HSFBfan Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: If you are pressed for money, don't do options. Too much risk on the front end contract. Your odds are actually better at the racetrack. The only exception to this is you have a relative or very good friend who has nonpublic knowledge. But if you trade on nonpublic knowledge, you are breaking the law and could do prison time if caught. Several years ago a famous female celebrity did a few years in prison (a club Fed), for doing this. Her name was Martha Stewart. who do I know that has nonpublic knowledge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: who do I know that has nonpublic knowledge Have no idea what you are doing, but trading on 'nonpublic knowledge' is not legal if that knowledge is business insider information, so you better be sure...some info is just people following the business or other things the public could find out if they bothered to look, or just plain rumor, But official company dirt I'd stay away from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Troll said: Have no idea what you are doing, but trading on 'nonpublic knowledge' is not legal if that knowledge is business insider information, so you better be sure...some info is just people following the business or other things the public could find out if they bothered to look, or just plain rumor, But official company dirt I'd stay away from. im not trading on anyone knowledge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: im not trading on anyone knowledge I misread, and you must have missed my other 'options' posts... Short version is with options you are playing poker, against all the other bettors (not investing in any company). No one makes money off the stock, business or the house, only off the other players...thus the bankroll etc. comments. Darter even told you there where better odds elsewhere...and 53 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: If you are pressed for money, don't do options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Troll said: I misread, and you must have missed my other 'options' posts... Short version is with options you are playing poker, against all the other bettors (not investing in any company). No one makes money off the stock, business or the house, only off the other players...thus the bankroll etc. comments. Darter even told you there where better odds elsewhere...and gotcha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 just purchased jan 15 2021 option 2 contracts 10 dollar call cost 30 dollars to purchase @DarterBlue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: just purchased jan 15 2021 option 2 contracts 10 dollar call cost 30 dollars to purchase @DarterBlue Caterpillar? By doing that, if 30 days from now you don't like how the stock is trading or the market is behaving, you can sell the calls and still get back a good chunk of your money. When you by next Friday's you have to hope and pray that the stock takes off before Friday in order to make any money or even get back a part of what you spent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, DarterBlue said: Caterpillar? By doing that, if 30 days from now you don't like how the stock is trading or the market is behaving, you can sell the calls and still get back a good chunk of your money. When you by next Friday's you have to hope and pray that the stock takes off before Friday in order to make any money or even get back a part of what you spent. no sorry i thought i added the company GE. The option expires Jan 15 2021. Its a 10 dollar call 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: no sorry i thought i added the company GE. The option expires Jan 15 2021. Its a 10 dollar call That makes sense, CAT trades well over $100, not $10. I should have figured it could not have been CAT. To make money on that trade, though, either GE will have to go into an uptrend early, or it will have to make a big move late. If it makes a move of $2 early (Aug/Sept) and gets to say $8+, I would be tempted to sell the calls. For even though they would not be in the money, you should have a profit in them since they would not have that much time erosion yet. But if GE is dead in the water through October, then you have to hope and prey for a very big move in November or December, or the options will not be worth much due to the rapid loss of time value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, DarterBlue said: That makes sense, CAT trades well over $100, not $10. I should have figured it could not have been CAT. To make money on that trade, though, either GE will have to go into an uptrend early, or it will have to make a big move late. If it makes a move of $2 early (Aug/Sept) and gets to say $8+, I would be tempted to sell the calls. For even though they would not be in the money, you should have a profit in them since they would not have that much time erosion yet. But if GE is dead in the water through October, then you have to hope and prey for a very big move in November or December, or the options will not be worth much due to the rapid loss of time value. yeah it is risky i believe. We were thinking if it got to 8 at the very least get out then. I dont think GE has the capability of getting above 10. But i paid 30 bucks for the trade or the option or whatever it is you call it. I bought 2 contracts. So 200 shares. the 13 week high is 8.57 and the 52 week high is 13.