Pops Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 6 hours ago, 954gator said: Is this your true thought on the game? I think they have a better chance than most but am not delusional — is probably need at least 4 or 5:1 to feel I wasn’t throwing money away and 8 to 10;1 might be a even fairer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 14 hours ago, StingMan44 said: Cool story, bro! Thanks for your well-supported answer to my question, but I guess that’s why your “reputation” is what it is. An unsupported assertion doesn't require any support to refute. Just know that #1650 isn't a good or even solid high school football team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Power rating tiers, year long resume body of work with 3 games played vs. top 350 min. 48 composite poll teams reviewed. Tier 1: Mater Dei, St. John's College, St. John Bosco Tier 2: Miami Central, Carol City, DLS, IMG, STA, Gonzaga, Corona Centennial (top 10 thru tier 2) Tier 3: AB Hoban, St,. Louis, Colerain, St. Joe's Prep, North Shore, Chandler, Christian Bros. Acad. , Oaks Christian, DeMatha, Colquitt County, Warren Central, JSerra, Folsom (top 23 thru tier 3) Tier 4: Longview, Corner Canyon, Mentor, Mission Viejo, Loyola Academy, St. Edward, Milton, St. Joe's Regional, Venice 32 of the 48 comp teams earned a tier. Teams needing one more game to be rated: Broken Arrow, St. Joe's Prep, ULab, Katy and Westlake 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammyswordsman Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said: Power rating tiers, year long resume body of work with 3 games played vs. top 350 min. 48 composite poll teams reviewed. Tier 1: Mater Dei, St. John's College, St. John Bosco Tier 2: Miami Central, Carol City, DLS, IMG, STA, Gonzaga, Corona Centennial (top 10 thru tier 2) Tier 3: AB Hoban, St,. Louis, Colerain, St. Joe's Prep, North Shore, Chandler, Christian Bros. Acad. , Oaks Christian, DeMatha, Colquitt County, Warren Central, JSerra, Folsom (top 23 thru tier 3) Tier 4: Longview, Corner Canyon, Mentor, Mission Viejo, Loyola Academy, St. Edward, Milton, St. Joe's Regional, Venice 32 of the 48 comp teams earned a tier. Teams needing one more game to be rated: Broken Arrow, St. Joe's Prep, ULab, Katy and Westlake Good work Golf. You must have spotted clear separation/embarkation points to make the cutoff for the Tiers. Your Tiers are more scientific/supported than mine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said: Good work Golf. You must have spotted clear separation/embarkation points to make the cutoff for the Tiers. Your Tiers are more scientific/supported than mine. There are flaws... and I welcome suggestions on how to handle them (see Power rating thread) for one thing 3 states have a decent variance between Freeman and Massey (NE, IL and HI). Also, teams get boosted like SJC for playing basically no weak teams in the top 350, while a team like Colquitt County is laying the lumber on so many quality teams but not a powerhouse yet so their position while strong, likely should be stronger but their schedule is holding them back a bit. They've got meat on the bone for sure and with Geico looming stuffing too. I don't value playoffs over regular season, because why should marqee OOS games not also receive a magnification? Every game matters but top 350 matter more and when you lose to a team rated below 350 you are docked points. St. Edward was docked the most points for losing to Cass Tech ... some Hail Mary drama affecting Ed's as well as DeMatha and Gonzaga's ratings. Zaga was fortunate to get by SJC and then the hail Mary pass to beat DeMatha was just insane. If Fisher would be kind enough to list a top 350 for me I could add a 3rd algorithm with a hybrid touch and likely reduce the NE, IL and HI variance and sure up some smaller variances with a 3rd set of state scaled eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammyswordsman Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said: There are flaws... and I welcome suggestions on how to handle them (see Power rating thread) for one thing 3 states have a decent variance between Freeman and Massey (NE, IL and HI). Also, teams get boosted like SJC for playing basically no weak teams in the top 350, while a team like Colquitt County is laying the lumber on so many quality teams but not a powerhouse yet so their position while strong, likely should be stronger but their schedule is holding them back a bit. They've got meat on the bone for sure and with Geico looming stuffing too. I don't value playoffs over regular season, because why should marqee OOS games not also receive a magnification? Every game matters but top 350 matter more and when you lose to a team rated below 350 you are docked points. St. Edward was docked the most points for losing to Cass Tech ... some Hail Mary drama affecting Ed's as well as DeMatha and Gonzaga's ratings. Zaga was fortunate to get by SJC and then the hail Mary pass to beat DeMatha was just insane. If Fisher would be kind enough to list a top 350 for me I could add a 3rd algorithm with a hybrid