NorCal report

[Blueliner]

On 10/15/2018 at 6:05 PM, Cal 14 said:

This is an objective viewpoint of the weekly status of NorCal football teams and was requested by a couple of other posters.  Your opinions are welcome, but any outrage of false indignation will be ignored.  Not sure if I will make a new thread each week or just update as we go along (would appreciate feedback on this).  For each weekly report, I'll give a ranking of each CIF section.  However, for this first one, I will summarize how they each determine their playoffs, as there is no uniform CIF manner of doing this.  I will rank the top 9 from the SJS, 7 from the NCS, and 6 from the CCS (representing the relative size of each section) and top 10 overall in NorCal (no one from the NS, SFS, or OS are among the top 10 in NorCal for 2018).  For these initial sets, I am not including the Central Section, but I will if people request it (given that some CIF-CS division champs will compete in NorCal for the regionals).

As of Oct 15, 2018

Sac-Joaquin Section

The SJS determines their 78 playoff teams over 7 divisions by a combination of four things:

a.  League champions (automatic bids)

b.  Calpreps.com ratings (non-automatic bids)

c.  School CBEDs (average daily enrollments)

d.  Traditional league strength designations (for example, teams from D-I leagues cannot play lower than D-II in the playoffs and teams will histories of dominance of lower divisions are forced to move up)

Each league champion automatically qualifies for the playoffs and the remaining field is selected based on Calpreps.com ratings.  The largest 12 schools that qualify are placed in D-I, the next largest in D-II, and so on.  D-VII has only the smallest 6 teams.  In order to be considered, a team must have at least 4 wins.  For my rankings, I'll place their anticipated playoff division (which could change from week to week).

1.  Folsom (D-I):  The Bulldogs are the clear front-runner in D-I.  With the close loss to De La Salle to open the season and the continued battery of other SJS teams, the defending state D-IAA champions are poised to defend their title.

2.  Del Oro (D-II):  This is based mostly on their demolition of Oak Ridge a couple of weeks ago.  Other than that win, the Eagle coaching staff didn't really seek out the type of schedule we're accustomed to seeing them do, so they're a little bit of a question mark.  Del Oro takes on Folsom in the regular season finale.  Their very close win over an up-and-down (mostly down) Grant team should be cause of great concern.

3.  Monterey Trail (D-I):  This is based on two things... their big win over a good Sheldon team and default... because not many other stand out at this level and/or have some questionable games.  They don't play in a great (or even good) league and have largely been untested, but they are undefeated at the moment at 8-0.

4.  Capital Christian (D-IV):  Going on a little bit of a limb here over Oak Ridge.  Undefeated at 8-0, but with a win over Grant that is similar to that of Oak Ridge, minus the two severe blowout losses that the Trojans have taken.  The Cougars are coached by former Del Oro HC, Casey Taylor, so watch out for this program in the coming years.

5.  Oak Ridge (D-I):  Nice win over Grant and none that are questionable, but the two aforementioned crushing defeats at the hands of Folsom and Del Oro are puzzling.  While it's not shocking that they lost those games, the manner of how bad they were is.

6.  Central Catholic (D-II):  Challenged themselves against De La Salle and have a nice win over St. Mary's.  Close win over Manteca concerns.  Nearly dropped them one spot because of it.

7.  Inderkum (D-II):  This team could easily be as high as 4, but are lacking a signature win.  Best win over Antelope matched by Capitol Christian, but the Tigers can't match the ones against Grant or St. Mary's.  Still, Inderkum is a demonstration that there are going to be several good contenders for the SJS D-II crown.

8.  Placer (D-IV):  The defending NorCal 4AA champs are looking a little better than last year, but the concerns I had about them last year don't seem to be especially resolved.  Their wing-t offense is very fluid and difficult to stop, but they don't seem to be especially adept at stopping other high-quality offenses.  They're highly thought of by other websites (NorCalPreps and Cal-Hi Sports), so they may end up again playing much bigger schools in the NorCal regionals, should they get past Capital Christian.  Both the NorCal and state games last year were shootouts.

