The Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

Just now, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Ya I didn’t even notice it was that much of a penny stock , 

I mean if its most likely bottom and with Halloween coming up, I mean I’ll put 2% of my capital into to it and if it breaks resistance and goes to moon , it’s a low risk high reward , I’m staying away options, strictly buy low sell high

Personally, I usually prefer buy high, sell higher. It usually has a much higher (using a pun here) rate of success. One other think to consider: It currently trades on the NYSE. Given its low price, it must be very close to facing de-listing.  

[imaGoodBoyNow]

4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Personally, I usually prefer buy high, sell higher. It usually has a much higher (using a pun here) rate of success. One other think to consider: It currently trades on the NYSE. Given its low price, it must be very close to facing de-listing.  

I thought delisting happens at $1?

 

and darter you have never once traded any penny stocks in recent years,, I only see you go after Blue chip stocks

[imaGoodBoyNow]

And @DarterBlue one last thing.. can you explain wtf is going on with Tesla?? How does a company go from $211 all the way to +$2100 in 8 months 

 

 

I just don’t get how does this company rise so fast in so little time 

 

something ain’t right 

[DarterBlue]

22 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I thought delisting happens at $1?

 

and darter you have never once traded any penny stocks in recent years,, I only see you go after Blue chip stocks

Because I have not traded cheap stocks in years, I have not looked at the de-listing rules recently. So you are probably right. The last cheap stock I made serious money on was Technitrol (TNL at the time. It got bought out, so it no longer trades). I bought it in the $2 range coming out of the 2008/2009 bear market and sold it for about $6 a year later. But I knew what I was buying and it was cheap because of the severity of that bear market.  

10 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

And @DarterBlue one last thing.. can you explain wtf is going on with Tesla?? How does a company go from $211 all the way to +$2100 in 8 months 

 

 

I just don’t get how does this company rise so fast in so little time 

 

something ain’t right 

A company goes up for one and one reason alone. Those that wish to buy are willing and able to buy aggressively. People new to this game think (especially if they have gone to business school) that prices are rationally determined. They are not. So, yes, TSLA has probably recorded a decade's worth of gains in a year. However, that does not mean that because it is ahead of itself you should short it or buy puts on it. Overvaluation can persist for months and even years. And, it could easily double or triple again before it tops out. One possible place to go short (modestly and carefully) is after it splits at the end of the month. It has gone up recently based on the split announcement. Often, the stock selloff after the the news comes to fruition. 

Back in 1999/2000, QCOM (Qualcom) in its final blow off top move, doubled in about a week! The stock literally went perpendicular! Such moves are great if you were on board prior to the move, but they are usually not for long.  If you were going to short something, then shorting into such moves (the final blowoff move) can be profitable. But you have to have the experience and discernment to determine if the move, however impressive, is the final blowoff top! 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Because I have not traded cheap stocks in years, I have not looked at the de-listing rules recently. So you are probably right. The last cheap stock I made serious money on was Technitrol (TNL at the time. It got bought out, so it no longer trades). I bought it in the $2 range coming out of the 2008/2009 bear market and sold it for about $6 a year later. But I knew what I was buying and it was cheap because of the severity of that bear market.  

A company goes up for one and one reason alone. Those that wish to buy are willing and able to buy aggressively. People new to this game think (especially if they have gone to business school) that prices are rationally determined. They are not. So, yes, TSLA has probably recorded a decade's worth of gains in a year. However, that does not mean that because it is ahead of itself you should short it or buy puts on it. Overvaluation can persist for months and even years. And, it could easily double or triple again before it tops out. One possible place to go short (modestly and carefully) is after it splits at the end of the month. It has gone up recently based on the split announcement. Often, the stock selloff after the the news comes to fruition. 

Back in 1999/2000, QCOM (Qualcom) in its final blow off top move, doubled in about a week! The stock literally went perpendicular! Such moves are great if you were on board prior to the move, but they are usually not for long.  If you were going to short something, then shorting into such moves (the final blowoff move) can be profitable. But you have to have the experience and discernment to determine if the move, however impressive, is the final blowoff top! 

