Enthusiasm Gap & Secret Voters?

[concha]

 

A couple of things may be prove (or are proving) to be interesting influences on how this election plays out.  

What are your thoughts to the following?

 

One is the enthusiasm gap.  Trump enjoyed a substantial advantage here back in 2016 and appears to have the same now (perhaps even more pronounced). Per YouGov:

Quote

During July, better than two-thirds of Trump supporters (68%) felt “enthusiastic” about him compared to 40 percent of Biden supporters who felt the same about him.

 

The other is the idea that given the current political climate where Republicans/conservatives are demonized, they ar less likely to openly communicate their support for Trump. McClatchy did an interesting experiment where they polled 2,400 Trump supporters using online, live call and automated calling methodologies. The results were +6 for Trump when done online.  

Cato did an arguably related study about groups feeling free or not to express their beliefs...

 

[Bormio]

In the age of social media and possible loss of career, I do think people are reluctant to share non-woke opinions unless they are sure it is safe.

[Atticus Finch]

I agree that if there are millions of secret Trump voters then he might win. But there's absolutely, positively no evidence for it and, as usual, you post a chart that has nothing to do with the actual claim that you're making.

I love your transparently misleading headline.

It also doesn't really matter if your voters are really enthused if they only make up 45% of the votes cast.

[concha]

23 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

I agree that if there are millions of secret Trump voters then he might win. But there's absolutely, positively no evidence for it and, as usual, you post a chart that has nothing to do with the actual claim that you're making.

I love your transparently misleading headline.

It also doesn't really matter if your voters are really enthused if they only make up 45% of the votes cast.

 

Andy,

There was nothing misleading at all.  You just need to be an asshat. You can't help yourself.

I posted info from a experiment that showed Trump numbers could be distorted 6%. Your problem is with McClatchy, not me.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article98915057.html

 

And the chart can, arguably, lend credence to Trump supporters/conservatives not being reflected properly in polling due to discomfort/reluctance to be open about their support (as seen in the McClatchy experiment).  If you don't think so, then fine.  I don't give a shit. Everyone who reads this thread can reach their own conclusions.

Now feel free to continue to spray your mental diarrhea and dishonesty. Again, you just can't help yourself.

 

 

 

[Atticus Finch]

1 minute ago, concha said:

There was nothing misleading at all.  You just need to be an asshat. You can't help yourself.

You talked about secret voters and then even hedged yourself by saying that your chart was "arguably" related.

It's not very related at all in reality.

Despite this you put it in your subject.

Typical.

[Atticus Finch]

3 minutes ago, concha said:

I posted info from a experiment that showed Trump numbers could be distorted 6%. Your problem is with McClatchy, not me.

There's no problem with the data.

The problem is how you framed it as usual.

Transparently misleading.

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, concha said:

 

Andy,

There was nothing misleading at all.  You just need to be an asshat. You can't help yourself.

I posted info from a experiment that showed Trump numbers could be distorted 6%. Your problem is with McClatchy, not me.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article98915057.html

 

And the chart can, arguably, lend credence to Trump supporters/conservatives not being reflected properly in polling due to discomfort/reluctance to be open about their support (as seen in the McClatchy experiment).  If you don't think so, then fine.  I don't give a shit. Everyone who reads this thread can reach their own conclusions.

Now feel free to continue to spray your mental diarrhea and dishonesty. Again, you just can't help yourself.

 

 

 

I will say this, I may not be enthusiastic about a Biden/Harris ticket. However, I am highly motivated to vote against Trump. I wonder if any of the fine polling organizations have measured the anti-Trump motivation factor?

[concha]

5 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

You talked about secret voters and then even hedged yourself by saying that your chart was "arguably" related.

It's not very related at all in reality.

Despite this you put it in your subject.

Typical.

 

Dumbass, the McClatchy stuff speaks directly to secret voters.

The chart speaks as to why they may exist.

You either are just intellectually not bright enough to understand that or you are just going out of your way to be a dick. As usual.

