The Stock Market

[HSFBfan]

49 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Direct exposure to too much UV can be bad for your health. 

But is their a good amount 

[DarterBlue]

The Big Boys Report Tomorrow: Tomorrow, AAPL, FB, GOOG and AMZN all report earnings. Without checking, I believe some do so before the bell and I am sure some after. It could make for an explosive day as AAPL and AMZN have been big leaders in the Covid-19 bull market. FB and GOOG have also led but to a lesser degree. What they have to say will set the tone for the market for the next several weeks. Why? Two reasons: 1. As a practical matter, these four stocks make up a disproportionate percentage of both the NASDAQ and S&P capitalization. If they tank, it will be very hard for these two indices to continue their upward path unless a number of the stocks in the tier just below them go on an explosive tear. 2. Their health or lack of health will say a lot about the tech sector's ability to make money in a Covid environment. Stay tuned for the drama.

TEAM (Atlassian) which I own, reports after the closing bell tomorrow. My plan is to treat it in similar fashion to how I treated SHOP today. It if falls significantly, I will sell it and in this case take the likely loss. On the other hand, if it gaps up, and can hold its gains, I will continue to hold it. I will likely place a stop loss on it if it gaps up. However, this will be in the mid $170s, as the stock, unlike SHOP has been basing, and that is the area it should find support if it is still healthy.

Around earnings season, it is very important to have a specific game plan ahead of time, particularly when you own issues that are much more volatile than the market. I share these thoughts as teaching moments for those that care to comprehend what a disciplined trader does.  

[imaGoodBoyNow]

31 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

The Big Boys Report Tomorrow: Tomorrow, AAPL, FB, GOOG and AMZN all report earnings. Without checking, I believe some do so before the bell and I am sure some after. It could make for an explosive day as AAPL and AMZN have been big leaders in the Covid-19 bull market. FB and GOOG have also led but to a lesser degree. What they have to say will set the tone for the market for the next several weeks. Why? Two reasons: 1. As a practical matter, these four stocks make up a disproportionate percentage of both the NASDAQ and S&P capitalization. If they tank, it will be very hard for these two indices to continue their upward path unless a number of the stocks in the tier just below them go on an explosive tear. 2. Their health or lack of health will say a lot about the tech sector's ability to make money in a Covid environment. Stay tuned for the drama.

TEAM (Atlassian) which I own, reports after the closing bell tomorrow. My plan is to treat it in similar fashion to how I treated SHOP today. It if falls significantly, I will sell it and in this case take the likely loss. On the other hand, if it gaps up, and can hold its gains, I will continue to hold it. I will likely place a stop loss on it if it gaps up. However, this will be in the mid $170s, as the stock, unlike SHOP has been basing, and that is the area it should find support if it is still healthy.

Around earnings season, it is very important to have a specific game plan ahead of time, particularly when you own issues that are much more volatile than the market. I share these thoughts as teaching moments for those that care to comprehend what a disciplined trader does.  

I was gonna ask you this week, when day trading and swing trading,

 the day before and that day of earnings, are most stocks more volatile that day, after earnings is released?

 

 

[DarterBlue]

17 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I was gonna ask you this week, when day trading and swing trading,

 the day before and that day of earnings, are most stocks more volatile that day, after earnings is released?

 

 

It depends on market conditions. But the broad answer is yes, most stocks react significantly to earnings, positively or negatively. That is why sometimes in the past, I will trade the current options contract (call or put) around a stock with earnings due in the current week. It doesn't mean they always do, but more often than not, you will get a bump either way of at least 3% but sometimes in the double digit percentages. Most stocks don't go up or down 3% or more in an ordinary day. So, if you are a swing trader, you certainly want to know when the next earnings are due, as they could greatly impact your trade. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

It depends on market conditions. But the broad answer is yes, most stocks react significantly to earnings, positively or negatively. That is why sometimes in the past, I will trade the current options contract (call or put) around a stock with earnings due in the current week. It doesn't mean they always do, but more often than not, you will get a bump either way of at least 3% but sometimes in the double digit percentages. Most stocks don't go up or down 3% or more in an ordinary day. So, if you are a swing trader, you certainly want to know when the next earnings are due, as they could greatly impact your trade. 

At this point I learned my lesson swing trading for home runs  , I’d only look for stocks that have a chance of moving +60% in a day  now I settle with 3% -%15 is a good day

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

At this point I learned my lesson swing trading for home runs  , I’d only look for stocks that have a chance of moving +60% in a day  now I settle with 3% -%15 is a good day

Stocks that move 60% in a couple days are usually low priced, unsustainable issues. The problem with these is that they don't hold their gains and usually reverse and give them up just as quickly. These are stocks being manipulated by insiders or shady brokers and can burn you very easily. Unless you have inside information, it is very difficult to make money off these kinds of stocks consistently. If you can do so, you are a better man than me. 