Man I wanna short @elon musk so bad , I’ma Michael burry the shit out of $Tesla

[imaGoodBoyNow]

In other news, I withdrew a lil of my profits, and bought another F250 for my company 

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Man I wanna short @elon musk so bad , I’ma Michael burry the shit out of $Tesla

There is also the possibility that TSLA is the real deal and continues to dominate its market. Legislation in the rest of the world, if not the United States, could end up banning vehicles that use petroleum as their source of energy. If this is the case, TSLA may be worth ten times more than current prices five to ten years from now. Musk is a character, and I am 100% sure I would not want him to be my country's leader. But as a businessman, you have to give him his credit. 

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

In other news, I withdrew a lil of my profits, and bought another F250 for my company 

Yeah, so now you have another tax writeoff! Writeoffs are good if you are in business. They can save you a lot of money. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Yeah, so now you have another tax writeoff! Writeoffs are good if you are in business. They can save you a lot of money. 

So if I wind up buying another truck with a dumpster on it, say it’s $30k , I can deduct the whole 30k or they only give partial?

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

So if I wind up buying another truck with a dumpster on it, say it’s $30k , I can deduct the whole 30k or they only give partial?

I am pretty sure that under the new tax rules, you can write the whole thing off. However, double check with your tax professional. Also, even if you can take it all, it may not be to your advantage to do so, as that may depend on your anticipated revenue stream over the next few years, and the tax rate applied to the stream of revenues. I assume you are incorporated, is that correct? If you are, is it an LLC (single member or multiple members) or a traditional corporation?  

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

I am pretty sure that under the new tax rules, you can write the whole thing off. However, double check with your tax professional. Also, even if you can take it all, it may not be to your advantage to do so, as that may depend on your anticipated revenue stream over the next few years, and the tax rate applied to the stream of revenues. I assume you are incorporated, is that correct? If you are, is it an LLC (single member or multiple members) or a traditional corporation?  

Single LLC , but pay my taxes under my social not the company 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue

@HSFBfan

 

good. News on the economy 

 

Meanwhile, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a new record-low COVID-19 test positivity rate of 0.69 percent and the lowest COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU patients since the pandemic began.

Hospitalizations dropped to 483, a new low since March 16, and the number of patients in ICUs dropped to 116, a new low since March 15. Intubations matched a previous low of 56.

[imaGoodBoyNow]

14 hours ago, Troll said:

just an FYI for all you stock junkies LOL.

It's being reported that the US state dept. is advising universities to divest any stock in Chinese companies...

apparently they see (ALL OF ?) them being de-listed from US stock exchanges next year.

thoughts?

 

 

10 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

This was one reason I got rid of my JD.com's stock way too soon in May. A very obvious mistake, as it is up over 35% from my sale price. Should Trump get a second term, the odds are much higher than 50% that all Chinese stocks will be delisted from US exchanges. Ten years ago, this would have been a big blow to China both from a prestige and financial (access to capital markets) perspective. Today, I am not so sure that China (at least their government) cares. And, if Biden wins, despite tough rhetoric, I am not sure what his administration's actual policy toward China would be. 

Through its Belt and Road initiative, China has largely been looking past its relationship with the west to a large degree, viewing much of the rest of Asia and large parts of Africa as being fair game for carving out an economic sphere of influence dominated by China largely to the exclusion of the west. Of course, this has material implications on a personal level for my son's decision to make that country his home. As, certainly, the use of English will become far less important should China decouple its economy from its current relationship with the west. More broadly, it has huge implications for the United States, also, as much of its supply chain (manufacturing chain) is now dependent on China wholly or in part. Whole industries including pharmaceuticals, will be materially affected. And, I am not sure to what degree our current administration (or future administrations, not to mention major US multi-national companies) have factored any of this into their calculus.   

Our entire relationship with China is now at an inflection point. Make no mistake about it, though ruled by a government controlled by its communist party, China is not a communist country (at least not communist with respect to the Cold War definition). It much more closely resembles a more classic definition of a fascist country, with a strong central government acting in concert with its own large multi-national companies whose policies are coordinated with the state. In that sense, its only differences from Germany of the 1930s, is that it does not have a demagogic leader as its public face, nor has it yet embarked on a wholesale policy of eliminating a large segment of its population. 