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: yeah it is risky i believe. We were thinking if it got to 8 at the very least get out then. I dont think GE has the capability of getting above 10. But i paid 30 bucks for the trade or the option or whatever it is you call it. I bought 2 contracts. So 200 shares. the 13 week high is 8.57 and the 52 week high is 13.26 It would take a major announcement such as a breakup of the company or its sale to a buyer to get past $10. It could happen and you have several months for it to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: It would take a major announcement such as a breakup of the company or its sale to a buyer to get past $10. It could happen and you have several months for it to do so. But like u said would take major news or players to get involved But if u go to the ex date Jan 15 there is a ton of volume for this option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 @DarterBlue My brother has a 10 dollar call option for a company KGC. Its trading at 9.40 or so right now Its a mining company that does gold in the America and Russia Exp Jan 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: @DarterBlue My brother has a 10 dollar call option for a company KGC. Its trading at 9.40 or so right now Its a mining company that does gold in the America and Russia Exp Jan 2021 It has a strong chart and was up big on Friday. Aside from that, I know very little about the company. But, depending on what he paid for it, he has a great chance of making money based on its technical action. If gold and gold stocks remain strong he could easily score a triple or more with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: It has a strong chart and was up big on Friday. Aside from that, I know very little about the company. But, depending on what he paid for it, he has a great chance of making money based on its technical action. If gold and gold stocks remain strong he could easily score a triple or more with this one. He paid 100 bucks for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 18 hours ago, HSFBfan said: @DarterBlue My brother has a 10 dollar call option for a company KGC. Its trading at 9.40 or so right now Its a mining company that does gold in the America and Russia Exp Jan 2021 So, since you are liking the precious metals, and are doing an option or two, I have a recommendation for you that could benefit both from gold and copper prices going up. It is FCX (Freeport McMoran). It has assets worldwide. It's principal assets are in Indonesia. The stock currently trades in the high $12 range, I am thinking options on the January 2021 $15s may be the right play. I throw this one out there because unlike most of the pure gold plays, this one has actually pulled back from recent highs and is at what I view as a secondary buy point as I type this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Thoughts on the Covid-19 Market Rally: The period from March 24, 2020 through June 8, 2020 was one of the steepest market rallies since the bear market of the 1930s when they were several counter long term trend mini-bull markets that saw moves of 100% or more. Since June 11, the averages, despite the NASDAQ hitting several new all-time highs, have mostly trended sideways in a broad consolidation pattern. Just from a technical standpoint, this is actually healthy and can be viewed as positive for the sustainability of the current bull move. However, it also reflects the dampening of enthusiasm due to the resurgence of the virus and the fact that fiscal stimulus has run out without a replacement on the table for the millions who remain unemployed. From a historical perspective, it would seem impossible that there will not be further fiscal stimulus on the horizon. Normally, regardless of ideological considerations, the political survival of the incumbent would dictate this. However, we live in abnormal times, so it is quite possible there will be no replacement. Should this scenario play out, the Republican Party will no doubt lose the Presidency and quite possibly the Senate. Normally when a ruling party gets swamped like that, in the immediate aftermath as well as in the final run up to the elections we have market weakness due to the uncertainty brought on by a change (impending change) in government. However, whilst most don't realize this, over the last 100 years, the stock market has actually outperformed during Democratic Administrations. Now, to be honest, this is as much due to some monster bear markets under Republican Administrations, than any natural affinity for the Democrats. But let's face it, for his entire career, Joe Biden has been a creature of the Washington swamp. Therefore, despite Trump's rumblings to the contrary and Biden's own words, I would be surprised if his policies are not pro Wall Street. So, to sum up, my educated guess is that we have a good August through early September followed by weakness in in late September through October if Trump cannot turn his campaign around. But, contrary to the belief of the wing nut crowd, this will be followed by a solid market going into the New Year. Of course, this forecast could be upended by one of three things: 1. Covid-19 accelerates and causes so much dislocation that we are forced to lock down the economy again. 2. Trump loses and refuses to leave office causing a constitutional crisis and the military to have to chose sides. 3. The American people have finally had enough causing massive social unrest. I think the probability of one of these three outlier evens occurring is about 1/3rd, so it has to be factored in. Should one of these happen, then instead of halcyon days ahead for stocks, we will have Covid-19 induced bear market number 2. If that happens, I fear the Fed will not be able to work its magic as such monetary magic will be largely ineffective due to the nature of the events surrounding the selloff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 @DarterBlue can you look up Nokia and give me your thoughts, it has way over it avg volume and then my second question is what’s this kid mean by float? