing of about $21,000. At the close, I lost $13,310 or 2.27%, basically mirroring the NASDAQ. Seven of my eight positions ended in the red, with the S&P Options, and TTD taking the hardest hits. These were followed by ZM and SHOP which lost in the 3%+ range. While TEAM, LOW and LCII had losses in the 1% range. In fact, TEAM held up well till late in the day before finally giving up its day gains while both LOW and LCII recorded 52-week highs before selling off. Finally, MDY was my sole winner on the day. So how do my holdings look technically? SHOP is the worst, as it has once again clearly violated its 21-day moving average. If it has a bad day tomorrow it will be sold before the close. TTD and ZM undercut this moving average, but closed at it. So, tomorrow they need to go higher or they will be in the same hot water as SHOP. TEAM, LOW and LCII, as well as the MDY seem to be in good shape. The SPY is also, for now, in good shape. But the options are a wasting asset and time is getting short. If it becomes clear that the S&P is not trending higher but is just marking time, this position will also need to be sold soon.

 

 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

12 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks closed mostly lower on higher volume today. After opening mixed, with secondary stocks being relatively strong, bears began to get the better of things around noon when the two NASDAQ indices sold off sharply. The DOW and S&P hung tough for another hour. But joined the NASDAQ around 1 pm. The indices sold off till the final fifteen minutes but bounced off day lows at that time. At the close, the range was from a small gain of .12% on the MID Cap index to a loss of 2.67% on the NASDAQ 100. It was noteworthy that the MID and Russell which had been the strongest indices from the open, managed to close in slightly positive territory on what can best be described as a day of obvious selling. Earlier, each had been up well over 1% and they held up even when all the headline indices were swooning, before finally succumbing to the selling pressure mid-afternoon. Because of the strength in the secondary stocks, the advance/decline statistics (market breadth) was not as bad as one would expect with 15 down for every 14 up on the NYSE and 20-13 negative for the NASDAQ. Usually on a day like this, there would be a 3-1 ratio to the negative. So, what are my thoughts on the day? There were obvious negatives, but there were some positives too. The negatives: strong selling in the larger stocks, particular the market leading NASDAQ types; a big intra-day reversal in TSLA which reported very good earnings after yesterday’s close. The stock was up 5% at the open but closed down 5%; and, failure to clearly establish consecutive positive days, this week. Offsetting the negatives were: The NASDAQ bounced off its 21-day moving average, but closed at it. It did not seriously undercut it yet. The 21-day has served as support for the NASDAQ which has seldom been below it for any length of time; and, the fact that secondary stocks gave ground grudgingly. When you put these all together, the bull run still seems to be intact, but does appear tired.

 On a personal note, I was rocked by volatility today. Late morning, I was up over $5,000 and at that stage all my positions were in positive territory on the day. Then the selling came, and at day lows I was down over $16,000, a high to low swing of about $21,000. At the close, I lost $13,310 or 2.27%, basically mirroring the NASDAQ. Seven of my eight positions ended in the red, with the S&P Options, and TTD taking the hardest hits. These were followed by ZM and SHOP which lost in the 3%+ range. While TEAM, LOW and LCII had losses in the 1% range. In fact, TEAM held up well till late in the day before finally giving up its day gains while both LOW and LCII recorded 52-week highs before selling off. Finally, MDY was my sole winner on the day. So how do my holdings look technically. SHOP is the worst, as it has once again clearly violated its 21-day moving average. If it has a bad day tomorrow it will be sold before the close. TTD and ZM undercut this moving average, but closed at it. So, tomorrow they need to go higher or they will be in the same hot water as SHOP. TEAM, LOW and LCII, as well as the MDY seem to be in good shape. The SPY is also, for now, in good shape. But the options are a wasting asset and time is getting short. If it becomes clear that the S&P is not trending higher but is just marking time, this position will also need to be sold soon.

 

 

Is it u lost 13 k completely? Or there’s a chance for it to rebound and make your money back??

 

One  of the Twitter guys had a very crushing day in the market today 

 

[DarterBlue]

11 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Is it u lost 13 k completely? Or there’s a chance for it to rebound and make your money back??

 

One  of the Twitter guys had a very crushing day in the market today 

 

As a trader, I mark my positions to market at the end of each day. To me a loss is a loss realized or unrealized. If I am worse off at the close than I was at the open, I have lost money, full stop! The same goes for gains, realized or unrealized.