Assuming that our species continues in recognizable form as we know it, the next three decades will see a large shift in power relationships and alignments. I don't pretend to have the perspicacity to see where this ultimately leads, but would caution that a military confrontation between China and the USA will certainly eliminate life as we know it on our planet. 

Darter I didn’t see this, there was one more stock I wanna ask about and that would be $JD , I’m getting alerts from Motley fool that this is a must buy 

[DarterBlue]

38 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Single LLC , but pay my taxes under my social not the company 

That's probably the right way to do it until you reach larger company status. Then you probably want to switch to another type of entity. But for now, what you have is clean and simple. I like clean and simple. I can wrap my head around that!

[DarterBlue]

6 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

 

Darter I didn’t see this, there was one more stock I wanna ask about and that would be $JD , I’m getting alerts from Motley fool that this is a must buy 

I owned this damn stock at about $42 and sold it in May at around $48, when I exited several stocks on a sharp market pullback. I repurchased most of the positions I exited (TTD, ZM and SHOP); however, I did not repurchase JD as I explained to Troll because of my concerns about our relationship with China. Big mistake as I could be up another 35%+ plus on it. I also did not repurchase COST which is up about 15% from my repurchase opportunity. The jury is still out as to whether that was also a mistake. In this game, you make a lot of mistakes even if you have played it for a lifetime. The trick is to learn from them and strive not to repeat them in the future. As I have said, trading is a journey, not a race. It is won by being humble, constantly learning and being disciplined. 

Regarding JD at current prices,  I would be careful. It could keep going higher and if I still owned it, I would be inclined to keep (at least most) it. But to buy here, be aware that it is extended. So, it is probably better to wait for a normal pullback to at least its 21-day moving average before buying it. Bear in mind as @Trollcautioned that our relations with China could go rapidly, further downhill. I believe this is especially true if Trump gets a second term. So, there is that wildcard out there. 

[DarterBlue]

A Promising Open: As I type this, stocks are set for a very solid open. As I have stated, I was concerned by last week's lack of breadth. Assuming that the opening gains hold, today is the kind of day to begin an ordered exit from the market, at least until it shows you that it wants to go higher in a healthy fashion. Does this mean I will sell any positions? No it does not. But it does mean that I will give thought to doing so. Perhaps, we will get a melt up phase to this market. It could be that this comes sooner than later. If we do get such a phase, I will certainly be selling into that strength.

While I have profitably participated in this bull market I have never been comfortable with it. For, I have always been acutely aware that it was a creature of the FED. At some stage, the FED's tools fail to be effective. I have no intention of being caught in the concomitant stampede for exit when this happens.  

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed broadly higher on higher volume across the board. And, aside from the NASDAQ indices, all the others closed near day highs. At the close of trade, the range was from a gain of .6% on the NASDAQ to 1.46% on the MID Cap index. Advancing stocks led by margins of 11-4 on the NYSE and 19-15 on the NASDAQ. Today was a very good day for bullish investors. Unlike last week when the NASDAQ was notching new highs, together with the S&P while breadth was very bad, today breadth broadened out. Good breadth, in my opinion (based on years of doing this), is very important for the sustenance of a long lasting, bull market move. Today, breadth was there to support the advance.

