Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: So I say that you made something up about polling and then you respond with no polling. You just point at two TV commentators who aren't pollsters. Bang up job as usual, Dr. Quack. They specifically said the polling shows it - and they probably have more info than you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bormio said: They specifically said the polling shows it - and they probably have more info than you Then show the polling. Pretty simple stuff. But you're a goofball and a liar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Then show the polling. Pretty simple stuff. But you're a goofball and a liar. They said it. They did not give numbers. But they have access to CNN’s polling. And if they said THAT, it’s quite likely to be true. Lemon said only 2 things are dominating focus groups now - Covid and Kenosha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: They said it. They did not give numbers. But they have access to CNN’s polling. And if they said THAT, it’s quite likely to be true. Lemon said only 2 things are dominating focus groups now - Covid and Kenosha And covid is essentially killing nobody anymore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: They said it. They did not give numbers. Exactly. I already knew that you had nothing. But thanks for actually admitting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 By the way, Biden led by 6.2% in the fivethirtyeight average on June 1st. He leads by 8.2% today. 11 weeks of protesting/violent clashes and Biden is +2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: Lemon said only 2 things are dominating focus groups now - Covid and Kenosha There's also no evidence that the latter is a negative for Democrats. Biden's polling has gone up for months while both of those issues (Coronavirus and protests) have been happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: So I charge you with not understanding percentages and then you respond by proving that you don't understand percentages. They weren't wrong with their percentages at the state levels either. Trump always had about a 1/3 chance to flip those Midwestern states if everything broke in his favor. Statistically, given the odds/percentages provided by 538's predictions, Trump had a 21.1% of winning Michigan, 16.5% chance for Wisconsin and 23.0% chance of winning Pennsylvania. That means that according to the 538 percentages, the chance of him winning all three was 0.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Exactly. I already knew that you had nothing. But thanks for actually admitting it. We have you - who has no info on this - versus 2 CNN anchors with access to their polling data saying what I said. Hmm ... who do I believe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: There's also no evidence that the latter is a negative for Democrats. Biden's polling has gone up for months while both of those issues (Coronavirus and protests) have been happening. What the protests were doing to the polls 2 months ago is irrelevant to what they are doing now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: And covid is essentially killing nobody anymore 5,000 Americans have died in the last 6 days. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, concha said: Statistically, given the odds/percentages provided by 538's predictions, Trump had a 21.1% of winning Michigan, 16.5% chance for Wisconsin and 23.0% chance of winning Pennsylvania. That means that according to the 538 percentages, the chance of him winning all three was 0.8%. So better than 20% in each one. And Nate Silver explicitly laid out why a 30% chance in Trump's situation were not bad odds given the shared demographics in those states. If they moved in one then they'd move in all. You're woefully bad at anything that has numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bormio said: We have you - who has no info on this - versus 2 CNN anchors with access to their polling data saying what I said. CNN apparently has no information either. I'm simply claiming that you made that up. And you did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: What the protests were doing to the polls 2 months ago is irrelevant to what they are doing now So the protests as a whole have Biden +2. Somehow you think that's irrelevant but empty claims about polling without any actual polling to back them up is relevant apparently. You're such a boob that it's comical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: CNN apparently has no information either. I'm simply claiming that you made that up. And you did. So Lemon was lying?? Guess it wouldn’t be the first time - but maybe the first time to verify a GOP claim. So no, I did not make it up. But go on believing what you believe - I could give a shit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: So better than 20% in each one. And Nate Silver explicitly laid out why a 30% chance in Trump's situation were not bad odds given the shared demographics in those states. If they moved in one then they'd move in all. You're woefully bad at anything that has numbers. 1) 16.5% < 20.0% 🤣 🤡 2) All are significantly lower than the 1/3 number you threw out. Let alone the odds of all happening at once. 🤡 3) Even if you assume some correlation between the results, the chances of winning all three were less than 11% on average. 11% <<< 33%. 🤡 https://chance.amstat.org/2018/11/epic-fail/ You are literally like the court fool. You face plant for all to see and then project that face plant on the guy who proved you to be a complete mathematical boob. LMAO. Andy skipped school the day they taught math. 🤣 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 36 minutes ago, Bormio said: So Lemon was lying?? Stop passing the buck for your silly comments. You said something in which you had no evidence for and now you're making wild-eyed claims like I'm accusing a third person of lying. No, I'm accusing you of making something up in the moment and then when claiming that you had support for it offered none at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 38 minutes ago, Bormio said: So no, I did not make it up. But go on believing what you believe - I could give a shit You did and I will until you prove otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, concha said: 2) All are significantly lower than the 1/3 number you threw out. Let alone the odds of all happening at once. 🤡 Why do you continually prove how incompetent you are with numbers? Trump had a 30% chance of winning the electoral vote because his base demographics were similar in all three states. He got lucky and won narrowly. Somehow you think that this proves the probabilities wrong. That's epic stupidity on your part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 36 minutes ago, concha said: Andy skipped school the day they taught math. 🤣 concha thinks that a probability of 30% is wrong because the 30% actually happened. And he thinks that I skipped math day. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, concha said: 1) 16.5% < 20.0% 🤣 🤡 2) All are significantly lower than the 1/3 number you threw out. Let alone the odds of all happening at once. 🤡 3) Even if you assume some correlation between the results, the chances of winning all three were less than 11% on average. 11% <<< 33%. 🤡 https://chance.amstat.org/2018/11/epic-fail/ You are literally like the court fool. You face plant for all to see and then project that face plant on the guy who proved you to be a complete mathematical boob. LMAO. Andy skipped school the day they taught math. 🤣 🤡 The face plants are epic. Could he and Karen/Krusty be the same poster? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Why do you continually prove how incompetent you are with numbers? Trump had a 30% chance of winning the electoral vote because his base demographics were similar in all three states. He got lucky and won narrowly. Somehow you think that this proves the probabilities wrong. That's epic stupidity on your part. Not based on the polls from 538, he didn't. Proven. In fact, perhaps the most accurate poll for those states was the "C-" poll from Trafalgar that you ridicule. Oh, I guess the MIT statistics professor is wrong also? What a shameless dumbass. 🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, concha said: Not based on the polls from 538, he didn't. He did. 1/3~ chance of winning the electoral college. concha now goes straight from lying to denying reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, concha said: In fact, perhaps the most accurate poll for those states was the "C-" poll from Trafalgar that you ridicule. Yes, I "ridicule" crappy polls that got lucky once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: He did. 1/3~ chance of winning the electoral college. concha now goes straight from lying to denying reality. The liar is you, Andy. You said "Trump always had about a 1/3 chance to flip those Midwestern states if everything broke in his favor". You were NOT talking about the electoral college in general. Nowhere does Nate Silver identify MI, WI and PA and assign a 30% or 1/3 chance of winning them all. You are unhinged and desperately flailing around trying to cover for your screw-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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