2018 Tier Placement - Final

[THEOC89]

You can even go Further here in BG's Case for Tier 3, and make the case that Orem UT is just as good as Folsom....

Orem is a 12-2 State Champion, They Scheduled their pre-season state Top 3 Bingham and Lost and they Scheduled National Power and NV #1 BG and lost... They Also though scheduled Tough Trinity League (The #1 League in So Cal) Team SM who is normally a top 10 So Cal team but in a down year ending with 7 losses... Orem won that game 51-46.... Orem Blew through the rest of their schedule Hanging 50, 60, 70 points on every team, even winning a game 75-0....

Folsom is 11-1 right now... They Scheduled the #3 team in their state and were shut out, The only other team they scheduled is a fringe top 15 team from the Serra League (Maybe the #2 League in So Cal) Chaminade, who ended the season with 7 losses.... Folsom won that game 70-35.... Folsom continues to blow out all their overmatched competition as well....

Furthermore, if you want to dissect the "Domination" of their opponents, Orem has 3 shut out wins, and has scored 60+ Points 7 times with a high of 75, their lowest offensive output was 21 points in their loss to BG.... Folsom has 3 shut out wins and scored 60+ points 5 times, and was shut out in their loss to DLS the only good team they played.

So when you really break it down, Folsom is the same as Orem ! Orem even played a tougher schedule Beat a So Cal 7 loss team for their out of state win, scored more points in a game and was never close to being shut out.... Folsom beat a 7 loss So Cal team for their out of area win and was shut out by the only good team they played...

Since Folsom is maybe on the same level as Orem, BG should be on the same Tier as Folsom since they Beat a team on the field (Orem) that is arguably better then Folsom on paper....

And as much as this pains me to bring this up, since a team from UT (East) has beaten DLS, which no other nor cal team has done including Folsom (0-3 Outscored 108-38 by DLS), we MUST assume that a UT team could beat the #2 or #3 (Some People think Liberty is better) Nor Cal Team Folsom...

What do you say @Sammyswordsman ?... Can we please get BG Moved up to Tier 3 where they belong my Brother?....🙂

[FolsomPrisonBlues]

Folsom #1 Public School in CA. 

Moves to Tier 2, while Cen10 moves to Tier 3

 

[Sammyswordsman]

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB,  NorthShore (TX), STA, 

 

Tier 2 -    Allen, DLS, Colquitt County, Cen10, SFA, Colerain, St. Louis (Hi),  Miami Central, Carol City, St. Edwards, Duncanville Tx

 

Tier 3 -    Arch Bishop Hoban,  John Curtis, Katy,   Warren Central (Ind),  Christian Brothers,     West Monroe, Folsom, ULAB (La), SJC, Gonzaga, DeMatha,  Chandler AZ,  Massilon, Centennial AZ

Tier 4 -  St. Iggy,  SJP,    Rome, Trinity Christian, Columbia (FL),    Mentor, Bergen Catholic, Lowndes, Bishop Gorman, Lee County, SJR, Jserra, Jokes Christian, Deerfield Beach, Cardinal Gibbons, AHP, Milton, Central Fresno

Tier 5 -    Hoover,  SPP, St. X, Pick Central,  Lakeland,  Good Council, Parkview. Archer, Aledo, Lincoln Way East, Loyola Academy, Liberty Ca.  Cartersville, Blessed Trinity, Grayson, Mission Viejo, 

 

Tier 6 -      Bingham, Walton, North Gwinett,  DBP,  De Paul, Marietta, Pinnacle Az. Bishop amat, OLU, Cass Tech (MI), St. Francis (Ca), Muskegon (MI), 

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*It is possible for a team to lose by 10+ to a team on their same Tier, and still be 10+ points better than teams on the next lowest Tier.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

[badrouter]

49 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB,  NorthShore (TX), STA, 

 

Tier 2 -    Allen, DLS, Colquitt County, Cen10, SFA, Colerain, St. Louis (Hi),  Miami Central, Carol City, St. Edwards, Duncanville Tx

 

Tier 3 -    Arch Bishop Hoban,  John Curtis, Katy,   Warren Central (Ind),  Christian Brothers,     West Monroe, Folsom, ULAB (La), SJC, Gonzaga, DeMatha,  Chandler AZ,  Massilon

Tier 4 -  St. Iggy,  SJP,    Rome, Trinity Christian, Columbia (FL),  Centennial AZ,  Mentor, Bergen Catholic, Lowndes, Bishop Gorman, Lee County, SJR, Jserra, Jokes Christian

