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Michigan- Washington Predictions


steeler01

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12 hours ago, HooverOutlaw said:

I said Michigan would score 34. 

Washington should not have made it over Georgia.

Terrible take 

first, game last night was closer than final score — I won’t get into the arguekwnt, but UW deserved to be there.  In fact, if it weren’t for legacy rankings, they ought to have been the #1 seed — they played by far the toughest schedule of any of the 3 undefeated power 5 champions

second, while I concur that imho GA was the best team in FBS this year, why knock WA out?  On what basis?  Not looking good last night?  Remember they beat TX last week in a game that wasn’t as close as final score, who had already lost to OK, among their most top 10 wins of any team in country.  If you would make a case that GA ought to have been in, there’s no reason not to take TX out instead of UW

but, I realize that leaves you a little problem, as TX was a power 5 champ that already owned a win over your Tide.  Either way, both if those teams are a much easier case to toss out than UW if you wanted to make a point about GA

personally, although I think GA was likely beat team this year (maybe Michigan has made a case otherwise now), and I sympathize with FSU, I think they got the 4 CFP teams right, including the seeding even in hindsight 

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8 minutes ago, PopsNW said:

first, game last night was closer than final score — I won’t get into the arguekwnt, but UW deserved to be there

These are two different arguments. Yes, Washington deserved to be there. But, no, it wasn't actually closer than the score. It was a strange game where the late quasi-garbage points actually made the outcome about what it *should've* been all along.

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12 hours ago, steeler01 said:

Do you still believe this?

 

What part?

Michigan looked good and deserved to win.  Think UM looked better in both sides of the the LOS, but don’t think that was a deal-breaker.  UW settled against the run after the first 2 drives and allowed only one sack.  They were driving for tying touchdown with 7+ minutes left.  They just kept failing to deliver — dropped balls, missed receivers m, etc.  

 I did say Michigan rush game most worrisome to me and that I’d feel better if I knew Dillon Johnson was going to be healthy — not only was he not, UW didn’t have a better option than a fairly well hobbled Rb to with.  You could say the difference in game was UM’s 2nd string RB vs UW’s.  

I will concede that UW’s RT was badly overmatched — he probably had 75 yards of penalties himself, most of which killed drives, when he wasn’t injuring his own QB by being driven backwards.  

 

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10 minutes ago, PopsNW said:

Terrible take 

first, game last night was closer than final score — I won’t get into the arguekwnt, but UW deserved to be there.  In fact, if it weren’t for legacy rankings, they ought to have been the #1 seed — they played by far the toughest schedule of any of the 3 undefeated power 5 champions

second, while I concur that imho GA was the best team in FBS this year, why knock WA out?  On what basis?  Not looking good last night?  Remember they beat TX last week in a game that wasn’t as close as final score, who had already lost to OK, among their most top 10 wins of any team in country.

The game wasn't close last night at all.  Washington was fortunate to be down 7 in that game.  

Texas- Washington was much closer than last night's game.  Texas turnovers decided that game. 

 

Last night

 

Total yards

 

Michigan 443

Washington 301

 

Rushing yards

Michigan 303(More rushing yards than Washington had total offense)

 

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2 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

Michigan was ahead of Washington in every non-legacy metric. So, no.

Not strength of schedule — not even close, which was basically my only point on differentiating between undefeated two undefeated power 5 teams for seeding purposes 

 

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1 minute ago, PopsNW said:

What part?

Michigan looked good and deserved to win.  Think UM looked better in both sides of the the LOS, but don’t think that was a deal-breaker.  UW settled against the run after the first 2 drives and allowed only one sack.  They were driving for tying touchdown with 7+ minutes left.  They just kept failing to deliver — dropped balls, missed receivers m, etc.  

Michigan went away from the run in the 2nd quarter and started making mistake after mistake in the 3rd quarter(Drops, false starts and they were throwing the ball).

 

Penix was getting hit and moved around on every throw. Did you see how he finished the game? 

 The Washington RT(73) was abused all night and was called for several holds.

 

1 minute ago, PopsNW said:

I will concede that UW’s RT was badly overmatched — he probably had 75 yards of penalties himself, most of which killed drives, when he wasn’t injuring his own QB by being driven backwards.  

 

Yup

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2 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

The game wasn't close last night at all.  Washington was fortunate to be down 7 in that game.  

Texas- Washington was much closer than last night's game.  Texas turnovers decided that game. 

 

Last night

 

Total yards

 

Michigan 443

Washington 301

 

Rushing yards

Michigan 303(More rushing yards than Washington had total offense)

 

Michigan deserved the win, and your pre-game comments trump my take, but after the first quarter last night when Michigan looked way better, that game was about even statistically, felt like UW had momentum until 7 minutes left.  Why are TX turnovers an excuse but not UW’s?  How different would game have been had Johnson been healthy (a caveat I mentioned beforehand) or penix didn’t break a rib or whatever he was trying to play thru in 4th?

I’m not sure if you’re just trying to say you weee right — OK, conceded, or that UW shouldn’t have been there — strongly disagree 

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11 minutes ago, PopsNW said:

What part?

Michigan looked good and deserved to win.  Think UM looked better in both sides of the the LOS, but don’t think that was a deal-breaker.  UW settled against the run after the first 2 drives and allowed only one sack.  They were driving for tying touchdown with 7+ minutes left.  They just kept failing to deliver — dropped balls, missed receivers m, etc.  

