Ohio Week 5 Predictions/Discussion

[OdbCle]

At the halfway point, here's how I think the top ten shapes up:

1. Mentor - close wins over Ed's and Ignatius to start the year; dismantling everyone else on their schedule; but the comeback win to beat the Wildcats is looking less impressive; certainly not a defense that would merit a number one ranking 

2. St. Edward - as is the case with these Lombardo-coached teams, the Eagles are rounding into form as the year goes on; O'Malley has come into his own as the signal caller, and Formani is a one-man wrecking crew; offense is still without Wainwright, but not missing a beat; defense starting to live up to the pre-season expectations as Hankins has healed up (he had a monster game against WW); still have to avoid giving up the big plays on third downs

3. Hoban - I'm a little hesitant to put them here, but they are just too damn talented; the loss to Ignatius was a complete meltdown after punishing them right out of the gates; the next game against a surprise 5-0 Benedictine is starting to look interesting and is the only game of note for the rest of the year until the playoffs 

4. St. Xavier - the close game to Moe was a real head -scratcher, but that is a rivalry game and Moe was able to hit the big plays for scores (including a KO return for a TD); the offense has been taking flight under the new coordinator; the defense does not appear to be at the level of years past, and a very potent Elder offense is coming into town

5. Colerain - top notch defense once again; offense still a work in progress but getting there

6. Elder - case could be made that they are too low here, but their defense is still a mess against good offenses; their offense on the other hand is one of the best in the state; really looking forward to the X game this week

7. Massillon - others might not have them this high, but they've got some studs on offense and their defense isn't giving up much on the other end; "who have they played" is the question; we might not know how good they really are until a playoff matchup with Hoban, but the Tigers are looking very good right now

8. LaSalle - another team that hasn't really beaten anyone with a pulse, but damn is their defense looking stout; GCL play will tell us a lot more, but I've got them here for now

9. Fairfield - admittedly I haven't seen them play yet, just looking at results so far and going by what I'm hearing from the SWO folks; I know McClain is a stud, and the defense may be legit as well

10. Winton Woods - I struggled with who to put in this ten spot; if WW can clean up the penalties and get a better effort from their coaching staff, there is no reason to believe they shouldn't seriously contend for the D2 title; too much talent not to; big road test awaits against Christian Brothers, and they better hope they have Williams back in action

[hardhit1]

25 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

At the halfway point, here's how I think the top ten shapes up:

1. Mentor - close wins over Ed's and Ignatius to start the year; dismantling everyone else on their schedule; but the comeback win to beat the Wildcats is looking less impressive; certainly not a defense that would merit a number one ranking 

2. St. Edward - as is the case with these Lombardo-coached teams, the Eagles are rounding into form as the year goes on; O'Malley has come into his own as the signal caller, and Formani is a one-man wrecking crew; offense is still without Wainwright, but not missing a beat; defense starting to live up to the pre-season expectations as Hankins has healed up (he had a monster game against WW); still have to avoid giving up the big plays on third downs

3. Hoban - I'm a little hesitant to put them here, but they are just too damn talented; the loss to Ignatius was a complete meltdown after punishing them right out of the gates; the next game against a surprise 5-0 Benedictine is starting to look interesting and is the only game of note for the rest of the year until the playoffs 

4. St. Xavier - the close game to Moe was a real head -scratcher, but that is a rivalry game and Moe was able to hit the big plays for scores (including a KO return for a TD); the offense has been taking flight under the new coordinator; the defense does not appear to be at the level of years past, and a very potent Elder offense is coming into town

5. Colerain - top notch defense once again; offense still a work in progress but getting there

6. Elder - case could be made that they are too low here, but their defense is still a mess against good offenses; their offense on the other hand is one of the best in the state; really looking forward to the X game this week

7. Massillon - others might not have them this high, but they've got some studs on offense and their defense isn't giving up much on the other end; "who have they played" is the question; we might not know how good they really are until a playoff matchup with Hoban, but the Tigers are looking very good right now

8. LaSalle - another team that hasn't really beaten anyone with a pulse, but damn is their defense looking stout; GCL play will tell us a lot more, but I've got them here for now