touch and likely reduce the NE, IL and HI variance and sure up some smaller variances with a 3rd set of state scaled eyes. Just using St. Eds as an example. If you feel that the current formula is holding them down to far, I would suggest an acellerator for Top 350 playoff wins. St. Eds had a bad game early in the season, but is playing much better and is rolling Top 100 teams now. Mayb'e you can figure out a way that reflects the fact they are trending up. (would go for all teams racking up playoff wins vs. Top opponents) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 18 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said: Just using St. Eds as an example. If you feel that the current formula is holding them down to far, I would suggest an acellerator for Top 350 playoff wins. St. Eds had a bad game early in the season, but is playing much better and is rolling Top 100 teams now. Mayb'e you can figure out a way that reflects the fact they are trending up. (would go for all teams racking up playoff wins vs. Top opponents) I will definitely consider that at year's end once I see how the ratings look and can see where the weaknesses lie and tinker a bit from there. If and when it does look decent, I can pump out more than the comp poll and choose teams and create a top 100 or more. What I'm doing in a nutshell is pretty simple off a creation overnight with points tallying. Points earned are based on opponents rating avg. It's the easiest and quickest idea I could think of to do a solo effort. The points and loss of points can for sure be adjusted. My ELO hybrid ratings system idea was a bit more complex Maybe I will input the top 10 comp at season's end and see how it looks. This was a Mater Dei look earlier in the season when I bailed due to way too much time to input for one nut. Rating W pts OT W pts OT L pts Total G Avg. Team Team Win Opp. Opp. Win SOS Rating % Differential SOS% Total PF PA Diff. top 10 top 25 top 100 top 250 top 350 Top 5 top 10 top 25 W's L's pct. W's L's pct. 30 45 W-L W-L W-L W-L W-L Boost x 3 Boost x 2 Boost x 1 1672 2 10 0 0 0 0 10 3 3.33 2 1 0.667 3 6 0.333 0.5556 501.60 74 75.000 740.60 112 38 74 1-0 1-0 2-1 2-1 2-1 90 Opponent For Against Pts CP rating IMG W 28 24 30 3 BG W 42 0 75 88 Bishop Amat L 42 14 67 60 Forfeit Opponent's Opponents State rating 10 25 100 250 350 IMG 1 0-0 0-0 1-0 1-0 2-0 Opponents: Liberty NV, Pine Richland, Norland, Mater Dei BG 2 0-1 0-1 0-2 1-2 1-2 Opponents: Orem, Mater Dei, DLS, Centennial AZ Bishop Amat 10 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1 Opponents: Mater Dei, JSerra SJC St. Mary's 70 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-2 0-2 Opponents: Mater Dei, Pittsburg, Damonte Ranch La Mirada 324 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-1 Opponents: Mater Dei, Upland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 21 hours ago, golfaddict1 said: there are flaws.... I don't value playoffs over regular season, because why should marqee OOS games not also receive a magnification? Playoffs are what everyone shoots for — it’s the objective at the end of the journey. The journey is what’s beautiful about hsfb (not the collection of talent at the outset). “OOS” doesn’t meant anything — if you want to highlight premium games somehow, fine, but don’t equate playoffs to OOS in terms of value your other flaw is Oaks Christian in Tier 3 but you’re just repeating the mistake of others so we will allow this to pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 52 minutes ago, Pops said: Playoffs are what everyone shoots for — it’s the objective at the end of the journey. The journey is what’s beautiful about hsfb (not the collection of talent at the outset). “OOS” doesn’t meant anything — if you want to highlight premium games somehow, fine, but don’t equate playoffs to OOS in terms of value your other flaw is Oaks Christian in Tier 3 but you’re just repeating the mistake of others so we will allow this to pass This collection of talent you speak of... is this a slight on algorithms or human pollsters? The data I am compiling is based on state scaling, differentials, SOS and W-L record. The ratings I am using is based on the comp poll to top 25 and the rest an avg. from 2 algorithms.... only top 350 games are reviewed and tallied. The OOS point I can edit to OOD or in district... doesn't matter as long as the quality of opponent is there. Folsom vs DLS, check. If it's in August, October or December it doesn't reduce the challenge of playing the opponent. I think the goal is the same too... you play to win the game (Herm Edwards lol). CP favors Oaks Christian's opponents more than Massey per below (3 schools more added via CP for top 350 inclusion, but Massey had the higher avg. overall with 3 less games used). If I could get Fisher's top 350 I think it would reduce the variances for some schools (and states). Avg. rating Massey and CalPreps COMP Team Massey Calpreps Pts/Games POINTS GAMES Avg Massey avg CalPreps avg. LAST GAME INFO 1 Mater Dei 478/10 500/11 489/10.5 489 10.5 46.6 48 46 Win vs SJB 11 St John's College 254/6 