 

[Atticus Finch]

6 minutes ago, concha said:

Dumbass, the McClatchy stuff speaks directly to secret voters.

The chart is from Cato.

Even you admitted that it's "arguably" related.

😄

Lyin' concha trying to convince himself is the best evidence yet that they're losing.

[Atticus Finch]

15 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I will say this, I may not be enthusiastic about a Biden/Harris ticket. However, I am highly motivated to vote against Trump. I wonder if any of the fine polling organizations have measured the anti-Trump motivation factor?

This whole angle is nonsense.

There's no evidence that secret Trump voters exist. He overpolled in the 2016 primaries and his final vote was well within any normal margin of error in the general election.

concha knows that he's losing and so he's trying to convince himself that there are secret uncounted voters out there for Trump.

[DarterBlue]

6 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

This whole angle is nonsense.

There's no evidence that secret Trump voters exist. He overpolled in the 2016 primaries and his final vote was well within any normal margin of error in the general election.

concha knows that he's losing and so he's trying to convince himself that there are secret uncounted voters out there for Trump.

I think you have an elevated opinion of Concha's ability to perceive reality. But, yes, he is trying to reinforce his conviction that his Emperor, DJT, will win again. 

[Atticus Finch]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

I think you have an elevated opinion of Concha's ability to perceive reality. But, yes, he is trying to reinforce his conviction that his Emperor, DJT, will win again. 

Remember.

concha is a liar and a dishonest manipulator.

He sees reality but wants to change it.

[concha]

2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I think you have an elevated opinion of Concha's ability to perceive reality. But, yes, he is trying to reinforce his conviction that his Emperor, DJT, will win again. 

 

I'm raising a valid point proven out in a McClatchy experiment that things light be closer than reflected in polling.

No comments regarding nor refutation of the McClatchy experiment?

 

[DownSouth]

25 minutes ago, concha said:

 

Dumbass, the McClatchy stuff speaks directly to secret voters.

The chart speaks as to why they may exist.

You either are just intellectually not bright enough to understand that or you are just going out of your way to be a dick. As usual.

 

 

I don't discount the results of the survey, but I don't buy into the messaging. YouGov, for example, is online only surveys and Trump consistently does worse in those than he does split surveys (half online and half or even all phone interview).

And based on 2016, with NATIONAL polls, there's no evidence to suggest a hidden Trump voter existed either (or that they were bashful about saying so in a poll). The final RCP average had HRC winning the popular vote by +3.2 % and her final margin was +2.1%, so well within any margin of error on any poll.

538 analyzed this after the 2016 election and found that there isn't really a "hidden Trump voter" that would explain why the state polls were a bit off (early on; the state polls did get much closer to the correct numbers in the final weeks of the campaign). 538 found that all the polls sampled white people incorrectly; they found that white voters were not sampled based on education levels (those with no college education broke major for Trump) and that under-sampling non-college educated whites was the main reason. - That issue has been corrected this cycle.

And if there was a hidden Trump voter (in 2016) it turned out it was in the reddest states - which makes little sense if there really is hidden Trump voters.

These are the top 10 states where his biggest over-performance in the polls were:

South Dakota (over-performed by 13.7%), Vermont, Idaho, North Dakota, Indiana (over-performed by 7.9%), Wisconsin, Utah, Arkansas, Alaska, Kentucky (over-performed by 5.2%)

Out of those, the only state he lost was Vermont, and the only state he won that was wasn't already solidly Republican was Wisconsin.

The bottom 5 states that he under-performed the most were states you'd EXPECT a shy Trump voter to be from (very blue).

Illinois (-1.7% compared to the polls), Nevada, Connecticut (-2.4% compared to the polls), Washington, Hawaii (-10.5% compared to the polls)

 

If there were silent Trump voters, those states should have been the ones to actually show it. And Nevada was considered a swing state, and not only did he lose, but he lost worse than the polls thought he would (he under-performed the Nevada polls by -1.8%); had there been silent voters there that would have showed up in a swing state like NV.