On the day, I lost $85, or .01%, underperforming the indices by a wide margin. This was interesting, as five of my eight positions gained. However, the losers offset the gainers in terms of magnitude. My best gainers were: LOW, up approximately 2.5%, MDY, 1.5% and TTD, 1%. ZTO and LCII scored small gains on the day to close out my winners. On the losing end of things, the big loser was ZM, down about 2.6%. SHOP lost about 2% while NEW was down about .65%. Looking at the technical shape of my positions, ZTO still remains on the bubble and will be sold if it cannot find support at $31. It is around 2% away from this price. NEM is the second most vulnerable. However, as a pure commodity play (gold), its success of failure is tied to the metal’s price. It is basically a bet against the dollar. All the other positions are fine. ZM’s losses were due to their system going down during the day from system overload. Obviously this needs to be fixed. However, its problem, if it can be fixed quickly and satisfactorily, is a great one to have. All my other positions including ZM are in good shape. My personal thoughts are as follows. The market had a good day today. So, if it continues to behave like this, I will hold all my positions that are acting normally. However, should the bad breadth resurface, or should the market show signs of going into a climax top (where prices of the NASDAQ go perpendicular), I will begin selling all but the very best positions (ZM and TTD) I own. Regarding ZM, if it’s strong going into earnings over the next two weeks, then similarly to what I did with TTD, I may sell a third of my current position before they release their numbers.

[HSFBfan]

Strategist who called rally says keep buying, U.S. will soon be among ‘safest places in the world’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/strategist-who-called-rally-says-keep-buying-us-will-soon-be-among-safest-places-in-the-world.html

[Blueliner]

1 minute ago, HSFBfan said:

Strategist who called rally says keep buying, U.S. will soon be among ‘safest places in the world’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/strategist-who-called-rally-says-keep-buying-us-will-soon-be-among-safest-places-in-the-world.html

After tonight. Keep buying. I am. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, Blueliner said:

After tonight. Keep buying. I am. 

Buy buy buy

[DarterBlue]

9 hours ago, HSFBfan said:

Buy buy buy

Good, I will have someone to sell to

[DarterBlue]

Not my politics nor my trading style. But there is some timeless value in Jim Rogers. Heed it;  ignore me. It's about 30 minutes. So, like the proverbial horse led to water, I know most of you will pass. 

 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed mixed but mostly higher on lower volume. The range was from a loss of .21% on the DOW to a gain of .82% on the NASDAQ 100. With the exception of the DOW and the two secondary indices (MID Cap and Russell 2000), the other indices closed at day highs. Overnight, the DOW benefitted from a major change. PFE, XOM and RTX (Exxon, Pfizer and Raytheon), are being dropped from the venerable index. Their replacements are: CRM, AMGN and HON (Salesforce.com, Amgen and Honeywell). With the exception of Honeywell, the other two are first time DOW stocks. The move was obviously made to try and juice the index, which has been woefully lagging the two NASDAQ indices, and has also been trailing the S&P 500.  CRM, may contribute positively vis a viz XOM. However, AMGN for PFE looks like a black dog for monkey move, and I suspect HON will underperform RTX. So, the move may not accomplish its intended purpose. Today, advancing stocks led by a 10-7 margin on the NASDAQ. However, declining stocks held a 8-7 margin on the NYSE. Overall, the day was okay. Not as positive as Monday, but net positive. It was good to see the averages close near day highs for the most part. The lack of volume was a minor concern.

On the day, I performed decently, gaining $3,565 or .6%. My big loser was LCII which was down 3% and broke support in the process. It now joins ZTO on my list of most troubled positions. Other losers were MDY and NEM. However, their losses were not significant. On the day, I had five winning positions. SHOP was up over 3% and had a very good day. ZM, regained all of yesterday’s losses and closed up 2.9%. My third good winner was ZTO which gained 1.9%. LOW and TTD had negligible winning days. I remain as invested (not fully, but close) as I have been for this bull cycle. However, I remain concerned. Both the fundamental backdrop, the FED’s role in the move, and the technicals of the market bother me. However, the trend is still up. As a position trader, there is a constant balance between wanting to maximize profits for the cycle, and avoiding getting caught long when we make a top. For now, I am day to day, and could start lightening up any day now.

 

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

40 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Not my politics nor my trading style. But there is some timeless value in Jim Rogers. Heed it;  ignore me. It's about 30 minutes. So, like the proverbial horse led to water, I know most of you will pass. 

 

Depends on the adderall supply.... or what time of day they get to drinking, well one starts around 8 est....

 

bgw

[DarterBlue]

6 minutes ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

Depends on the adderall supply.... or what time of day they get to drinking, well one starts around 8 est....

 

bgw

Yeah, I don't have an all star student body, that's for sure!🙃