264/6 259/6 259 6.0 43.2 42 44 Loss to Gonzaga 2 St John Bosco 316/7 374/10 345/8.5 345 8.5 40.6 45 37 Loss to Mater Dei 18 Miami Central 226/7 226/7 226/7 226 7.0 32.3 32 32 Loss to Miami N-Western Coatesville 42/1 20/1 31/1 31 1.0 31.0 42 20 Win 17 Carol City 150/5 150/5 150/5 150 5.0 30.0 30 30 Loss to Miami Central 6 DLS 146/5 164/6 155/5.5 155 5.5 28.2 29 27 Win, plays Liberty-Brentwood Broken Arrow 62/2 50/2 56/2 56 2.0 28.0 31 25 Win, plays Jenks in finals 3 IMG 122/5 120/4 121/4.5 121 4.5 26.9 24 30 Win vs Hoover, season over 13 STA 78/3 108/4 93/3.5 93 3.5 26.6 26 27 Win, plays Venice 25 Gonzaga DC 152/6 155/6 154/6 154 6.0 25.7 25 26 Won state (wcac) vs DeMatha 12 Corona Centennial 136/6 194/7 165/6.5 165 6.5 25.4 23 28 Loss to Mater Dei Centennial AZ 30/1 20/1 25/1 25 1.0 25.0 30 20 Win 16 AB Hoban 50/2 74/3 62/2.5 62 2.5 24.8 25 25 Win, plays Massillion for title 8 St. Louis 106/6 186/6 146/6 146 6.0 24.3 18 31 Won state vs. Mililani 7 Colerain 50/2 96/4 73/3 73 3.0 24.3 25 24 Win vs Pickerington Central 15 St Joes Prep 20/1 50/2 35/1.5 35 1.5 23.3 20 25 Win 9 North Shore 82/3 78/4 80/3.5 80 3.5 22.9 27 20 Win, plays Katy this week 25 Chandler 66/3 66/3 66/3 66 3.0 22.0 22 22 Win, plays Perry for 6A title 20 Christian Bros, MO 76/4 136/6 106/5 106 5.0 21.2 19 23 Won state vs. Rockhurst 23 Oaks Christian 92/4 138/7 115/5.5 115 5.5 20.9 23 20 Loss to St John Bosco DeMatha 140/7 152/7 146/7 146 7.0 20.9 20 22 Lost to Gonzaga in wcac final 5 Allen 20/1 20/1 20/1 20 1.0 20.0 20 20 Win vs Rockwall 4 Colquitt County 128/8 160/7 144/7.5 144 7.5 19.2 16 23 Win vs. North Gwinnett 10 Warren Central 120/6 104/6 112/6 112 6.0 18.7 20 17 Won state vs Carmel JSerra Capistrano 144/9 205/10 174.5/9.5 174 9.5 18.4 16 21 Loss to Oaks Christian 25 Folsom 28/2 59/3 43.5/2.5 44 2.5 17.4 14 20 Win Longview 52/3 64/4 58/3.5 58 3.5 16.6 17 16 Win 21 University Lab 32/2 32/2 32/2 32 2.0 16.0 16 16 Win Corner Canyon 32/2 44/3 38/2.5 38 2.5 15.2 16 15 Won state Mentor 80/6 102/6 91/6 91 6.0 15.2 13 17 Loss to St. Edward Mission Viejo 70/6 146/9 108/7.5 108 7.5 14.4 12 16 Loss to Mater Dei Katy 28/2 28/2 28/2 28 2.0 14.0 14 14 Win Loyola Academy 110/6 53/6 81.5/6 81 6.0 13.6 18 9 Won state vs Brother Rice St Edward 98/8 130/9 114/8.5 114 8.5 13.4 12 14 Win, plays Colerain for title Valor Christian 12/1 12/1 12/1 12 1.0 12.0 12 12 Win Milton GA 50/5 63/5 56.5/5 56 5.0 11.3 10 13 Win vs Hillgrove St. Joseph Reg. 40/4 72/6 56/5 56 5.0 11.2 10 12 Won state vs Bergen Catholic Burke NE 60/3 0/0 30/3 30 3.0 10.0 20 0 Won state Westlake TX 30/2 10/2 20/2 20 2.0 10.0 15 5 Win 24 Duncanville 0/0 20/1 10/1 10 1.0 10.0 0 20 Win Venice 18/5 60/5 39/5 39 5.0 7.8 4 12 Win 22 Rome 0/0 12/1 6/1 6 1.0 6 0 12 Win Lee County GA 12/1 0/0 6/1 6 1.0 6 12 0 Win Central AL 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 Win 14 St Frances Academy 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 0.0 0 0 0 Win 19 Dutch Fork 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 0.0 0 0 0 Win Aledo 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 0.0 0 0 0 Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Pops said: Playoffs are what everyone shoots for — it’s the objective at the end of the journey. This does nothing to diminish the fact that playoff games are not inherently more valuable in evaluating ability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Pops said: “OOS” doesn’t meant anything This is what someone would say when their team is 8-8 in OOS games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Pops said: if you want to highlight premium games somehow, fine, but don’t equate playoffs to OOS in terms of value They aren't inherently more or less valuable. They're both high school football games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StingMan44 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 On 11/28/2018 at 10:37 AM, Goldmember said: An unsupported assertion doesn't require any support to refute. Just know that #1650 isn't a good or even solid high school football team. You probably thought your STA team would beat Centennial last year. YOU WERE WRONG!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Las Vegas_JC Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 hours ago, Goldmember said: They aren't inherently more or less valuable. They're both high school football games. He is correct in that OOS games by themselves mean nothing. Gorman could schedule Needles (CA) high school or any of the thousands of other slapdick California schools in order to fatten up their already stellar OOS record. A better term to recognize is the scheduling of "Risk Games." These are games that when scheduled are considered a toss up (with a 50% to 65% chance of victory for either team). Also a team should be given respect for purposefully scheduling 4-5 risk games in the regular season when they do not have to. There are not many teams in the nation which schedule in this manner. Maybe about 10 elite schools do so in a given year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammyswordsman Posted November 