 

Lastly, personal anecdote - every person I know that is open about liking Trump, is VERY open about it. They gush about him, some even brag they were 2X (or 1X) Obama voters. We're talking multiple people here, about 10...in Miami Beach, not exactly a place known for being friendly to Republican viewpoints. These aren't just his typical batshit crazy rally crowd of Deplorables, and they aren't shy about it.

 

So I don't really put much of any stock in that initial poll.

[Atticus Finch]

16 minutes ago, DownSouth said:

Lastly, personal anecdote - every person I know that is open about liking Trump, is VERY open about it. They gush about him, some even brag they were 2X (or 1X) Obama voters. We're talking multiple people here, about 10...in Miami Beach, not exactly a place known for being friendly to Republican viewpoints. These aren't just his typical batshit crazy rally crowd of Deplorables, and they aren't shy about it.

Yeah, the "silent majority" claims and "silent Trump voters" claim are absurd just based on the fact that they are the loudest most obnoxious people you'll ever meet.

They're not exactly shy about how much they love Trump.

[concha]

13 minutes ago, DownSouth said:

 

I don't discount the results of the survey, but I don't buy into the messaging. YouGov, for example, is online only surveys and Trump consistently does worse in those than he does split surveys (half online and half or even all phone interview).

And based on 2016, with NATIONAL polls, there's no evidence to suggest a hidden Trump voter existed either (or that they were bashful about saying so in a poll). The final RCP average had HRC winning the popular vote by +3.2 % and her final margin was +2.1%, so well within any margin of error on any poll.

538 analyzed this after the 2016 election and found that there isn't really a "hidden Trump voter" that would explain why the state polls were a bit off (early on; the state polls did get much closer to the correct numbers in the final weeks of the campaign). 538 found that all the polls sampled white people incorrectly; they found that white voters were not sampled based on education levels (those with no college education broke major for Trump) and that under-sampling non-college educated whites was the main reason. - That issue has been corrected this cycle.

And if there was a hidden Trump voter (in 2016) it turned out it was in the reddest states - which makes little sense if there really is hidden Trump voters.

These are the top 10 states where his biggest over-performance in the polls were:

South Dakota (over-performed by 13.7%), Vermont, Idaho, North Dakota, Indiana (over-performed by 7.9%), Wisconsin, Utah, Arkansas, Alaska, Kentucky (over-performed by 5.2%)

Out of those, the only state he lost was Vermont, and the only state he won that was wasn't already solidly Republican was Wisconsin.

The bottom 5 states that he under-performed the most were states you'd EXPECT a shy Trump voter to be from (very blue).

Illinois (-1.7% compared to the polls), Nevada, Connecticut (-2.4% compared to the polls), Washington, Hawaii (-10.5% compared to the polls)

 

If there were silent Trump voters, those states should have been the ones to actually show it. And Nevada was considered a swing state, and not only did he lose, but he lost worse than the polls thought he would (he under-performed the Nevada polls by -1.8%); had there been silent voters there that would have showed up in a swing state like NV.

 

Lastly, personal anecdote - every person I know that is open about liking Trump, is VERY open about it. They gush about him, some even brag they were 2X (or 1X) Obama voters. We're talking multiple people here, about 10...in Miami Beach, not exactly a place known for being friendly to Republican viewpoints. These aren't just his typical batshit crazy rally crowd of Deplorables, and they aren't shy about it.

 

So I don't really put much of any stock in that initial poll.

 

I think the point is more that over the preceding 3-4 years, things have worsened vs 2016.

The McClatchy experiment was very interesting.

As regards people you know, that can be very different than communicating with strangers.

 

 

[RedZone]

1 hour ago, Atticus Finch said:

There's no evidence that secret Trump voters exist

Might be a couple...zulu1128 comes to mind. 

He doesn't fly with the rest of the trump birds.

 

[Atticus Finch]

Just now, RedZone said:

Might be a couple...zulu1128 comes to mind.

zulu1128 would definitely be the first if he ever actually said anything.