Tier 5 -    Hoover,  SPP, St. X, Pick Central,  Lakeland,  Good Council, Parkview. Archer, Aledo, Lincoln Way East, Loyola Academy, Liberty Ca. Deerfield Beach, Milton, Cartersville, Blessed Trinity, Grayson, Mission Viejo

 

Tier 6 -      Bingham, Walton, North Gwinett,  DBP,  De Paul, Marietta, Pinnacle Az. Bishop amat, OLU, Cass Tech (MI), St. Francis (Ca), Muskegon (MI), 

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*It is possible for a team to lose by 10+ to a team on their same Tier, and still be 10+ points better than teams on the next lowest Tier.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Columbia still in Tier 4, despite the playoff loss to a team that turned around and got blown out the next week. LOL. Troll, or are you just not paying attention?

[Pops]

40 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB,  NorthShore (TX), STA, 

 

Tier 2 -    Allen, DLS, Colquitt County, Cen10, SFA, Colerain, St. Louis (Hi),  Miami Central, Carol City, St. Edwards, Duncanville Tx

 

Tier 3 -    Arch Bishop Hoban,  John Curtis, Katy,   Warren Central (Ind),  Christian Brothers,     West Monroe, Folsom, ULAB (La), SJC, Gonzaga, DeMatha,  Chandler AZ,  Massilon

Tier 4 -  St. Iggy,  SJP,    Rome, Trinity Christian, Columbia (FL),  Centennial AZ,  Mentor, Bergen Catholic, Lowndes, Bishop Gorman, Lee County, SJR, Jserra, Jokes Christian

Tier 5 -    Hoover,  SPP, St. X, Pick Central,  Lakeland,  Good Council, Parkview. Archer, Aledo, Lincoln Way East, Loyola Academy, Liberty Ca. Deerfield Beach, Milton, Cartersville, Blessed Trinity, Grayson, Mission Viejo

 

Tier 6 -      Bingham, Walton, North Gwinett,  DBP,  De Paul, Marietta, Pinnacle Az. Bishop amat, OLU, Cass Tech (MI), St. Francis (Ca), Muskegon (MI), 

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*It is possible for a team to lose by 10+ to a team on their same Tier, and still be 10+ points better than teams on the next lowest Tier.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Don’t understand logic if STA in Tier 1 — they lost to a tier 2 team by 16 and theiir best wins Tier 3 and 5

Seems to me that only justification is to still be giving benefit if doubt on roster in December — happy to have them in tier 2 with undefeateds DLS (better SOS), CQ, SFA, Allen,  Colerain and Duncancille.

as for NorCal, you’ve got IMHO 4 of top 5 teams but missing #3

DLS (2)

Folsom (3)

Liberty (5)

St Francis (6)

Central (Fresno) worthy of 4/5 consideration (likely Folsom’s D1AA opponent and toughest test thru projected SBG path)

[Sammyswordsman]

4 minutes ago, Pops said:

Don’t understand logic if STA in Tier 1 — they lost to a tier 2 team by 16 and theiir best wins Tier 3 and 5

Seems to me that only justification is to still be giving benefit if doubt on roster in December — happy to have them in tier 2 with undefeateds DLS (better SOS), CQ, SFA, Allen,  Colerain and Duncancille.

as for NorCal, you’ve got IMHO 4 of top 5 teams but missing #3

DLS (2)

Folsom (3)

Liberty (5)

St Francis (6)

Central (Fresno) worthy of 4/5 consideration (likely Folsom’s D1AA opponent and toughest test thru projected SBG path)

I’ll take a look at Crntral Fresno later.  Thx

[Pops]

On 11/18/2018 at 3:02 PM, FolsomPrisonBlues said:

Folsom #1 Public School in CA. 

Moves to Tier 2, while Cen10 moves to Tier 3

 

I think cc/ Folsom would be great game and id probably take folsom on a n eutral field in a squeaker

however, CC resume ahead of folsom’s still so.....

im good as is or

both in tier 2 or

both in tier 3

but not Folsom ahead of CC.....

Folsom needs to win out BIGLY and ought to root hard for a major upset in Open — if that likely and unlikely thing happen, Folsom can move ahead of CC ImHO 

[Sammyswordsman]

8 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Columbia still in Tier 4, despite the playoff loss to a team that turned around and got blown out the next week. LOL. Troll, or are you just not paying attention?

