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Week 4 Tiers


Sammyswordsman

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8 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Having teams travel up and down weekly especially between Tiers 1-2 is bogus IMO. Never should’ve demoted DV and IMG this week. They deserve better. 

IT is not so much as IMG and DV got demoted, it was more the case that MD and SJB widened the gap to far. 

 

That is how the snap shot looks right now.  It can change weekly.

Look at these facts.

SJC lost to SJP which lost to Marietta which lost by 14 to Grayson.

So beating SJC is a "meh" win in terms of street cred for Tier 1. 

Take the SJC win away from Duncanville and IMG, and what other credentials do they have?

On the other hand MD crushed SFA, which has crushed their other opponnents

SJB crushed DeMatha which crushed Iggy.

There is just a huge difference in these teams.   I would move DeMatha into Tier 2 before I would move DV and IMG up to Tier 1 based on the info in front of us right now.

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30 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Let the games play out. It’s fairer to downgrade teams from T1 than to upgrade them from T2. 

Going into the season I had the following teams as Tier 1 (and I am sure you would have as well)

Tier 1 - SFA, SJC, IMG, MD, SJB, North Shore, Duncanville.

Week 1 - North shore loses which drags down Duncanville.  Both North shore and Duncanville were suppsed to be Juggernaughts and invincible.  North shore looked BAD against Katy.

              - SJP loses to Marietta

Week 2 - SJC loses to SJP (by 4) which dilutes SJC value as a scalp. 

Week 3 - IMG only beats SJP by 6 and trailed at halftime

Week 4 - IMG tied at half 7-7 vs. SJC, and then falls behind in Q3.

            - Marietta loses to Grayson.

 

Based on these results there appears to be a tight bunch with IMG, SFA, Duncanville, North Shore, Katy,  but due to the blowouts of SFA and DeMatha by MD and SJB, there seems to be significant separation from the fore mentioned bunch of teams.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

I prefer to have teams EARN Tier 1.

IF IMG destroys SFA then they Earned Tier 1. 

If Duncanville can beat Katy and Nothshore, then they earn Tier 1.

If Mater Dei or SJB struggle against any teams (besides each other) then that opens the door for more teams to move into Tier 1.

 

Tier 1 is relative among the teams that are in it.  Right now I see too big of a gap between MD/SJB and everyone else.

Duncanville won’t see Katy/ North Shore until State. They’re on opposite sides of the bracket. It’ll be one or the other.

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1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

IT is not so much as IMG and DV got demoted, it was more the case that MD and SJB widened the gap to far. 

 

That is how the snap shot looks right now.  It can change weekly.

Look at these facts.

SJC lost to SJP which lost to Marietta which lost by 14 to Grayson.

So beating SJC is a "meh" win in terms of street cred for Tier 1. 

Take the SJC win away from Duncanville and IMG, and what other credentials do they have?

On the other hand MD crushed SFA, which has crushed their other opponnents

SJB crushed DeMatha which crushed Iggy.

There is just a huge difference in these teams.   I would move DeMatha into Tier 2 before I would move DV and IMG up to Tier 1 based on the info in front of us right now.

How about 2018 Duncanville giving the storied Southlake Carroll their worse loss in the history of the program. 
 

Southlake Carroll: 8x State champion, 3x National champion.

Being one of 3 teams to take out Allen, Tx in the last 7 seasons. 

2018 North Shore had the talent and coaching to beat down anyone not named Mater Dei or St. John Bosco.

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3 minutes ago, SeaShells21 said:

How about 2018 Duncanville giving the storied Southlake Carroll their worse loss in the history of the program. 
 

Southlake Carroll: 8x State champion, 3x National champion.

Being one of 3 teams to take out Allen, Tx in the last 7 seasons. 

2018 North Shore had the talent and coaching to beat down anyone not named Mater Dei or St. John Bosco.

Duncanville and North Shore both finished 2018 in Tier 1

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1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Going into the season I had the following teams as Tier 1 (and I am sure you would have as well)

Tier 1 - SFA, SJC, IMG, MD, SJB, North Shore, Duncanville.

Week 1 - North shore loses which drags down Duncanville.  Both North shore and Duncanville were suppsed to be Juggernaughts and invincible.  North shore looked BAD against Katy.

              - SJP loses to Marietta

Week 2 - SJC loses to SJP (by 4) which dilutes SJC value as a scalp. 

Week 3 - IMG only beats SJP by 6 and trailed at halftime

Week 4 - IMG tied at half 7-7 vs. SJC, and then falls behind in Q3.

            - Marietta loses to Grayson.

 

Based on these results there appears to be a tight bunch with IMG, SFA, Duncanville, North Shore, Katy,  but due to the blowouts of SFA and DeMatha by MD and SJB, there seems to be significant separation from the fore mentioned bunch of teams.

 

 

 

If you knew a little more about Katy and their history it wouldn’t be awkward that North Shore looked “bad” against them. 

2016, 2017 were Katy’s dullest years since the mid 90’s and that involved a semi-final appearance for them in 2017. 

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1 minute ago, SeaShells21 said:

If you knew a little more about Katy and their history it wouldn’t be awkward that North Shore looked “bad” against them. 

2016, 2017 were Katy’s dullest years since the mid 90’s and that involved a semi-final appearance for them in 2017. 

I know plenty about Katy.  They are a solid Tier 1/2 team right now and can also end up in Tier 1. 

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4 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:
 
 

Tier 1 -  Mater Dei, St. John Bosco,

Tier 2 -   Duncanville, STA, Katy, St. Louis (Hi), SFA, IMG

Tier 3  -  DLS,  DeMatha,   OLGC, Bishop Gorman, North Shore, Lakeland, Grayson, Lowndes

Tier 4 -   Cen10, SJR,  SJP,  SJC, Marietta, Gonzaga, Cathedral Catholic, Chandler, Saguaro,  McEachern

Tier 5 -   Colerain, , Longview, Pickering Central, Dutch Fork, Mallard Creek, Corner Canyon (UT), Columbia, Mission Viejo, Allen, Colquitt,  Allen,  Mentor, St. Xavier, St. Eds,  Northwestern, Narbonne,  Miami Central, North Gwinett, Valdosta,  Lone Peak

Tier 6  - Guyer, Servite, Alemeny Westlake (Tx), JSerra, Alemeny, Hoover, Grace Bretheren, Milton, Trinity*, Buford, Guyer, Hoban, Iggy, Bergen Catholic, Folsom, Centennial AZ, Lincoln Way East.  East St. Louis

 

*Requests to add your team will be honored.  But must be Tier 6 or above to be placed on a Tier.

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

*Teams are ranked appropriately for that week in the season.  Teams can improve and regress comparatively.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Another good job Sammy 👌🏻

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4 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Have you been ingesting what you have been watching?  Two weeks ago you were on the SFA bandwagon as the greatest team ever in HS football. 

Lets see what a real Tier 1 teams does vs. SJC before you comment.

Lets see if IMG can beat SFA.

The loser of a close game between MD and SJB will stay in Tier 1

If the point differential is more than 10 points the loser must drop a tier, per the rules.

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6 minutes ago, Kalven said:

Undefeated.

SJC is still better than anyone on SJB schedule so far. 

Had you put MD by themselves than I have  no issue but if you put SJB than you have to consider DV and IMG

Good points.  But SJB decisively beat De Matha and OLGC, both of which are undefeated otherwise, and DeMatha rolled Iggy 45-0.  Saying SJC is better than those teams is a strreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetch

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