9. Fairfield - admittedly I haven't seen them play yet, just looking at results so far and going by what I'm hearing from the SWO folks; I know McClain is a stud, and the defense may be legit as well

10. Winton Woods - I struggled with who to put in this ten spot; if WW can clean up the penalties and get a better effort from their coaching staff, there is no reason to believe they shouldn't seriously contend for the D2 title; too much talent not to; big road test awaits against Christian Brothers, and they better hope they have Williams back in action

I like your rankings

Where is Iggy? I mentioned they would not be in my top 10 yesterday. And they are only #8 in NE Ohio poll that just came out. 

[nptb17]

32 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

At the halfway point, here's how I think the top ten shapes up:

1. Mentor - close wins over Ed's and Ignatius to start the year; dismantling everyone else on their schedule; but the comeback win to beat the Wildcats is looking less impressive; certainly not a defense that would merit a number one ranking 

2. St. Edward - as is the case with these Lombardo-coached teams, the Eagles are rounding into form as the year goes on; O'Malley has come into his own as the signal caller, and Formani is a one-man wrecking crew; offense is still without Wainwright, but not missing a beat; defense starting to live up to the pre-season expectations as Hankins has healed up (he had a monster game against WW); still have to avoid giving up the big plays on third downs

3. Hoban - I'm a little hesitant to put them here, but they are just too damn talented; the loss to Ignatius was a complete meltdown after punishing them right out of the gates; the next game against a surprise 5-0 Benedictine is starting to look interesting and is the only game of note for the rest of the year until the playoffs 

4. St. Xavier - the close game to Moe was a real head -scratcher, but that is a rivalry game and Moe was able to hit the big plays for scores (including a KO return for a TD); the offense has been taking flight under the new coordinator; the defense does not appear to be at the level of years past, and a very potent Elder offense is coming into town

5. Colerain - top notch defense once again; offense still a work in progress but getting there

6. Elder - case could be made that they are too low here, but their defense is still a mess against good offenses; their offense on the other hand is one of the best in the state; really looking forward to the X game this week

7. Massillon - others might not have them this high, but they've got some studs on offense and their defense isn't giving up much on the other end; "who have they played" is the question; we might not know how good they really are until a playoff matchup with Hoban, but the Tigers are looking very good right now

8. LaSalle - another team that hasn't really beaten anyone with a pulse, but damn is their defense looking stout; GCL play will tell us a lot more, but I've got them here for now

9. Fairfield - admittedly I haven't seen them play yet, just looking at results so far and going by what I'm hearing from the SWO folks; I know McClain is a stud, and the defense may be legit as well

10. Winton Woods - I struggled with who to put in this ten spot; if WW can clean up the penalties and get a better effort from their coaching staff, there is no reason to believe they shouldn't seriously contend for the D2 title; too much talent not to; big road test awaits against Christian Brothers, and they better hope they have Williams back in action

I would put Elder above St. X and Colerain.  That will work itself out.  I'm calling Fairfield over Colerain.  I would still rank Colerain higher because Fairfield hasn't beaten them in ages but I think it happens this year.  

 

Benedictine is a squad I would put in there and drop Winton Woods.

[concha]

29 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

At the halfway point, here's how I think the top ten shapes up:

1. Mentor - close wins over Ed's and Ignatius to start the year; dismantling everyone else on their schedule; but the comeback win to beat the Wildcats is looking less impressive; certainly not a defense that would merit a number one ranking 

2. St. Edward - as is the case with these Lombardo-coached teams, the Eagles are rounding into form as the year goes on; O'Malley has come into his own as the signal caller, and Formani is a one-man wrecking crew; offense is still without Wainwright, but not missing a beat; defense starting to live up to the pre-season expectations as Hankins has healed up (he had a monster game against WW); still have to avoid giving up the big plays on third downs

3. Hoban - I'm a little hesitant to put them here, but they are just too damn talented; the loss to Ignatius was a complete meltdown after punishing them right out of the gates; the next game against a surprise 5-0 Benedictine is starting to look interesting and is the only game of note for the rest of the year until the playoffs 