 I did say Michigan rush game most worrisome to me and that I’d feel better if I knew Dillon Johnson was going to be healthy — not only was he not, UW didn’t have a better option than a fairly well hobbled Rb to with.  You could say the difference in game was UM’s 2nd string RB vs UW’s.  

I will concede that UW’s RT was badly overmatched — he probably had 75 yards of penalties himself, most of which killed drives, when he wasn’t injuring his own QB by being driven backwards.  

 

Not 100 pct sure because I flew through the FF and only watched a handful of plays twice (I’ll watch again later to see what I missed using the reg broadcast w announcers)… I think the Coastal Carolina transfer got his second OL into QB smack as he did vs Bama.  

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7 minutes ago, PopsNW said:

Michigan deserved the win, and your pre-game comments trump my take, but after the first quarter last night when Michigan looked way better, that game was about even statistically, felt like UW had momentum until 7 minutes left.  Why are TX turnovers an excuse but not UW’s?  How different would game have been had Johnson been healthy (a caveat I mentioned beforehand) or penix didn’t break a rib or whatever he was trying to play thru in 4th?

Washington was never gonna run the ball on Michigan. 

Michigan last night,  had the ball up 14-3 at the Washington 14 running at will and on 3rd and 4 decided to pass the ball.  They started trying to pass the ball for some unknown reason a lot more after that. Which put them behind the chains. 

 

Texas had two fumbles deep in Washington territory(One caused by their own man). Last night,  Washington wasn't moving the ball. 

 

Washington on the otherhand had one turnover that was irrelevant (Last pick). 4th and 13 pass didn't make a difference in the outcome of the game. These turnovers were do to Michigan's pressure.  Penix could've thrown 3 or 4 last night. Many times he was hit and the ball was up for grabs. Those are usually picks. 

7 minutes ago, PopsNW said:

I’m not sure if you’re just trying to say you weee right — OK, conceded, or that UW shouldn’t have been there — strongly disagree 

Washington deserved to be in the playoffs, but Michigan and Alabama  were terrible match ups for them.  They played the only team they matched up well with in the semis. 

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2 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

1

Washington has the better O- line

2

Washington wasn't overwhelmed along the LOS

 

Hmmm

wonder how different things might have looked if UW had Michigans Rbs last night and Michigan had UW’s

as I said, Michigan definitely won the LOS battle, and uW’s RT had awful game.   Me if my main points though was just that I thought the LOS battle would be within the margin of UW’s superior ability to make bigger plays.  I don’t think I was wrong on that but UW wasn’t able to deliver enough big plays (have to give Mich credit, but the playmakers were just off a bit as well — Johnson injury, penix injury/ pressure, idunze’s wirst game etc)

 

I expected UW to be hit in the mouth by UM’s rushing game.  I just expected UW to be able to hit back more in their own way than they did 

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@PopsNW 

Sort of had a DLS-STA 2011 feel in a way the score moved.  

Even at 27-13 I was a little nervous.  I’ve been a fan since 1975, and they’ve shit the bed a lot!  

This season was special and different, with a smashmouth and physicality on both sides I haven’t seen in years (if at all overall) with coordinators execution under Harbaugh.  

Michigan reminded me of the Giants under Parcells with Belichek at DC.  OJ Anderson SB year.  Smashmouth and a stingy D with a clever DC to contain the Bills.  

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Just now, PopsNW said:

Hmmm

wonder how different things might have looked if UW had Michigans Rbs last night and Michigan had UW’s

2 HBs ran for 100+ yards for Michigan. Mullings carried the ball 3 times for 21 yards(I believe he should've been used a lot more)It wasn't the HBs that were doing anything special.  There was huge holes to run thru

 

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22 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

One of my fav tweets from last night was a hopeful Michigan commit (Gatlin Bair) asking who won the OL award.  😊@Wooderson

 

IMG_8063.jpeg

I knew Michigan had a top-tier OL.  I did not know until the game that they had won the Joe Moore award in ‘21 and ‘22.  Maybe UW’s selection was influenced a bit by DEI 😂

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15 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

2 HBs ran for 100+ yards for Michigan. Mullings carried the ball 3 times for 21 yards(I believe he should've been used a lot more)It wasn't the HBs that were doing anything special.  There was huge holes to run thru

 

Agreed.  The 2 long TD runs early were from massive holes.   

I think even Red could have gained 5 yards on those 2 plays.  😉  Well maybe one play.  

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8 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

2 HBs ran for 100+ yards for Michigan. Mullings carried the ball 3 times for 21 yards(I believe he should've been used a lot more)It wasn't the HBs that were doing anything special.  There was huge holes to run thru

 

There were.  Michigan looked great.  But, after the first quarter, that advantage was manageable.  I know you were hating the Michigan play-calling when their domination sputtered, but early their formations were causing confusion that created as many lanes as UM’s OL.  I thought UW’s defense made an adjustment in Q2 that coulda/ shoulda allowed them to come back.  Don’t remember if it was his first or second 40+ TD run, but one of them was stuffed at LOS before he made great individual move to bounce outside.  
 

UW kept appearing to have the momentum and just failed to capitalize time and again — again, credit UM for pressure, etc, but there was also misfired passes and dropped balls that were abnormal 

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