I’ll take a look at Columbia later.  Why do you think they don’t fit in with other Tier 4 teams 

[StingMan44]

40 minutes ago, badrouter said:

Columbia still in Tier 4, despite the playoff loss to a team that turned around and got blown out the next week. LOL. Troll, or are you just not paying attention?

Not sure he moves/fails to move teams to troll people or if its stupidity....probably a combination of the two.

One team moved from Tier 4 to 3 without playing a game or having any of their opponents play a game. No logic to what he does!!

[Pops]

2 minutes ago, StingMan44 said:

Not sure he moves/fails to move teams to troll people or if its stupidity....probably a combination of the two.

3rd possibility 

this is a value added invitation to collaborate 

 

[StingMan44]

8 minutes ago, Pops said:

3rd possibility 

this is a value added invitation to collaborate 

 

Then tell me the logic of my example above....how would a team move up a tier after having a bye week and none of their opponents playing either? What did they do in that week to make him think they can compete in Tier 3 when they couldn’t last week?? No logic!! Just trolling and/or stupidity.

[BraceFace69]

On 11/15/2018 at 3:16 PM, mikejones said:

Go back to trying to make friends with weird, middle aged men with no life on here, before you slander others.

You have zero clue who I am. Move along. You don't even live in Folsom, you little bandwagoner. 

DLS by 17

[badrouter]

1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

I’ll take a look at Columbia later.  Why do you think they don’t fit in with other Tier 4 teams 

They lost a second game, at home, ending their season, to a team that proceeded to get blown out the next week by an unranked team.

Ultimately, we know full well why you have them up there. They made IMG look bad in an exhibition, and you don't want that because one of your Mater Dei team's two best wins is against that IMG team.

[Pops]

1 hour ago, StingMan44 said:

Then tell me the logic of my example above....how would a team move up a tier after having a bye week and none of their opponents playing either? What did they do in that week to make him think they can compete in Tier 3 when they couldn’t last week?? No logic!! Just trolling and/or stupidity.

Am not sure who you’re talking about but sometimes teams can move based on what their opponents did (good or bad)

also, there are apparent logic disconnects in any instrument that attempts to sort/ rank 14,000 hsfb teams 

i infer this thread as “let’s discuss” not “here are the carved stone tablets from the mountain”

[Goldmember]

2 hours ago, Pops said:

Don’t understand logic if STA in Tier 1 — they lost to a tier 2 team by 16 and theiir best wins Tier 3 and 5

Seems to me that only justification is to still be giving benefit if doubt on roster in December — happy to have them in tier 2 with undefeateds DLS (better SOS), CQ, SFA, Allen,  Colerain and Duncancille.

This is one of my favorite dishonest arguments that Pops routinely makes.

He claims that "roster" and, in the past, "potential" are being used to rank a team that has played 13 games (in this case). In 2016, he did the same thing with a team that had played 15 games (take a guess what team it was).

They are being judged based on the games they've played. And that's how it should be.

[StingMan44]

51 minutes ago, Pops said:

Am not sure who you’re talking about but sometimes teams can move based on what their opponents did (good or bad)

also, there are apparent logic disconnects in any instrument that attempts to sort/ rank 14,000 hsfb teams 

i infer this thread as “let’s discuss” not “here are the carved stone tablets from the mountain”

Read what I said. NONE OF THEIR OPPONENTS PLAYED THIS WEEK EITHER!!!! Ughhhh...its like I’m talking to a wall sometimes!!

[Pops]

10 minutes ago, Goldmember said:

This is one of my favorite dishonest arguments that Pops routinely makes.

He claims that "roster" and, in the past, "potential" are being used to rank a team that has played 13 games (in this case). In 2016, he did the same thing with a team that had played 15 games (take a guess what team it was).

They are being judged based on the games they've played. And that's how it should be.

I don't understand the dishonest comment -- can you make comments without insults?

I don't understand how STA can be a top 5 team right now based on accomplishments/ resume.  Is that dishonest?  Is it unfair?

They lost by 16 to a 3-loss team and have 3 top 250 wins (albeit very convincing) -- a very good team no doubt, and MAYBE even one of the 5 best teams in the country, but I don't see how they could be judged that way unless based on roster potential.  Here's a short bio for everyone that IMHO CLEARLY has a better resume to date:

• SJB, MD, IMG, Carol City, SJC, CC -- 6 1-loss teams w/ a better loss and more quality wins
• CQ, DLS -- undefeated with superior SOS
• Colerain, Archbishop Hoban -- 2 OH undefeateds w comparable SOS
• Northshore, Allen, Duncanville, Longview...... debatable, but here's 4 TX undefeateds that all have top 250 wins and are on collision course for better wins.