4. St. Xavier - the close game to Moe was a real head -scratcher, but that is a rivalry game and Moe was able to hit the big plays for scores (including a KO return for a TD); the offense has been taking flight under the new coordinator; the defense does not appear to be at the level of years past, and a very potent Elder offense is coming into town

5. Colerain - top notch defense once again; offense still a work in progress but getting there

6. Elder - case could be made that they are too low here, but their defense is still a mess against good offenses; their offense on the other hand is one of the best in the state; really looking forward to the X game this week

7. Massillon - others might not have them this high, but they've got some studs on offense and their defense isn't giving up much on the other end; "who have they played" is the question; we might not know how good they really are until a playoff matchup with Hoban, but the Tigers are looking very good right now

8. LaSalle - another team that hasn't really beaten anyone with a pulse, but damn is their defense looking stout; GCL play will tell us a lot more, but I've got them here for now

9. Fairfield - admittedly I haven't seen them play yet, just looking at results so far and going by what I'm hearing from the SWO folks; I know McClain is a stud, and the defense may be legit as well

10. Winton Woods - I struggled with who to put in this ten spot; if WW can clean up the penalties and get a better effort from their coaching staff, there is no reason to believe they shouldn't seriously contend for the D2 title; too much talent not to; big road test awaits against Christian Brothers, and they better hope they have Williams back in action

As regards the X- Moeller game, I'm not sure if you watched it.

First, as you might imagine, X did not have it's best game.

Moe's competitiveness hinged on just three plays. The first was a TD run on the opening kick-off.  Then early in the game their QB dropped a couple of dimes on long passes for TDs.  Moe had little to no offense after about the 11 minute mark of the 2nd quarter.

133 of Moe's 251 yards of offense came on two plays. Apart from those two bombs, they averaged 2.8 yards per play.

First downs? 25 to 6 in favor of X

Total yards?  461 to 251 for X

TOP?  29:24 to 18:36

 

 

 

[nptb17]

1 minute ago, concha said:

As regards the X- Moeller game, I'm not sure if you watched it.

First, as you might imagine, X did not have it's best game.

Moe's competitiveness hinged on just three plays. The first was a TD run on the opening kick-off.  Then early in the game their QB dropped a couple of dimes on long passes for TDs.  Moe had little to no offense after about the 11 minute mark of the 2nd quarter.

133 of Moe's 251 yards of offense came on two plays. Apart from those two bombs, they averaged 2.8 yards per play.

First downs? 25 to 6 in favor of X

Total yards?  461 to 251 for X

TOP?  29:24 to 18:36

 

 

 

It was a 4 quarter game when all is said and done.  Moeller had been running clocked by every decent opponent they played until this past Friday.  

[concha]

7 minutes ago, nptb17 said:

It was a 4 quarter game when all is said and done.  Moeller had been running clocked by every decent opponent they played until this past Friday.  

 

I never said it wasn't.

I stated what happened.

If you had to bet bet your life on a rematch, do you think it would be remotely as close as what happened on Friday night?  Shit happens.

X has wins over the current calpreps #2 and #3 teams in Indiana plus Colerain.  Please tell me you aren't putting X on the level of Moeller because of three plays.

.

[hardhit1]

I saw some of the X game. This was a rivalry game so the results are never what you expect.

i like X and think they have some upside so let’s see how they look this weekend.

[nptb17]

2 minutes ago, concha said:

 

I never said it wasn't.

I stated what happened.

If you had to bet bet your life on a rematch, do you think it be remotely as close as what happened on Friday night?  Shit happens.

X has wins over the current calpreps #2 and #3 teams in Indiana plus Colerain.  Please tell me you aren't putting X on the level of Moeller because of three plays.

.

There will be no rematch because Moeller isn't sniffing the playoffs.  I like St. X on offense this year.  Their defense is not that good.  Moeller has been able to do nothing against anyone and all of the sudden they find some offense weather it's one or two plays.  And then Moeller shuts them out in the second half.  