9.  Jesuit (D-I):  Really kind of wanted to put Sheldon in this spot, but the Huskies have been playing just above the levels of their competition lately, whereas the Marauders have started to step things up.  That said, those two teams are meeting this week to settle this, as well as the Delta League championship.

 

North Coast Section

The NCS determines their 5 playoff divisions loosely by enrollment, but have added elements of competitive equity lately.  Additionally, teams always have the option to petition into a higher division.  Last, there is an Open Division that should, at least theoretically, have the top 4 teams from the entire section.  Because the division is designated as an "Open", both the champion and another team is allowed to replace the champion of another division.  What is not actually clearly stated is whether or not a team that fails to advance to the Open championship game can be selected over their original division's champion.  What has been taking place in other sections (and the NCS) is that the runner-up is selected to compete in the NorCal regionals, but that is not explicitly stated in the NCS bylaws.  I bring this up because there is a possibility that Cardinal Newman, which is normally a D-III team, could possibly be selected to compete in the Open.  The NCS could conceivably also have them replace the D-III champion by virtue of this Open placement.  Other sections have much more clear language.

Designated league champions are automatically selected to advance to the playoffs and the rest of the field is determined as at-large teams.  In order to advance as an at-large, a team must be at least 0.500 overall, against schools with enrollments within their own original divisional placement (regardless of where in the United States they play), and/or within their league.  This is the only CIF section that will leave placements empty if there are not enough teams that satisfy this 0.500 requirement.

1.  De La Salle (D-Open):  What hasn't been written about this program's dominance from over the last 20 years?  Last week, they clobbered Foothill.  Not a surprise, but the fact that the Falcons actually scored kind of was.  While the Spartans remain the top team in the section and NorCal, they still appear to be somewhat vulnerable.

2.  Liberty (D-Open):  Easily the most consistent team in the entire NCS (including DLS), they have yet to truly be challenged.  While one may read that to say that they haven't played anyone decent at all, they do have a solid win over a good Cardinal Newman team.  They will play Pittsburg for the Bay Valley Athletic League title this week.  A win likely secures a #2 seed in the Open Division, but they will still likely advance there with a loss.  If DLS does not have a good night, Liberty is a squad that could conceivably dethrone them.

3.  Clayton Valley Charter (D-Open):  Placement into the Open is virtue of an early-season victory over Pittsburg.  While the Ugly Eagles also have a not-so-great loss to Antioch, there may not be another obvious team that could take their place.

4.  Pittsburg (D-Open... maybe):  The Pirates have scored a couple of solid wins over St. Mary's and San Mateo Serra.  However, the loss to Clayton Valley Charter puts their Open Division placement in doubt.  In my opinion, they cannot lose either of their last two games against Liberty and Antioch, respectively.  The Pirates lost their starting QB a couple of weeks ago, but I actually think they're better with the replacement, who led them to the state D-1A title game last year.

5.  Cardinal Newman (D-III):  If Pittsburg loses to Antioch, the Panthers would likely replace them in the Open, as they also have a win over Clayton Valley Charter.  If the Pirates only lose to Liberty, then it's a real possibility that the Cardinals could be pulled all the way up from D-III.  At 7-1, their only loss came against Liberty.

6.  Antioch (D-I):  This placement over Monte Vista is due to the win over CVC and the possibility they could also upset Pittsburg.  Those two wins would likely catapult them into the Open.

7.  Monte Vista (D-I):  The Mustangs have a few nice wins over California, Granada, and Granite Bay, but they blew a late lead against Bishop O'Dowd and got absolutely smashed by De La Salle.  Could have placed Rancho Cotate in this spot.