But to answer the question, I did not sell anything today, so all the positions could rebound tomorrow. And, I am still profitable on everything I currently own. Just remember, though, if you are a trader, all prices are ephemeral. They constantly change. As such big losses can become bigger losses, or they could end up being gains. The trick is not to watch the profits or losses per se, but to each day evaluate the technical condition of that which you own. If a position goes perpendicular, it may be time to sell and book your profits. Why? Perpendicular moves are not sustainable and usually end in steep reversals. If it breaks down technically, you sell and take the loss or the reduced profit if it had gone up before it broke down. Too many people focus on the profit and loss and ignore the technical condition of what they own. 

Regarding the dude that lost the $493,000, unless his account is in excess of $10,000,000 he had a very bad day. He is either taking on too much risk, has a very large account, or he had a very, very bad day!

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Stocks low low low today but got a $50 referral bonus, I’ll take it

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed broadly lower on lower volume across the board. At the close, the losses ranged from .39% on the NYSE to 1.52% on the Russell 2000. Losing stocks led by margins of 19-10 on the NYSE and 2.6-1 on the NASDAQ. For a negative day, breadth was not particularly bad. On the day, most indices closed in the middle of the day’s range. However, both the DOW and Russell closed near day lows. given there is not much similarity between these two indices, their close was curiously interesting. On the day, both the DOW and S&P came near to but did not breach their respective 21-day moving averages. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, breached its 21-day, but closed right at it. The NASDAQ in particular, has consistently been above this moving average during the Covid-19 bull leg, bouncing off it three or four times on the way up. Although breached this time, if Monday were to be a positive day, it would be consistent with what it has been doing and we could be headed higher over at least the first half of next week. If it loses ground Monday, then we would be viewing a new scenario for the first time in this bull leg. So, I view Monday as critical since the NASDAQ has been the General leading the troops higher in this bull leg.

 On a personal note, I had my second bad day in a row, losing $6,709, or 1.17%. So, a week which started with being up just over $21,000 last Monday with Tuesday and Wednesday essentially cancelling themselves out, ended with back to back bad days that essentially cancelled out Monday. When the dust cleared, I was up $618 on the week or about .1%. Much less than my last weekly wage, but a win is a win, I suppose. Today, three of my positions were up and five down. The biggest losers were the S&P Options and LCII. Another bad day Monday, and I will get rid of the SPY Options because they are a wasting asset and I have no intention of holding them through another correction. The other three losing positions, TEAM, ZM and MDY were relatively modest and my opinion has not changed on them. For now, they are all still holds. The winning positions were: TTD, SHOP and LOW. All thee gained very modest amounts. Of the three, SHOP is closest to being sold. My opinion of these three remains exactly as it was at Thursday’s close.

[imaGoodBoyNow]

for any newbies on here, I know Darter posted what these are somewhere in the thousands of posts on here

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue they say volume is an indicator of the stock going up or down, but how come I’ve seen stocks shoot to the moon with only 200k volume

[HSFBfan]

24 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue they say volume is an indicator of the stock going up or down, but how come I’ve seen stocks shoot to the moon with only 200k volume

Whats their avg volume

[DarterBlue]

7 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue they say volume is an indicator of the stock going up or down, but how come I’ve seen stocks shoot to the moon with only 200k volume

What's important is the extent to which volume increases. A stock falling on very heavy volume (volume that is at least 1.5 times average but usually much more) is usually a negative sign. It is often accompanied by news such as an earnings miss. But a stock going down on that kind of volume over several consecutive days, with no news is perhaps the most negative of all. 

Likewise, a stock going up on significantly rising volume is usually very bullish. 

Why is higher volume important? When volume increases significantly, it means that the big boys (Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, etc., etc.) are accumulating (buying) or distributing (selling) the stock. Now this does not mean they are right, many of them are actually very average and some are not very competent at all. However, it tends to propel the stock up or down for extended periods. Why? Because it takes big institutions many days (sometimes months) to accumulate (buy) or distribute (sell) their stock. If they did it all in a day, they would create big gaps to the upside or downside, and they prefer not to do that as it affects their average price too much. 

This is the advantage good old DarterBlue (and poor people like him) has over the big boys. For I tend to not buy positions bigger than around $50,000 maximum based on the size of my trading capital and my risk management techniques. Thus, I can do all my buying in one block without affecting price by more than a few cents at most since I don't trade stocks that average less than 75,000 shares a day no matter how compelling their fundamental and technical picture seems. 

But the reason a move on big increased volume is bullish or bearish is that the big boys will continue moving the stock usually for at least several weeks. Your job is to go along for the ride and benefit from their sloth. 

[DarterBlue]

The Week Ahead: The upcoming week is a very significant one for the Covid-19 bull market. There are several factors that will affect it. How the market responds will speak volumes to the durability and sustainability of the bull. 