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 29 minutes ago, Las Vegas_JC said: He is correct in that OOS games by themselves mean nothing. Gorman could schedule Needles (CA) high school or any of the thousands of other slapdick California schools in order to fatten up their already stellar OOS record. A better term to recognize is the scheduling of "Risk Games." These are games that when scheduled are considered a toss up (with a 50% to 65% chance of victory for either team). Also a team should be given respect for purposefully scheduling 4-5 risk games in the regular season when they do not have to. There are not many teams in the nation which schedule in this manner. Maybe about 10 elite schools do so in a given year. I plugged your suggestions into the algorythem and we have a new #1. 1. Bishop Gorman 2. Servite 3. Narbonne 4. SJC 5. BC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 hours ago, Goldmember said: This does nothing to diminish the fact that playoff games are not inherently more valuable in evaluating ability. Well, one I disagree with you, two, you call a lot of things facts that are just your opinions and this is one of them, and three, that’s besides the point — and you’re not listening — it’s about ACCOMPLISHMENT (champiomships, playoff games, journey, lose/ go-home) vs ability (whoever has the most 4.5 40 kids that know the playbook by August 17th) not whether playoff games measure ability anymore than you would in, say, February at Nike camp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 hours ago, Goldmember said: They aren't inherently more or less valuable. They're both high school football games. The Super Bowl and a Dolphins preseason game in August are both NFL football games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 hours ago, Pops said: Well, one I disagree with you You disagree a lot with objective truths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 hours ago, Pops said: two, you call a lot of things facts that are just your opinions and this is one of them No, they are all high school football games. A game played in November is no more valuable or accurate in determining team strength than one played in September. This is an objective truth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 hours ago, Pops said: and three, that’s besides the point — and you’re not listening — it’s about ACCOMPLISHMENT (champiomships, playoff games, journey, lose/ go-home) vs ability (whoever has the most 4.5 40 kids that know the playbook by August 17th) not whether playoff games measure ability anymore than you would in, say, February at Nike camp It's obvious that you're not listening (and never do) since nobody is claiming that a 3-7 team with no accomplishments should be ranked as one of the best teams. You also misrepresent what ability is (which is not surprising in the least). Again, beating a top-ranked team in October is the same evaluative tool as it is beating that same team in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 hours ago, Pops said: The Super Bowl and a Dolphins preseason game in August are both NFL football games No, they're not. One's a preseason game which the team is not trying to win with a roster of players in which half will be selling insurance in a month. This is a dumb comparison much like your Nike Camp analogy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, Goldmember said: It's obvious that you're not listening (and never do) since nobody is claiming that a 3-7 team with no accomplishments should be ranked as one of the best teams. You also misrepresent what ability is (which is not surprising in the least). Again, beating a top-ranked team in October is the same evaluative tool as it is beating that same team in November. How do you evaluate if a team splits with each other then? Are they equal teams if both beat each other by say 6 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Goldmember said: You disagree a lot with objective truths. Objective truths? Ha Good one Iow, opinions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Goldmember said: No, they are all high school football games. A game played in November is no more valuable or accurate in determining team strength than one played in September. This is a lame, self-serving opinion FIFY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Goldmember said: It's obvious that you're not listening (and never do) since nobody is claiming that a 3-7 team with no accomplishments should be ranked as one of the best teams. You also misrepresent what ability is (which is not surprising in the least). Again, beating a top-ranked team in October is the same evaluative tool as it is beating that same team in November. How many times would you like to try to misrepresent your opinion as.......... ....... an objective truth? STA is almost always more highly ranked in August than December — and doesn’t put themselves in a position to play a challenge game in post season as often as not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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