OT-Georgia Folk!!!

[concha]

He's at 50.1% with Clinton stronghold DeKalb (+19% Clinton) now spent.

It's coming down to Fulton County which went to Trump +2.5%.

He may drop below 50% as the last Cobb results come in (Cobb = strong Trump).

[HawgGoneIt]

51 minutes ago, Rufus69 said:

He better win this without a runoff.  And it's kinda funny you'd have a problem with the money.

Koch brothers mean anything to you?

You can thank Citizens United.....

 

 

Rufus>>

I guess if we try to follow the money, we can find out where it really comes from. Seems like a lot of small donors putting money in the tank for Ossoff and some weird D.C. Super Pac in the tank for the republicans. 

Weird right? 

 

 

 

Earlier Tuesday evening, Handel mentioned that Ossoff’s lead is “what happens when you have $9 million, most of it from out of Georgia.”

Let’s take a quick look at that money, courtesy of the nonprofit Issue One, which advocates for campaign finance reform:

Ossoff indeed reported fundraising a staggering $8.3 million earlier this month, as we previously reported. Issue One estimates that nearly two-thirds of the money raised across all 18 candidates in the 6th District race went to Ossoff, and two-thirds of that dough was from small donors.

Separately, outside groups have poured just shy of $8 million into the race, roughly 60 percent of which from conservative groups attacking Ossoff, Issue One says. A third of all outside money spent in the race came from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a D.C. super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan. Read their full report here.

 

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/18/live-updates-georgias-6th-district-special-election/

[concha]

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2017/04/outside-groups-pour-8-2-million-into-georgia-6th/

 

Quote

Frontrunner and first-time candidate Jon Ossoff raised a startling $8.2 million in the just over three months he’s been in the race — an amount that puts him at No. 11 all-time in funds raised by House candidates in an entire cycle. More than 60 percent of that money came from small donations of $200 and under, with help from a fundraising push by the liberal Daily Kos; 95 percent came from donors outside his district and 80 percent from outside the state.

 

He's spent about 3x his next closest competitor.

[HawgGoneIt]

13 minutes ago, concha said:

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2017/04/outside-groups-pour-8-2-million-into-georgia-6th/

 

 

He's spent about 3x his next closest competitor.

 

 

• $7.9 million is the amount of money that outside groups have spent in the GA-06 special election. 

• $4.7 million is the amount of money that conservative groups have spent attacking Democrat Jon Ossoff in the GA-06 special election. 

• $2.7 million is the amount the top super PAC — the Congressional Leadership Fund, whose donors include oil company Chevron and private prison company GEO Group — spent in the race. 

• Roughly 75 percent is the portion of outside spending that has come from just three groups — the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, the National Republican Congressional Committee and nonprofit advocacy group Ending Spending Inc. 

• 27 is the number of outside groups that have spent money on ads in the GA-06 special election.

• $13 million is the approximate amount of money that all GA-06 candidates combined to raise through late March.

• $8.3 million is the amount of money that Democrat Jon Ossoff alone raised for his campaign through late March.

• 67 percent is the portion of Democrat Jon Ossoff’s war chest that came from small-dollar donors giving $200 or less, through late March.

(Source: Issue One analysis of campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission)

[HawgGoneIt]

Interesting stuff. 

 

Small donors versus big super pacs. 

The question is, does this tell us anything about the current atmosphere? Small donors put together more money than the super pacs came up with. 

[concha]

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

 

 

• $13 million is the approximate amount of money that all GA-06 candidates combined to raise through late March.

• $8.3 million is the amount of money that Democrat Jon Ossoff alone raised for his campaign through late March.

• 67 percent is the portion of Democrat Jon Ossoff’s war chest that came from small-dollar donors giving $200 or less, through late March.

(Source: Issue One analysis of campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission)

And 95% of Ossoff's money is non-district and 80% non-Georgia.

Look at his individual contributions:

 

And $7.7M of Ossoff's money came through the efforts of ActBlue, a liberal donation hub. Just 6% of this guy's money is from Georgia. 

 

[HawgGoneIt]

Just now, concha said:

And 95% of Ossoff's money is non-district and 80% non-Georgia.