You know the X coaches will be letting their kids know that a performance like that this week gets them a comfortable loss.

[nptb17]

4 minutes ago, hardhit1 said:

I saw some of the X game. This was a rivalry game so the results are never what you expect.

i like X and think they have some upside so let’s see how they look this weekend.

Most of Moeller schedule are rivals of some type.

[concha]

Just now, nptb17 said:

There will be no rematch because Moeller isn't sniffing the playoffs.  I like St. X on offense this year.  Their defense is not that good.  Moeller has been able to do nothing against anyone and all of the sudden they find some offense weather it's one or two plays.  And then Moeller shuts them out in the second half.  

You know the X coaches will be letting their kids know that a performance like that this week gets them a comfortable loss.

 

As I said, it was not X's finest hour.

It was one game.

Of course Specht and Co. will looking to fix shit. Especially big plays early in games. Brownsburg, Cathedral and Moe have scored early that way and forced X to come from behind. Unacceptable.

[OdbCle]

1 hour ago, hardhit1 said:

I like your rankings

Where is Iggy? I mentioned they would not be in my top 10 yesterday. And they are only #8 in NE Ohio poll that just came out. 

I honestly don't know where to put them at this point. You could argue they belong anywhere from 11-20.  I do believe that a healthy Ignatius team has a spot somewhere in the top ten. There is plenty to like about their team. Cmiel is a hell of a wideout, and Cook has been very good as well out of the slot. Welsch is a bruising runner who consistently moves the sticks. Hanna is streaky at QB, but when he finds a rhythm, he can get it going. The o-line is big and has D1 guys on it. A kicker who has hit multiple 50+ yarders. On defense, the front seven is very solid and I really like the linebackers McNamara and Hubbard. Daugstrup looked like he was coming on as a DE before he reinjured himself (rumors floating it may be an ACL). The biggest deficiency is the secondary, but we knew that coming into the season. The lack of speed back there has been exploited by just about every team they've faced. If the front seven doesn't get pressure, or if a back springs loose into the secondary, it's sayonora. 

I thought they really figured it out in that Hoban game. A no-huddle offense that allowed Hanna to make quicker reads and throws. Daugstrup at DE to give them more athleticism from the outside. But then they completely abandoned that against Dematha in the early going and got boat-raced. 

[prepsbill65]

1 hour ago, nptb17 said:

It was a 4 quarter game when all is said and done.  Moeller had been running clocked by every decent opponent they played until this past Friday.  

Not sure why the bug-a boo against StX.  You have touted Elder from day one, so lets see what happens Friday night. 

Elder may have a edge against StX on offense, but X has a distinctive edge on defense.  I look to the Colerain, Cathedral, Moeller games in particular and they made the plays defensively, when they needed to.  X's D gave up long TD's in all three games, yet still  won.  D is good enough to slow down Elder, IMO. 

[hardhit1]

30 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

I honestly don't know where to put them at this point. You could argue they belong anywhere from 11-20.  I do believe that a healthy Ignatius team has a spot somewhere in the top ten. There is plenty to like about their team. Cmiel is a hell of a wideout, and Cook has been very good as well out of the slot. Welsch is a bruising runner who consistently moves the sticks. Hanna is streaky at QB, but when he finds a rhythm, he can get it going. The o-line is big and has D1 guys on it. A kicker who has hit multiple 50+ yarders. On defense, the front seven is very solid and I really like the linebackers McNamara and Hubbard. Daugstrup looked like he was coming on as a DE before he reinjured himself (rumors floating it may be an ACL). The biggest deficiency is the secondary, but we knew that coming into the season. The lack of speed back there has been exploited by just about every team they've faced. If the front seven doesn't get pressure, or if a back springs loose into the secondary, it's sayonora. 

I thought they really figured it out in that Hoban game. A no-huddle offense that allowed Hanna to make quicker reads and throws. Daugstrup at DE to give them more athleticism from the outside. But then they completely abandoned that against Dematha in the early going and got boat-raced. 

I was kinda joking when asking about where they are but good assessment.

they were just ranked 14 in Ohio D1 so we are both correct that they are not a top 10 team at this point and right now are only #12 in the regional computer polls. So they need to turn it around or no playoffs this year. 

