Slotback Right Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Oh My God! Please stop! I 'm begging you guys. Please stop! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 In the last two weeks, Trump's approval in the Rasmussen poll has gone from -4 to +3 to even to -6. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Per RCP, Trump is doing better on average in the top battleground states versus Biden than he was at this same time in 2016 against the Harpy. And the current trend is in Trump's favor, with Biden's lead having dropped by 2.7% over the last month. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Trafalgar poll. Michigan has flipped Trump +2 James +1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 59 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Trafalgar poll. Michigan has flipped Trump +2 James +1 In an election where minorities may slide slightly towards Trump, Biden needs as many white votes as possible to win in the Rust Belt. And yet may be alienating them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: In an election where minorities may slide slightly towards Trump, Biden needs as many white votes as possible to win in the Rust Belt. And yet may be alienating them. This was the poll who had trump winning the rust belt in 2016 I trust it. Obv were months away and things change but can trump build on the lead With biden hiding in his house can trump hit the pavement and get the ground game working again I think it's trump to lose. But hell have to work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bormio said: In an election where minorities may slide slightly towards Trump, Biden needs as many white votes as possible to win in the Rust Belt. And yet may be alienating them. Or you're just looking at the one poll that makes you feel good. It's funny watching the "polls are meaningless!" crowd quickly run to a polls thread to tout a single poll simply because it agrees with them. Two days ago another C- likely voter poll had Biden +6 in Michigan. Biden is +7.2 in the aggregate. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: This was the poll who had trump winning the rust belt in 2016 I trust it. Obv were months away and things change but can trump build on the lead With biden hiding in his house can trump hit the pavement and get the ground game working again I think it's trump to lose. But hell have to work This poll is an outlier among Michigan polls, but they say they are better at identifying shy Trump voters. But Michigan is the most liberal of the big 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: This poll is an outlier among Michigan polls, but they say they are better at identifying shy Trump voters. There's no evidence that they actually exist. 2016 can be explained by normal polling error. One time is not a trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Or you're just looking at the one poll that makes you feel good. It's funny watching the "polls are meaningless!" crowd quickly run to a polls thread to tout a single poll simply because it agrees with them. Two days ago another C- likely voter poll had Biden +6 in Michigan. Biden is +7.2 in the aggregate. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/ I was unaware of the Michigan poll when I wrote this. But Biden is going to have to do better among white voters in the Rust Belt, maybe more than they realize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: There's no evidence that they actually exist. 2016 can be explained by normal polling error. One time is not a trend. Bloomberg has an article today suggesting they do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: This poll is an outlier among Michigan polls, but they say they are better at identifying shy Trump voters. But Michigan is the most liberal of the big 3. Its an outlier but it was correct. Also when looking at polls throw away any registered voter polls. Absolute garbage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 there 10% of voters who are still undecided on avg across the country In 2016 there was 20% So the window is tighter to convince people Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: Bloomberg has an article today suggesting they do Bloomberg said it so it must be true. 👌 The data points to a simpler explanation: there was a large number of undecideds on election day and those who disliked both candidates decided to pull the lever for Trump over Clinton. The undecideds are half as much in 2020 and Biden is polling ahead of Trump on those who dislike both candidates. This is actually demonstrable while claiming that Trafalgar is a magical pollster is not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Michigan polling is historically dicey. When it goes GOP, it is usually late. They missed Reagan’s surge in 1980 as well. If Trump is close now, the Democrats should be worried. And he does not need Michigan most likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: there 10% of voters who are still undecided on avg across the country In 2016 there was 20% So the window is tighter to convince people It's even less than that. It's about 7 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: Michigan polling is historically dicey. When it goes GOP, it is usually late. They missed Reagan’s surge in 1980 as well. That was 40 years ago. 😄 Polling is much better today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Wednesday, August 26 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1 Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2 Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Roanoke College Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Franklin & Marshall Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Bloomberg said it so it must be true. 👌 The data points to a simpler explanation: there was a large number of undecideds on election day and those who disliked both candidates decided to pull the lever for Trump over Clinton. The undecideds are half as much in 2020 and Biden is polling ahead of Trump on those who dislike both candidates. This is actually demonstrable while claiming that Trafalgar is a magical pollster is not. They magically nailed Pa and Michigan in 2016 - almost on the nose. They embarrassed a lot of folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Betting odds Biden lead down to 5 In July it was 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: They magically nailed Pa and Michigan in 2016 - almost on the nose. They embarrassed a lot of folks It happened once. It's not a trend. If their explanation is that they're better at finding shy Trump voters, which hasn't been proven even exist, then they're just guessing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Here we go Trump hits NH today https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump/trump-to-campaign-in-new-hampshire-after-convention-speech-at-white-house-idUSKBN25O1AE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Betting odds Biden lead down to 5 In July it was 25 On June 1st Trump was ahead. 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Here we go Trump hits NH today https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump/trump-to-campaign-in-new-hampshire-after-convention-speech-at-white-house-idUSKBN25O1AE I hope he's wasting his time in New Hampshire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: I hope he's wasting his time in New Hampshire. Narrowly lost it last time. Was told he was wasting time in the Rust Belt 4 years ago. I suspect his political instincts are much better than yours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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