I try and stick with better quality, more liquid stocks. You can still get 10% moves on them frequently in a matter of days if you know what technical signs to look for when buying them. And, they don't usually collapse on you, so the timing does not have to be as precise. I still prefer position trading which means holding winners for several months. Currently three of the stocks I own are up in the 40%+ range: ZM, SHOP and TTD. I have held all three for about 2 months. To me, a 40% return for holding 2 months is plenty. If you can hit several of those in a year, you will do just fine. And, based on the way I screen my buys, that's not an unrealistic thing to expect. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue thoughts on apples Revrse split 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/30/apple-stock-split-announced.html

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue thoughts on apples Revrse split 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/30/apple-stock-split-announced.html

Actually, it's not a reverse split. It is a 4-1 regular split. Back in the day (1990s and early 2000s) such splits were common. 2-1s were considered bullish but 3-1s and greater were considered signs of a top. However, as a practical matter, a split should be neither bullish nor bearish, as the ownership interest of stockholders is not affected by a split. 

In recent times, as individual investors have become less important in the investing landscape, splits have become rare. It used to be stocks would split by the time they got to $100 a share and often less. Now you have many stocks trading close to or above $1,000 and they don't split.

Apple's earnings beat reduced expectations and the stock is trading well in the after hours market. So, as of now things seem bullish. 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed mostly lower on mixed volume. NYSE volume declined while NASDAQ volume rose. This is good as the NASDAQ was up while the other indices were down. At the close, the range was from a loss of 1.08% on the NYSE to a gain of .49% on the NASDAQ 100. Losing stocks led by a 2-1 margin on the NYSE and by a 19-15 margin on the NASDAQ. Despite the fact most indices lost ground, I view the day as a constructive one. The market had opened broadly lower but all the indices gained ground from the open, indicating a level of support at current levels, and the two NASDAQ indices managed to score gains after being down about a percent shortly after the open. To make matters better, after the close, the market liked the earnings of the big tech stalwarts reported after the bell and the futures were up nicely. Should things remain the same overnight, look for the averages to gap up tomorrow.

 On a personal note, my portfolio barely budged. I lost $137 or a very small fraction of a percent. I had more stocks up than down as my only losers were: MDY, SHOP and ZM. Winners included: LCII, LOW, TTD and TEAM. However, after the close, despite beating analysts estimates by 3 cents TEAM tanked on its forward guidance. I listened to the earnings call. Management, whom I trust, had concrete reasons for the relatively weak guidance. However, I am a trader and not an investor. And the stock is down about 7.5% in after hours trade. So, unless things change overnight or the stock reverses higher before 10:30 am, I will part ways with TEAM tomorrow. If it trades where it does currently, this will translate into a loss of $4,760 from today’s closing prices and will exit me with a miniscule loss of around $400 since purchase. Obviously, this is not what I would like to see, but I have been doing this for a long time. What I do works for me. I am not an investor, but a trader. So, I must do what I must do. Should TEAM present a buying opportunity at some other time, I can repurchase it then. This is what I like about stocks. They are liquid with relatively small transactions costs. Thus, I can do what’s right for me in the moment.

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Stocks closed mostly lower on mixed volume. NYSE volume declined while NASDAQ volume rose. This is good as the NASDAQ was up while the other indices were down. At the close, the range was from a loss of 1.08% on the NYSE to a gain of .49% on the NASDAQ 100. Losing stocks led by a 2-1 margin on the NYSE and by a 19-15 margin on the NASDAQ. Despite the fact most indices lost ground, I view the day as a constructive one. The market had opened broadly lower but all the indices gained ground from the open, indicating a level of support at current levels, and the two NASDAQ indices managed to score gains after being down about a percent shortly after the open. To make matters better, after the close, the market liked the earnings of the big tech stalwarts reported after the bell and the futures were up nicely. Should things remain the same overnight, look for the averages to gap up tomorrow.

 On a personal note, my portfolio barely budged. I lost $137 or a very small fraction of a percent. I had more stocks up than down as my only losers were: MDY, SHOP and ZM. Winners included: LCII, LOW, TTD and TEAM. However, after the close, despite beating analysts estimates by 3 cents TEAM tanked on its forward guidance. I listened to the earnings call. Management, whom I trust, had concrete reasons for the relatively weak guidance. However, I am a trader and not an investor. And the stock is down about 7.5% in after hours trade. So, unless things change overnight or the stock reverses higher before 10:30 am, I will part ways with TEAM tomorrow. If it trades where it does currently, this will translate into a loss of $4,760 from today’s closing prices and will exit me with a miniscule loss of around $400 since purchase. Obviously, this is not what I would like to see, but I have been doing this for a long time. What I do works for me. I am not an investor, but a trader. So, I must do what I must do. Should TEAM present a buying opportunity at some other time, I can repurchase it then. This is what I like about stocks. They are liquid with relatively small transactions costs. Thus, I can do what’s right for me in the moment.