Look at his individual contributions:

 

And $7.7M of Ossoff's money came through the efforts of ActBlue, a liberal donation hub. Just 6% of this guy's money is from Georgia. 

 

seems like a tit for a tat to me... If we are having Paul Ryan's group dumping over 2 million in negative ads, and other groups from D.C. dumping another 2-3 million, I can't find the problem with small donors organizing to battle that. 

What would be really telling is if Karen Handel raised 7 million on her own or with help of small donors. Instead the D.C. Super pacs had to come to the rescue. 

[concha]

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

seems like a tit for a tat to me... If we are having Paul Ryan's group dumping over 2 million in negative ads, and other groups from D.C. dumping another 2-3 million, I can't find the problem with small donors organizing to battle that. 

What would be really telling is if Karen Handel raised 7 million on her own or with help of small donors. Instead the D.C. Super pacs had to come to the rescue. 

What are Republicans to do when an aggressive liberal fund-raising effort dumps $7.7M of overwhelmingly non-Georgia money in the pocket of one guy?

 

What would truly be telling is if this came down to local, in-district money.

Ossoff would have had just 5% of the war chest that has poured in from outside Georgia. Nobody would even have the slightest clue who he is. 

[HawgGoneIt]

Just now, concha said:

What are Republicans to do when an aggressive liberal fund-raising effort dumps $7.7M of overwhelmingly non-Georgia money in the pocket of one guy?

 

What would truly be telling is if this came down to local, in-district money.

Ossoff would have had just 5% of the war chest that has poured in from outside Georgia. Nobody would even have the slightest clue who he is. 

 

Maybe.

I still say it's a referendum on Trump. Bob Gray was the Trump advocate and...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[concha]

Anyway, barring a surprise he's predicted to finish mid-40s.

It will be interesting to see if the Dems are willing to pour in more money to a guy who couldn't win with a historic war chest while the Pubs have a single candidate to coalesce around.

[HawgGoneIt]

And I do agree about local races should come down to local funding.

However, this actually has national implications, so the small donor money countrywide makes pretty good sense in reality. And shows where the energy is currently. 

[concha]

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

And I do agree about local races should come down to local funding.

However, this actually has national implications, so the small donor money countrywide makes pretty good sense in reality. And shows where the energy is currently. 

I'm happy to see the Dems pour more money down the schneid.

FYI, Trump fundraising is going very well.  

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-posts-42-million-in-huge-first-quarter-fundraising-haul/article/2620356

Quote

 

President Trump has raised more than $42 million in the first quarter of 2017 for his 2020 re-election bid, outpacing his predecessor's donations by two and a half times.

Trump raked in $42.6 million between the Republican National Party and two joint fundraising committees from Jan. 1 through March 31. Former President Barack Obama and his Democratic counterparts raised $15.8 million in the first quarter of his first term in 2009, according to new Federal Election Commission filings and party officials.

The majority of donations were $200 or less and flowed in from email solicitations to support Trump's agenda.

 

 

[Bormio]

Looks like he is headed for around 47.5%.  Total D vote just over 48%.  Not in the bag for R's, but Dems gotta be disappointed.  Probably won't help D turnout in the runoff and his money advantage will likely shrink.  Been some close elections over the years in GA-6, Newt had a couple close calls.

[ORabidOne]

On 4/17/2017 at 5:51 PM, AztecPadre said:

Don't forget to get out and rock the vote for Jon Ossoff!!!! 

Unbelievable how a CARPETBAGGER is eligible to run in a district he doesn't even live in!

[ORabidOne]

3 hours ago, Bormio said:

Looks like he is headed for around 47.5%.  Total D vote just over 48%.  Not in the bag for R's, but Dems gotta be disappointed.  Probably won't help D turnout in the runoff and his money advantage will likely shrink.  Been some close elections over the years in GA-6, Newt had a couple close calls.

Voter turnout will be VASTLY better for the Elephants in June, when other races are at stake!

[Rufus69]

2 hours ago, ORabidOne said:

Unbelievable how a CARPETBAGGER is eligible to run in a district he doesn't even live in!

Chase did it in 2014 and 2015 !!!!!

He ran and threw.