 

Central Coast Section

The CCS has the most unique playoff system in the state in that they have three Open divisions.  From the outside, the system can appear very complex, but upon close examination, it really does make sense.  The section has typically used enrollment to determine its division, with the exception of the top division (either called D-I or Open), into which the top teams could have either petitioned or been forced. 

The section's leagues are very fluid from year to year.  With the exception of the all-private school West Catholic Athletic League, they are referred to as "Super" leagues, with multiple divisions.  There may be as few as two divisions (Santa Clara County Athletic League) or as many as four (Pacific Coast Athletic League).  Every offseason, a meeting is held for each league to determine which of their teams will be placed in the A (top), B (middle), or C (lower) divisions.  The WCAL is always considered an A league.  The automatic bids are generally weighed towards the higher-level leagues/divisions.  At-large selection and seeding is determined by a point system that evaluates a combination of record and strength of schedule.  I can go more in depth on that upon request, but I'll leave it simple for the time being.

There are five overall divisions.  The top three are Open divisions and only teams from A league/divisions are automatically placed in them.  The bottom two are for teams from B and C divisions, however a champion from a B division could possibly petition into one of the Open division, displacing the lowest point-earning team down to D-IV or D-V.  There are eight teams in each division.  Once the field is selected the eight largest Open schools are placed in Open D-I.  The next largest in Open D-II and the smallest in Open D-III.  The larger eight B/C teams are placed in D-IV and the smaller eight go into D-V.

What confuses people is that the champions of D-IV and D-V are not eligible for NorCal regional games.  Instead, the top two playoff point earning runner-ups take those slots.  While this is common for the state basketball tourney, it isn't for football.  However, upon closer inspection, the reason why this is in place is that the B/C teams were complaining about having to face the mid-sized and powerful private school in the playoffs.  The CCS told them that they could have their own playoff brackets, but they'd have to give up their state aspirations, to which the schools/leagues agreed.  Last year, the two runner-up teams advanced to, and won state divisional titles.

1.  St. Francis (Open D-II):  Most significant win was against Notre Dame, from southern California, but a recent win over Valley Christian currently holds the most local impact.  That is explained just below.  The Lancers played quite well in a loss to De La Salle early in the year, but has since lost their starting QB for the year with a torn ACL.  So far, their strong defense has prevented them from dropping any additional games.

2.  Valley Christian (Open D-II):  The Warriors have two losses, one to open the season against Wilcox and recently by 4 points to St. Francis in a defensive slugfest.  The game that puts them at #2 in the section for me took place last week against Serra, which resulted in a resounding win.

3.  Wilcox (Open D-II):  Although the Chargers scored significant wins over Valley Christian and Palo Alto, they also had a very confusing close game against an up-and-down Los Gatos squad.  Valley Christian's big win over Serra and overall better SoS puts Wilcox down to #3, in my opinion.  That said, due to the CCS playoff point system, they are projected to be the #1 seed in what will easily be the toughest bracket in the section.

4.  Serra (Open D-II):  Prior to the game against Valley Christian, the Padres were looking a lot like the defending state D-2AA champions from a year ago.  The shocking 37-6 loss calls a repeat into heavy question.  Still, the magnitude of their other wins and a close loss to Pittsburg tenuously keeps them at #4.  They'll finish the season against St. Francis.

5.  Palo Alto (Open D-I):  Positions 5 and 6 could easily filled by any of three different teams, but I'll go with the Vikings as their only loss has been to Wilcox.  Their best win was against McClymonds.  For me, they are the current front-runners in Open D-I, but they will get significant challenges from two other teams.

6.  Aptos (Open D-III):  This could have gone to Menlo-Atherton, but the Bears took a loss to Palma, who the Mariners will play in two weeks.  I have Aptos favored in that game by a couple of scores.  Undefeated at 8-0, they'll likely be facing Salinas for the outright Pacific Coast Athletic League title at the end of the regular season.