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2020 59 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: @DarterBlue can you look up Nokia and give me your thoughts, it has way over it avg volume and then my second question is what’s this kid mean by float? Nokia and Ericsson are two, large Scandinavian telecom companies. Nokia is Finnish and the other is Swedish. Nokia just broke out of a flat base chart pattern on very strong volume. If you want to buy it, I would place a limit order about 3-4% below Friday's close. A company's float refers to the number of shares available for public trading. By definition, the more the float, the harder it is to move the price. Back in the 1990s both stocks were tech darlings that went up over 1,000%. Both topped out in the Dotcom bubble and neither has approached the old highs of 2000 since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2020 New Purchase: Today, I bought 668 shares of NEM at a price of $67.65 per share for a total of $45,190.20. With that, I now own 8 positions and am as fully invested as I have been during this Covid-19 rally. We hope this does not mean that now I am all in, the market will top. This purchase marks the first time in 20 years since I last purchased a precious metals stock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 3, 2020 Report Share Posted August 3, 2020 Ge is up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Ge is up It needs to make a bottom. Right now, it still looks like the trend is down. It needs to carve out a proper bottom and then move higher on higher volume. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted August 3, 2020 Report Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: It needs to make a bottom. Right now, it still looks like the trend is down. It needs to carve out a proper bottom and then move higher on higher volume. I just need to get to 10 before Jan It has over 400000 open volume for the call date right now for the 10 option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2020 Stocks closed broadly and significantly higher on lower volume. At the close, the indices were near day highs. Both NASDAQ indices recorded all time highs and the S&P recorded a bull run high and is now firmly set on taking out its February all time high. The range was from a gain of .58% on the NYSE to 1.78% on the Russell 2000. Technology stocks were also strong, and this is reflected in the gains recorded by the two NASDAQ indices which were up over 1.33% each. Advancing stocks led by margins of 19-11 on the NYSE and 12-5 on the NASDAQ. It was a very good day to be in the bullish camp. The only flaw such as it was is the fact that volume was lower than Friday’s volume. With that said, the day was undeniably solid. On a personal note, I had a great day, as I was up $15,072 or 2.58%. I greatly out legged the market and everything I owned closed in the black. The big winners were: SHOP, TTD, ZM and LCII. LCII reports before the bell tomorrow, so that should be interesting. NEM, a new purchase, and TEAM had modest gains while LOW and MDY had good, but not market beating gains. It does not get much better for me than a day like today. I easily crossed the $100,000 mark in year to date gains. I firmly believe that I own some very strong stocks which, if the bull continues through the rest of the year, will put me up over $200,000 by year’s end. However, the market will dictate that, and there are still many troubling things in the equation that the market has chosen to ignore, at least for now. New Purchase: Today, I bought 668 shares of NEM at a price of $67.65 per share for a total of $45,190.20. With that, I now own 8 positions and am as fully invested as I have been during this Covid-19 rally. We hope this does not mean that now I am all in, the market will top. This purchase marks the first time in 20 years since I last purchased a precious metals stock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted August 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 4, 2020 Stocks closed up broadly and moderately on lower volume today. In the process, they closed near day highs. In the case of the two NASDAQ indices, they had fluctuated between positive and negative territory all day before making a swift and decisive move in the final half hour. The range of the day’s gains were from .35% on the NASDAQ to .67% on the Russell. Advancing stocks led by margins of 19-12 on the NYSE and 10-7 on the NASDAQ. The day was constructive, especially following the very nice gains scored on Monday. The market seems to be on its way to higher levels and the S&P now has a real shot at scoring all-time highs before the month is done. Prior to today’s open, LCII reported earnings. Despite the fact that the company beat estimates handily, the stock which opened at all-time highs swiftly reversed. This is generally not a good thing. It is the reaction to an event rather than the event itself that tends to speak to where a stock is going. However, there are two mitigating factors: 1. The company preannounced sales in mid-July the range of which was consistent with reported sales (reported amounts were near the top of the range. 2. The stock had run up over the past two weeks in reaction to the preannouncement. A third factor which ties into item 2, is the fact that despite weakness in the stock today, it was down just under 2.5%, it violated no technical support and very quickly bounced off day lows. Because of this, I will hold it for now. On the day, I closed up $325 or .05%, underperforming the averages. However, earlier I had been down over $5,000 near LCII’s day lows. on the day, NEM, TTD and MDY were my winners. My other five positions were down. However, aside from LCII, the losses were all very small; hence, my closing up on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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