[hardhit1]

16 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Who wins this weekend? X or Elder??? I'm torn. Thx. 

Flip a coin. I think you would get half going each way.

gut feeling says X 

[prepsbill65]

14 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Who wins this weekend? X or Elder??? I'm torn. Thx. 

Firmly believe StX wins this game.  StX actually has a consistent offense this year (New coordinator from Lou. Trinity -Andrew Coverdale).

Believe it comes down to defense,  which I feel StX has the advantage.     Plus....games at StX. (which makes a difference).

[Nolebull813]

20 hours ago, Coletrain06 said:

Simple. Mentor + Iggy aren't very good at defense.

Also Iggy's 3 best Defenders didn't play against Clarkson North. That said, Iggy fans still consider this loss to be the worst in program history. DeMatha loss probably #2 😆

The Canadian team is a Canadian all star team and has been playing the GCL, Eds, and Iggy for many years. They played Mentor already this year, although they only played a half due to weather. Over the years they've been closing the gap. Their offense is legit. Their defense is not very good. 

Mentor typically gets in shootouts with good teams. It's pretty common for them against good teams to score a lot and win by a score or so. A lot like past Cen10 teams.

Will all those be out this week? Asking for a friend 

[nptb17]

3 hours ago, prepsbill65 said:

Not sure why the bug-a boo against StX.  You have touted Elder from day one, so lets see what happens Friday night. 

Elder may have a edge against StX on offense, but X has a distinctive edge on defense.  I look to the Colerain, Cathedral, Moeller games in particular and they made the plays defensively, when they needed to.  X's D gave up long TD's in all three games, yet still  won.  D is good enough to slow down Elder, IMO. 

They have both played Cathedral.  A lot of folk looked to the Cathedral game to question the Elder defense.  Cathedral had just as much success against X as they did against Elder.  Colerain's offense was not good in week 1.  It's probably not all that great right now but I'll let train and company speak on that.  Moeller is terrible.  Moeller's offense was able to get some things off that they haven't been able to get off on any of the good squads they played all year.  St. X defense has not been good.  Elder's hasn't either.  Shootout is what that screams to me and I like Elder's offense better.

[Coletrain06]

5 hours ago, Nolebull813 said:

Will all those be out this week? Asking for a friend 

Not sure. 

TE/DE Sam Daugstrup was out and is rumored to have another ACL injury. 

DE Anthony Gerace was out

LB Michael McNamara was also out.

RB Ryan Waldron also missed the game and may be out for an extended period.

 

[OhioFootball]

On 9/29/2019 at 7:02 PM, Coletrain06 said:

Simple. Mentor + Iggy aren't very good at defense.

Also Iggy's 3 best Defenders didn't play against Clarkson North. That said, Iggy fans still consider this loss to be the worst in program history. DeMatha loss probably #2 😆

The Canadian team is a Canadian all star team and has been playing the GCL, Eds, and Iggy for many years. They played Mentor already this year, although they only played a half due to weather. Over the years they've been closing the gap. Their offense is legit. Their defense is not very good. 

Mentor typically gets in shootouts with good teams. It's pretty common for them against good teams to score a lot and win by a score or so. A lot like past Cen10 teams.

The stereotype that Mentor can’t play defense has been a little overblown the last few years. While obviously not their strength, they’ve come up when they needed to. 

[Coletrain06]

44 minutes ago, OhioFootball said:

The stereotype that Mentor can’t play defense has been a little overblown the last few years. While obviously not their strength, they’ve come up when they needed to. 

I agree, for 2017 and 2018, Mentor was definitely better at defense. 

This year looks much closer to a traditional Mentor defense IMO. 

 

[RedZone]

18 hours ago, concha said:

Of course Specht and Co. will looking to fix shit. Especially big plays early in games

How many years has Specht and Co. been trying to fix shit now?