 

Overall NorCal Top 10

1.  De La Salle - had big win over Folsom to open the year

2.  Folsom - most explosive offense in NorCal

3.  Liberty - could legitimately challenge DLS, but wish they had scheduled up more in non-league

4.  Clayton Valley Charter - traditional black and blue team, win over Pittsburg made sense after I saw the Pirates play

5.  Del Oro - lacking huge win, waiting for them to face Folsom

6.  St. Francis - monster defense will have to continue shoulder the load

7.  Pittsburg - close game against Serra pushes them below St. Francis for the time being

8.  Monterey Trail - will have to wait until the playoffs to see how good this team really is

9.  Cardinal Newman - possibly their best team since the state finalist of 2006

10.  Valley Christian - last time they played Cardinal Newman, they blew them out in the NorCal D-2A regional

 

You’re funny. DLS is “vulnerable”? To who? They beat BG, Folsom, St. Francis, CC...and would’ve skunked Buchannon had Hale not gone out on the first drive of the second half. 28-14 at half. 3 points the rest of the way for DLS without Jones. 31-24 Final. I love him, but he’s not Hale. In their last 10 quarters including tonight (its halftime at SrV), they’ve out scored MV, Foothill, and SRV 151-3. Those teams are terrible so I’m not gonna prop em up like some people prop up Folsom’s hyper -improvemevt because they’re shellacking Rocklin and Whitney. But what I do know is that Hale is getting more experience every week. 

In my opinion DLS is not gonna come close to losing until the Open. They’re still gonna give somebody a good game. Be it SJB, MD or Cem10. You heard it here. And Folsom and their “most explosive offense in NorCal...as long as they’re not playing DLS” will demolish some SoCal D2 slappy.

But seriously. Overall great rundown. Thanks for putting in the time!👍

[BraceFace69]

How is Clayton number 4 when they lost to Antioch....

[Cal 14]

43 minutes ago, BraceFace69 said:

How is Clayton number 4 when they lost to Antioch....

Maybe you're right... Antioch should be higher.

 

Wait... the Panthers lost to Freedom.  Freedom should be higher.

 

Oh damn, Falcons lost to Pittsburg.  Yeah, Pitt should be higher.

 

Um, whoops... Pitt lost to Clayton Valley.

 

Well, looks like in the situation where we don't have nice daisy chains, I just have to go with who I think is better... CVC.

Besides, it's far more likely that the Ugly Eagles will get into the NCS Open Division than the Pirates, Panthers, or Falcons.

[BraceFace69]

35 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Maybe you're right... Antioch should be higher.

 

Wait... the Panthers lost to Freedom.  Freedom should be higher.

 

Oh damn, Falcons lost to Pittsburg.  Yeah, Pitt should be higher.

 

Um, whoops... Pitt lost to Clayton Valley.

 

Well, looks like in the situation where we don't have nice daisy chains, I just have to go with who I think is better... CVC.

Besides, it's far more likely that the Ugly Eagles will get into the NCS Open Division than the Pirates, Panthers, or Falcons.

First game and triple over time versus losing by one point.....

[ThunderRam]

5 hours ago, BraceFace69 said:

First game and triple over time versus losing by one point.....

 

If you did the work @Cal 14 is doing and created your own weekly write up, you could rank the teams any way you see fit. But CAL explained that he believes CVC is better. Simple as that.

[ThunderRam]

15 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

I have Liberty winning.

 

Good call. I thought they'd win too. I was actually surprised when I saw the final score with how close it got. Once Liberty was up 17-7, I thought they might end up with an easier W.

[ThunderRam]

Exactly as I figured, braceface. Thanks for outing yourself. 

[AztecPadre]

On 10/20/2018 at 2:54 AM, ThunderRam said:

 

Good call. I thought they'd win too. I was actually surprised when I saw the final score with how close it got. Once Liberty was up 17-7, I thought they might end up with an easier W.

Yeah, that game sounded like it was a great one.  Wish I could have seen it. 