Isn't the tech stocks on the nasdaq?

If ur smart u drop 20k on gold. Its only going up due to the election 

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

Isn't the tech stocks on the nasdaq?

If ur smart u drop 20k on gold. Its only going up due to the election 

Yes, most of the tech stocks trade on the NASDAQ.

Regarding your recommendation, no offense intended, but I know what I am doing and don't need tips. You may notice that while I post what I buy and sell, sometimes ahead of time, I don't recommend them to anyone. Each person has to decide what they like and act accordingly. When you fully grasp this, you are on your way to success.

Thanks for understanding.

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Yes, most of the tech stocks trade on the NASDAQ.

Regarding your recommendation, no offense intended, but I know what I am doing and don't need tips. You may notice that while I post what I buy and sell, sometimes ahead of time, I don't recommend them to anyone. Each person has to decide what they like and act accordingly. When you fully grasp this, you are on your way to success.

Thanks for understanding.

I know u don't need my advice but gold is gonna go up another 1000 because of the uncertainty of the election

Why wouldn't u take advantage of that

 But that's up to u

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

I know u don't need my advice but gold is gonna go up another 1000 because of the uncertainty of the election

Why wouldn't u take advantage of that

 But that's up to u

I suggest you pull up a chart of gold and the major gold stocks such as Barrick, Newmont, Ashanti.  They all have one thing in common. They are extended from any proper buy points. I don't buy extended issues because there is no logical point to sell them at if they go against me without taking an unacceptable loss, violating my risk management criterion. 

So, even if gold and gold stocks interested me, now would not be the time I would buy them. Also, my position size is in the low $40,000 range, not $20,000. If I am not comfortable placing a full position in an issue, I go with long dated options and keep the bet in the $15,000 range or less as I did with NKLA options.

One thing I have tried to do in this thread, is to provide the information necessary for a individual trader to do this successfully. No, I am not implying that it's my way or the highway. And in any event I have purposefully not provided enough information for anyone to copy what I do, as it would be counterproductive, since you have your own psychology which is probably not compatible with mine. However, what I am implying is that you need to have a well thought out method and you need the discipline to stick with it. Any other approach yields mediocre results at best, and can lead to disaster at worst.  

[HSFBfan]

Us dollar apparently crashing 

Gold will take over

Fed appointee and trump both want gold standard back

I see a pattern 

https://rt.com/business/496719-us-economy-dollar-falling/

[HSFBfan]

18 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue thoughts on apples Revrse split 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/30/apple-stock-split-announced.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/how-apples-stock-split-will-change-the-pecking-order-in-the-124-year-old-dow-industrials-2020-07-31

[DarterBlue]

21 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue thoughts on apples Revrse split 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/30/apple-stock-split-announced.html

 

2 hours ago, HSFBfan said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/how-apples-stock-split-will-change-the-pecking-order-in-the-124-year-old-dow-industrials-2020-07-31

HSFBFan pointed you to a good article. Because the DOW is price weighted, AAPL will have a much lesser effect on it in the aftermath of the split. Given that Apple is one of its best performers, it is going to be much harder for the DOW to keep pace with the other indices going forward. It is now going to be influenced more by laggards like Boeing. 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed mostly higher on higher volume. It was a strange day, as stocks initially gapped up. However, there was never any secondary participation and by 1:00 pm all the indices were in the red, despite the tech titans all beating earnings after Thursday’s bell. However, in the final hour of trade, all the indices closed strongly and ended the day near highs. Still, despite the rally, the Mid Cap and Russell indices still ended the day substantially in the red. At the close, the range was from a loss of .98% on the Russell to a gain of 1.78% on the NASDAQ 100, home of the tech titans. Losing stocks led on both exchanges. On the NYSE they led by a margin of 17-13 while on the NASDAQ, the margin was 2-1. So, how do I view the day’s action? Surprisingly, I view it negatively. Why? Well first of all was the poor breadth and lack of secondary participation. Second, was the fact that despite the four tech heavyweights blowing away earnings estimates, the NASDAQ indices actually ventured into negative territory before reversing higher in late trade. Finally, the action in the last hour of trading seemed suspect. In the past strong closes was a mark of very bullish action. However, post the 2009 “Great Recession” such action smacks of the Fed’s “Plunge Protection Team” at work. As such, it is unclear how much of the closing strength was generic and not artificially created in our post capitalist world. With all of the above said, the market is not ready to give up the ghost yet. But I fear when it does it will be spectacular.

