Bormio Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 How is Biden going to campaign at the end? A trip from Delaware to Pittsburgh is almost too much for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Dr. Quack making things up again. Normalcy is returning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 On 8/30/2020 at 11:56 AM, Bormio said: The election is starting to feel like 1988. Trump is very effective at identifying an opponent’s weakness and hammering it until they bleed, maybe the best I have ever seen. 👇 On 10/20/2018 at 5:55 PM, Bormio said: Normally I might see this as a dead cat bounce (fundamentals usually win out), but the election is reminding me of 1998, when the GOP was supposed to gain seats and instead lost 5. This guy is on fire with his comparisons. 🤡 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Likely GE poll Biden only 2 point lead https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions Hrc had a 2 pt lead and lost election 2016 deja vu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 From 538 wow Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 From NC Recent polls indicate likely voters are more on the Republican side, Gibson said. https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2020/08/31/nc-presidential-election-senate-election-2020-trump-and-biden/5678098002/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: From 538 wow Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/ Worth keeping an eye on for sure but with the least popular candidate ever in 2016 they still won the state by 1.5% which is more than Trump won Wisconsin and Michigan combined. And Republicans haven't gotten close to 50% in 35 years. And there's a Democratic incumbent Senator on the ballot too. Probably swings further blue this year. Maybe 3-4 point margin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 Betting odds Biden lead down to 1.3 He blew a huge lead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 17 hours ago, HSFBfan said: From NC Recent polls indicate likely voters are more on the Republican side, Gibson said. https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2020/08/31/nc-presidential-election-senate-election-2020-trump-and-biden/5678098002/ Interesting. Because all of the likely voter polls in the last 7-10 days have the Democrats ahead. For President For Senate For Governor 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: Betting odds Biden lead down to 1.3 He blew a huge lead LV poll of 12,966 people by Morning Consult (they nailed the popular vote numbers in 2016) has Biden up 51-43 (poll was taken Aug. 28-30) They ran another set of 4,000 LV's on Aug. 30 and that had Biden up 52-43. Rasmussen again has Trump at -4 in disapproval, he'd been even before the RNC and is now consistently under since. Morning Consult ran these states too (they factored in pre and post RNC; Aug. 21-30): FL Biden +2 (3,790 LV) PA Biden +4 (2,158 LV) NC Biden +2 (1,567 LV) Minn Biden +7 (647 LV) WI Biden +9 (811 LV) MI Biden +10 (1,424 LV) GA +3 (1,392 LV) AZ Biden +10 (943 LV) TX Trump +1 (2,632 LV) OH Trump +5 (1,811 LV) In 2016, Morning Consult had their final poll before election broken down like this: Hillary - 45 (election result 48.2) Trump - 42 (election result 46.1) So take those numbers for what they're worth, but they nailed the popular vote last time around, and this time they've got Biden up 8 and 9 points on LV surveys of 17,000 people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: Betting odds Biden lead down to 1.3 He blew a huge lead Betting odds are not polls. So he blew nothing. Perception among marks has nothing to do with anything. The prediction markets have been utterly useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 On October 18th, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 7.1% per the RCP Poll Average. She was at +6.3% on August 27th. Biden is currently +6.2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, concha said: On October 18th, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 7.1% per the RCP Poll Average. She was at +6.3% on August 27th. Biden is currently +6.2%. I love the cherry pick. 😄 Not only is Biden ahead of where Clinton was at this point but his lead has been steady and durable. Nice try, lyin' concha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, concha said: On October 18th, 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 7.1% per the RCP Poll Average. She was at +6.3% on August 27th. Biden is currently +6.2%. James Comey did a ton of damage to her campaign among the email crap that has still managed to go nowhere despite 4 years of Trump. His letter (that Republicans went public with when they had no business doing so) in the final week was likely the difference in the election in states like MI where the margin was a few thousand - while thousands of people voted down ballot blue and left POTUS blank. I don't see that condition being replicated this time around. Barr is going to try with whatever slop he drops from Durham. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, DownSouth said: I don't see that condition being replicated this time around. Barr is going to try with whatever slop he drops from Durham. Lyin' concha likely knows this but will try his damnedest to pretend that something is likely to change the trajectory of this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: I love the cherry pick. 😄 Not only is Biden ahead of where Clinton was at this point but his lead has been steady and durable. Nice try, lyin' concha. Andy, your obsession with throwing accusations of lying is really pathetic. There was a point behind my HONESTY in being transparent with the dates I chose. The POINT is that the polls can swing substantially and Biden being up by 6.2% now is pretty irrelevant given that in 2016 Hillary was up by MORE at a LATER DATE and STILL LOST (and YOU were WRONG about the outcome). 🤡 And you wonder why people think you're such an asshole and you get banned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, DownSouth said: James Comey did a ton of damage to her campaign among the email crap that has still managed to go nowhere despite 4 years of Trump. His letter (that Republicans went public with when they had no business doing so) in the final week was likely the difference in the election in states like MI where the margin was a few thousand - while thousands of people voted down ballot blue and left POTUS blank. I don't see that condition being replicated this time around. Barr is going to try with whatever slop he drops from Durham. Yeah, because there were no dirty tricks being played by the Dems and their media lackeys for months... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: Andy, your obsession with throwing accusations of lying is really pathetic. You always lie and/or post incorrect information. Who's fault is that? 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Lyin' concha likely knows this but will try his damnedest to pretend that something is likely to change the trajectory of this race. Concha points out facts. It's September 1st. Over two months to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: Lyin' concha likely knows this but will try his damnedest to pretend that something is likely to change the trajectory of this race. For Trump to win, he's going to have to thread the needle even finer this time around. It's possible, since there's a ton of rubes in the Rust Belt that REALLY love the guy - fully invested in his cult of personality. And as the incumbent he controls the bully pulpit, and he loves to abuse it to his advantage. But Biden really does not need much to win. If all things stay the same as in 2016, Biden only has to win back PA and FL and it's over; or win FL, MI, and WI - while losing PA. I'm not too sure how to read AZ yet, they'll likely end up with 2 Dem Senators but I'll believe it when I see it that they vote blue for POTUS. With that being said, if AZ is actually this up for grabs, he can win AZ and FL while losing MI, WI, PA, and NC and Biden would still end up with 272 EC votes. As usual, it's all about FL. If Trump loses FL and Biden holds all the HRC states, Biden is already at 261. Any ONE out of MI, WI, PA, AZ, NC, GA, or OH and it's over. Biden could just win back WI/MI/PA and win, or take MI and PA (the most likely to stay with Trump is probably WI and has been before the unrest happened) and those 2 put him at 268 with FL, AZ, and NC on the board still (I think OH is solidly safe Trump and GA is likely pretty safe for Trump too but those are still left over). That's a ton of map to defend, and it won't be easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: Concha points out facts. Like when you said that Hillary was ahead of Biden at this point? 👇 19 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: I love the cherry pick. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: You always lie and/or post incorrect information. Who's fault is that? 🤷♂️ Andy, your opinions on what is a lie or nor and your own history of lies are part of what makes you the asshat and fool you are. I posted facts. I was transparent. I pointed out that that you would rather invent a false accusation of dishonesty rather than accept an obviously correct point. Eat shit. 👍 💩 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, concha said: There was a point behind my HONESTY in being transparent with the dates I chose. So you were transparently dishonest and misleading? Thanks. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, concha said: The POINT is that the polls can swing substantially and Biden being up by 6.2% now is pretty irrelevant given that in 2016 Hillary was up by MORE at a LATER DATE and STILL LOST (and YOU were WRONG about the outcome). No, the point is that the polls swung substantially in 2016 but haven't done so at all in 2020. The candidates are different. The environment is different. Nothing that happened in 2016 has happened in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 1, 2020 Report Share Posted September 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, concha said: And you wonder why people think you're such an asshole and you get banned. Again, I've never been banned for correcting your falsehoods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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