 

 

Rufus>>

[HawgGoneIt]

Ossoff finished with 48.1 percent

Edwards (D) 0.26

Slotin (D) 0.25

Quigg (D) 0.16

Keatley (D) 0.12

 

Democrats finished 1 tenth off of 49% and this is with the president twitlering over the last several days and the big D.C. super pacs pouring 4 million in hate mail and negative ads against Osoff. 

Karen Handel could lose this in the runoff. She has failed a few times at running for different seats already. 

 

 

 

And of course right on cue, the president takes credit for the "big R" win even though it is likely him that nearly costed the seat for the republicans to begin with. Disconnected with reality much?

 

[zulu1128]

HGI reading into this election like it's the last text from a guy who never called again.

Handel isn't going to lose the runoff. It won't even be that close...9-10 points at minimum. While we're on the subject of "disconnected from reality much" and all...

[concha]

10 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

HGI reading into this election like it's the last text from a guy who never called again.

Handel isn't going to lose the runoff. It won't even be that close...9-10 points at minimum. While we're on the subject of "disconnected from reality much" and all...

I'm wondering if the Dems just continue to throw money around like monkeys tossing turds.

Ossoff now has to face a single opponent who will be much better funded, and it was pretty obvious the Dems were hoping and praying for the outright win to avoid the runoff.

He'll get pounded with "Liberal Pelosi Democrat funded overwhelmingly by California and New York who doesn't even live in the district". 

I predict he goes down as a $15M failure.  If you drop $15M or so on one guy in a single congressional race and still lose, you can't feel good about your prospects...

[Rufus69]

6 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

HGI reading into this election like it's the last text from a guy who never called again.

Handel isn't going to lose the runoff. It won't even be that close...8-9 points at minimum. While we're on the subject of "disconnected from reality much" and all...

You're probably right about Handel winning.  But Lime Sink sees the spread more in the 53-47 range.  She's not that popular.  But the Phants will come out in force to back her.  Bet this put a scare into Trumpy and the Group.

 

 

Rufus>>

[zulu1128]

5 minutes ago, Rufus69 said:

You're probably right about Handel winning.  But Lime Sink sees the spread more in the 53-47 range.  She's not that popular.  But the Phants will come out in force to back her.  Bet this put a scare into Trumpy and the Group.

 

 

Rufus>>

Lime Sink should probably brush up on their local political acumen...or lay off the 'shine.

As far as a "scare," Trumpy and the group have zero concern about losing the House in 2018. Less than zero, really.

The only 2018 question worth discussing is how large a Senate majority they end up with.

[Rufus69]

6 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

Lime Sink should probably brush up on their local political acumen...or lay off the 'shine.

As far as a "scare," Trumpy and the group have zero concern about losing the House in 2018. Less than zero, really.

The only 2018 question worth discussing is how large a Senate majority they end up with.

Famous last words.....

 

 

Rufus>>

[concha]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/democrats-georgia-ossoff-237348

 

Quote

Democrats begin to wonder: When do we win?
For all the roiling anger and energy at the grassroots, the party still fell short in Georgia and Kansas. And Democratic prospects in upcoming elections aren't promising.

Quote

Now, with Ossoff falling short of an outright win despite an unprecedented surge of campaign cash and national attention — in a district which Hillary Clinton lost by just one point in 2016 — comes the potential for another round of finger-pointing within the party. The worry: that if operatives and voters continue their practice of quietly blaming each other for losses, as they did after a narrow defeat outside of Wichita last week, the current level of runaway enthusiasm and budding trust in the national party leadership could sputter out long before the 2018 midterms.

 

[Fred]

I'm just really pissed with Trump for pulling Tom Price into his cabinet.  Just when I thought we would have some peace from all the campaign ads, we have a special election that is headed to a runoff.  Crud!  This will go on into June.  What's the number of the White House?  I need to call and give him fits about this!

 

 

[Rufus69]

1 hour ago, Fred said:

I'm just really pissed with Trump for pulling Tom Price into his cabinet.  Just when I thought we would have some peace from all the campaign ads, we have a special election that is headed to a runoff.  Crud!  This will go on into June.  What's the number of the White House?  I need to call and give him fits about this!

 

 

Fred...I thought you knew.  Trumpy is a TWEETER...(Smile).  tweet him.

 

 

Rufus>>