1. The market is at a critical inflection point. The leading index in this bull has been far and away the NASDAQ. It closed Friday at its 21-day moving average after breaching it intraday. Each time it has reached this level since the April rally took off, it has bounced off successfully. It should be interesting to see if it can do so once again. Should it fail, it probably means that at a minimum, the NASDAQ goes into a consolidation, or worse, a correction of indeterminate price and time.
2. A large number of stocks report earnings this week. Some of the notables are: AAPL, GOOG, FB, V, MCD, PFE, SBUX, SHW, my own SHOP, BA, QCOM, AMZN, TSLA, etc. The quality of these earnings and how the market responds to them will largely drive the market higher or lower.
3. Several key economic data are set to be released. Second quarter GDP, first pass, is due Thursday before the bell as are unemployment statistics. Existing home sales are due Wednesday at 10 am.
4. The FED meets this week and will release its policy statement on Tuesday around 2 pm. While no change is expected in interest rates, the tone of the statement will no doubt impact the markets.

I think it is safe to say that this may be the most consequential week so far of the new bull. Should it rise to the challenge, we will likely to see new highs continue through the rest of summer even in the face of the pandemic disaster the USA is dealing with. This has been a remarkable year both for the markets, as well as for the economy and American society in general. The show ahead this week should be very interesting. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

The Week Ahead: The upcoming week is a very significant one for the Covid-19 bull market. There are several factors that will affect it. How the market responds will speak volumes to the durability and sustainability of the bull. 

1. The market is at a critical inflection point. The leading index in this bull has been far and away the NASDAQ. It closed Friday at its 21-day moving average after breaching it intraday. Each time it has reached this level since the April rally took off, it has bounced off successfully. It should be interesting to see if it can do so once again. Should it fail, it probably means that at a minimum, the NASDAQ goes into a consolidation, or worse, a correction of indeterminate price and time.
2. A large number of stocks report earnings this week. Some of the notables are: AAPL, GOOG, FB, V, MCD, PFE, SBUX, SHW, my own SHOP, BA, QCOM, AMZN, TSLA, etc. The quality of these earnings and how the market responds to them will largely drive the market higher or lower.
3. Several key economic data are set to be released. Second quarter GDP, first pass, is due Thursday before the bell as are unemployment statistics. Existing home sales are due Wednesday at 10 am.
4. The FED meets this week and will release its policy statement on Tuesday around 2 pm. While no change is expected in interest rates, the tone of the statement will no doubt impact the markets.

I think it is safe to say that this may be the most consequential week so far of the new bull. Should it rise to the challenge, we will likely to see new highs continue through the rest of summer even in the face of the pandemic disaster the USA is dealing with. This has been a remarkable year both for the markets, as well as for the economy and American society in general. The show ahead this week should be very interesting. 

Where did you learn all this shit man, self taught? You take classes somewhere??

 

dont understand why 99.7 % of schools don’t teach you about the stock market 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Where did you learn all this shit man, self taught? You take classes somewhere??

 

dont understand why 99.7 % of schools don’t teach you about the stock market 

I had a basis leaving graduate school as I dual majored in Finance and Accounting. But after that, it was all of the following:

1. Trial and error.

2. Learning from my mistakes.

3. Containing my ego.

4. Reading books written by, and interviews conducted with, successful traders.

5. Developing a trading system compatible with who I am.

6. Learning to respect risk (part of the trading system).

7. Observing how the market traded in different periods (including looking at market charts all the way back to the early 1950s).

8. Learning to distinguish between the possible and the probable (anything is possible, but how likely is it?).

9. Learning to respect the market.

10. Doing my market work each and every day including weekends. This is especially important when actively trading but should still not be ignored even when you are in cash. You will miss important market turns if you don't do your homework. The work should consist of monitoring and updating for the core elements of your trading plan. For me this involves: A. Updating my indicators. B. Listening to a show conducted by a trader/money manager I respect (I use this not for advice per se, but to see how far his views diverge from mine). C. Looking at charts of everything I currently own, as well as everything currently on my watch list. D. Looking at the current earnings calendar two days out. E. Updating my daily diary. The diary is an important record of what the market did, how I did in relation to the market, and my thoughts on the day's action. At the end of each month, I go over each day for the month, to get an overall impression on the state of the market and my emotional state with regards to it. 

As you can see, though I am an amateur (I don't manage other peoples' money) I try to maintain a professional approach to what I do. I feel that is the only way to beat the market on a risk/reward basis consistently. 

Trading markets is a journey and not a destination. So, you never come to an end even after a lifetime of doing this. Markets in different time periods have similarities but are never the same. Therefore, what works in one is not guaranteed to work in another even if superficially they appear to be the same.