 On the day, I lost $270 or .05%. With this result, I closed the week up $17,958. And for the year, I am up $97,660, almost all of which was earned from April 7 to the current date, as I had been in cash, only earning interest on the balances, since late October 2019 when I closed out my puts at a loss. Given that TEAM closed down over 5%, and lost over $3,000 on the day, I felt reasonably happy with the essentially breakeven day. I can attribute it to a great gain on TTD, which offset the TEAM losses, as well as a solid day from LCII which closed at an all-time high ahead of its earnings report on Tuesday of next week before the bell. For the record, I still own TEAM. It made its day lows at about 9:45 am and mostly worked higher the rest of the day. While it did close with sizable losses, the action seemed to reflect a stock that did not want to go much lower than its lows of the day. It is on a very short leash. If it cannot hold current levels, it will be sold early next week. However, if it can, it is the type of stock that I am willing to hold through a basing patten of several weeks as I believe in the company’s products and the integrity of its management. If it cannot hold near today’s close I have four possible replacement positions waiting in the wings.

 

[HSFBfan]

@DarterBlue

I'm looking at call options for caterpillar 

Short term next week the strike price to make profit is 139

Expires next Friday do u like it

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

@DarterBlue

I'm looking at call options for caterpillar 

Short term next week the strike price to make profit is 139

Expires next Friday do u like it

I have two comments:

1. Although CAT beat estimates, the stock closed down almost 3% today. So, the Street did not like the earnings, at least not today.

2. I usually don't buy the most current expiration. The only exception is if I buy it ahead of earnings, not after. 

Putting those two together, I would not buy CAT calls with such a short expiration. I may consider the September, October or November calls, which are more expensive, but which give you months to be right.

With that said, if you are convinced that the $139s for next Friday are good for you, they could end up being profitable. But I would not take that bet.

On another note, if you really like GOLD, you may want to look at options on NEM or the Gold fund itself, GLD. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

I have two comments:

1. Although CAT beat estimates, the stock closed down almost 3% today. So, the Street did not like the earnings, at least not today.

2. I usually don't buy the most current expiration. The only exception is if I buy it ahead of earnings, not after. 

Putting those two together, I would not buy CAT calls with such a short expiration. I may consider the September, October or November calls, which are more expensive, but which give you months to be right.

With that said, if you are convinced that the $139s for next Friday are good for you, they could end up being profitable. But I would not take that bet.

On another note, if you really like GOLD, you may want to look at options on NEM or the Gold fund itself, GLD. 

Who doesn't love gold right now 

I'm trying to look at different companies options and trying to buy something cheap

Like mgm is 20 bucks on their next option call to buy 1 contract

Like i said not sure exactly what I'm doing 

[DarterBlue]

21 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Who doesn't love gold right now 

I'm trying to look at different companies options and trying to buy something cheap

Like mgm is 20 bucks on their next option call to buy 1 contract

Like i said not sure exactly what I'm doing 

It is very hard to make money on the front end contract. I believe @Trollagrees with me. It is usually better to pay up for at least a few months out. You have to give your trade some time to work. When you buy the front end contract, unless it is in the money, you are basically making an all or nothing bet. 

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

It is very hard to make money on the front end contract. I believe @Trollagrees with me. It is usually better to pay up for at least a few months out. You have to give your trade some time to work. When you buy the front end contract, unless it is in the money, you are basically making an all or nothing bet. 

Yeah but the further out I go the more expensive of a contract to buy

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Yeah but the further out I go the more expensive of a contract to buy

If you are pressed for money, don't do options. Too much risk on the front end contract. Your odds are actually better at the racetrack. The only exception to this is you have a relative or very good friend who has nonpublic knowledge. But if you trade on nonpublic knowledge, you are breaking the law and could do prison time if caught. Several years ago a famous female celebrity did a few years in prison (a club Fed), for doing this. Her name was Martha Stewart.  

[Troll]

5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Yeah but the further out I go the more expensive of a contract to buy

you need a bankroll for poker contracts

it's a game of hot potato

way safer early in the game

even if the house takes a bigger cut there...

 

PS: why you trying to bet against professionals?

BTW: darter is correcct

 

[HSFBfan]

30 minutes ago, Troll said:

you need a bankroll for poker contracts

it's a game of hot potato

way safer early in the game

even if the house takes a bigger cut there...

 

PS: why you trying to bet against professionals?

BTW: darter is correcct

 

I have 0 clue what ur talking about