[maxchoboian]

2 hours ago, concha said:

The other is the idea that given the current political climate where Republicans/conservatives are demonized, they ar less likely to openly communicate their support for Trump.

 

2 hours ago, Bormio said:

In the age of social media and possible loss of career, I do think people are reluctant to share non-woke opinions unless they are sure it is safe.

 

Only Republicans are in fear of being demonized and/or losing their careers for being open about their choice? That doesn't make sense. Look at this side of the board, which without question has more Trump supporters contributing to these political topics than otherwise. Are we to think there are many others with "non-woke opinions" who are not posting here in fear of being demonized? 

With the closeness of the results of 2016, and the current split within the country, why would Republicans be any more concerned about secretly supporting their choice than Democrats?

This is similar to the hogwash that mail-in ballots only benefit one side.

[concha]

1 minute ago, maxchoboian said:

 

Only Republicans are in fear of being demonized and/or losing their careers for being open about their choice? That doesn't make sense. Look at this side of the board, which without question has more Trump supporters contributing to these political topics than otherwise. Are we to think there are many others with "non-woke opinions" who are not posting here in fear of being demonized? 

With the closeness of the results of 2016, and the current split within the country, why would Republicans be any more concerned about secretly supporting their choice than Democrats?

This is similar to the hogwash that mail-in ballots only benefit one side.

 

It is far from hogwash.

It happens with conservative students at college being afraid to express views to their generally (overwhelmingly) liberal professors.

It happens at work.

 

https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share#32-worry-their-political-views-could-harm-their-employment

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/evidence-conservative-students-really-do-self-censor/606559/

https://sanjosespotlight.com/a-silent-majority-some-republicans-live-in-fear-in-silicon-valley/

 

 

[RedZone]

....cryin' chuck (concha) posted a chart/study showing that warm weather would kill Covid-19.

This chart probably deserves to be in that file.

 

 

[Blueliner]

18 minutes ago, maxchoboian said:

 

 

Only Republicans are in fear of being demonized and/or losing their careers for being open about their choice? That doesn't make sense. Look at this side of the board, which without question has more Trump supporters contributing to these political topics than otherwise. Are we to think there are many others with "non-woke opinions" who are not posting here in fear of being demonized? 

With the closeness of the results of 2016, and the current split within the country, why would Republicans be any more concerned about secretly supporting their choice than Democrats?

This is similar to the hogwash that mail-in ballots only benefit one side.

SMDH. Are you really placing this forum in the same category as tge college student/professor relationship or an employee that that has to answer to an HR department? Nice try.

[maxchoboian]

8 minutes ago, concha said:

 

It happens with conservative students at college being afraid to express views to their generally (overwhelmingly) liberal professors.

It happens at work.

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Blueliner said:

SMDH. Are you really placing this forum in the same category as tge college student/professor relationship or an employee that that has to answer to an HR department? Nice try.

 

Employers and HR departments are overwhelmingly liberal? I don't buy it.

[concha]

1 minute ago, maxchoboian said:

Employers and HR departments are overwhelmingly liberal? I don't buy it.

 

You seem to think that this is something in conservatives imaginations.

It is not.

And it is not simply the risk of losing a job.

Accusations of being a racist, nazi, bigot etc. simply for supporting Trump or being conservative are flung around these days like no time I can remember.   Nobody wants to deal with that.

And think if someone happens to be a black conservative. Do you honestly think there's no reluctance to let it be known in an environment where other blacks are working? 

 

 

[maxchoboian]

5 minutes ago, concha said:

 

You seem to think that this is something in conservatives imaginations.

It is not.

And it is not simply the risk of losing a job.

Accusations of being a racist, nazi, bigot etc. simply for supporting Trump or being conservative are flung around these days like no time I can remember.   Nobody wants to deal with that.

And think if someone happens to be a black conservative. Do you honestly think there's no reluctance to let it be known in an environment where other blacks are working? 

 

 

Aren't the same accusations of being racist, bigot, etc. being flung around like never before at liberals as well? Sure seems that way to me.