Atticus Finch Posted September 2, 2020 Report Share Posted September 2, 2020 5 hours ago, zulu1128 said: I think we can all stipulate that Biden will likely win the popular vote. 🤷♂️ zulu1128 forgetting that his fellow travelers are dipshits. 😄 5 hours ago, Blueliner said: Calling my shot. Trump is going to win the pop.vote as well...not that bit matters as mentioned. But it will be a strong statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zulu1128 Posted September 2, 2020 Report Share Posted September 2, 2020 42 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: zulu1128 forgetting that his fellow travelers are dipshits. 😄 LOL...congrats on another big popular vote "win," I guess. 🤷♂️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Biden has a .1 lead on betting odds .1 1/10 of 1 percent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 A few Fox News likely voter polls out yesterday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Rasmussen PA is a tie Trump has 27% of the black vote in PA If that holds across the country he wins easily Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Rasmussen PA is a tie Trump has 27% of the black vote in PA If that holds across the country he wins easily Polling is all over the place because 1) some variability is inherent and 2) no one is sure what the electorate will look like. People take raw data and then “correct” for what they assume the electorate will look like (number of D,R and I). Those assumptions can have a large impact on the polling results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: Polling is all over the place because 1) some variability is inherent and 2) no one is sure what the electorate will look like. People take raw data and then “correct” for what they assume the electorate will look like (number of D,R and I). Those assumptions can have a large impact on the polling results. Were still 2 months out. People will start paying attention more now into October Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 NC monmouth poll biden +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 40 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Rasmussen PA is a tie Trump has 27% of the black vote in PA If that holds across the country he wins easily 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Florida Quinnipiac poll Biden +3 PA biden +8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Trafalgar Florida trump +3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 7, 2020 Report Share Posted September 7, 2020 Rasmussen 1,000 LV of Wisconsin (Sept. 1-2), Biden +8 Morning Consult 763 LV of Wisconsin (Aug. 27 - Sept. 5), Biden +6 YouGov 978 LV of Wisconsin (Sept. 2-4), Biden +6 Univ. of Texas at Tyler 978 LV of Texas, Trump +2 (TX Senate: Cornyn +11) Looks like Trump's tactics in Wisconsin are not working. If he focused on calming the situation instead of throwing blame everywhere, he'd likely be showing better. Wisconsin was not polled by major firms in 2016 and the smaller polls were way off, but the polls now properly weigh non-college educated whites. So these numbers are probably pretty close to current trends in Wisconsin. It's rare Rasmussen finds that much slant towards the Dem in a swing state (usually Trump gets an extra 1.5 - 2% in a Rasmussen poll compared to the rest of the field). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 7, 2020 Report Share Posted September 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, DownSouth said: Looks like Trump's tactics in Wisconsin are not working. If he focused on calming the situation instead of throwing blame everywhere, he'd likely be showing better. The irony of Trump is that if he was more measured and more dedicated to solving problems then he'd get credit in places like Wisconsin or on issues like COVID-19. But if he was like that then his base wouldn't be as rabid or supportive of him. They like him precisely because he's a flippant dipshit who doesn't understand how to handle situations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 7, 2020 Report Share Posted September 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: The irony of Trump is that if he was more measured and more dedicated to solving problems then he'd get credit in places like Wisconsin or on issues like COVID-19. But if he was like that then his base wouldn't be as rabid or supportive of him. They like him precisely because he's a flippant dipshit who doesn't understand how to handle situations. He'd be crushing Biden if he hadn't been such a conspiracy minded/ snake oil hydroxy salesman for so long with COVID. Had he let the economy stay shut for an extra month, encouraged masks, and used the Defense Production Act earlier (instead of continually just saying he'd use it), and organized a better test response (instead of saying it's overrated) - Biden would have no chance. Not much Biden could do aside from stay home for a few months, and had Trump been competent he'd be getting praised by the whole country and probably be up almost 10%. Had Trump (the supposed great deal maker) brought the Congress together to put together a great extension on unemployment benefits that would save mortgages and evictions and peoples bank accounts while the pandemic is still going - he probably would have won a bunch more lower income Dem leaning voters. As you said though, the base wouldn't be so whipped into a frenzy (they'd still vote for him though), and here he is, as the incumbent - having to hope he can repeat the same incredibly narrow way he won 4 years ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2020 Texas trump +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2020 New Mexico biden +15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 @HSFBfan let this fall to the second page. Probably because that polls like this are becoming more common. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ A+ Marist poll has Biden +9. It's not a likely outcome but it means that Biden is certainly in the lead by some amount. These dopes have been too busy bragging about a tied poll in Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 70% of Republicans, 60% of Democrats Say People Lie When Taking Polls https://www.newsweek.com/70-republicans-60-democrats-say-people-lie-when-taking-polls-1529841 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Atticus Finch said: @HSFBfan let this fall to the second page. Probably because that polls like this are becoming more common. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ A+ Marist poll has Biden +9. It's not a likely outcome but it means that Biden is certainly in the lead by some amount. These dopes have been too busy bragging about a tied poll in Florida. On 10/9/16, Marist had Clinton +12 in Pennsylvania Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 I didnt have the time to keep it going I also haven't seen a likely voter poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 Top line on a poll is highly influenced by estimated partisan breakdown of turnout. Screw that up, numbers become shit. Internals are often more revealing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, Bormio said: Top line on a poll is highly influenced by estimated partisan breakdown of turnout. Screw that up, numbers become shit. Internals are often more revealing. But are they being honest about their internal polls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted September 10, 2020 Report Share Posted September 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: But are they being honest about their internal polls The internals are not as subject to partisan weighting. More reflective of actual data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: The internals are not as subject to partisan weighting. More reflective of actual data Than according to trump hes winning everything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 10, 2020 Report Share Posted September 10, 2020 12 hours ago, Bormio said: On 10/9/16, Marist had Clinton +12 in Pennsylvania But, but 2016! 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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