Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Trafalgar predicted that trump would win the blue wall states in 2016 so to see trump +1 in Wisconsin is very good Trafalgar is a C- poll and didn't even poll Wisconsin in 2016. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 If the Dems were that confident they would not be talking conceding the race strategies Why would that even cross their minds?? Internal polling must be horrible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, concha said: Joe Biden had a colossal 24.6% lead in the RCP Betting Average on August 1st. It is now at 9.3%. Just in the last week it is down over 5 points. Apparently betting men weren't very impressed by the DNC. Trump was +10 in the betting odds in May. Hillary Clinton was +60 (!) on election day in 2016. So what you're saying is that the worst predictor of outcomes, ever, are human beings laying bets. Gotcha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/ Cumulative battleground polls are complete shit. Remember the CNN poll that had Trump +7 a few months ago? You creamed yourself. I laughed. Now you're bragging about Trump only being down by about 4 points. You will miss the irony here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Trump is doing better against biden than he was doing against HRC at the same point No, he's not. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/ And what's most important for the last 70 days or so is that the number of undecideds in these polls are far less than 2016. People have made up their mind. And Biden is at 50% in the RCP average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Trump was +10 in the betting odds in May. Hillary Clinton was +60 (!) on election day in 2016. So what you're saying is that the worst predictor of outcomes, ever, are human beings laying bets. Gotcha. The NYT gave Clinton an 85% chance of winning the election on Nov 8th, 2016 based on state and national polling. 538 gave the Hildabeast a 71.4% chance of victory. Polls, betting... frankly none are worth a damned thing at this point. I view the betting odds as simply showing this thing is far from a done deal for Slow Joe and Willie Brown's Chew Toy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, concha said: The NYT gave Clinton an 85% chance of winning the election on Nov 8th, 2016 based on state and national polling. 538 gave the Hildabeast a 71.4% chance of victory. And neither was incorrect. You just don't understand percentages. The betting odds are just people scrambling to lay money down. They rely on polls like everyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, concha said: I view the betting odds as simply showing this thing is far from a done deal for Slow Joe and Willie Brown's Chew Toy. Really going out on a limb there to claim that the election isn't over on August 26th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: Really going out on a limb there to claim that the election isn't over on August 26th. Sometimes you just have to yell damn the torpedoes and go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: And neither was incorrect. You just don't understand percentages. The betting odds are just people scrambling to lay money down. They rely on polls like everyone else. They weren't necessarily incorrect if you look at meaningless national vote totals, but they had information at the state levels, which is where it matters. This information proved incorrect and thus their percentages were wrong. 538, for example, was showing odds of the Harpy winning certain key swing states by percentages in the high 70s and low 80s. We all know what happened. In the end, predicting the winner comes down to getting accurate polling in just a handful of states. Literally every single poll was wrong in Wisconsin. The C- SurveyMonkey poll was closest. The only one to get Michigan right was the C- Trafalgar poll. Just two polls called Pennsylvania. There's that pesky C- Trafalgar poll again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, concha said: They weren't necessarily incorrect if you look at meaningless national vote totals, but they had information at the state levels, which is where it matters. This information proved incorrect and thus their percentages were wrong. 538, for example, was showing odds of the Harpy winning certain key swing states by percentages in the high 70s and low 80s. We all know what happened. In the end, predicting the winner comes down to getting accurate polling in just a handful of states. Literally every single poll was wrong in Wisconsin. The C- SurveyMonkey poll was closest. The only one to get Michigan right was the C- Trafalgar poll. Just two polls called Pennsylvania. There's that pesky C- Trafalgar poll again... The venerable Marquette poll had her winning Wisconsin by 7 (and supposedly is never wrong) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Until I see real evidence that Trump’s rural base is abandoning him, I will believe the Rust Belt states are going to be close. The Democrats are betting Scranton Joe can peel some of those away, but Joe ain’t been “from” Scranton for a long, long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bormio said: Until I see real evidence that Trump’s rural base is abandoning him, I will believe the Rust Belt states are going to be close. The Democrats are betting Scranton Joe can peel some of those away, but Joe ain’t been “from” Scranton for a long, long time. I saw something that said scranton is trending red Joe Biden's Scranton backyard is slowly growing more Republican https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/joe-bidens-scranton-backyard-is-slowly-growing-more-republican%3f_amp=true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 This rioting is beginning to affect the polls. Democrat leaders are really afraid to get a good handle on it. Evers sent 250 National Guard. Kenosha asked for 1500. Kenosha is Democratic, but I imagine people are not thrilled about burning buildings and armed conflict in the streets. The longer this is allowed to fester, the more it becomes an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: This rioting is beginning to affect the polls. Democrat leaders are really afraid to get a good handle on it. Evers sent 250 National Guard. Kenosha asked for 1500. Kenosha is Democratic, but I imagine people are not thrilled about burning buildings and armed conflict in the streets. The longer this is allowed to fester, the more it becomes an issue. The democrats can't please progressives and moderates. If they back the cops they piss off the progressives and keep them home in november. If they don't back the cops the moderates who are older and have the money get pissed off and vote trump 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, HSFBfan said: The democrats can't please progressives and moderates. If they back the cops they piss off the progressives and keep them home in november. If they don't back the cops the moderates who are older and have the money get pissed off and vote trump The point is the rioting is wrong and should not be tolerated. It is the responsibility of the state and local governments to stop this. They refuse. This is not protest, this is criminal activity. People want it stopped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: The point is the rioting is wrong and should not be tolerated. It is the responsibility of the state and local governments to stop this. They refuse. This is not protest, this is criminal activity. People want it stopped. They can't. They got in office off the votes of the progressive types. Now they have to sit there on a sinking ship as their cities burn in the hopes that the progressive vote is there for them in November Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 hour ago, concha said: They weren't necessarily incorrect if you look at meaningless national vote totals, but they had information at the state levels, which is where it matters. This information proved incorrect and thus their percentages were wrong. So I charge you with not understanding percentages and then you respond by proving that you don't understand percentages. They weren't wrong with their percentages at the state levels either. Trump always had about a 1/3 chance to flip those Midwestern states if everything broke in his favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 57 minutes ago, Bormio said: Until I see real evidence that Trump’s rural base is abandoning him, I will believe the Rust Belt states are going to be close. The Democrats are betting Scranton Joe can peel some of those away, but Joe ain’t been “from” Scranton for a long, long time. No, they're betting on facts like Biden being at 50% and the number of undecideds being more than half what they were ion 2016. They're also betting on the fact that Biden is leading with voters who dislike both candidates (Trump won those voters in 2016) and is also winning with seniors who also supported Trump in 2016. See, facts vs. feelings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bormio said: This rioting is beginning to affect the polls. Something that you just made up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 27 minutes ago, Bormio said: This is not protest, this is criminal activity. You criticize the protesting too and therefore nothing ever gets done. So the fact that you have a zero tolerance policy now is funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: Something that you just made up. See Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon admitting this very thing last night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: You criticize the protesting too and therefore nothing ever gets done. So the fact that you have a zero tolerance policy now is funny. So they go hand in hand and you are willing to tolerate rioting. At least you are honest - unlike Democrat pols Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bormio said: See Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon admitting this very thing last night So I say that you made something up about polling and then you respond with no polling. You just point at two TV commentators who aren't pollsters. Bang up job as usual, Dr. Quack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: So they go hand in hand and you are willing to tolerate rioting. At least you are honest - unlike Democrat pols No, I understand that violent clashes will inevitably happen when you ignore peaceful protests for so long. But you don't care because it benefits you either way. You can ignore claims of systemic racism and then when it gets violent you can just point and claim that it's unacceptable. You never have to change anything about your life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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