[Pops]

On 10/19/2018 at 8:30 PM, BraceFace69 said:

How is Clayton number 4 when they lost to Antioch....

they beat Pittsburg

[ECHS05]

53 minutes ago, Pops said:

they beat Pittsburg

You gotta think it was a fluke... Or atleast wouldn't happen again at this point. Right?

[Pops]

56 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

You gotta think it was a fluke... Or atleast wouldn't happen again at this point. Right?

I think Pittsburg is the better team 

I don’t think the delta is so great that I’d call it a fluke 

think pitt wins 7 or 8 of 10

[AztecPadre]

38 minutes ago, Pops said:

I think Pittsburg is the better team 

I don’t think the delta is so great that I’d call it a fluke 

think pitt wins 7 or 8 of 10

Didnt pitt lose their QB again?

[BraceFace69]

It took clayton 2 OTs to win. 

Antioch beat Clayton in regulation. 

A wins a win I get it but what happens Saturday if Pitt beats down Antioch by 3-4 TDS? Do they get the 3?

 

Clayton schedule vs Top 100 CA teams:

Pitt

 

Pittsburg schedule vs top 100 CA teams:

Clayton

CC

Serra

Freedom

st. Mary’s 

 

clayton plays that schedule they’d most likely lose to every team besides St. Mary’s. 

[Ararar]

SJS top 20

 

1. Folsom (1) 8-1

2. Del Oro (2) 9-0

3. Monterey Trail (3) 9-0

4. Placer (4) 9-0

5. Inderkum (5) 9-0

6. Capital Christian (7) 9-0

7. Sheldon (8) 8-1

8. Granite Bay (16) 4-5

9. Jesuit (9) 6-3

10. Oak Ridge (6) 6-3

11. Grant (11) 4-5

12. Elk Grove (12) 5-4

13. Antelope (15) 5-4

14. Colfax (14) 9-0

15. Bear River (11) 8-1

16. Center (14) 7-2

17. Rio Linda (17) 7-2

18. Ponderosa (18) 6-3

19. Casa Roble (19) 8-1

20. Woodcreek (-) 7-2

 

[Pops]

27 minutes ago, Ararar said:

SJS top 20

 

1. Folsom (1) 8-1

2. Del Oro (2) 9-0

3. Monterey Trail (3) 9-0

4. Placer (4) 9-0

5. Inderkum (5) 9-0

6. Capital Christian (7) 9-0

7. Sheldon (8) 8-1

8. Granite Bay (16) 4-5

9. Jesuit (9) 6-3

10. Oak Ridge (6) 6-3

11. Grant (11) 4-5

12. Elk Grove (12) 5-4

13. Antelope (15) 5-4

14. Colfax (14) 9-0

15. Bear River (11) 8-1

16. Center (14) 7-2

17. Rio Linda (17) 7-2

18. Ponderosa (18) 6-3

19. Casa Roble (19) 8-1

20. Woodcreek (-) 7-2

 

Where is central catholic?

[Ararar]

22 minutes ago, Pops said:

Where is central catholic?

Talk to Joe Davidson it’s his SacBee ratings 

[Cossacks]

1 hour ago, Pops said:

Where is central catholic?

In Modesto. Not really the greater Sac area.

[AztecPadre]

16 minutes ago, Cossacks said:

In Modesto. Not really the greater Sac area.

I thought they were in the SJS though?  Either way, never been a fan of JD.  He reminds me of the southern kat ES.

[Cossacks]

1 hour ago, AztecPadre said:

I thought they were in the SJS though?  Either way, never been a fan of JD.  He reminds me of the southern kat ES.

I don’t think Modesto is part of the Sac Bee area for their polls. So it looks pretty accurate. You never see Palma or Monterey Area  teams in the chronicle polls either.

I think JD does a good job of trying to promote the prep scene, but it would be nice to see an original thought now and then and not piggyback others. ES is just terrible. Mitch Stephens does a good job IMO.