I'll leave SFA out of it, because they haven't played anyone.

I think part of the disconnect is your lack of weight to Wins and Losses -- it's not all about yards from scrimmage and time of possession. There is an object to the game and a starting and finishing point.

[Pops]

9 minutes ago, StingMan44 said:

Read what I said. NONE OF THEIR OPPONENTS PLAYED THIS WEEK EITHER!!!! Ughhhh...its like I’m talking to a wall sometimes!!

I heard you

You didn't hear me

Let me make it a shorter message

You can get your panties in a wad critiquing any poll -- make your point if you'd like to participate, including if he listed two teams twice or failed to move one, or moved one when he should;t have.  We're not building a rocket ship -- this is a hsfb discussion so there'll be mistakes.  let's discuss and make better

 

[Goldmember]

2 minutes ago, Pops said:

I don't understand the dishonest comment -- can you make comments without insults?

How is it insulting to call a dishonest argument, dishonest?

It's dishonest to claim that a team is being ranked on "roster" and "potential" in late November when they've played 13 games and have done things that only a handful of teams have done.

They're being ranked on what they've done.

[StingMan44]

 

4 minutes ago, Goldmember said:

How is it insulting to call a dishonest argument, dishonest?

It's dishonest to claim that a team is being ranked on "roster" and "potential" in late November when they've played 13 games and have done things that only a handful of teams have done.

They're being ranked on what they've done.

You can’t tell me that some pollsters don’t defer to name recognition, past success and high profile recruits on a team when choosing where to place some teams (even late in a year). I think that’s what he is saying!!

[Goldmember]

6 minutes ago, Pops said:

I don't understand how STA can be a top 5 team right now based on accomplishments/ resume.  Is that dishonest?  Is it unfair?

They've won 12 games. They have 12 running clocks. They have two running clocks against top 100 teams. Nobody outside tier 1 has done that.

Accomplishments and resume aren't just about Ws and Ls, Pops. I don't hold out any hope that you'll ever understand this.

[ECHS05]

Your tiers suck sammy.

Milton & Rome Tier 3.

That is all.

And not because Milton beat them but damn give Cardinal Gibbons some love...they just beat AHP by 28 points and are gonna coast into the FL 5A Finals.

[Pops]

2 minutes ago, Goldmember said:

How is it insulting to call a dishonest argument, dishonest?

It's dishonest to claim that a team is being ranked on "roster" and "potential" in late November when they've played 13 games and have done things that only a handful of teams have done.

They're being ranked on what they've done.

Are they?

I know I didn't phrase my first post on topic in form of question, but I was clearly seeking feedback from @Sammyswordsman as to his logic to include STA on same tier as SJB, MD, and IMG right now

I expressed my logic above

Again, good team -- I wouldn't have said anything were they on the same tier as DLS, which has no losses, the top win, and twice as many top 250 wins.  But there's about a dozen Tier 2 teams and I'd probably have STA in lower half if sort/ ranked so was curious how he picked them as worthy of Tier 1

To me, the potential answers  "they have a better roster" or "MC was really an aberration" or "they've just destroyed everyone else" -- just seems like a big pass to me based on name and I don't see an integrity issue

[Goldmember]

10 minutes ago, Pops said:

They lost by 16 to a 3-loss team and have 3 top 250 wins (albeit very convincing)

They were winning 21-17 in the 4th quarter.

What you're saying is that a team with running clocks in all of their wins and who was winning 3/4 through their one loss can't possibly be ranked in the top 5.

This is simple human frailty.

You just have some irrational mental block.

Somehow you argue out of one side of your mouth that 2015 De La Salle "obliterated" their schedule (even though they only had 11 running clocks in 13 wins) and was the best team yet you don't see any way that 2018 STA could be in the top 5.

[Pops]

3 minutes ago, Goldmember said:

They've won 12 games. They have 12 running clocks. They have two running clocks against top 100 teams. Nobody outside tier 1 has done that.

Accomplishments and resume aren't just about Ws and Ls, Pops. I don't hold out any hope that you'll ever understand this.

Sounds like Folsom
 

Why isn't Folsom in Tier 1?