[prepsbill65]

17 hours ago, nptb17 said:

They have both played Cathedral.  A lot of folk looked to the Cathedral game to question the Elder defense.  Cathedral had just as much success against X as they did against Elder.  Colerain's offense was not good in week 1.  It's probably not all that great right now but I'll let train and company speak on that.  Moeller is terrible.  Moeller's offense was able to get some things off that they haven't been able to get off on any of the good squads they played all year.  St. X defense has not been good.  Elder's hasn't either.  Shootout is what that screams to me and I like Elder's offense better.

The X games have come down to defense in the second half.  For the record,  X has given up only 27 total points, in the second half, in their 5 games this season.  Granted first half's have been spotty at best, but they have made the adjustments at halftime.  You really do not want to be playing from behind, like the last 2 weeks.  Taking the Blue Bombers here.

[Coletrain06]

Here's my top 10 after week 5.

1 - Mentor- Great offense. Great skill players in QB Kipp, RB Trobel, and WR Floreia. Line play, which was a concern, looks good. Defense is suspect.

2 - St. Edward - Really getting better each and every week. Great Line play. Good decision makers at QB Omalley, bull at FB Formani, great WR's in Foster and Wainwright. Strong D Front and solid secondary. 

3 - Hoban - Hoban talented everywhere, and good everywhere. Still feel like they shit the bed against Iggy after having a 4 score lead. I think Hoban wins that game vast majority of times.

4 - St. X - The bombers have a nice capable QB who fits their system very nicely. TE Lang is one of the best around, and a game changer. Clifford is a very good WR too. X's run D has been pretty stellar. They are definitely vulnerable against the pass. 

5 - Elder - Elder has very good Line Play. Their QB Luebbe is quick and can run or throw. They have some nice WR's and another complete game changer in TE Royer. Elder's D is usually pretty bad, mostly because of how much they struggle with speed.

6 - Colerain - I'm not a fan of having the Cards this high, but I simply don't think the other teams have proven enough yet. Colerains D is very good again this year. The DLine is dominant. The LB's are very good, and the mostly young Secondary has figured out most of their coverage issues. The offense is still a work in progress, especially with a new OC. QB Freddie Johnson is a great athlete, but still learning the right reads and timing. Sophomore FB Flowers is a load and will be special by time he's a senior. Colerain has 5 WB's that they use, with Thomas being the most effective by far, however his Offensive snaps are limited because he also starts at LB. As this offense gets better, Colerain will be a much more formidable contender.

7 - Massillon - I haven't seen them yet this year, and admittedly don't know much about them. Going off of everyone else's opinions.

8 - Fairfield - Fairfield is very good on both sides of the ball. Their RB McClain is probably the best speed/shifty back in Ohio. They are very solid on both Lines, have a good athlete at QB, and very solid WR's. Their Defense is solid up front, very good LB's, and a pretty good secondary. The only reason Fairfield isnt higher, is they haven't been able to get over that hump. Fairfield vs Colerain in Week 10 is shaping up to be very exciting!

9 - Winton Woods - WW is very talented with tons of athletes. Their offense is pretty good with power RB Miyan Williams being one of the state's best. QB Wingfield and WR Blankumsee are both great, and RB Steele is also very good. WW may be more vulnerable on D than originally thought. Penalties, discipline, and coaching adjustments are WW's biggest issue. If they clean that up, their talent will be hard to overcome.

10 - La Salle - La Salle hasn't really played any really solid teams yet. They are blowing everybody out, though. I have only see bits from La Salle's games, so I'm not very familiar with them this year. We'll have to wait till GCL play. 

Others: St. Ignatius, Olentangy Liberty, Groveport-Madison, Pickerington Central, Benedictine, TCC, Euclid, Springfield. 

[Omaha Vol]

26 minutes ago, Coletrain06 said:

Others: St. Ignatius, Olentangy Liberty, Groveport-Madison, Pickerington Central, Benedictine, TCC, Euclid, Springfield. 

Does Westerfield Central fit into your “others” category? 

[Coletrain06]

40 minutes ago, Omaha Vol said:

Does Westerfield Central fit into your “others” category? 

Westerville Central? No, probably not even close 

I'd be surprised if Olentangy Liberty lost to them.